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11-11-2019, 07:58   #5431
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 11 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 November 2019

-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be quite variable from one location to another as most systems will become banded which means large differences likely, the higher amounts (25 to 50 per cent above normal) are likely to be in central Leinster towards east Munster, while somewhat further north and west there could be perhaps half that much.
-- Sunshine will also be rather variable as persistent bands will be cloudy most of the time, so where rainfall is above normal sunshine will likely be quite low, while other places see perhaps 25% more than average for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery and cold with passing showers, more frequent in the west, but sometimes extending across the country into the east coast counties as well. Some showers will have hail and thunder. Coatings of hail or sleet may be encountered in some places especially over higher terrain. Winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr except 80 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic counties. Highs 5 to 8 C but feeling colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT will see a gradual reduction in both the wind and the coverage area of showers, but what is left over may become wintry in places. Lows -2 to +3 C with scattered frosts likely, some black ice conditions may develop by midnight over rural roads.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with more isolated showers more confined to east Ulster and north Leinster. Winds will continue to be northwest until afternoon when a light and variable regime develops briefly, but wind speeds will be down from today's blustery conditions. Highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will see bands of rain with some sleet especially over higher terrain, as low pressure slowly organizes to the west and moves into Munster. This will result in winds turning more to the east and northeast for most regions except the south coast. Some bands of rain will be heavy and persistent, but other places may be between bands and not picking up as much accumulating rain. Central Leinster to east Munster may be the favoured location for the heavier rain bands, with sleet or even snow developing over hilly terrain in that region. Further north and west there may be some areas with just partly cloudy conditions and infrequent showers, but another band of heavier rain may move through north and west Connacht. Winds will become east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Cold and raw with morning lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds will become stronger overnight with some bands perhaps turning wintry at elevations above 250 metres.

THURSDAY will see the windy and unsettled conditions continuing with strong northeast winds backing further to northerly at times. Heavy bands of sea effect streamers are likely in Leinster with mixed forms of precipitation and some thunder and lightning. Snow accumulations are only likely on higher ground but melting snow or sleet could fall closer to sea level. Winds northeast to north 60 to 90 km/hr will add considerable chill to already low temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range.

FRIDAY will become less windy and more settled as bands become isolated and fragmented, although probably in similar locations to the previous two days. Some longer intervals of sunshine will develop. Slight frosts on Friday morning, with sharper and more severe frosts likely Friday night. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud and slightly moderating temperatures near 9 C as a weaker storm system develops and moves through with intervals of rain. Freezing levels will rise somewhat changing any sleet or snow back to rain, but then it will start to turn colder again for Saturday night as winds turn more northwesterly again.

SUNDAY is likely to be breezy and cold with passing showers, some wintry again. Highs only 5 to 7 C.

The outlook for next week calls for quite cold conditions to persist with a few more intervals of rain or sleet in mostly northeasterly winds as a storm track develops to the south of Ireland into France. It probably won't be cold enough for all-out wintry conditions but those may be encountered over higher terrain at times. Temperatures will remain marginal for wintry forms of precipitation in the 5 to 8 C range mostly, with slight frosts at night.

My local weather turned sunny again on Sunday after a very brief interval of light sleet or drizzle before sunrise. This made some of the local higher routes icy in the shade but otherwise it was a dry and relatively pleasant day with highs near 6 C. We got a good view of the rising full moon this evening. The almanac says the full phase occurs on Tuesday at 13:36 hours in your time zone (which is 0536h Tuesday here). We had an extra week of daylight saving time and changed to standard time last weekend here. The governments of western provinces and states want to abolish the time change and go to Pacific daylight saving time year-round (which means dark mornings but a bit of daylight to almost 5:00 p.m. at the winter solstice). I'm not sure if this is going ahead or not, they want to have all Pacific region jurisdictions doing this together to avoid confusion. I don't think it has become an issue anywhere else and I'm not really sure what led to this other than in our laid back part of the world changing the clocks seems to be a lot of work to some of our guiding lights.
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12-11-2019, 08:01   #5432
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Tuesday, 12 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will be 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values for most, closer to average though in south Leinster.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values, although this won't be too evident until the weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring partly cloudy skies to most regions but persistent and locally heavy rain now over east Ulster will drift a bit further south into north Leinster before fragmenting to showers later. Otherwise just a few isolated showers and some places will have a dry day. Staying rather cold with highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be clear at first with local frost, then increasing cloud will remove some of that frost but watch out for black ice on some rural roads in the early morning hours. Rain may approach the west coast towards morning. Lows 1 to 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of rain, rather light for most of the day, then heavier by afternoon, with sleet developing on higher terrain and snow on summits. Rather cold with temperatures peaking at 6 to 8 C before dropping back slightly as rain becomes heavier. Winds somewhat variable until an easterly flow develops by afternoon spreading north to south as low pressure re-establishes a new centre off the south Leinster coast. Overnight rain or sleet will continue with moderate northeast winds, and 10-20 mm rain may accumulate by Thursday morning.

THURSDAY will see the rain or sleet becoming more banded and fed by streamers forming over the Irish Sea and the north Atlantic north of Connacht. These bands will become rather persistent and some areas will get some heavy and possibly mixed falls of rain, sleet and wet snow. Other areas will be drier and may get some brighter intervals. South Leinster and western Mayo will be two areas most likely to see the heavier precipitation. Cold and windy, morning lows 2 to 4 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northeast 50 to 80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become brighter and more settled, but quite cold. A few remnant streamers will likely continue but they will become rather weak and isolated near the coast. Sleet or snow showers could result especially on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Morning lows 0 to 2 C and afternoon highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds will be less blustery and will fall off to near calm by evening. This combined with some clearing will lead to a sharp frost on Friday night that will set in early.

SATURDAY morning will have a sharp frost with morning lows -5 to -2 C. Some sunshine early in the day followed by cloud and outbreaks of mixed rain, sleet and wet snow. Staying very cold for mid-November, highs only 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will become largely dry again with isolated wintry showers and cold temperatures between -2 C and 5 C.

The outlook for next week looks rather unsettled and while it may stay colder than average, the temperatures will likely come up somewhat towards 7 or 8 C for typical highs, and there will be less frosty conditions overnight.

My local weather continues to be remarkably dry for November, if rather cloudy as usual, and temperatures near normal for here (5 C).
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13-11-2019, 07:28   #5433
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Wednesday, 13 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which at the present time would be around 11 C daytime and 4 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, possibly a bit above in south Leinster.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values to 25% above normal in parts of the south and west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain turning somewhat heavier in the afternoon, and temperatures steady or slowly falling in the range of 6 to 8 C. Higher elevations especially in south Leinster and parts of Connacht could see slushy accumulations of wet snow or sleet. Winds rather light and variable for most of the day, but becoming northeast 40 to 60 km/hr across the north late this afternoon, and northerly in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT rain or sleet will continue and the northeast to north winds will spread over most other regions, adding a chill to temperatures around 2 or 3 C. Total rainfalls will reach 20-25 mm in some parts.

THURSDAY the rain will begin to concentrate into bands running northeast-southwest across parts of Leinster and north-west Connacht, west Ulster. Some other regions will become mostly dry with some sunny breaks developing. Winds will continue rather strong northeast to north at about 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs will only reach 5 to 7 C. Some of the precipitation will become mixed with thunder possible as well.

FRIDAY will become mostly sunny with the stronger winds abating especially by afternoon and evening. Showers will become more isolated although more likely to be wintry where they do occur. Morning lows about -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 7 C. Friday evening will become frosty soon after dark and roads could become icy in some rural areas overnight.

SATURDAY will start out with a sharp frost and morning lows -5 to -2 C. Increasing higher cloud will dim the early sunshine then some sleety rain could develop in some western counties. Highs only 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and showers, some mixed on higher ground. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook for next week is unsettled with the risk of some rather persistent and heavy rainfalls developing. It may turn a few degrees milder and closer to seasonal averages.

My local weather brought a small covering of wet snow in the morning, perhaps 2-3 cm mixed with a bit of drizzle, and it was rather foggy with low cloud ceilings. Temperatures were about 2 or 3 C most of the day. The rain snow line dropped down to about 700 metres so lower parts of the local valleys had light rain instead of the snow. Meanwhile it has turned very cold in eastern Canada and the northeast U.S., Midwest states and plains states with some record low temperatures reported.
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14-11-2019, 07:52   #5434
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Thursday, 14 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal amounts, although it may be fairly frequent in small amounts. Central counties could run as low as 25% of normal with some coastal fringes closer to normal, guidance shows several heavy falls over nearby ocean areas so any inaccuracy in that modelling could bring some of those heavier amounts onto land.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to as much as 50 per cent above normal values in some parts. Variations will be due to rather weak weather systems spreading patchy cloud across various portions of the country, no real trends appear.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite windy and cold with generally dry conditions except for some isolated bands of mixed precipitation hitting parts of the southeast and Connacht, west Ulster and a few parts of west Munster. Winds will be northerly 40 to 70 km/hr adding considerable chill to the already cold temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range.

TONIGHT will become less windy and skies will vary from partly cloudy to clear at times, with patchy frost likely, lows -2 to +3 C. Still a few isolated remnants of the earlier bands of showers may be encountered in parts of Wicklow, Wexford, Mayo and Donegal mostly.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with fairly generous amounts of sunshine and with lighter winds it may feel considerably warmer than today although temperatures will be in a similar range with highs 6 to 9 C. A sharp frost is likely to develop by evening lasting well beyond sunrise on Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night will be -5 to -2 C in many areas and near 1 C in more protected coastal and urban locations.

SATURDAY will bring cloudy skies into western counties after a sharp to severe frost in most areas of the country away from the southwest coast. It will remain partly cloudy further east. Some light rain is likely to spread into coastal areas of the west but is not expected to become too widespread. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, some sleety accumulations again on higher terrain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 near sea level and 4 to 6 C higher up.

NEXT WEEK in general looks unsettled with outbreaks of rain, the main thrust of the moisture is further east across the Irish Sea, western England and Wales, but any change to that could bring heavier amounts into some parts of Leinster and east Ulster. It will be slightly milder than the current regime but by no means a mild spell by November standards, highs may be closer to normal values at about 9 to 11 C. Frost will still be possible with any brief clearing at night but there will likely be enough cloud around to keep most nights frost-free in most places.

My local weather on Wednesday remained cloudy but no new precipitation occurred despite some mist caused by the gradual thawing of yesterday's light snowfall which is now only evident in a few spots, looking very much like winter is about to set in with 90% of the leaves down from deciduous trees (we have a 50-50 mixture of deciduous and coniferous, but one variety, the tamarack, retains its leaves and changes colour in autumn to golden yellow, can't decide which family to join apparently). This is a ski resort area but the local mountains have only a very thin snow cover mostly the remnants of what fell in a freak event six weeks ago. Toronto airport has had more snow than the local ski hill which must be a first for modern times. (in a normal winter season a snow cover of 1 to 2 metres is normal in the local higher terrain and 50 to 75 cms in town, so we're told). This is probably why you might be getting your forecasts from Arizona at some point around January. I like to see heavy snowfalls and then say so long farewell, perhaps return to watch them melt away in late March.
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15-11-2019, 07:54   #5435
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Friday, 15 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal amounts, although it may be fairly frequent in small amounts. Central counties could run as low as 25% of normal with some coastal fringes closer to normal, guidance shows several heavy falls over nearby ocean areas so any inaccuracy in that modelling could bring some of those heavier amounts onto land.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to as much as 50 per cent above normal values in some parts. Variations will be due to rather weak weather systems spreading patchy cloud across various portions of the country, no real trends appear.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, with fairly generous amounts of sunshine and with lighter winds it may feel a bit warmer than yesterday although temperatures will be in a similar range with highs 6 to 9 C. A sharp frost is likely to develop by evening. A few streamers will continue to appear near both the southeast and northwest coastal fringes, if they extend on to land they will bring mixed forms of precipitation depending mostly on elevation, with hail and thunder being possible in any more robust showers, but this is likely to be isolated to just a few locations. The northerly winds will continue to moderate after some gusty intervals this morning and the wind directions will become more variable later in the day.

TONIGHT will feature some clear and frosty conditions, with locally icy road conditions possible especially where untreated in rural areas, and the frost will probably be rather slow to clear on Saturday morning, after lows of -5 to -1 C for most. Just a few coastal and urban areas may escape seeing any frost or sub-freezing air temperatures.

SATURDAY will bring cloudy skies into western counties after a sharp to severe frost in most areas of the country away from the southwest coast. It will remain partly cloudy further east. Some light rain is likely to spread into coastal areas of the west but is not expected to become too widespread. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, some sleety accumulations again on higher terrain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 near sea level and 4 to 6 C higher up.

NEXT WEEK in general looks unsettled with outbreaks of rain, the main thrust of the moisture is further east across the Irish Sea, western England and Wales, but any change to that could bring heavier amounts into some parts of Leinster and east Ulster. It will be slightly milder than the current regime but by no means a mild spell by November standards, highs may be closer to normal values at about 9 to 11 C. Frost will still be possible with any brief clearing at night but there will likely be enough cloud around to keep most nights frost-free in most places.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with some sun getting through the layers at times, and it was around 6 C with light winds, so not too wintry feeling yet although the local hills show extensive frost on the trees just above our elevation and that seemed to persist in the rather moist conditions with misty low cloud over most of the hills to our south and west. It's worth noting that Toronto (even downtown) broke records for cold in the past few days including one from 1873, and that despite the urban heat island that has grown considerably over that elapsed time (from zero to perhaps 2.5 to 3 C deg in its impact on cold temperatures) so nowadays the city observing site breaks very few old records for cold. The last time that it broke two consecutive ones would be back in January 1994 which was a brutally cold month there. (the record value was -11 C for the 13th). Some may wonder, if it's that cold in eastern North America, won't that doom any chances of blocking or cold weather in Europe? Not necessarily, there seem to be two different patterns that can develop, one is for the jet stream to get very activated by the cold from North America giving way to a mild southwest flow, but another configuration is a generally depressed jet with weak mid-oceanic ridge development allowing both continents to get cold at the same time. Might be a bit of both outcomes in the long run. I have noticed in my research a strong tendency for record warmth to occur at similar times although I could point to a few counter-examples in either direction. When it turned very mild in December 2015, eastern North America was also setting warm records.
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16-11-2019, 07:33   #5436
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Saturday, 16 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal but there will be a gradual upward trend after mid-week.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but with persistent light rain later in the period it may seem like a higher amount.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, but will have to do well in the first half of the interval to achieve that, as it will become quite cloudy later.

FORECASTS

TODAY the scattered frost and some fog or mist will all be rather slow to clear where they have developed, would suggest caution in any long distance travel as you may encounter a few areas of slippery road conditions and poor visibility. However, other places will be frost free and cloud will be mainly at higher levels, so expect a mixture of conditions, with light winds not much to mix the atmosphere and get anything very organized, but the trends will be towards more cloud in the west in particular and perhaps a few outbreaks of light sleety rain, which could mix with wet snow on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Conditions will remain dry in parts of the south and east. Temperatures will be rather variable with a few spots remaining quite cold all day (3 to 6 C) and other places warming up a bit to 8 or 9 C.

TONIGHT there will be further outbreaks of light rain or sleet, becoming rather showery before it dissipates later in the night. With some clearing possible, pockets of frost may redevelop. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SUNDAY there will be a mixture of cloud and filtered sunshine through higher cloud layers, and a few isolated showers. Highs around 7 to 9 C with generally light northwesterly winds developing.

MONDAY morning will have another fairly sharp frost with some fog and mist around lower parts of the central counties, and the day will generally be dry but cloudy with temperatures around 7 or 8 C at best. Some rain will develop by the overnight hours into Tuesday morning, about 5 to 10 mm is expected, with lows by Tuesday morning near 3 C.

TUESDAY will see rain tapering to showers then a partial clearing, not much change in temperature likely, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook for the second half of the week is rather unsettled but rain may be more persistent than heavy, with rather weak weather systems promoting a light to moderate easterly flow most of the time, but not much warmth being imported from any direction so that temperatures are likely to get stuck in the 6 to 9 C range.

My local weather started out with a wet snowfall of about 3 or 4 cms that changed over to a misty rain as somewhat warmer air is moving into our region from the Pacific. The freezing level has probably risen to about 1500 meters since being close to us this morning. Ground temperatures have responded by rising to about 4 or 5 C and it's quite foggy with a slight drizzle.
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17-11-2019, 07:54   #5437
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Sunday, 17 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, with a gradually increasing trend.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal but the southeast could see 25 to 50 per cent above normal with slightly below normal likely in the west and the north.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and sometimes rather misty, with patchy light rain or drizzle moving through parts of Ulster towards the midlands and north Leinster. Other areas should be largely dry. Rather cold but with relatively light northwest winds, it should be tolerable, with highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will see some breaks developing in the cloud and a return to frost and locally dense fog patches with isolated risks of black ice in some parts of the midlands, inland north. Lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will have variable cloud cover, light winds at first becoming moderate southeast later, with rain arriving on the west coast by evening. Highs will be 5 to 8 C east, central and north, 7 to 10 C south and west coasts.

TUESDAY will bring a few outbreaks of light rain and moderate southeast breezes, 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unsettled with rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm, heavier in the southeast than elsewhere. Winds will continue southeast at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows will be 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

The further outlook is for somewhat milder but unsettled weather with occasional strong winds and outbreaks of heavier rain possible, temperatures could briefly be above normal by about Monday 25th reaching 12 to 14 C in parts of the south early that week, but this will come with the risk of strong southwest winds developing.

My local weather was damp for the morning hours then a wet snow began, trying to keep going despite rising freezing levels, so that it's basically melting as it falls now, with the temperature stuck at about +2 C.
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18-11-2019, 07:26   #5438
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Monday, 18 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of November 18 to 24 2019

-- Temperatures will average close to normal values with a cold start but a milder finish to the week balancing out.
-- Rainfall will generally be in the range of 75 per cent of normal to near normal values but the coastal southeast could have as much as 150% of normal values, with heavy falls expected mid-week.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY, watch for black ice and patchy freezing fog in many parts of central Ireland to about ten o'clock before it completely dissipates. Some coastal fringes could have a brighter start but cloud is spreading in over top of the shallow fog layers and once those disappear the day may remain cloudy with glimpses of the sun, but with very light winds for most of the day, fog or mist may continue to come and go in some places. Highs will depend on how much the air mixes locally and could be anywhere from about 3 C inland north and central, to 10 C near the west coast and probably about 7 C in Dublin and Cork.

TONIGHT there will be some light rain moving in rather gradually to bring 5-10 mm to parts of Munster and Connacht. It may stay dry until almost daybreak in Leinster and Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY the patchy rain will continue to push further east with 2 to 5 mm for the eastern regions, but partial clearing will develop further west for a time before heavier rain reaches the southwest late in the day. Highs around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY some heavier rain is likely and it may turn very heavy over parts of Wicklow and Wexford with 30 to 50 mm potential there. Other parts of the country are more likely to see 15 to 25 mm at most. Moderate southeast winds will develop, lows near 4 C and highs in the 8 to 10 C range.

THURSDAY some of the remnants of the heavy rain may push through central counties but without as much intensity, then becoming showery later in the day, a further 10 mm of rain is possible with highs reaching about 10 C.

FRIDAY there will be some remnant showers in a slow partial clearing trend, light winds and highs once again close to 10 C.

SATURDAY could provide a break from rainfall for part of the day with highs near 11 C but a vigorous frontal system is expected by Saturday night with strong southerly winds and rain, lasting into part of Sunday, when it will begin to clear by afternoon, once again near 11 C.

The outlook for next week is generally unsettled, milder and rather windy at times with some outbreaks of heavy rainfall likely, highs often in the range of 10 to 13 C.

My local weather on Sunday turned mild enough to thaw most of the lying snowfall and that created dense fog with temperatures near 5 C. A bit of light rain was falling at times. We are into a much milder weather pattern now and that looks like breaking through into eastern regions fairly readily after the current (Atlantic) ocean storm moves into Nova Scotia in a couple of days. By next week it looks like a non-stop roller coaster ride of strong lows moving from Pacific to Atlantic and over to Europe reminding me a bit of December 2015. Hope that won't last too long but it is somewhat consistent with the long range outlook.
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18-11-2019, 07:26   #5439
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Monday, 18 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of November 18 to 24 2019

-- Temperatures will average close to normal values with a cold start but a milder finish to the week balancing out.
-- Rainfall will generally be in the range of 75 per cent of normal to near normal values but the coastal southeast could have as much as 150% of normal values, with heavy falls expected mid-week.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY, watch for black ice and patchy freezing fog in many parts of central Ireland to about ten o'clock before it completely dissipates. Some coastal fringes could have a brighter start but cloud is spreading in over top of the shallow fog layers and once those disappear the day may remain cloudy with glimpses of the sun, but with very light winds for most of the day, fog or mist may continue to come and go in some places. Highs will depend on how much the air mixes locally and could be anywhere from about 3 C inland north and central, to 10 C near the west coast and probably about 7 C in Dublin and Cork.

TONIGHT there will be some light rain moving in rather gradually to bring 5-10 mm to parts of Munster and Connacht. It may stay dry until almost daybreak in Leinster and Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY the patchy rain will continue to push further east with 2 to 5 mm for the eastern regions, but partial clearing will develop further west for a time before heavier rain reaches the southwest late in the day. Highs around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY some heavier rain is likely and it may turn very heavy over parts of Wicklow and Wexford with 30 to 50 mm potential there. Other parts of the country are more likely to see 15 to 25 mm at most. Moderate southeast winds will develop, lows near 4 C and highs in the 8 to 10 C range.

THURSDAY some of the remnants of the heavy rain may push through central counties but without as much intensity, then becoming showery later in the day, a further 10 mm of rain is possible with highs reaching about 10 C.

FRIDAY there will be some remnant showers in a slow partial clearing trend, light winds and highs once again close to 10 C.

SATURDAY could provide a break from rainfall for part of the day with highs near 11 C but a vigorous frontal system is expected by Saturday night with strong southerly winds and rain, lasting into part of Sunday, when it will begin to clear by afternoon, once again near 11 C.

The outlook for next week is generally unsettled, milder and rather windy at times with some outbreaks of heavy rainfall likely, highs often in the range of 10 to 13 C.

My local weather on Sunday turned mild enough to thaw most of the lying snowfall and that created dense fog with temperatures near 5 C. A bit of light rain was falling at times. We are into a much milder weather pattern now and that looks like breaking through into eastern regions fairly readily after the current (Atlantic) ocean storm moves into Nova Scotia in a couple of days. By next week it looks like a non-stop roller coaster ride of strong lows moving from Pacific to Atlantic and over to Europe reminding me a bit of December 2015. Hope that won't last too long but it is somewhat consistent with the long range outlook.
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19-11-2019, 07:35   #5440
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Tuesday, 19 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there within 36 hours.
-- Sunshine will be relatively close to normal but not spread out evenly by days, one or two days will have more sunshine and at this time of year that can bring totals up to normal as the average is only two hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY there will be a little light rain spreading through eastern counties with clearing skies already moving into parts of west Munster. This clearing trend will continue to follow the rain and bring some sunny breaks with moderate southerly winds at times. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT cloud will increase followed by outbreaks of rain spreading in from the west. Moderate southeast winds, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will see some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

SATURDAY could provide a break between weather systems although there could be a few isolated showers around, probably some longer sunny intervals than most days after today, and highs around 10 C.

SUNDAY will become breezy to windy with rain at times and highs near 11 C.

The outlook for next week is for mild, windy and at times wet weather with a succession of fairly strong Atlantic frontal systems driven along by a strong southwesterly flow aloft. This may mean a return to unusually mild and at times stormy conditions although there should be breaks between the more unsettled intervals. Highs may get into the 12 to 14 C range in the south, the storm track is close enough to Ulster that there might be some potential for sharp temperature contrasts although not quite producing rain-snow boundaries, more like mild rain and cold rain boundaries.

My local weather has turned misty and drizzly again, highs of about 5 C, with some chance of it turning to snow overnight before it all moves away to help form a strong low over the U.S. plains states mid-week. That will pump up some milder air headed for the east coast and Great Lakes regions which have been running quite cold for about two weeks now.
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20-11-2019, 07:43   #5441
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Wednesday, 20 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there today and tomorrow, and again around Monday-Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will now be about 75% of normal (yesterday I said near normal but yesterday was one of the days expected to bring that amount and in most places that was the case, so now we just have perhaps one opportunity to log any substantial number of hours, looking like Sunday in some parts, otherwise it will remain overcast much of the time).

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow, Waterford, Kilkenny, south Laois and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C. The heavier rain is likely to develop later in the day so not too bad for the morning hours.

TONIGHT will continue wet and mild with rainfalls approaching totals of 50 mm in some parts of the southeast with flooding possible in poorly drained areas. Other parts of the country will have intermittent lighter rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr and some dense fog developing in central counties. Lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

For SATURDAY the outlook has changed as the progression of weather systems has slowed down and this means the dry slot between the current complex and the next set due in later Sunday will occur on Saturday night. During the day on Saturday, mostly cloudy with some residual outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east mainly, rather cold as morning fog may be slow to lift in some areas, although reasonably mild near some coasts. Lows about -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C for most, 10 C near some coasts.

SUNDAY will have a clearing trend in the early morning that could lead to frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Then variable cloud will follow in the daytime with an increase in southerly winds and rain arriving by afternoon in the west, evening across eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY will be windy with intervals of rain or showers, some heavy falls are possible in the south again. Highs 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

TUESDAY may see a secondary wave forming to bring a renewed outbreak of rain and strong winds in the south coastal counties. Highs once again 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

The outlook is for this renewed Atlantic regime to continue and perhaps lock in for a while. I am expecting something like December 2015 or perhaps December 2013 which was somewhat stormier and just about as mild. This may lead to a more wintry episode by January if there's any signs of life in the Scandinavian high department. Keep in the back of your mind the outlook that it could get very unsettled around the Christmas holiday period (rain and wind rather than snow seeming the most likely type of disturbance).

My local weather on Tuesday involved the slow departure of leftover moisture from a weak system that changed from drizzle to melting wet snow around 0400h and kept up with that on and off to early afternoon with no real accumulations here, probably a few inches at higher elevations. It cleared right around sunset. The high was near 3 C and now it has dropped to about -5 C due to the clear skies although the air mass is not particularly cold. We will probably wake up to some ice fog and a slow clearing. Heavy snow will be developing in South Dakota and spreading towards the northeast but many parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada will get a warmer spell now as that low tracks well to the north of the Great Lakes.

The tropical season was not quite done after all, Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of Puerto Rico and since the letter Q is not used that's the 18th named storm of 2019. Most of them have been weak tropical storms (or not so weak in a couple of cases) but Dorian will be the signature event of the season. Remnants of Sebastien might be incorporated into any disturbed weather in the central to eastern Atlantic in about five days' time. It is not likely to become a hurricane or if it does, just briefly a cat-1 south of Bermuda moving northeast.
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20-11-2019, 07:44   #5442
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Wednesday, 20 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there today and tomorrow, and again around Monday-Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will now be about 75% of normal (yesterday I said near normal but yesterday was one of the days expected to bring that amount and in most places that was the case, so now we just have perhaps one opportunity to log any substantial number of hours, looking like Sunday in some parts, otherwise it will remain overcast much of the time).

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow, Waterford, Kilkenny, south Laois and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C. The heavier rain is likely to develop later in the day so not too bad for the morning hours.

TONIGHT will continue wet and mild with rainfalls approaching totals of 50 mm in some parts of the southeast with flooding possible in poorly drained areas. Other parts of the country will have intermittent lighter rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr and some dense fog developing in central counties. Lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

For SATURDAY the outlook has changed as the progression of weather systems has slowed down and this means the dry slot between the current complex and the next set due in later Sunday will occur on Saturday night. During the day on Saturday, mostly cloudy with some residual outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east mainly, rather cold as morning fog may be slow to lift in some areas, although reasonably mild near some coasts. Lows about -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C for most, 10 C near some coasts.

SUNDAY will have a clearing trend in the early morning that could lead to frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Then variable cloud will follow in the daytime with an increase in southerly winds and rain arriving by afternoon in the west, evening across eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY will be windy with intervals of rain or showers, some heavy falls are possible in the south again. Highs 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

TUESDAY may see a secondary wave forming to bring a renewed outbreak of rain and strong winds in the south coastal counties. Highs once again 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

The outlook is for this renewed Atlantic regime to continue and perhaps lock in for a while. I am expecting something like December 2015 or perhaps December 2013 which was somewhat stormier and just about as mild. This may lead to a more wintry episode by January if there's any signs of life in the Scandinavian high department. Keep in the back of your mind the outlook that it could get very unsettled around the Christmas holiday period (rain and wind rather than snow seeming the most likely type of disturbance).

My local weather on Tuesday involved the slow departure of leftover moisture from a weak system that changed from drizzle to melting wet snow around 0400h and kept up with that on and off to early afternoon with no real accumulations here, probably a few inches at higher elevations. It cleared right around sunset. The high was near 3 C and now it has dropped to about -5 C due to the clear skies although the air mass is not particularly cold. We will probably wake up to some ice fog and a slow clearing. Heavy snow will be developing in South Dakota and spreading towards the northeast but many parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada will get a warmer spell now as that low tracks well to the north of the Great Lakes.

The tropical season was not quite done after all, Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of Puerto Rico and since the letter Q is not used that's the 18th named storm of 2019. Most of them have been weak tropical storms (or not so weak in a couple of cases) but Dorian will be the signature event of the season. Remnants of Sebastien might be incorporated into any disturbed weather in the central to eastern Atlantic in about five days' time. It is not likely to become a hurricane or if it does, just briefly a cat-1 south of Bermuda moving northeast.
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21-11-2019, 08:02   #5443
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Thursday, 21 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which would be around 9 for the maximum and 3 for the minimum.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal in parts of the west and north, to 50-100 per cent above normal in the south and east, with a few locations possibly as high as 250% of normal around Kilkenny and Carlow.
-- Sunshine will average about half the usual amount, which is rather low at this time of year (about 2 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see renewed heavy rainfall moving gradually further north and east from current locations in Waterford, Kilkenny and eastern Cork into Tipps. Some places may get 35 to 50 mm of rain in the inland southeast with flooding risks associated. The rain will be less intense further north on the east coast and into the north midlands, with 15 to 30 mm potential, and rain will be more showery in nature further west and into parts of Connacht and Ulster with 10 to 20 mm likely there. Moderate east to southeast winds will continue at 30 to 50 km/hr, and temperatures will be in the 8 to 11 C range.

TONIGHT the rain will likely continue to show a slow northward drift overall but will begin to lose some of its heavier intensity in general with 10 to 15 mm further amounts likely in some parts. Lows 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the eastern half of the country with showery bursts travelling northwestward into the midlands and Ulster as well. Partly cloudy with showers further west. Highs 8 to 10 C. About 15 to 25 mm rain possible in some eastern and central counties with 5 to 10 mm further west.

SATURDAY the rain will be persistent near the east coast, sporadic further west with frequent dry intervals developing in western counties. About 10 to 15 mm rain is likely in the east. Some dense and persistent fog may develop in parts of inland Leinster and those areas may remain colder than others as a result. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY there may be a brief dry slot between weather systems as the persistent lows move east into England to make way for a narrow ridge of higher pressure followed by another Atlantic low heading for west Munster by the early hours of Monday. This may mean a slight frost for Sunday morning in parts of the inland west mainly, a few sunny breaks in the morning, then cloudy by afternoon with rain likely later in the day. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. By Sunday night, another heavy rain may develop across the south with 30 to 50 mm amounts possible. Coming soon after the earlier event, this may lead to renewed and possibly serious flooding concerns in the southeast.

MONDAY will continue wet with an interval of strong winds possible near the southeast coast, and temperatures near 10 C.

The outlook for next week is unsettled, with more disturbances due to strike from the southwest at about two-day intervals mid-week and towards the weekend (which would be 30 Nov - 1 Dec). No sign of much let up in this wet and generally mild pattern going forward into December although at times there will be considerably colder air masses close to western Europe trying to get into the mix, however it looks like most of them will be held back to the east of central England to northeast France. Those areas could see some snow at times whenever the rainfall events hit western Britain, France and Ireland.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and we found it quite mild down in the valley (at least 12 degrees) although it never seemed to warm up much above freezing at home. That may be because there is snow cover in all higher areas to our west and north with bare ground evident between here and the lower parts of the Columbia valley (which are a good 500 metres lower than us). Clear and quite frosty outside now at midnight.
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22-11-2019, 07:19   #5444
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Friday, 22 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which would be around 9 for the maximum and 3 for the minimum.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal in parts of the west and north, to 25-50 per cent above normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will average about half the usual amount, which is rather low at this time of year (about 2 hours a day).


FORECASTS

TODAY the rain will gradually weaken for a time, generally heavier amounts in the inland south where 10-20 mm additional is expected. There may be a few breaks in the overcast further north with intervals of light rain or drizzle, as easterly winds also tend to weaken slowly. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT there will be somewhat heavier rainfall near the east coast, extending slowly inland, and bringing 15 mm or more to some areas. Further west, partly cloudy to overcast with occasional rain. Somewhat colder than recent nights with lows about 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY the rain will be persistent near the east coast, sporadic further west with frequent dry intervals developing in western counties. About 10 to 15 mm rain is likely in the east. Some dense and persistent fog may develop in parts of inland Leinster and those areas may remain colder than others as a result. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Temperatures may fall below freezing for part of the evening and midnight period before milder air moves in, frost may therefore come and go during the night with lows -1 to +3 C.

SUNDAY there may be a brief clearing of the skies during the early morning hours although it won't persist all night even in areas where a slight frost develops, as the next system moves in rather quickly with a new batch of rain (10-20 mm expected for most areas and 20-30 mm near the southeast coast). Rain will spread in during the morning and cover most of the country before evening, lasting through the night to Monday morning when a slow clearing trend may begin. Highs on Sunday around 10 C. Some dense fog may develop late Sunday and through the night into Monday morning. ... Coming soon after the earlier event, this renewed rainfall (30 mm overnight in some areas) may lead to renewed and possibly serious flooding concerns in the southeast by Monday.

MONDAY will continue wet at least through the morning, possibly all day in the east, with highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will see intervals of rain and rather gusty winds at times with highs near 8 C.

The outlook has changed somewhat with a break between storms after the end of next week allowing a brief colder interval with northerly winds followed by a dry and cool few days near the start of December, if this guidance holds, but even so the milder weather seems likely to return fairly soon afterwards as the colder air departs again.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy and cool with a bit of mist at times, and highs near 4 C.
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23-11-2019, 07:55   #5445
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Saturday, 23 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal to perhaps 1 deg above normal in the south and east.
-- Rainfall will now average a little greater than normal in some parts of the south and east but variations around the country will become less pronounced, however Ulster will continue a little drier than normal.
-- Sunshine may exceed normal values with some brighter days likely later in the period, but the first half will remain cloudy.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of rain, sometimes persistent and rather heavy in parts of Leinster, and a few showers will drift further west into Connacht and northern portions of Munster at times. Ulster will have some outbreaks of light rain too. The best chance for any brighter intervals will be in west Munster and near the south coast. Highs will reach 7 to 9 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm are possible in some places.

TONIGHT will have a brief clearing of skies allowing for patchy ground frost to develop in north Leinster, the midlands and Ulster. This will likely not survive until morning with cloud moving in rather rapidly after midnight. Rain will arrive by daybreak on the west coast. Lowest temperatures may be -1 to +3 C around midnight then rising temperatures after that.

SUNDAY will see outbreaks of rain, some rather heavy in the south, where 10-20 mm seems likely. Highs 8 to 10 C. Winds generally not too strong as the low tracks towards the south coast and keeps its stronger wind circulation offshore.

MONDAY there will be further rain for part of the day, with highs near 9 C, then a gradual and once again brief clearing between systems before yet another Atlantic low arrives late Monday night.

TUESDAY is looking wet and windy from this next low which may be the strongest of the series, if it tracks into Ireland as shown in some guidance then strong winds could hit the southeast briefly, and heavy rainfalls seem possible for most southern and central counties, with highs around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and showery with brisk westerly winds and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat colder again with more sunshine and only isolated showers, and there may be at least light frosts with lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

The outlook for next weekend (30 Nov to 1 Dec) depends on the track of low pressure that may push across the southern fringes with a sleety rain-snow mix possible for a time, since the cold air will remain in place while it comes and goes on that track. There's sometimes a chance with that long-range scenario that the eventual track is further south and misses altogether allowing the cool, dry weather to continue, so that's a possibility this far in advance. Then after that episode, the flow looks like it may go more into a west to northwest cool but unsettled pattern with the likely result rather chilly temperatures, occasionally mixed precipitation types, and strong winds at times, as we get into December. That's not to say there won't be a few milder days with rain mixed in as a pattern like that often relaxes for a few days at a time.

My local weather stayed generally dry but the morning remained foggy and some snow grains were being deposited by the fog (without any accumulation), then it cleared up and we had patches of blue sky and remnant clouds at hilltop levels, quite cold with a high of about 4 C. The truly cold air has retreated back into its source region and wherever this current air mass can mix, it warms up to near 10 C. Some valleys would remain trapped in an inversion and low cloud and freezing fog could result there.
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