If temperatures broke into the thirties in Ireland

squarecircles · 26-07-2019 11:03am #1

We missed the heatwave. we missed the thunderstorms so lets do a simulation.

what would the ramifications be here in Ireland if temperatures started to creep into the low to mid and eventually high 30s over the course of say a week.

Is it even possible,where would the most extreme temperatures occur,how would we cope,are we ready for such an eventuality. I know its probably not something we have to worry about for some time,

but new research shows that summers like 2018 are now 30 times more likely in the future.

can anybody post a graphic of our maximum summer temperatures over the past 10 years.

Larbre34 · 26-07-2019 1:29pm

High 30s very unlikely in Ireland. If you look at yesterday's setup, the UK and north continent received their air from a southerly African airflow which modified little over the Med and an already warm continent.

Yes, Ireland was on the boundary of that, but in the event we had more of a direct hit, the airmass would have had to pass over Biscay and the Celtic Sea where it would have been modified by the cool waters and reduced in impact.

If you look at Ireland's landmark hot summers since say 1976, we have struggled in ideal circumstances to top the 1887 record of 33.3 at Kilkenny and in fact that reading in now in question as to its accuracy.

In my view, to get 33-35 degrees, we would need a long warm summer period to increase the sea temps and then an Azores high building over a period with a slack south easterly originating from Africa, peaking in August. Its almost unthinkable that that would be a sustained phenomenon.

As for ramifications, just look at the reports from the UK and Europe, damage to infrastructure, adverse health effects in vulnerable groups and agricultural damage both to crops in the ground and animal herds. The water crisis in Summer 18 was a serious portent of the lack of irrigation and contingent water supply for our 12 million+ livestock.

sryanbruen · 26-07-2019 2:10pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

High 30s very unlikely in Ireland. If you look at yesterday's setup, the UK and north continent received their air from a southerly African airflow which modified little over the Med and an already warm continent.

Yes, Ireland was on the boundary of that, but in the event we had more of a direct hit, the airmass would have had to pass over Biscay and the Celtic Sea where it would have been modified by the cool waters and reduced in impact.

If you look at Ireland's landmark hot summers since say 1976, we have struggled in ideal circumstances to top the 1887 record of 33.3 at Kilkenny and in fact that reading in now in question as to its accuracy.

In my view, to get 33-35 degrees, we would need a long warm summer period to increase the sea temps and then an Azores high building over a period with a slack south easterly originating from Africa, peaking in August. Its almost unthinkable that that would be a sustained phenomenon.

As for ramifications, just look at the reports from the UK and Europe, damage to infrastructure, adverse health effects in vulnerable groups and agricultural damage both to crops in the ground and animal herds. The water crisis in Summer 18 was a serious portent of the lack of irrigation and contingent water supply for our 12 million+ livestock.

Funny you say that about the 1887 record because me and Conor Murphy were only discussing about it last night. Looks like ICARUS Maynooth will be investigating the record which I think is a good idea as it's almost a degree above the highest Ireland has achieved since (32.5c in 1976). I only recently discovered myself that Ireland's max temp record is the oldest record of its kind in the entire world that still stands to the present day.

https://twitter.com/cmurphy2904/status/1154547439971577862

q85dw7osi4lebg · 26-07-2019 2:34pm

Hottest days on record:

Germany: 2019
Belgium: 2019
Netherlands: 2019
Luxembourg: 2019
France: 2019
Spain: 2017
Austria: 2013
Italy: 2007
Switzerland: 2003
Greece: 1977
Poland: 1921

Ireland: 1887

Lol..

redsteveireland · 26-07-2019 2:37pm

There would be an explosion in the number of sightings of the dreaded socks and sandles combination and there wouldn't be a 99 machine in the country able to cope with the demand.

spitonmedickie · 26-07-2019 2:43pm

Alot of the impacts are set out in the adaptation plans national sectors and local authorities are preparing at the moment https://www.gov.ie/en/consultations/?term=Climate

For example DTTAS have determined that high temperatures are only a medium priority impact when it comes to future climate scenarios and transport http://www.dttas.ie/public-transport/publications/english/adaptation-public-consultation

antix80 · 26-07-2019 2:47pm

If temperatures were in the 30s in Ireland, what of it? I saw an online ad for AC the other day. I guess AC would be more common. More ads. More people fitting AC systems. Cider sales may increase 11%. Pretty boring simulation if you ask me.

gerrybbadd · 26-07-2019 2:50pm

There wouldn't be a shirted man spotted in the entire country

nthclare · 26-07-2019 3:16pm

The country boreens would collapse and smaller road's too happened last year in a few places in East Clare.

The river's would be trickling, there would be an upsurge in drowning incidents....

Huge hospital quees...

MarkR · 26-07-2019 3:22pm

Roads tend to melt here when you hit 30 degrees. Many years ago, in a previous heatwave, they had to hose down O'Connell street in Limerick, as it had melted, and was being pulled up by passing trucks.

Litreally, our infrastructure is not up to it.

Trains would need to slow down due to heat stress on tracks. So trips would take longer.

We'd quickly run out of cider and paddling pools.

Red shoulders everywhere.

26-07-2019 3:23pm

gerrybbadd wrote: »

There wouldn't be a shirted man spotted in the entire country

proper order too.
Only two types of weather.
tops on or tops off

Mint Sauce · 26-07-2019 3:24pm

We would possibly die!

Hooter23 · 26-07-2019 3:29pm

Temperatues being broken in cities these days are meaningless anyway with the amount of concrete and tarmac heating them up alot more than rural areas...

Gonzo · 26-07-2019 3:43pm

Ireland's location is just too much of a struggle to get much beyond 30c unless there is exceptional circumstances. Every other European country is landlocked on at least two sides. The UK has us to their west and France to their south with very little sea in the way. We have lots of water to our south, west and north with only the uk to the east, and when we have an easterly wind the temperatures get lowered so we're never going to see 34C or 35c. We stuggle to get past 28C most years and those temperatures usually occur in the west, sheltered from the Irish sea.

The east of the country has the potential to reach 34C or 35C but Never does because most warm spells have an easterly wind, and when the winds the switch back to a SSW direction we usually have an Atlantic system and cloud already over us preventing high temperatures even in the east.

sryanbruen · 26-07-2019 5:12pm

As for maximum temperatures in the past 10 years or so in Ireland.

Data from Met Éireann.

Jpmarn · 27-07-2019 7:17am

It is surprising that the yearly Max temperature hasn’t happened in the month of August. May seems to surprise month where annual highs occurred in 2 years since 2006. June seems to be the popular month. I would be interested wether the annual Max occurred in August 2003?

Glass fused light · 27-07-2019 7:31am

redsteveireland wrote: »

There would be an explosion in the number of sightings of the dreaded socks and sandles combination and there wouldn't be a 99 machine in the country able to cope with the demand.

I have been reliably informed by my fashionista niece that it is now socially acceptable to sock and sandle even in shorts.

We are all doomed!

Edit weather thread

At what degree will it impact on the road surfaces?

And for us country dwellers it would mean all the farmers would have to siesta at noon and forget totally about night sleeping. (Lads have been working next door for about 3 hrs already)

Glass fused light · 27-07-2019 7:40am

Jpmarn wrote: »

It is surprising that the yearly Max temperature hasn’t happened in the month of August. May seems to surprise month where annual highs occurred in 2 years since 2006. June seems to be the popular month. I would be interested wether the annual Max occurred in August 2003?

Was there not a Marchish (paddys day or early Easter weekend) recently which was one of the hottest days that year?

Jpmarn · 27-07-2019 7:45am

We had a very warm Easter Weekend this year. Easter Sunday was the 21st of April. But we had hotter days since with over 28°C recorded in Shannon in late June.

sryanbruen · 27-07-2019 8:44am

Jpmarn wrote: »

It is surprising that the yearly Max temperature hasn’t happened in the month of August. May seems to surprise month where annual highs occurred in 2 years since 2006. June seems to be the popular month. I would be interested wether the annual Max occurred in August 2003?

The annual max of 30.3c at Belderrig in 2003 did occur in August, on the 8th. The highest August max this decade was 27.0c at Glenties Hatchery on 10th August 2012. That May 2012 max was the second highest May temperature on record for Ireland behind 28.4c in May 1997 (at the same station, Ardfert).

Rikand · 27-07-2019 9:21am

sryanbruen wrote: »

As for maximum temperatures in the past 10 years or so in Ireland.

Data from Met Éireann.

19th July on the list 3 times and each time over 30 degrees.

That right there is our sweet spot!

sryanbruen · 27-07-2019 9:22am

Rikand wrote: »

19th July on the list 3 times and each time over 30 degrees.

That right there is our sweet spot!

Your sweet spot is the fact two of those 19th July occasions were achieved at Roscommon stations

.

sryanbruen · 31-07-2019 11:57am

I did an analysis of the highest absolute max temperatures for Ireland back to 1961 last year or earlier this year (I can't remember exactly) based on a large file of 25c+ days recorded in Ireland thanks to Donegal Storm. Some of those max temps are incorrect in the graphic I posted on the other page of this thread as a result - these max temps were found via the monthly weather bulletin or daily weather statements on met.ie. Many stations in this file were climate stations that were not considered in the bulletin so this is a proper record of the absolute max temperatures for the Republic of Ireland from 1961 to 2019 although 2019's max is not confirmed to be the max due to climate stations' data not being available for 27 June 2019 and won't be until a good while yet.

I found that a max of 30.0c or more occurs in Ireland every 3.9 years on average {2018, 2016, 2013, 2006, 2005, 2003, 1995, 1990, 1989, 1983, 1976, 1975} but this gap has been as large as 8 years, 1995 to 2003. No trend in absolute maxima increasing or decreasing but every year since 2016 has had a max of at least 28.0c somewhere in Ireland (including four date occurrences of 30.0c; 19 July 2016, 27 to 29 June 2018) which is very unusual for us as you can see from the chart back to 1961.

Data from Met Éireann.

Wx · 01-08-2019 12:57am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Your sweet spot is the fact two of those 19th July occasions were achieved at Roscommon stations .

I seem to recall at least 3 consecutive days with 30°+ being recorded somewhere in the country in summer 76 or am I dreaming?

Jpmarn · 01-08-2019 9:35am

Shannon Airport had 3 consecutive days of temperatures over 30°C Last June 2018.

sryanbruen · 01-08-2019 10:03am

Wx wrote: »

I seem to recall at least 3 consecutive days with 30°+ being recorded somewhere in the country in summer 76 or am I dreaming?

I don't have daily records for Ireland in 1976 but Boora, Co. Offaly had 5 consecutive days with a max of 30c from 29 June to 3 July 1976 and Kilkenny had 4 consecutive days with a max of 30c or more in July 1983 too.

dsmythy · 02-08-2019 8:51am

Seems any adverse climate change for us would be more of the wind rain drought variety rather than excessive heat. Unless you get more extreme things like severe weakening of the gulf stream.

Danno · 24-09-2019 11:21am

Larbre34 wrote: »

If you look at Ireland's landmark hot summers since say 1976, we have struggled in ideal circumstances to top the 1887 record of 33.3 at Kilkenny and in fact that reading in now in question as to its accuracy.

StratoQ who used to post on here pointed out that this temperature record shouldn't be cast in doubt as a reading in the high 32s was recorded the same day in Waterford.

The 32.0c last year in Shannon IMO is under doubt because of extensive tarmacadam to the north east of the site - IIRC there was quite a discussion on this very forum about it at the time.

Elmer Blooker · 24-09-2019 11:42am

Wx wrote: »

I seem to recall at least 3 consecutive days with 30°+ being recorded somewhere in the country in summer 76 or am I dreaming?

I'm almost certain that the temperature exceeded 31c on five consecutive days in July 1983 at Kilkenny.
Amazing to think there were three very good summers in six years during the 1980s - '83, '84' and '89 ........ good summers are so rare now we'll probably be talking about the summer of 2018 for years to come!!

Oneiric 3 · 24-09-2019 2:10pm

It is interesting when you compare the N. Atlantic SST profile of June 2018 to June 1976 (which I think is the last time we had at least 3 consecutive days with 30c + temps), that in general, they are roughly the same. Cool to the south of Greenland, warmer to the east.

RobertKK · 24-09-2019 3:22pm

Shannon airport gets it hottest temperatures when the air is coming from the direction of the car park.

If temperatures broke into the thirties in Ireland

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