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04-12-2020, 08:41   #1
SlowBlowin
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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021

Big strike near Sneem, power out.
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04-12-2020, 09:03   #2
SlowBlowin
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That was some strike, huge power, it was at 8:37 on my CCTV which stayed up for once. There was no storm it just came as a single strike. Someone on here posted a link where you could playback the strike and get more info, anyone know what the site was ?
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04-12-2020, 09:36   #3
Comhra
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlowBlowin View Post
That was some strike, huge power, it was at 8:37 on my CCTV which stayed up for once. There was no storm it just came as a single strike. Someone on here posted a link where you could playback the strike and get more info, anyone know what the site was ?
This one maybe?

https://www.blitzortung.org/en/histo...aps.php?map=12

or this one..

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/tiles/8/120/83.png
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04-12-2020, 09:40   #4
SlowBlowin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Comhra View Post
Thanks for the links.

No it actually gave the estimated power of the strike, I will have to look though some old posts. We get lots of activity up here and this strike really was exceptional.
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04-12-2020, 10:44   #5
SlowBlowin
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Found it here:

https://meteologix.com/ie/lightning/...204-0840z.html

Capture.PNG
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04-12-2020, 13:08   #6
Gaoth Laidir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlowBlowin View Post
There was another negative strike just north of that, which was called a "Sissy mutterer". Great name

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04-12-2020, 13:38   #7
SlowBlowin
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Strangely the "Impressive" strike I was originally talking about was the Sissy Mutterer ! Its was much brighter than the "slammer" that followed it..
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08-12-2020, 21:11   #8
Meteorite58
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ECM has a set of charts on Thurs showing thunderstorm potential, hinting at it the last couple of runs. There will be a passage of an occluded front followed by troughs across Ireland in the afternoon, not particularly heavy on the charts but the ECM showing a fairly high theta E reading with a lot of low level and deep layer shear. Modest CAPE readings which lessen as the front crosses the country. The band of warmer moist air running into colder air. Modest lapse rates but the prediction charts showing thunderstorm potential along the advancing front. Modest upper temperatures. No mention on any forecasts. Wonder is the ECM overcooking this ???
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09-12-2020, 19:11   #9
Meteorite58
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ECM charts going for thunderstorms along the occluded front crossing Ireland from the W tomorrow. Intriguing as no mention in forecasts and little or nothing showing in the other models and maybe the model is overdoing this, can get it wrong but unusual to see it so full on with thunderstorm potential and I am wondering why.

In my limited experience I make out a tongue of relatively high theta e advancing into much colder air, the converging winds and upper winds give a lot of shear and vorticity I suppose helping lift the advancing warm moist air up over the cold air which gives the instability to form thunderstorms ??? Seems to be very little CAPE showing so it looks like the instability is quiet elevated, but again don't know if this is exactly what the model is basing it's thunderstorm potential on.

Any opinions.

As important to know when the models are misreading the situation as when it gets it right.














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09-12-2020, 22:11   #10
bazlers
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Excellant post as always Meteorite. Difficult to say. You could be on to something. Ingredients are there just see how they interact.
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09-12-2020, 23:15   #11
Oscar Bravo
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Shannon Airport TAF forecasting moderate rain between 1pm and 5pm. Certainly wouldnt rule out some thundery bursts. Wind going south westerly as the front passes over.

1013/1017 16015G25KT 3000 RA BKN014
BECMG 1014/1016 22015KT TEMPO 1019/1024 4000 SHRA SCT018CB
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10-12-2020, 15:57   #12
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Nah, nothing overland, didn't even look threatening, quite overcast at times with just light rain here near Tralee, no sign of any convection both from the ground and the Sat pics, must have been overestimating the mid level ability to produce instability because there was next to no ground based CAPE.
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10-12-2020, 16:16   #13
Kutebride
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Pouring rain Meath. There is a unusual glow from the sky. 8 celcius.
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13-12-2020, 10:59   #14
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Met Eireann dropped the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast, a few sferics showing up off the SW and W this morning, some big showers going through here in Kerry, some high cloud tops can be seen on the Sat Pics, will see if a couple of strikes stray onto the coasts, pulse type so probably just the odd strike at best. The Irish sea later ??












http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/f...ate=2020-12-13







Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 13 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 14 Dec 2020

ISSUED 08:30 UTC Sun 13 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Outbreaks of rain will spread erratically northeastwards across the British Isles as a frontal system arrives from the Atlantic. Behind, cold air aloft with reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread relatively warm SSTs to generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE over open waters and coastal districts in the west. Therefore, scattered showers become increasingly likely, initially over Ireland during Sunday afternoon before the risk expands eastwards across Britain through the evening and night, and these will become organised into discrete bands as one or more shortwave troughs swing through the in the broad southwesterly flow aloft. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some line segments will be possible at times with perhaps a low-topped supercell, capable of producing squally winds and the risk of an isolated tornado. The risk of sporadic lightning is greatest near western coasts, and so particular attention is given to the Irish Sea into parts of Wales, NW England and SW Scotland - however the coverage of lightning is not expected to be significant enough to warrant a SLGT.
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13-12-2020, 20:24   #15
spookwoman
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Load of activity off the south east coast
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