Friday, 1st of November, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 November
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, despite a rather mild first day.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in parts of the west and south, to 25 per cent below normal in Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average about two thirds of normal, or two hours a day instead of the average of three (this falls steadily during November).
TODAY will be mild with some brighter intervals in the east this morning, as rain develops further west. A band of heavier rain with some embedded thunderstorms will move into Galway, Clare and some other parts of west Munster around mid-day. About 20-40 mm is possible from then to Saturday morning. The rain will be more sporadic elsewhere and may amount to 10-15 mm for many other places. Highs 13 to 16 C. Strong south to southwest winds reaching 80 to 120 km/hr will also develop later today and peak overnight near the southwest and south coasts. Some parts of Clare may be included, anywhere south of the track of low pressure (expected to be roughly Lahinch to Limerick to Waterford) will get the strong winds, places north of the track will only see moderate southeast winds followed by moderate northwesterlies late tonight.
TONIGHT will be very windy across the south coastal counties, with south to southwest gales of 80 to 120 km/hr switching around to west to northwest at similar speeds later in the night as the low pressure centre passes. Heavy rains (totalling 20-40 mm) will move across the southeast with less prolific amounts (10-20 mm) in central and eastern counties. Some drizzly light rain likely in the north, with partial clearing and gusty northwest winds near the west coast, bands of light rain or drizzle extending from the Atlantic well inland by morning. Lows will be 6 to 8 C.
SATURDAY will continue very windy across the south with a gradual moderating trend to 50-80 km/hr west to northwest winds by afternoon. It will also become fairly windy in other areas further north once the low reaches Wales by mid-day. Some bands of light rain will wrap around the circulation with brighter conditions between the bands. This may tend to set up steady state so the radar will be your guide to how that may turn out locally. Highs will be 8 to 11 C.
SUNDAY another area of low pressure, this one without much energy, will drift into southern counties from the northwest, and bring variable cloud and scattered showers. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mm will be fairly widespread. Somewhat cooler with highs 7 to 10 C. Generally slack wind gradients that will be cyclonic around coastal regions (southerly on east coast, easterly in Ulster, northerly on west coast and westerly near the south coast).
MONDAY will become colder with northeast winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, bands of rather sleety showers likely, some isolated thunderstorms within streamers off the Irish Sea, and brighter intervals especially further west, morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.
TUESDAY will also be bright and rather cold with isolated wintry showers, mainly in streamers from Irish Sea and Atlantic, in moderate northeast winds dying out during the day to become light and variable by afternoon. Morning lows -1 to +3 C with some frosts, afternoon highs around 8 C.
WEDNESDAY will see a rather weak frontal system bringing moderate southeast winds and rainfalls of 5-15 mm, some sleet possible on high ground, and highs near 8 C except possibly 10-12 C in Munster.
There will be slightly milder conditions for part of Thursday, then a push of colder air from the north will arrive and drop temperatures to around 5-7 C daytime with frosts at night late in the week.
My local weather on Thursday continued clear and cool with the high around 7 C after another sub-zero start. The cold air has produced some remarkably low temperatures down in southern Utah, I checked a report and found lows of -23 C at Kodachrome Basin, -19 C at Bryce Canyon and -16 C at Cedar City. Even St George and Las Vegas (more subtropical) had frosts for several nights. This is due to clear skies over a recent snow cover on the plateau regions. Some weather stations in the western U.S. have reported temperatures 20 to 25 (Celsius) degrees below normal values in the past few days, including Denver, Grand Junction and Salt Lake City. This moderates somewhat to 10 degrees below normal in Phoenix and southeastern California. All of the cold air fed into a storm that gave Chicago a record 15 cm snowfall the past two days, obliterating the daily records of trace amounts (and that's going back over a century). The same storm brought damaging westerly winds to the lower Great Lakes overnight, gusts to 120 km/hr were reported on the north shore of Lake Ontario. Snow squalls are now developing off Lake Huron. New York and Boston will be hit by strong winds also this morning although it will not turn particularly cold there.