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At what point in the year does an easterly/south-easterly from Russia become warm?

  • 02-04-2015 11:26am
    #1
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭


    OK, slightly vague question. We are now into April and high pressure looks like forming over the country over the weekend. After that, the wind looks like turning to a SE direction or thereabouts. The origin of this air looks to be from middle to eastern Europe but it won't be particularly warm. Even if it was a true east or south east with air originating further east in Russia, it would still not be very warm.
    I know there are so many variables in play (SSTs being a biggie at this time of the year) but on average, at what stage of Spring can a wind source originating in middle/eastern Europe or Russia cause a nice jump in temperature, away from sea facing coasts? I know the temperature at the source is extremely important in governing how much warm air can get over to us and also that cloud cover over mainland Europe can make a huge difference with regards to progress of warm air westwards.
    Another massive factor is solar radiation and this is where my original thoughts about this came from....I'm guessing that at some point after the Spring Equinox, mainland Europe and the (generally) warmer parts of Russia reach a point whereby temperatures make a transition from winter to summer like temperatures, as per the continental climates they have.
    So a very vague question, I know....so I am expecting some very vague answers too but hope that it opens up a bit of debate.


Comments

  • #2
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    It never gets warm on the east coast anyway!


  • #3
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    at a guess I would say an easterly/south-easterly would be cold till March, then April it would be mild, slightly warm at the end of April, then May-September it would bring warmer air with the real heat June-August.


  • #4
    Alexis Sanchez
    Registered Users Posts: 415 ✭✭Alexis Sanchez


    Spring 2013 was cold because of a sustained easterly. It struggled to reach 16.5 Celsius on the 23rd of May. There is no set period for the transition from cold to warm because if Russia has a severely cold spring, then an easterly could easily bring snow here.


  • #5
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just looking at the stats for the station closest to me, which being in the west can experience a slightly wider range of temperatures under easterly conditions than areas further east, there is no real hard and fast rule as to when easterlies become or begin to feel warm. Warm easterlies (and not just easterlies from Russia, which only happen very very rarely) can occur as early as late March; whereas cold easterlies can pop up as late as late April or early May.

    In general though, when the data is smoothed out and averaged out over a 30 year period, easterlies on average will start to feel warmer during the mid to late April period. I ran some code on the freely available met eirann data for Claremorris and this is how the average daily maxima looks when winds are from an easterly quarter at the station for the first six months of the year.

    344189.PNG

    The chart above might have looked more clear is I used daily anomalies as that may have given a better idea as the the direct effects of easterlies on the average temperature for a particular point of the year, but can do that again sometime.


    Edit:
    Graph showing the effect easterlies have on temperature anomalies (deviation from the mean) between January & June at Claremorris. Shows nicely that easterlies have, in the main, a negative effect on temperatures during the first half of the period, and generally more positive effects over the remainder.

    344293.PNG




    All data used in graphs C/O Met Eireann.

    New Moon



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