[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 30 May, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 May to 5 June 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal (nights may be 1-2 deg above normal due to persistent cloud). Monday onward will be cooler than the first four days of this interval.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal for many areas.

-- Sunshine will average only about half of the normal amount.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be warm and humid with showers and isolated thunderstorms, fairly persistent in the north, only isolated in southern counties by afternoon, where highs will be near 20 C. It should reach about 18 or 19 in Dublin and 16 to 18 in parts of the west and north.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, muggy and mild with some further rain in the north, lows 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will be wet in most western and northern counties, starting off partly cloudy in east and south but overcast by afternoon with showers making some progress into those areas, highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will see some clearing overnight lasting into part of the morning (at least in south and east), and there should be a dry interval mid-day before more rain arrives at least in the west by late afternoon, spreading east overnight. Lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, cooler with moderate southwest to west winds, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cooler with showers first part of next week, highs 13 to 16 C, then somewhat warmer but mostly cloudy with risk of some heavier rain developing, highs 15 to 19 C.

My local weather on a travel day Wednesday started out cloudy at the coast, became mostly sunny about halfway back to home base then cloudy again by evening arriving home. Where it was clear we could see tops of rather weak thundershowers that were trying to form over higher terrain but they weren't producing much if any rain or lightning. It was very warm and muggy most of the way too, around 25 C at peak.

____________________________________________________________________________

We are closing in on the tenth anniversary of this forecast thread (31st of May 2009, I had this idea .... that people (cough cough) would like to make forecasts on the weather forum. It turned into this and I've enjoyed it a lot.

[SeaBreezes]

Happy anniversary and thank you so very very much for the years of forecasts.. huge hugs from Ireland.

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 May, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 May to 5 June 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal (nights may be 1-2 deg above normal due to persistent cloud). Monday onward will be cooler than the first four days of this interval.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal for many areas.

-- Sunshine will average only about half of the normal amount.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be warm and humid with showers and isolated thunderstorms, fairly persistent in the north, only isolated in southern counties by afternoon, where highs will be near 20 C. It should reach about 18 or 19 in Dublin and 16 to 18 in parts of the west and north.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, muggy and mild with some further rain in the north, lows 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will be wet in most western and northern counties, starting off partly cloudy in east and south but overcast by afternoon with showers making some progress into those areas, highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will see some clearing overnight lasting into part of the morning (at least in south and east), and there should be a dry interval mid-day before more rain arrives at least in the west by late afternoon, spreading east overnight. Lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, cooler with moderate southwest to west winds, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cooler with showers first part of next week, highs 13 to 16 C, then somewhat warmer but mostly cloudy with risk of some heavier rain developing, highs 15 to 19 C.

My local weather on a travel day Wednesday started out cloudy at the coast, became mostly sunny about halfway back to home base then cloudy again by evening arriving home. Where it was clear we could see tops of rather weak thundershowers that were trying to form over higher terrain but they weren't producing much if any rain or lightning. It was very warm and muggy most of the way too, around 25 C at peak.

____________________________________________________________________________

We are closing in on the tenth anniversary of this forecast thread (31st of May 2009, I had this idea .... that people (cough cough) would like to make forecasts on the weather forum. It turned into this and I've enjoyed it a lot.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 31 May, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 May to 6 June, 2019 ...

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal with highs often in the mid-teens after today and Saturday.

-- Rainfall will average near normal and it will accumulate a little at a time through the period.

-- Sunshine will average at best two-thirds of the normal amount (six hours daily on average) and possibly worse than that in places.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy with widespread light rain or drizzle, heavier rain in parts of Connacht. This will trend towards heavy showers moving further east across northern counties while southern counties could get some dry intervals and the odd break in the overcast. It will feel rather muggy in the south with highs near 19 C, cooler in the north with highs about 15 C. 10-20 mm rainfalls possible in the north.

TONIGHT will have a clearing trend and lows will be about 7 C.

SATURDAY will start out sunny in the east and south with increasing cloud. It will be largely overcast in the north and west, dry for a while then some rain will arrive there by late afternoon. Highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY will feature some heavy early morning rainfalls followed by partly cloudy to overcast skies and further showers, about 10 mm of rain on average. Highs near 15 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking quite cool now with occasional showers and a mixture of cloud and sunshine although cloud dominating in most places, lows around 6 C and highs only about 14 C.

OUTLOOK calls for only a slight increase in temperatures after that towards perhaps 17 C with a little rain here and there each day, although dry intervals too, as heavier rainfalls develop further east but at this point appear more likely to track through Britain than Ireland.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy, warm and oppressive with some heavy thundershowers forming by late afternoon and we had quite a downpour for half an hour, probably 20 mm of rain (which is good news as the forests were starting to dry out ominously). These showers were fairly widespread so at least half the southern regions of the province got a good soaking from them. Meanwhile, I hadn't mentioned a lot of the details due to my travels etc, but there has been a two-week outbreak of very severe weather in the central U.S., this showed some signs of weakening on Thursday. Not only have there been many tornados but an unusual number of the stronger ones have decided to target large cities (among them, Dayton OH, Jefferson City MO, suburbs of Oklahoma City (El Reno) and Kansas City both KS and MO). It's a minor miracle that the death toll has been relatively low with all of these strong tornados hitting urban areas, often at night.

So as mentioned we are almost at the ten-year mark, I said this started on 31st May 2009 but that was in my time zone, I think the first post appeared on the morning of 1st of June 2009. In all that time, we've seen some dramatic weather events, just to name a few, the late 2010 snow and severe cold, the 2013 and 2014 hot summers and a few interesting storms, Storm Darwin in Feb 2014 and all the other storms that same winter, Hurricane Ophelia in Oct 2017, and the remarkable snowfalls of late Feb into first of March 2018. This is when I actually have to do some serious work on these forecasts, otherwise it's mainly a function of my residing in a time zone where 0400h to 0600h (forecast decision time) is not middle of the night for me, but mid-evening so that's why (more than any other reason) I've been doing these forecasts and other equally capable (or more so) weather forum members have been just filling in graciously when I do get a few weeks away. But as I've said many times, the more significant forecasts tend to draw on the full experience of the forum as expressed in the discussion threads, while these less dramatic periods, I tend to hug the models (not a bad thing to do most of the time). I can't say looking forward to the next ten years as I have another milestone looming, the dreaded 70th, so we'll see how this plays out (ya never know).

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 1st of June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 June

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal with highs often in the mid-teens.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal with Monday-Tuesday now looking rather wet. A few western districts could see a bit less than the normal amounts with the heavier rain looking likely to target north and east more.

-- Sunshine will average half of its normal value at best, or about 3 hours a day on average. That could be optimistic in some parts of the north too.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A few brighter intervals between outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, then heavier rain likely by evening. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain heavy at times, 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers and slight risk of an isolated thundershower. Some risk of strong winds developing later in the day near west coast. Highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of rain becoming heavy near south coast mid-day, spreading up east coast by evening. Cool and breezy, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain heavy at times in east, total amounts near 30 mm (including Monday), with partial clearing in some western counties later afternoon, cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue a cool and unsettled theme with highs only around 15 C, and some chance of isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms although perhaps equal chances of any given place having a dry day too.

The further outlook is not very encouraging with rain likely around weekend of 8th-9th followed by more cool unsettled weather.

Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point.

My local weather was sunny and rather warm with towering cumulus buildups over nearby hills, but no sign of actual showers or thunder. Highs around 24 C.

And so we enter into the second decade of this experiment ... I've learned a lot about the weather and the people of Ireland, in the latter case mostly all good. One comes in with preconceived notions about the Irish weather that get some fine tuning along the way, I have found it fascinating and because of the many pictures I see during my weather work, we are hoping to get a chance to visit sooner or later.

[secman]

"Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point."
Can someone post a link to this forecast, akesys look ouf for it every year, but somehow missed it, thanks

[Dizzyblonde]

M.T. Cranium I always check in with your forecasts here or on Facebook, they're more reliable and user friendly than any other. So thank you and here's to another 10 years

[M.T. Cranium]

Originally Posted by secman

"Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point."
Can someone post a link to this forecast, akesys look ouf for it every year, but somehow missed it, thanks

It was posted with the 22nd of May forecast ... but this is it so you won't need to scroll back there ...

SUMMER OUTLOOK -- Here's a brief overview of how I think the summer of 2019 might turn out. The key word is average -- most indications are that the current rather featureless and bland weather pattern will continue to be the background theme, so June and possibly July temperatures will remain quite close to average and so will rainfall, although there may be one or two places seeing quite an isolated heavy downpour at some point in that kind of scenario. Then I believe that a warmer trend will set in for August and early September which may be warmer than average and reasonably dry with the possibility of isolated heavy thunderstorm rainfalls. At this point I don't think it will be a lot different from the long-term averages but that may make for a reasonably pleasant summer.

[Meteorite58]

Mod Note: I'm sure the posts appreciating MT's work are well meant but we would remind that this is a no chat thread otherwise it will get cluttered and off topic very quickly.

Thank You.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 2 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 June 2019 ...

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will amount to twice or even three times normal in the south and east, closer to normal in north and west.

-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.

-- It will be quite windy for this time of year.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Breezy and rather cool with a few passing showers, but also some brief breaks in the overcast. There will be an interval of strong winds in Connacht and west Ulster this afternoon and early evening, southwest 60-100 km/hr, while in other parts of the country, peak gusts of about 80 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of light rain, 5 to 10 mm possible in north and west, moderate southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate southwest winds becoming more variable by afternoon. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning spreading through Munster and Leinster, with some heavy amounts especially over higher terrain in southeast. Potential for 40 to 70 mm totals there, otherwise 20 to 50 mm. Not quite as wet in Connacht and Ulster but persistent light rain. Cool with northeast winds increasing to 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Friday and Saturday will be unsettled but another spell of heavy rain could develop by Sunday 9th. The weather appears likely to remain unsettled into the following week but there could be brief spells of much warmer weather with that.

My local weather was sunny and very warm with a high near 28 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 3 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 June 2019 ...

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will amount to 150% to 250% of normal amounts in parts of Munster and Leinster, closer to normal amounts in Connacht and Ulster. A good deal of that will fall in the next two days but further amounts will be recorded most places on following days.

-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.

-- It will be rather windy for this time of year.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Sunny breaks this morning, with some isolated showers, then becoming mostly cloudy, more widespread showers likely before evening when rain will move into the south. Highs 14 to 17 C. Breezy to mid-day then most places having a calmer afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfall likely in Munster and Leinster, and a few adjacent portions of Connacht and Ulster, 15-25 mm by morning. Winds increasing to NE 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning spreading through Munster and Leinster, with some heavy amounts especially over higher terrain in southeast. Potential for 35 to 65 mm totals there, otherwise 20 to 50 mm (all of this including amounts predicted overnight above). Not quite as wet in Connacht and Ulster but persistent light rain. Cool with northeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr backing to northerly later. Highs only 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Isolated heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Unsettled, highs 15 to 17 C, frequent light rain or showers. Heavier rain appears likely to spread north into Britain at some point during this period and some of it could circulate around low pressure to reach northern counties of Ulster then further south along the west coast eventually, but this scenario could be modified towards a more widespread heavy rainfall if model guidance changes very much over the next few days. As the potential exists for 50-100 mm rainfalls in Britain, we need to monitor the potential in Ireland in case that rainfall shifts over time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat warmer for a time but continuing quite unsettled with frequent rain likely. Unfortunately it may be difficult for anyone counting on a few days of dry weather but we will keep watching to see if a break develops.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and hot, close to 30 C here and 33 C at a nearby lower elevation airport which was the warmest place in the country at that point.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 4 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 June 2019 ...

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will amount to 150% to 250% of normal amounts in parts of Munster and Leinster, closer to normal amounts in Connacht and Ulster.

-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Rain will continue to spread north through the midlands and Leinster reaching east Ulster later this morning. Further amounts of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Further west the rain will be more showery but could develop into locally heavy showers or thunderstorms in a few spots. Cool with highs only 12 to 15 C. Winds moderate northeast backing to northerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing in central counties, as rain more confined to north coast, but renewed outbreaks later near south coast also. Lows about 5 C central, closer to 9 C where rain continues.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Isolated heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue unsettled with a lot of cloud, brief sunny intervals, and showers, with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY is looking rather wet again, with a system similar to today's rainfall event moving through eastern and central counties, and quite cool temperatures 12 to 14 C.

NEXT WEEK is starting to look somewhat improved now with high pressure building up by mid-week, possibly a few dry days coming along after the 10th. Rather far off to give very precise details but temperatures may also recover to more normal readings in the high teens to near 20 C.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and still rather warm although a bit cooler than the heat on the weekend with a high around 24 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 5 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 June, 2019

-- Temperatures will continue cool, around 2 or even 3 degrees below normal for time of year.

-- Rainfall will ease slightly (now that a lot of the previously predicted amounts have fallen) to near or a little above normal for the week.

-- Sunshine will continue to run below normal especially in the north, some parts of the south may come closer to average amounts.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Rain will continue in the north but will slowly decrease in intensity and fragment to showers, with a gradual drift west and then back to the south in the remnants of the rainfall; some places will see 10 to 20 mm further rainfalls. The south may start out partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals, then some showers will develop there also, one or two could turn heavy and thundery later. Highs will reach about 16 C in the south but will be held to about 12 C in the north.

TONIGHT ... Rain or showers in a few parts of the west, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 6 C.

THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine to start, then development of heavy showers in central counties, spreading to Leinster during the later afternoon, with risk of some isolated heavy thunderstorms. Highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, more frequent in west, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT some heavy rain moving north across Wales and western England may edge close to the east coast and eventually back into parts of north Leinster and east Ulster. Lows near 9 C. Staying dry further west.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds and after any rain comes and goes on Saturday morning in the north and east, just a few scattered showers likely. Highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will start out dry then see outbreaks of light rain and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for rather cool temperatures to continue for much of the week of 10 to 14 June in a north to northeast wind flow, then somewhat warmer around mid-month, but always with some risk of rainfall developing.

Some who are looking for dry weather over three or four days may have to settle for imperfect conditions around Friday to Monday or take a chance on waiting quite a long while for a better opportunity.

My local weather on Tuesday continued sunny but once again it was cooler than the previous day, this time only around 20 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 6 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 June, 2019

-- Temperatures will continue cool, around 1.5 to 2.5 degrees below normal for time of year.

-- Rainfall will ease slightly (now that a lot of the previously predicted amounts have fallen) to near or a little above normal for the week.

-- Sunshine will continue to run below normal especially in the north, some parts of the south may come closer to average amounts. There will be an improving trend by mid-week.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine to start, except in Connacht and parts of Donegal where the last of the persistent rain will continue this morning (about 5 mm further rain can be expected there). By mid-day watch for the development of heavy showers in central counties, spreading to Leinster during the later afternoon, with risk of some isolated heavy thunderstorms. Highs near 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, cool, lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, more frequent in west, isolated showers, and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT some heavy rain moving north across Wales and western England will edge into coastal areas near the east coast and eventually may bring 5 to 15 mm rain overnight to parts of north and central Leinster and east Ulster. Lows near 9 C. Staying dry further west with moderate northwest winds at times.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds and after any rain comes and goes on Saturday morning in the north and east, just a few scattered showers likely. Highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will start out dry then see outbreaks of light rain and highs near 16 C.

The rest of next week may continue with the same partly cloudy, somewhat unsettled weather although there are some models showing a greater improvement now, so while confidence in that may be low at this point, it is something to monitor especially if you're looking for a few dry days. Perhaps there will be some better certainty on this outcome by Friday morning's forecast.

My local weather managed to get cooler again for the fourth consecutive day with mostly cloudy skies, highs near 19 C and some rain by evening.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 7 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 June, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 degree below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal but a little above in the east, somewhat below in the west.
-- Sunshine will begin to recover to more normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Sunny intervals in many areas this morning, increasing cloud by afternoon, some bands of light rain developing north-south as outer bands of a strong disturbance moving north into Britain where heavy rain is expected. For these lighter bands of rain in Ireland, 1 to 3 mm amounts are possible (most likely location just inland from east coast). Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming steady and sometimes rather heavy near east coast, and some distance inland north of Dublin, amounts of about 10 mm likely. Partly cloudy to overcast further west but dry in some places. Lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms. Moderate north to northwest winds. Highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, moderate westerly winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Tuesday and Wednesday are looking more settled with only a few isolated and brief showers, and partly cloudy skies with some longer sunny intervals developing. Highs near 18 C. Beyond that, there is some increase in the chance of showers as winds return to a northeasterly direction, but even so some places could have long dry intervals and temperatures should remain seasonable at about 17 or 18 degrees. Nights will be rather cool next week with some clear skies and lows 4 to 7 C.

My local weather was mostly cloudy on Thursday with light showers and highs near 17 C. A band of heavier rain was just to our north all day and will be drifting down our way later today.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 8 June, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 June, 2019 ...

-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 2.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but will be fairly persistent at times giving the appearance of wetter than average conditions.
-- Sunshine will average about two thirds of normal values, more like 4 hours a day than the average of six.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy with a few breaks mostly in west-central counties. Light rain or drizzle will come and go near the east coast but will only be persistent in east Ulster for a time. Later in the afternoon some heavier showers may develop in moderate westerly winds. It will continue rather cool with highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few remnant showers and lows near 7 C. Mist and fog patches will be fairly widespread by morning.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and moderate west backing to southwest breezes, eventually some rather heavy showers are likely with a few isolated thundershowers in west Munster. Highs about 15 C.

MONDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine with showers somewhat more isolated, longer dry intervals possible. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will likely be rather cloudy with some outbreaks of light rain more likely in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, midlands and east Connacht. Winds will set up from the northeast and will sometimes be rather gusty near the east coast. Highs will range from about 14 C in the east to 17 C in the west, and overnight lows will be around 8 C.

There are some signs of a slow warming trend beyond that, but we'll get more excited about that if it continues to show on more reliable time frames in a few days' time.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with the odd glimpse of blue sky, and occasional showers, with distant rumbles of thunder too. And it was quite chilly here also with highs barely making it to 14 C locally. We are expecting a slow improving trend starting this weekend. (If you are watching the Canadian Open golf with several Irish players in contention, that's near Toronto at Hamilton ON a long way east from here, and their weather is expected to remain mostly sunny on the weekend).