Monday, 11 November, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 November 2019
-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be quite variable from one location to another as most systems will become banded which means large differences likely, the higher amounts (25 to 50 per cent above normal) are likely to be in central Leinster towards east Munster, while somewhat further north and west there could be perhaps half that much.
-- Sunshine will also be rather variable as persistent bands will be cloudy most of the time, so where rainfall is above normal sunshine will likely be quite low, while other places see perhaps 25% more than average for this time of year.
TODAY will be blustery and cold with passing showers, more frequent in the west, but sometimes extending across the country into the east coast counties as well. Some showers will have hail and thunder. Coatings of hail or sleet may be encountered in some places especially over higher terrain. Winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr except 80 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic counties. Highs 5 to 8 C but feeling colder due to the wind.
TONIGHT will see a gradual reduction in both the wind and the coverage area of showers, but what is left over may become wintry in places. Lows -2 to +3 C with scattered frosts likely, some black ice conditions may develop by midnight over rural roads.
TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with more isolated showers more confined to east Ulster and north Leinster. Winds will continue to be northwest until afternoon when a light and variable regime develops briefly, but wind speeds will be down from today's blustery conditions. Highs 6 to 9 C.
WEDNESDAY will see bands of rain with some sleet especially over higher terrain, as low pressure slowly organizes to the west and moves into Munster. This will result in winds turning more to the east and northeast for most regions except the south coast. Some bands of rain will be heavy and persistent, but other places may be between bands and not picking up as much accumulating rain. Central Leinster to east Munster may be the favoured location for the heavier rain bands, with sleet or even snow developing over hilly terrain in that region. Further north and west there may be some areas with just partly cloudy conditions and infrequent showers, but another band of heavier rain may move through north and west Connacht. Winds will become east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Cold and raw with morning lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds will become stronger overnight with some bands perhaps turning wintry at elevations above 250 metres.
THURSDAY will see the windy and unsettled conditions continuing with strong northeast winds backing further to northerly at times. Heavy bands of sea effect streamers are likely in Leinster with mixed forms of precipitation and some thunder and lightning. Snow accumulations are only likely on higher ground but melting snow or sleet could fall closer to sea level. Winds northeast to north 60 to 90 km/hr will add considerable chill to already low temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range.
FRIDAY will become less windy and more settled as bands become isolated and fragmented, although probably in similar locations to the previous two days. Some longer intervals of sunshine will develop. Slight frosts on Friday morning, with sharper and more severe frosts likely Friday night. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.
SATURDAY will see increasing cloud and slightly moderating temperatures near 9 C as a weaker storm system develops and moves through with intervals of rain. Freezing levels will rise somewhat changing any sleet or snow back to rain, but then it will start to turn colder again for Saturday night as winds turn more northwesterly again.
SUNDAY is likely to be breezy and cold with passing showers, some wintry again. Highs only 5 to 7 C.
The outlook for next week calls for quite cold conditions to persist with a few more intervals of rain or sleet in mostly northeasterly winds as a storm track develops to the south of Ireland into France. It probably won't be cold enough for all-out wintry conditions but those may be encountered over higher terrain at times. Temperatures will remain marginal for wintry forms of precipitation in the 5 to 8 C range mostly, with slight frosts at night.
My local weather turned sunny again on Sunday after a very brief interval of light sleet or drizzle before sunrise. This made some of the local higher routes icy in the shade but otherwise it was a dry and relatively pleasant day with highs near 6 C. We got a good view of the rising full moon this evening. The almanac says the full phase occurs on Tuesday at 13:36 hours in your time zone (which is 0536h Tuesday here). We had an extra week of daylight saving time and changed to standard time last weekend here. The governments of western provinces and states want to abolish the time change and go to Pacific daylight saving time year-round (which means dark mornings but a bit of daylight to almost 5:00 p.m. at the winter solstice). I'm not sure if this is going ahead or not, they want to have all Pacific region jurisdictions doing this together to avoid confusion. I don't think it has become an issue anywhere else and I'm not really sure what led to this other than in our laid back part of the world changing the clocks seems to be a lot of work to some of our guiding lights.