Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

fullstop · 01-03-2020 12:30am

What’s the situation if airlines start cancelling flights? Do they refund passengers? Does travel insurance cover it? Have a few trips booked over the next couple of months so getting slightly concerned.

Charles Babbage · 01-03-2020 2:00am

Airlines will cut and reduce flights, which might suit as some of their staff will be quarantined or sick.
They'll have to refund booked passengers.
If suitable tests can be devised then airline staff may be tested regularly.
Airlines may have obligations in terms of cleaning planes and that kind of thing.

The only company to benefit may be Boeing, which can't produce 737s anyway and who just might get their act together for the rebound.

[Deleted User] · 01-03-2020 9:37am

NH2013 wrote: »

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

You aren’t being flippant at all.

I wish people would take a breath and slow down. Do some research and look at the facts. As shown above and repeated elsewhere, but generally ignored by people on social media, the numbers are tiny. 1.5 billion Chinese but only 70000 got it with 98% of those recovering. The percentage of Chinese that died out of total population is tiny. Nearly 700000 worldwide died from the flu last year.

This is hysteria being propelled by social media, I’m seriously thinking they need to rethink the name for social media personally, it is becoming dangerous.

The one person that has it here in Ireland and the one in the north will likely make full recoveries, will likely only feel like they have a cold or the flu but yeah let’s panic and stop air travel.

Why stop air travel for this ? We don’t stop air travel for the flu when it kills significantly more. Yes there isn’t a vaccine but this will likely fade out as the weather improves if it is seasonal, so by next winter it will be ready.

The guidelines set out say washing your hands is the best way to prevent the spread. Washing hands not using anti bacterial soap, anti bacterial soap won’t kill a virus the clue is in the name. I’ve seen loads of people milling in to anti bacterial soaps in the last week, yes it’s good for general hygiene but pointless against C19.

EchoIndia · 01-03-2020 3:54pm

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

One airline deciding to cancel services does not reflect a US Government position and is stated by American as being due to reduced demand.

Ireland is taking measures having regard to the science. No doubt if the current approach needs to be reviewed, it will be.

[Deleted User] · 01-03-2020 4:52pm

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

I see the body of my post washed right over you.

Protect us from what ? something that will kill less than the seasonal flu, why aren't we cancelling flights when there is an outbreak of the flu somewhere ?

Flights will likely be reduced or cancelled purely through demand rather than national policy. Should we be stopping movement of people in and out of Cork because of the mumps outbreak down there ?

One person has Coronavirus in Ireland....one.

NSAman · 01-03-2020 5:01pm

Might the Airlines actually properly clean and disinfect their aircraft more? Even letting air into the aircraft?

The turn around times of twenty minutes for some are crazy, little time to change the air in the cabin and certainly NOT enough time to clean an aircraft.

The amount of times I get off a plane only to have a cold/flu/chest infection a few days later is unsettling..now this?

I know I get laughed at by colleagues but I bring antibacterial wipes and wipe all the surfaces before I sit down, I bring hand sanitizer with me everywhere on planes.

Locker10a · 01-03-2020 5:02pm

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

Do you think canceling flights to one region will stop it! Laughable!
If I’m Irish and on holidays I’m northern Italy and my flight is cancelled do you think that will stop me coming home! Or do you think I’ll just travel to another point of departure and fly from there.... go figure

[Deleted User] · 01-03-2020 5:14pm

19 people died in Ireland in 2019 from the flu.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/flu-season-deaths-ireland-2019-21189972

650,000-700,000 died worldwide in 2019.

Should we be locking the world down.

Blut2 · 01-03-2020 5:16pm

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

The three best things Ireland/Dublin airport can do currently in regards to travel are:

1) Place billboards/signs all over the airport reminding people to cough into their elbows and regularly wash their hands (and showing how to wash your hands fully/properly)
2) Make regular announcements of the same
3) Place hand sanitizer dispensers all over the airport, in the way you'd find in a hospital ward

Cancelling flights at this stage is just PR/optics. Unless theres a complete Wuhan style lockdown (which a democratic government won't be able to impose) people will just use other methods of transport to get where they need to go, as other posters have mentioned.

Tenzor07 · 01-03-2020 7:56pm

Well, things aren't getting any better for flights in and out of Italy. I can guess if there's no reduction in the number of CV cases then very very few flights will operate out of the North of Italy at all, and a reduction in flights from places like Rome and Naples....

Ryanair look like they will cancel flights out of BGY to Georgia:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2020/03/01/ryanair-grounds-italy-georgia-flights-amid-coronavirus-slump/#8fdd5a25ddac

And in true Ryanair fashion will find a way to wriggle out of paying an compensation at all!

In an email sent to existing customers on February 29th, Ryanair claimed that Georgia’s government had asked it to scale back its presence on the Milan-Tbilisi route due to concerns over coronavirus. As a consequence, it said, flight frequencies on that route will drop from four to two per week, effective March 8th.

By blaming Georgia’s government for the latest cancelations, Ryanair appears to be signaling that it will not honor compensation claims under European consumer protection law EU261.

That regulation states that passengers who are scheduled to fly to or from the European Union on any route exceeding 1,500km are entitled to €400 compensation if their flight is canceled within two weeks of the date of travel. Airlines are only exempt from paying compensation if they can prove that "extraordinary circumstances" beyond their control led to the cancelation.

Ryanair invoked this terminology in its email to customers, stating that it “apologises for the inconvenience caused by this restriction which is completely outside of our control”.

Yet the Georgian government has not publicly announced any restrictions on Italian passenger flights.

Charles Babbage · 02-03-2020 12:58am

Deleted User wrote: »

You aren’t being flippant at all.

I wish people would take a breath and slow down. Do some research and look at the facts. As shown above and repeated elsewhere, but generally ignored by people on social media, the numbers are tiny. 1.5 billion Chinese but only 70000 got it with 98% of those recovering. The percentage of Chinese that died out of total population is tiny. Nearly 700000 worldwide died from the flu last year.

You have demolished your own argument here, as the % of Chinese dying has only occurred after measures which would impact on the conduct of airline business, you cannot use this as a justification for not having some measures.

[Deleted User] · 02-03-2020 10:48am

Charles Babbage wrote: »

You have demolished your own argument here, as the % of Chinese dying has only occurred after measures which would impact on the conduct of airline business, you cannot use this as a justification for not having some measures.

There is a massive difference here that you are ignoring.

The Chinese were unaware of their outbreak until people started presenting at hospitals and dying soon after. At that point Covid 19 had spread in to the population and to visitors. Mortality rates will always be higher at source of the outbreak before people are aware of the issue.

That is not the same as here. We are aware of Covid 19 and people are taking personal responsibility and local health agencies have informed the public to be aware. That is international standard best practice, as WHO has determined.

You cannot ignore the fact they were unaware of the virus and that we are aware of it.

I take my lead from people and organisations who are best placed with knowledge, education and experience in dealing with these issues. Not from panic and hysteria being spread by people on social media. Your opinion is your opinion as is mine. We disagree and that way I expect it will stay. I will no longer be adding to this topic as it is a waste of time as individuals seem to have their minds set on what they believe is the best way forward.

Charles Babbage · 02-03-2020 12:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a massive difference here that you are ignoring.

The Chinese were unaware of their outbreak until people started presenting at hospitals and dying soon after. At that point Covid 19 had spread in to the population and to visitors. Mortality rates will always be higher at source of the outbreak before people are aware of the issue.

That is not the same as here. We are aware of Covid 19 and people are taking personal responsibility and local health agencies have informed the public to be aware. That is international standard best practice, as WHO has determined.

You cannot ignore the fact they were unaware of the virus and that we are aware of it.

Yes,but if you contend that "it is only the flu" then awareness won't make much difference as people have always been aware of flu. This requires additional attention that regular flu does not require.

I take my lead from people and organisations who are best placed with knowledge, education and experience in dealing with these issues. Not from panic and hysteria being spread by people on social media. Your opinion is your opinion as is mine. We disagree and that way I expect it will stay. I will no longer be adding to this topic as it is a waste of time as individuals seem to have their minds set on what they believe is the best way forward.

I can only agree that the WHO or CDC is a better guide than boards.ie. However these bodies do not think that it is "only the flu".

PinOnTheRight · 02-03-2020 10:06pm

BA and Ryanair cancelling further flights.

"BA is cancelling 226 flights from 16-28 March from London to destinations including New York, Italy, France, Austria, Belgium, Germany and Ireland."

Ryanair is cutting back 25% of Italian flights.

Nijmegen · 03-03-2020 12:13am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/02/airline-industry-braced-for-major-threat-from-coronavirus-turmoil

This feels like a big old recession in the making, irrespective of the death rate of the virus.

wetoutside19 · 03-03-2020 8:50am

Don't forget all the Irish based leasing firms who are leveraged to high ratios, they are in for a serious tough time.

What has saved them with customer cash issues in the past is to take the asset back and there is a queue of other customers willing to take it, unlikely to be the case any longer with all the groundings / flight cuts.

GM228 · 03-03-2020 12:48pm

https://eddiehobbs.com/ireland-playing-jenga-with-national-finances/

Eddie Hobbs/Joe Gills very brief take on Coronavirus and the airline industry.

Airlines Lead Economic Contagion

For example, in comment over the last weekend a noted aviation expert Mr Joe Gill Director of Corporate Broking Goodbody posted “The global aviation complex is undergoing a major Black Swan event that will force a raft of airline closures and consolidation in the leasing industry. Not since 9/11 have I seen such a dramatic and rapid change in the revenue outlook for global airlines and as the facts unfold in coming days and weeks the consequences for this capital-intensive industry will become clear. Governments will be tapped to backstop Flag Carriers and major restructurings are inevitable as the industry resets” Do bear in mind that Ireland is a huge hub in the global aircraft leasing market and this veteran writer is at the crossroads of an informed network of information.

Blut2 · 03-03-2020 1:13pm

wetoutside19 wrote: »

Don't forget all the Irish based leasing firms who are leveraged to high ratios, they are in for a serious tough time.

What has saved them with customer cash issues in the past is to take the asset back and there is a queue of other customers willing to take it, unlikely to be the case any longer with all the groundings / flight cuts.

With the 737MAX orders still indefinitely on hold leaving many airlines short at the moment I'd imagine the leasing firms shouldn't have too much trouble moving on any repossessed air-frames, depending on the models in question.

The cornonavirus is likely to blow over a lot sooner than the MAX gets both flight clearance and delivered to airlines in numbers.

Jack1985 · 03-03-2020 1:21pm

Would think EI will be reconsidering the Summer schedule - there is a fall off in demand for Italy (passenger numbers below 30 on some flights as low as single digits) and demand is slowing to Europe from the US, reduced frequencies are inevitable and some of the fleet being parked up for the next few months can’t be out of the question to protect costs.

I would imagine all new intakes (some in training) will be deferred.

trellheim · 03-03-2020 4:19pm

is there daily numbers available through airports or is it only monthly reporting ? Its usually from around now that we see the huge increase.

(although these last couple of weeks have been on completely rammed airplanes).

smurfjed · 03-03-2020 4:24pm

Ryanair issued a letter today asking for crews in Italy to take unpaid leave, failing that, redundancies may follow.

Tenger · 04-03-2020 9:48am

This definitely has echos of 2001/02.
Headlines such as US carriers halting flights to Korea, China, Italy. Other stoppages could follow as outbreaks occur in other nations. (too late for the USA as its already there though)
BA, FR cancelling 25% of capacity to affected regions.
Cathay grounding 50% of its fleet.
Singapore implementing cost reduction measures.

In terms of vulnerability Im guessing the Mid East could see an very rapid outbreak, purely based on its status as a travel hub (Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi)

Tenger · 04-03-2020 12:02pm

A mate sent me this link, its more US/global based but might be worth a 3-4 min read;
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/coronavirus-effect-staggers-the-aviation-industry-as-air-travel-shrivels/

billy few mates · 04-03-2020 9:13pm

One move airlines should seriously consider is absolutely insisting that passengers remain in their allocated seats once they board the aircraft in case there are any cases where the patient travelled by air and they need to contact the passengers who were seated near them.
On the radio the other day the health minister said that they only contacted the passengers in the couple of seat rows around where the victim was seated.
I took a flight last week where there was an awful lot of seat swapping going on. I was asked if I would swap with someone who wanted to sit beside their relation, I declined because it would have meant swapping from an aisle seat to a middle seat but the cabin crew facilitated by asking several other people to move around so these people (who hadn't actually paid for allocated seating) could be accommodated.
There's no chance they'd be able to find out who was sitting where without contacting every single person who was on the flight if the need arose.

Locker10a · 04-03-2020 10:02pm

billy few mates wrote: »

One move airlines should seriously consider is absolutely insisting that passengers remain in their allocated seats once they board the aircraft in case there are any cases where the patient travelled by air and they need to contact the passengers who were seated near them.
On the radio the other day the health minister said that they only contacted the passengers in the couple of seat rows around where the victim was seated.
I took a flight last week where there was an awful lot of seat swapping going on. I was asked if I would swap with someone who wanted to sit beside their relation, I declined because it would have meant swapping from an aisle seat to a middle seat but the cabin crew facilitated by asking several other people to move around so these people (who hadn't actually paid for allocated seating) could be accommodated.
There's no chance they'd be able to find out who was sitting where without contacting every single person who was on the flight if the need arose.

Nice theory.... wouldn’t practically work though

billy few mates · 04-03-2020 11:10pm

Locker10a wrote: »

Nice theory.... wouldn’t practically work though

Why not...?

Tenger · 04-03-2020 11:19pm

Because people are often belligerent feckers.
“That whole row is empty, I want to sit there”

Locker10a · 04-03-2020 11:28pm

billy few mates wrote: »

Why not...?

Have you ever met the general public!!!!

Coil Kilcrea · 04-03-2020 11:57pm

I think Billy is right. If we’re to defeat this sinister, invisible monster, we’re going to have to make some serious changes. Joe Public needs to take responsibility for the common good and if that means a few adjustments, then that’s what we should do.

The alternative is altogether terrifying.

So I’m good with anything that offers us a chance to contain it.

cson · 05-03-2020 4:13am

GM228 wrote: »

https://eddiehobbs.com/ireland-playing-jenga-with-national-finances/

Eddie Hobbs/Joe Gills very brief take on Coronavirus and the airline industry.

2001 is vastly different from 2020.

The scaremongering over this flu is insane. It's quite literally a self induced global recession.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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