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November 2013 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    Jaysus I missed this completely. First one since I started doing them I think.


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After one week, the stats are as follows:

    IMT stands on 6.6

    MAX is probably yet to come (nothing over 13 yet)
    MIN so far is -2.6 at Markree on 4th

    PRC is 88%

    SUN is 97%


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    #34
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

    Interesting!


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    #35
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    MAX 15.6 Johnstown yesterday.


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    #36
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT was 7.4 after 17th but is probably 7.0 now as it was estimated to be 7.2 after Monday. It may level off around 6 at some point around the weekend.

    PRC is a bit on the low side at 73%

    SUN continues a little above normal at about 115% although the last seven days were generally cloudy.

    This morning failed to beat the earlier qualifying low (it was no colder than zero C at 06z) for our bonus question (would need -2 or lower) but I suspect this will happen within a few days for a new result there.


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    #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I just noticed there was a new entry from Pauloconn on the 8th ... I will add this to the scoring table and give it a generous 30 point penalty, since it won't affect any other contestants.

    Pauloconn __ (-30) ___ 6.3 __ 14.4 __ --2.3 __ 112 __ 106 __ 6 (Bal, Bel)


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    #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I was expecting to update the bonus question this morning, but found the lowest qualifying temperature at 0600h was only -1 at Ballyhaise. Meanwhile it was -5 at Gurteen so we'll definitely have a new MIN.


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Under the bonus question rules, we have a new qualifier. Shannon at -2 was coldest at 0600h and Malin reported 8.

    So it's Sha/Mal 10 for the current bonus answer. This could change again.

    It was actually as cold as -4 at Casement around midnight and 0100h then it warmed up to +2. Meanwhile Ballyhaise and Oak Park were also at -2 earlier in the night and warmed up a bit at 0600h.


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    #40
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Gurteen -5.7 yesterday.


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    #41
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Yesterday's Weather
    Malin: Max 9.5, Min 7.1
    Gurteen: Max 5.7, Min -5.6
    Gurteen didn't make it to Bonus Question!


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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Nope, I added Ballyhaise instead (to the IMT five), Gurteen is usually about the same as Mullingar so I didn't think about adding it. Not sure what it was reading at 06 but probably colder than Shannon was.

    The bonus for December will be the usual one about max and min on Christmas Day plus an extra 3-pt bonus for snowfall anywhere in Ireland on the 25th.

    I will open the thread tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest.


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    #43
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT stands on 6.5 C and isn't likely to move much ... PRC is lower than most if not all forecasts and seems likely to come in around 60% of normal despite a few stations having near normal totals ... SUN not as closely watched by yours truly but seems around normal. Looking at the forecasts the scores are not going to be astronomical (sort of like comet ISON in a way, dim but almost extinct).

    With Sunday being the first, look for scores on Monday 2nd (late afternoonish).

    And please consider entering both the December and winter-season contests, threads open for your use.


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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    November's final damages are:

    IMT __ 6.5 C

    MAX __ 15.6 (11th, Johnstown Castle)

    MIN __ --5.7 (22nd, Gurteen)

    PRC __ 57%

    SUN __ 100%

    see earlier post for bonus question answers (10 deg, Shannon/Malin)

    Scoring to follow as I struggle mightily to become fully awake. This was actually the effect of Nov 2013 on most of us, I suspect. :)


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    #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for November



    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Bon __ TOTALS
    ______________________________________________________________

    talkabout _________ 18 _ 18 _ 14* _ 01* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 68
    traecy.1 __________ 19 _ 16 _ 19 __ 01* _ 09 _ 03,00 ___ 67
    John mac _________ 15 _ 18 _ 11* _ 08* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 65
    M.T. Cranium ______ 15 _ 13 _ 11* _ 11* _ 08 _ 07,00 ___ 65
    rikand ____________ 17 _ 16 _ 16* _ 01* _ 10 _ 05,00 ___ 65
    Strasser __________ 13 _ 15 _ 11* _ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 58
    Joe Public (-5) _____ 07 _ 13 _ 14* _ 10* _ 10 _ 07,00 _ 61-5 = 56
    kindredspirit _______ 11 _ 14 _ 06* _ 08* _ 09 _ 07,00 ___ 55
    dacogawa _________ 21 _ 15 _ 06* _ 00 __ 05 _ 07,00 ___ 54

    Con Sensus _______ 15 _ 16 _ 00 __ 06* __ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 54

    seafields __________ 16 _ 16 _ 04* _ 01* _ 10 _ 05,00 ___ 52
    omicron ___________17 _ 04 _ 04* _ 09* _ 10 _ 07,01 ___ 52
    dasa29 ___________ 20 _ 04 _ 07* _ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 50
    H2UMrsRobinson ____09 _ 06 _ 12* _ 13* _ 07 _ 00,01 ___ 48
    mickger844posts ___ 13 _ 15 _ 04* _ 01* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 46
    nilhg _____________ 09 _ 14 _ 01* _ 06* _ 09 _ 07,00 ___ 46
    Jpmarn ___________ 11 _ 11 _ 00 __ 06* _ 09 _ 07,01 ___ 45
    okla ______________15 _ 15 _ 00 __ 02* _ 08 _ 05,00 ___ 45
    rameire (-5) ________18 _ 13 _ 00 __ 06* _ 08 _ 05,00 _ 50-5 = 45
    200 motels ________ 15 _ 19 _ 00 __ 00 __ 05 _ 05,00 ___ 44
    Tae laidir __________09 _ 14 _ 01* _ 02* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 43
    lostinashford (-5) ___21 _ 04 _ 01* _ 09* _ 09 _ 02,00 _ 46-5 = 41
    Bsal ______________09 _ 14 _ 04* _ 00 __ 08 _ 03,00 ___ 38
    DOCARCH _________ 15 _ 00 _ 00 __ 06* _ 08 _ 08,00 ___ 37
    waterways ________ 08 _ 02 _ 08* _ 01* _ 09 _ 08,00 ___ 36
    harps ___ (-5) _____ 14 _ 07 _ 00 __ 01* _ 08 _ 07,00 _ 37-5 = 32
    musicmental85 _____ 18 _ 00 _ 02* _ 12* _ 00 _ 00,00 ___ 32
    delw ______________00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 08* _ 09 _ 01,01 ___ 23
    snowstreams (-35) __24 _ 14 _ 01* _ 01* _ 09 _ 02,00 _ 51-35 = 16
    pauldry ___________ 02 _ 00 _ 00 __ 03* _ 08 _ 01,00 ___ 14

    Pauloconn (late) ____ 23 _ 08 _ 00 __ 02* _ 09 _ 02,00 ___ 44 (10)

    ________________________

    (edit 8:40 p.m., table now sorted ... scores for MIN and PRC were boosted by minimum progression rule where * appears ... with the bonus, nobody got the double bonus points for guessing both locations involved, in fact only one person picked Shannon to be coldest and Malin was not favoured to be mildest, so a few people got one point there, otherwise your scores are out of eight for the differential. Ties were numerous, scoring generous. Pauloconn's score is for informational purposes only, he was technically too late to post a forecast. The next item on the agenda is the annual update followed by the much-unanticipated four-seasons award FINAL ANNOUNCEMENT (expect these around 10 pm and 11 pm if I don't get any actual work in the meantime).

    Congrats to talkabout, tracey.1, rikand & John mac for leading the way this month.


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Annual scoring report

    rank/
    best 9 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ Total


    01 560 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 __ 628 (2)

    01 555 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 __ 636 (1)
    02 537 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 __ 611 (2)
    03 529 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 __ 581 (4)
    04 524 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 __ 600 (3)
    05 500 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- __ 524 (15)

    06 499 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 __ 521 (16t)
    07 497 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67__ 547 (8)
    08 491 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 __ 563 (5)
    09 488 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 __ 560 (6)
    10 487 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 __ 553 (7)

    11 481 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 __ 502 (21)
    12 479 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 __ 525 (11t)
    13 478 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 __ 525 (11t)
    14 475 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 __ 521 (16t)
    15 473 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 __ 534 (10)

    16 472 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ -- __ 499 (22)
    17 467 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 __ 525 (11t)
    18 458 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 __ 514 (20)
    19 457 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 __ 535 (9)
    19 457 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 __ 515 (19)

    21 453 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 __ 525 (11t)
    21 453 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ -- _ 69 _ 45 __ 470 (25)
    23 452 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 __ 517 (18)
    24 444 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 __ 472 (24)
    25 437 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 __ 451 (26)

    26 434 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 __ 490 (23)
    26 434 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- __ 448 (27)
    28 412 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 __ 428 (29)
    29 401 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 __ 443 (28)
    30 394 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 __ 407 (30)

    31 368 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 __ 400 (31)
    32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- _ ---__ 279 (32)


    Three or four entries __

    Hammer Archer _________ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 215 (33)
    Bejubby _______________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- _ -- __ 176 (34)
    Rebelbrowser ___________ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 154 (35)
    dexter647 ______________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- _ -- __ 149 (36)
    Gonzo _________________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- _ -- __ 135 (37)
    Rocky Bay _____________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- ___ 100 (40)

    ____________________________________________

    Two entries

    jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
    nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
    Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
    Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
    MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
    clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

    (one entry)

    Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
    Danno 65 (Jan)
    howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
    Tazio 58 (June)
    E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
    Deank 53 (Feb)
    "plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
    singers 53 (Aug)
    blackbird 49 (Aug)
    baraca 50 (Feb)
    NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
    BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
    musicmental85 .. 32 (Nov)
    Pauloconn 10 (Nov)
    ___________________________________________________


    So, our nemesis Con Sensus has moved back into the lead in the main contest (Boards award) although Tae laidir maintains a lead over Con and everyone else in the total score (MTC) contest. Ranks in each can be found in the first entry of each row (Boards contest) and the last entry (MTC contest). Ties are noted by the letter t.

    Next up, the Four seasons award, once I find the last instalment and do a bit of extra adding of scores for months S_O_N above.


  • Options
    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Autumn seasonal points

    traecy.1 __________ 189 (10 pt)
    Tae laidir _________ 183 ( 7 pt)
    M.T. Cranium ______ 174 (6 pt)
    mickger844posts ___ 173 (5 pt)
    kindred spirit ______ 170 (4 pt)
    200motels ________ 169 (3 pt)
    dacogawa _________ 167 (2 pt)
    Joe Public _________ 162 (1 pt)
    harps ____________ 160
    jpmarn ___________ 160
    waterways ________ 160
    John Mac _________ 159
    DOCARCH ________ 153
    talkabout _________ 152
    Rikand ___________ 151
    H2UMrs Robinson __ 151

    Well done traecy.1 for winning the autumn 2013 points total.

    This feeds into the previous three-season table to give these final standings in the

    Four Seasons Award ( point totals )
    ______________________________________________

    Bsal (0,6,10,0) _______ 16

    harps (7,2,4,0) _______ 13
    kindredspirit (1,2,6,4)__ 13
    Tae laidir (2,3,1,7) ____ 13
    homolumo (10,0,0,0)___ 10
    dasa29 (0,10,0,0) _____ 10
    traecy.1 (0,0,0,10) ____ 10
    Jerry Seinfeld (4,5,0,0)__ 9
    delw (0,7,0,0) _________ 7
    John Mac (0,0,7,0) _____ 7
    DOCARCH (1,1,4,0)_____ 6
    waterways (6,0,0,0) ____ 6
    M.T. Cranium (0,0,0,6) __ 6
    jambofc (5,0,0,0) ______ 5
    nilhg (0,0,5,0) _________ 5
    mickger844p (0,0,0,5) ___ 5
    okla (0,4,0,0) __________ 4
    Pauldry (3,0,0,0)________ 3
    rameire (0,1,2,0) _______ 3
    200 motels (0,0,0,3) ____ 3
    Joe Public (0,0,1,1) _____ 2
    dacogawa (0,0,0,2) _____ 2
    Hammer Archer(1,0,0,0) _ 1
    lostinashford (0,0,1,0) __ 1
    Jpmarn (0,0,1,0) _______ 1

    So, despite being shut out of the autumn points, Bsal takes the Four Seasons Award, with harps, kindredspirit and Tae laidir tied for second. Notice I didn't score Con Sensus, he gets enough awards anyway. :) Bsal gained his victory by scoring well in spring and winning summer.

    An interesting factoid is that all three of the other seasonal champs scored no other points in the other three seasons. Two of our three tied for second (kindredspirit and Tae laidir) were the only forecasters to gain points each season.

    I will probably change the point structure for this award in 2014 (this month starts us off) to give the seasonal winner 15 and then go from 10 down to 1 for the next ten scores. You can see above that some fairly similar scores in autumn were separated by quite a few points.


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