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Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

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Comments

  • #62
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    In regards to your comment earlier about a possible downgrade. How’s it looking since ?


  • #63
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    In regards to your comment earlier about a possible downgrade. How’s it looking since ?

    12Zs rolling out over the next two hours. Nothing to worry about anyway


  • #64
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    In regards to your comment earlier about a possible downgrade. How’s it looking since ?

    No change. It's a possibility. No more than that. Favored outcome is still the severe end of the spectrum.

    We'll know more shortly.


  • #65
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    No change. It's a possibility. No more than that. Favored outcome is still the severe end of the spectrum.

    We'll know more shortly.

    Is this the ICON your talking about Kermit?


  • #66
    bogman_bass
    Registered Users Posts: 5,057 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    Excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by a sea fetch

    And while we're at it what is a streamer?


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  • #67
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    bogman_bass wrote: »
    Excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by a sea fetch

    And while we're at it what is a streamer?

    Just google "lake effect snow" and think of the Irish sea as your lake and you will get all your answers


  • #68
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,722 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    bogman_bass wrote: »
    Excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by a sea fetch

    And while we're at it what is a streamer?

    Sea fetch is the length of sea the air mass travels over, the longer it is the greater for lake effect snow when it comes to the Irish sea in our case.

    A streamer is like a continuous line of showers generated from the same spot, caused by the lake effect snow scenario.


  • #69
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Is this the ICON your talking about Kermit?

    ICON and NAVGEM.

    Both picked up sudden more progressive retrogression of high pressure toward Greenland this morning. Still a cold outcome, no doubt about that, but not quite as severe and more marginal overall.

    tempresult_crx5.gif


  • #70
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    ICON and NAVGEM.

    Both picked up sudden more progressive retrogression of high pressure toward Greenland this morning. Still a cold outcome, no doubt about that, but not quite as severe and more marginal overall.

    tempresult_crx5.gif

    Now we don't really want to be hearing the word "marginal" here with a severely cold easterly. If we don't get snow out of this on the east coast next week, I will really give up!!!! However glad you are referring to NAVGEM and ICON models!!!

    For a moment there I thought you were talking about the ECM, GFS and the UKMO! Phew!!!!!

    D


  • #71
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Not that the ICON is worth all that much, but that still depicts a very snowy outcome. Some of the big 3 model runs had hinted at that also yesterday but since 00z they seem more on board with more prolonged cold and windy conditions over a week from now.

    We have the GFS 12z coming out currently too :)


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  • #72
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    lucernarian wrote: »
    Not that the ICON is worth all that much, but that still depicts a very snowy outcome. Some of the big 3 model runs had hinted at that also yesterday but since 00z they seem more on board with more prolonged cold and windy conditions over a week from now.

    We have the GFS 12z coming out currently too :)

    And in fact the 12z ICON is looking much better for cold too


  • #73
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,231 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Sea fetch is the length of sea the air mass travels over, the longer it is the greater for lake effect snow when it comes to the Irish sea in our case.

    A streamer is like a continuous line of showers generated from the same spot, caused by the lake effect snow scenario.

    With the lake effect in operation over the irish sea, is there any chance of more localised lake effect snow to the west of places like Lough Derg, Lough Corrib, Lough Ree etc or are they all much too small in Ireland for that kind of thing?


  • #74
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    With the lake effect in operation over the irish sea, is there any chance of more localised lake effect snow to the west of places like Lough Derg, Lough Corrib, Lough Ree etc or are they all much too small in Ireland for that kind of thing?

    The're too small. I reckon we'll need a fetch of at least 50 km to get showers properly going.


  • #75
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    -10 850 hPa air is reaching Ireland at 6am on Monday going by the latest run:

    GFSOPEU12_66_2.png


  • #76
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I think kermits little worry could be fixed on this run!


  • #77
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    The trend from GFS 12z seems to be an upgrade, I can't really believe how quickly the air is being sent westwards from Russia though. Also heights a built up a little more north from Sunday onwards, and leaves us with a strong and slightly further away Scandi High by t+96.


  • #78
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    To close the topic on the air source of this airmass, its clearly an arctic continental hybrid. Arctic air cooling down over western siberia, then west of the urals before moving towards scandi while retaining a lot of its frigid characteristics. As it stands looks like the most potent easterly/north easterly in decades. Let's see what effects it will bring to the ground.

    111 hrs GFS 12Z

    GFSOPEU12_111_1.png


  • #79
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    UKMO is fantastic. ICON again has a different development but still cold and snowy


  • #80
    LEIN
    Moderators Posts: 9,936 ✭✭✭LEIN


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I think kermits little worry could be fixed on this run!

    Excellent!


  • #81
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    First snow to Louth and Cork at 1pm on Monday!

    72-574UK.GIF?23-12


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  • #82
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Ridiculous at 144 hrs. Going to take a good 10 hour break from model watching I think

    GFSOPEU12_144_1.png


  • #83
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    -15c 850's in even faster on this GFS run, ICON is a marginal improvement and is still very cold but also very different to the other models.

    12_120_ukthickness850.png?cb=13


  • #84
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    12z is perfect. Cold air entrenched over Ireland by Monday. Showers possible from Monday night, increasing into tuesday and wednesday with some nice kinks in the flow, leading to good instability. Thundersnow anyone? :pac:


  • #85
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Quite severe runs from the UKMO and GFS. Plenty of snow particularly in the eastern half of the country, really piling up there. Lake effect, relentless.

    If the ECM is equally severe this evening I'll draw up the forecast for the other thread. Proviso is the 12z ICON model is consistent so there is some uncertainty there.


    gfs-0-126.png?12

    gfs-1-126.png?12


  • #86
    Surinam
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭Surinam


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Quite severe runs from the UKMO and GFS. Plenty of snow particularly in the eastern half of the country, really piling up there. Lake effect, relentless.

    If the ECM is equally severe this evening I'll draw up the forecast for the other thread. Proviso is the 12z ICON model is consistent so there is some uncertainty there.


    gfs-0-126.png?12

    gfs-1-126.png?12

    Agree with cautious approach but honest question: when have we ever cared about what the ICON is showing? I don't recall it getting so much consideration before.


  • #87
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    That second chart is the most wonderful thing I have seen on boards.

    Theres purples near us

    Its a day after tomorrow scenario except...

    Its the day after the day after the day after the day after tomorrow


  • #88
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Why are people getting hung up on the ICON. Kermit the frog is just suffering late stage nerves.:P The Icon is cannon fodder compared to the big three- which all show snow heaven for a few days. As someone said we may not see charts like these again for a long, long, time. For those who drink, if the ECM show what we want this evening(which i think it will), then it's time to open the champagne.


  • #89
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    ARPEGE is on board too-

    arpegeeur-0-114.png?12


  • #90
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    503 DAM, wow that is some depth of cold.

    12_138_ukthickness.png?cb=44


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  • #91
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    503 DAM, wow that is some depth of cold.

    12_138_ukthickness.png?cb=44

    My God to think we were marvelling at the depth of cold over Canada a few weeks ago, we are not that far off it ourselves. it's really incredible stuff.


This discussion has been closed.
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