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03-05-2021, 06:19   #31
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for May 2021


FORECASTER ___ (pen) ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Next 21.2+


Danno __________________ 12.1 _ 23.6 _ -2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 30th

Tae laidir ________________11.6 _ 25.0 _ -1.5 _ 118 _ 095 ___ 20th

Joe Public _______________ 11.5 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 15th

john mac ________________11.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 23rd

WesternStorm ____________11.1 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 121 _ 092 ___ 10th

Dasa29 _________________ 11.0 _ 24.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 20th


___ NormaL ______________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13th


Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 25.7 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 13th

Kindred Spirit ____ (-1) ____ 10.9 _ 23.7 _ -1.4 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 18th

Mr stonewall _____________ 10.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.6 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 19th

M.T. Cranium ____________ 10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.5 _ 150 _ 083 ___ 16th

Dacogawa _______________10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.8 _ 142 _ 087 ___ 14th

Artane2002 ______________10.8 _ 23.3 _ -1.8 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 16th


___ Con Sensus __________ 10.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th


Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 23.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 094 ___ 18th

Mr Skinner ______________ 10.6 _ 25.6 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 22nd

waterways _______________10.6 _ 25.2 _ -3.2 _ 128 _ 092 ___ 25th

CirrusBusiness ___________ 10.6 _ 23.2 _ -1.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 26th

DOCARCH _______________10.6 _ 22.3 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 12th

Gonzo _________ (-5) _____10.4 _ 22.6 _ -3.2 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 23rd

200 motels _____ (-5) _____10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.3 _ 111 _ 079 ___ 20th

sryanbruen ______________10.3 _ 22.9 _ -1.1 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 19th

Sunflower3 ______________10.2 _ 23.4 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 21st

Appledrop _______________10.2 _ 22.2 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 23rd

Adam240610 ____ (-4) ____10.1 _ 23.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th

Pauldry _________________ 9.8 _ 22.5 _ -2.3 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22nd

__________________________________________

Two points were added to late penalties if a value below -2.5 C was submitted for MIN

... this is to equalize scoring advantage from the discussion, a larger penalty would be unfair because anyone

had the option of waiting to 0200h to make a reasonably informed forecast.

... anyone who did not appear to benefit from their late submission is not given an extra 2 points late penalty.

___________________________________________

The dates selected for the next temp above 21.2 C ...

10 12 13 14 15 16 16
18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20
21 22 22 23 23 23 25 26 30

If the actual day falls in the middle range above then scores will be 10 minus error of days but with some increase for largest errors

If the actual day is at either end of this range then we'll go with some system of groups of three.

24 forecasts so far, would imagine that might be all this month, but if any really late ones appear, choose either the MIN we know (with this big a late penalty, will just cap the score at 16) or take some lower value if you think it could verify, within 0.4 subject to slight cap also.
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03-05-2021, 10:45   #32
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Markee Castle -2.7 again yesterday.
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03-05-2021, 11:32   #33
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Met Eireann forecasting -3c Wednesday night so could possibly go lower again.
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03-05-2021, 11:36   #34
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Met Eireann forecasting -3c Wednesday night so could possibly go lower again.
Pauldry could you ask Met Eireamn to arrange it to be -3 exactly?

I might get some points then this month after my dismal score of nil points for my min prediction last month!
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06-05-2021, 06:22   #35
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Mt Dillion -4 at 6am.
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06-05-2021, 07:49   #36
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Looks like I could score MIN already on the 6th LOL. Minimum progression required. Will retain the 2 point augmented late penalties as there probably was a slight advantage and the two people getting that will be scoring well on MIN.

Will go with 20, 20, 19, 18 etc, doubling up also at 15, 10 and 5, that should get us down to 1 point for mildest forecast. Ties may make it a bit uneven and I may even things out where the values are not evenly spaced, wait and see on that but otherwise you can pretty much figure out your MIN score now.

Gonzo and waterways (-3.2) to get 20 (Gonzo really 18 due to the augmented late penalty).

Appledrop (-3.0) 19, Danno (-2.8) 18, adam240610 (-2.5) 17 (net 15) JPmarn (-2.5) 17.

MrSkinner (-2.3) 15, Pauldry (-2.3) 15, sunflower3 (-2.2) 14, dasa29, bsal (-2.0) 13.

Artane2002, DOCARCH, dacogawa, Cirrus Business and consensus, (all -1.8) 11.

MrStonewall (-1.6), john mac (-1.6) 8.

M.T.Cranium, tae laidir, Joe Public (all -1.5) 6.

Kindred spirit (-1.4) 4, 200motels (-1.3) 3.

sryanbruen (-1.1) 2, NormaL (-1.0) 2, western storm (0.0) 1.
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06-05-2021, 08:02   #37
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The -4°c report in Roscommon (Mt Dillon) was mentioned on the Radio 1 7.55 weather forecast.
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07-05-2021, 08:14   #38
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Mount Dillon confirmed at -4.0c yesterday.
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07-05-2021, 08:53   #39
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Yes and that will likely be it for May.

Tomorrow 18c!!
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07-05-2021, 17:54   #40
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Full weekly report tomorrow but IMT on 6.6 after six days, and yesterday's average was 4.9, about normal for this time in Jan or Feb.
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07-05-2021, 23:16   #41
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Yes and that will likely be it for May.

Tomorrow 18c!!
19°c has been indicated for the Dublin area on the TV after the RTÉ ONE 9 O’clock News.
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08-05-2021, 07:17   #42
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There appears to be a fairly wide "dry slot" so there may be enough sunshine to boost temperatures to 21.3 and end the suspense -- that 552 dm thickness is making a brief visit. Another scoring task ending ahead of schedule? We shall find out. Would suspect Gurteen or Moorepark might do the business as they will have longer intervals of sunshine possibly.
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08-05-2021, 08:02   #43
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It's currently lashing rain and 6 degrees at Dublin airport.

However it is meant to take up so who knows what will happen.

It is reading 13 degrees at 7am at Moorepark , if that is correct.
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08-05-2021, 19:32   #44
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Turned into a beautiful day eventually in Dublin.

Maxed out at about 18 degrees so April max is not beaten yet.

Great to actually feel the heat of the sun again!
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08-05-2021, 21:21   #45
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After the first week ...

IMT 6.5 C which is 3.8 below normal. That is probably around 7.4 now though.

MAX will be today's value, will edit that in tomorrow (18-19)

MIN was -4.0 and so scoring has already taken place (see previous post).

PRC was 145% at midnight but another 10-15 mm fell earlier today, getting week two off to a healthy start. The amounts so far would probably equate to half the average monthly total.

SUN has made a good start at 130% (878/600).
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