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10-04-2021, 22:02   #46
pauldry
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-4.7c in Dublin Airport new min

Will tonight beat it? Itl be close
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11-04-2021, 02:42   #47
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Currently -3c in Casement n -4c in Baltinglass but a few hours yet. -5c possible in Casement. Forgot maybe Mt Dillon has won the lowest temp yet. Was -3c there last night at midnight
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11-04-2021, 18:38   #48
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Only Casement got as low as -4 on hourlies last night, so probably no new MIN.

The IMT after the 10th was 5.9, est 5.7 after today. The IMT for the 10th was only 2.9 C.
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12-04-2021, 13:27   #49
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Apparently Casement hit -4.7 to tie the MIN we had the previous night.

It has been cold here also, a bit of ice and snow returned on Saturday and it lasted right through the weekend in shady spots, despite highs around 5 C.
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15-04-2021, 19:34   #50
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After two weeks ...

The IMT on 5.8 after a cold second week, average 5.7 (2.8 below normal).

MAX 21.2 and MIN -4.7

PRC still very low, 31% with this past week at 46% of normal.

SUN remains high at 154% with this past week 144% (862/600).

If all aspects returned to normal for the period of today to end of month (and not saying they will) the outcomes would be about like this:

7.0 ___ 21.2 ____ --4.7 ____ 060 ____ 120
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22-04-2021, 21:33   #51
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After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.8, third week 8.7 C just 0.3 below normal.

MAX 21.2, MIN -4.7

PRC still low at 38% of normal, this past week 51% (somewhat closer to normal in west).

SUN has come down to 131% with this past week 84% (502/600).
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26-04-2021, 17:15   #52
Tae laidir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways
Yes, looks like the warmest day was the 1st April. No joking!
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29-04-2021, 19:50   #53
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After four weeks ...

IMT 7.5 after a week of near normal 9.5 average, and will likely finish on 7.4.

MAX 21.2 MIN -4.7

PRC down to 32% of normal with this past week only 12% of normal from showers yesterday (dry before that). PRC may finish around 35%. Scoring assistance has been called in. None of us went below 70%.

SUN is back up to 144% of normal after a very bright week at 182% of normal (1090/600). This will likely finish around 140%, more scoring assistance on the way. However, your boost will likely be cut in half as Danno predicted 140% (rule: minimum progression applied to scoring is 50% when any raw score is within two of maximum for category).

Bonus was of course already settled back around the 5th.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 29-04-2021 at 19:55.
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30-04-2021, 08:34   #54
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Sunshine could finish higher than 144% MT.

The last 2 days very sunny (out West anyways)
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30-04-2021, 11:00   #55
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Should be a pleasurable one for you to score MT.
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01-05-2021, 02:55   #56
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Low hanging fruit basically.
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01-05-2021, 02:59   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Sunshine could finish higher than 144% MT.

The last 2 days very sunny (out West anyways)
Any outcome from 128 to 152 per cent will have the same effect on the scoring, as that's the range for Danno to score at least 8/10 on his 140% forecast. Once that's confirmed, the rest of the scoring will be a half-shot of minimum progression. Danno has 10/10 for sure, I would say, can't be as certain what anyone else will score.

Oh also, I gather Monday is a bank holiday, that means there won't be a Monthly Summary until Wed 5th, which is my only chance to verify the actual sunshine totals unless I spend a day adding them all up myself. My weekly estimates always seem a bit off the mark for some reason, in contrast to the other parameters which usually work out as we thought from tracking them.
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01-05-2021, 12:45   #58
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The IMT did finish on 7.4, and PRC appears to be around 33% of normal. SUN will be up around 150%, the last two days had 85 hours at the six locations, at least 50% above normal so the previous 144% will edge up further.

A MIN of -2.8 at Dublin on 30th gave the existing MIN a bit of a surprise but not that much.

Could probably score the contest now but will get at it later today.
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01-05-2021, 13:37   #59
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Provisional scoring for April 2021


to be confirmed from Monthly Summary due on 5th of May.


FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus _ Totals


M.T. Cranium __________ 24 _ 16 _ 15 _ 13 _ 06 ____ 5 ____ 79

200motels _____________20 _ 18 _ 16 _ 10 _ 03 ____ 8 ____ 75

MrSkinner _____________20 _ 09 _ 15 _ 15 _ 05 ____ 6 ____ 70

sryanbruen ____________21 _ 12 _ 15 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 6 ____ 69

Mr Stonewall ___________10 _ 15 _ 19 _ 15 _ 04 ____ 5 ____ 68

CirrusBusiness _________ 22 _ 07 _ 12 _ 13 _ 02 ___ 11 ____ 67


____ Con Sensus _______ 17 _ 16 _ 11 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 7 ____ 67


Sunflower3 ____________ 17 _ 07 _ 18 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 9 ____ 66

Danno ________________10 _ 13 _ 13 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 5 ____ 65

Adam240610 __________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 9 ____ 65

Jpmarn _______________25 _ 03 _ 11 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 10 ____ 64

Pauldry _______________17 _ 11 _ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 10 ____ 64

Artane2002 ____________13 _ 16 _ 18 _ 04 _ 03 ____ 7 ____ 61

Dacogawa _____________17 _ 17 _ 04 _ 09 _ 04 ___ 10 ____ 61

Joe Public _____________ 17 _ 10 _ 17 _ 08 _ 02 ____ 4 ____ 58

Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____09 _ 18 _ 06 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 7 _59-1=58

DOCARCH _____________20 _ 10 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 7 ____ 54

Appledrop _____________17 _ 18 _ 00 _ 09 _ 01 ____ 7 ____ 52

Bsal __________________13 _ 18 _ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 2 ____ 48


____ NormaL ___________15 _ 13 _ 05 _ 08 _ 03 ____ 4 ____ 48


Dasa29 _______________ 14 _ 00 _ 03 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 12 ____ 42

waterways ______ (-2) __ 16 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 12 _43-2=41

Gonzo ____ (-10) _______22 _ 01 _ 09 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 2 _50-10=40

Tae laidir ______________13 _ 14 _ 00 _ 06 _ 02 ____ 4 ____ 39

john mac ______________13 _ 07 _ 00 _ 07 _ 03 ____ 4 ____ 34

WesternStorm __________00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 11 ____ 33

Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 14 _ 00 _ 03 _ 05 _ 04 ____ 4 _30-3=27

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minimum progression scoring applied to PRC and SUN (scored from 135% but Danno given 10/10, has same effect as the reduced boost I mentioned earlier). PRC was given a generous spread because of so many ties and small differentials, thought it best to equalize the scoring a bit given that we were all quite a distance out from 33% and nobody went really high.


(actual forecasts)


FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Cork 4th max, sun

WesternStorm __________ 9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____ 9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 12.4 _ 5.0

Danno ________________ 8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8.4 _ 5.2

Mr Stonewall ___________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 073 _ 105 ___ 12.3 _ 3.75

john mac ______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

Bsal __________________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 094 _ 110 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0

Artane2002 ____________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

Tae laidir ______________ 8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 _ 108 _ 093 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 8.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

Dasa29 _______________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ 7.0


____ NormaL ___________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.2 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5


waterways ______ (-2) __ 8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

Sunflower3 ____________ 8.2 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ 5.0


____ Con Sensus _______ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.7 _ 5.0


Joe Public _____________ 8.2 _ 22.2 _ -4.4 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

Dacogawa _____________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

Appledrop _____________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 12.3 _ 5.0

Pauldry _______________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -3.4 _ 081 _ 120 ___ 13.0 _ 8.3

Adam240610 ___________8.1 _ 20.2 _ -3.9 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 12.9 _ 6.0

200motels _____________7.9 _ 21.0 _ -4.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 13.4 _ 4.1

DOCARCH _____________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 _ 092 _ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

MrSkinner _____________ 7.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 072 _ 112 ___ 12.0 _ 5.0

sryanbruen ____________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

Gonzo ____ (-10) _______ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

CirrusBusiness __________7.7 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.7 _ 6.5

M.T. Cranium ___________7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5
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01-05-2021, 14:16   #60
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Thanks M.T, I was way off this month.

Thankfully the Max saved me and IMT not too bad but the rest is a write off!
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