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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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    #1922
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    tonights GFS is really poor for us here in Ireland, Ireland with mild muck and the UK in the freezer. The GFS overall really hasn't been kind to us over the past week, usually wants to keep Ireland on it's own in the Atlantic air.

    Most other models include Ireland in the cold, so I really hope the GFS is wrong.

    This is going to be a nail biting week for us, I really hope we start to see very decent runs in the reliable time frame by next weekend, GFS and all on board to deliver cold and snow for Ireland.


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    #1923
    Jimbob1977
    Registered Users Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭Jimbob1977


    My wife lit a fire today for the sake of it.

    It was around 12c!!!

    Very mild in Limerick.


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    #1924
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    highdef wrote: »
    pad199207 wrote: »
    Certainly a wintery feel to the end of Met Eireanns forecast this morning.

    “Wednesday: Rain will extend gradually eastwards across the country during the morning. Brighter conditions, with sunny spells, will follow from the Atlantic during the day, but a few scattered showers will develop in Atlantic coastal areas, becoming heavier and more frequent later, with a risk of hail, mainly along west and northwest coasts. Mild at first, but it will turn gradually colder, as southerly winds veer west to northwest in direction, the winds mostly light to moderate overland. Maximum afternoon temperatures 6 to 9 Celsius
    Wednesday night will be dry in most areas, with clear intervals, but scattered showers will occur, mainly along northern, western and southwestern coasts, with a risk of hail and thunder. Very cold, with widespread frost. Min. minus 2 to plus 2 Celsius, coldest in the eastern half of the country. Fog patches possible also.

    Thursday: Early indications suggest that Thursday will be mainly dry, with sunny spells, but cloud will increase gradually. Very cold, in light northerly breezes. Maximum temperatures 4 to 7 Celsius. Very cold overnight, with a risk of sharp frost where breaks in cloud occur, especially in the north. Min. minus 3 to plus 3 Celsius. Risk of fog also, in near calm conditions.

    Friday and weekend: Early indications suggest that it will remain quite unsettled and changeable, with a good deal of cloud and some rain or sleet at times. Still quite cold, with a risk of frost at night where breaks in cloud occur.”

    Awwwww, I was all excited, awaiting the moment where I read the word "snow"in the forecast. Sad now.... lol

    Very rare (understandably - given our climate) for ME to ever mention the word snow in a forecast more than 24h out.
    Takes a pretty extreme outlook before they ever do. Would actually be interesting to see how many occasions that they have....Last March and several times in 2010 are the only examples I can think of....

    Certainly here in Connacht 3/4 snowfalls we tend to get are not mentioned at all beforehand, often with the "high ground" and "sleet" bits edited only after the snow has stuck.
    And this is by no means a dig at ME - if I was in their shoes my forecasts would be just as cautious when it comes to white stuff!


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    #1925
    Andrew00
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    Dirty rotten Atlantic muck


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    #1926
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    tonights GFS is really poor for us here in Ireland, Ireland with mild muck and the UK in the freezer. The GFS overall really hasn't been kind to us over the past week, usually wants to keep Ireland on it's own in the Atlantic air.

    Most other models include Ireland in the cold, so I really hope the GFS is wrong.

    This is going to be a nail biting week for us, I really hope we start to see very decent runs in the reliable time frame by next weekend, GFS and all on board to deliver cold and snow for Ireland.

    GFS OP was a mild outlier. GEFS 12z still strongly indicative of getting Greenland blocking during the fourth week of January and the last few days of the month (as is the EPS). Not saying that's going to happen, just observing.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #1927
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS OP was a mild outlier. GEFS 12z still strongly indicative of getting Greenland blocking during the fourth week of January and the last few days of the month (as is the EPS). Not saying that's going to happen, just observing.

    yep, that terrible GFS run seems to be on it's own. I just took a look at the refreshed ensemble run for Dunshaughlin and the GFS model is way off on it's own in the very mild territory.

    It will likely flip back to a colder run by the morning.


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    #1928
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Just heard a blast of wind hit the house here in Cork City and the trees shake, out of nowhere really. It was actually refreshing to hear since its been so dead.


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    #1929
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Just heard a blast of wind hit the house here in Cork City and the trees shake, out of nowhere really. It was actually refreshing to hear since its been so dead.

    A blast of wind? Are you sure that it wasn't something else?


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    #1930
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    A blast of wind? Are you sure that it wasn't something else?

    yeah, all the leaves in the trees were blowing and all. Didn't really expect it since its gone all calm again. Strange but ill take it


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    #1931
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.


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    #1932
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.

    Do you want a tissue?

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #1933
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.

    You must be new around these parts


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    #1934
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.

    Wait....Fraxinus is that you?


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    #1935
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Abdullah Millions Cord wrote: »
    Wait....Fraxinus is that you?

    2+2=?


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    #1936
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.

    1 bad GFS run does not in any way throw down the curtain on the potential over the next few weeks. Some of the ensemble members tonight are extremely cold, some of them are showing really blocked conditions after next week with biting cold easterly or northeasterly conditions and the potential for blizzards.

    This is absolutely not the time to admit defeat.


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    #1937
    Buffalobill29
    Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭Buffalobill29


    Abdullah Millions Cord wrote: »
    Wait....Fraxinus is that you?

    Was just thinking that 😂, but on a real note the negativity oozing from that comment makes me picture buzz killington in my head.


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    #1938
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.
    It's like the premiership, Liverpool are at top now but who knows what will happen, the closer it get the more promising it looks. 2-3 weeks time we could have lots of snow everywhere or not.
    Crap analogy I know but..... Yeah


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    #1939
    acequion
    Registered Users Posts: 3,827 ✭✭✭acequion


    Jimbob1977 wrote: »
    My wife lit a fire today for the sake of it.

    It was around 12c!!!

    Very mild in Limerick.

    Sure isn't that what we were doing all over xmas,lighting a fire just for the sake of it :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    I give up really. I predict Atlantic muck for the rest of the winter, maybe even the summer as well,here in Kerry anyway. :(

    Maybe that poster who's heading to Canada to a real winter might take me with him. Please :)


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    #1940
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    It's all going downhill. I can sense it and the tone of the forum has sensed it too. While it was nice to have a quiet Christmas, weather wise, a bit of snow and frost in January would have been welcome. Later this week is nothing to get excited about, and then it will be back to the good old Atlantic muck, with not even a decent storm. I'm afraid the exciting weather of 2018 was a glitch in the matrix... An anolomy. Saddens me to post this. I'm disappointed.

    I have to agree.
    It’s like the wind has been taking out of this discussion.
    Ok I’ll get my coat.
    BTW I think it will snow.


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    #1941
    United road
    Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    I predict ridiculous amounts of snow soon....

    No logic behind saying this, but to me, it seems you can post in here about winter being over and snow chance of it getting cold, and thats without logic too
    So.............


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    #1942
    Franz Von Peppercorn
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    A fairly decent set of models today, except the GFS operational (but not the new operational model which showed Ireland in the cold) and which was an outlier in its ensemble suite. And even in that output Ireland just missed out on the UK cold, and it wouldn’t take much of a shift to get it.

    Fact is all the models are showing a cold spell coming as predicted.


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    #1943
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    I think the end of the GFS pub run is.. snowy?


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    #1944
    acequion
    Registered Users Posts: 3,827 ✭✭✭acequion


    Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »
    Fact is all the models are showing a cold spell coming as predicted.

    Really hope you're right.


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    #1945
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    some very exciting ensemble runs tonight, most are hinting at blocking after the 22nd of January with some bitterly cold east or north-east winds in about 10 days time. Some potentially very snowy runs as well.

    Not that many mild runs left at this stage and even some of those have wintry potential in them.


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    #1946
    Liffey4A
    Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭Liffey4A


    It's looking promising but I'd like some cross model agreement, seems to be very inconsistent.
    Hopefully by midweek we will have a grasp on what's coming


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    #1947
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The low coming up the east coast of the US will have some effect in strengthening the trough in Baffin Bay, which will help pump heights northward and form an upper ridge towards the Norwegian Sea. It will also help strengthen the Atlantic jet and allow it to undercut this northern upper ridge, which may just cut off and form some sort of transient upper block in about 10 days. Only transient because the pattern upstream over NA looks fairly zonal after it, so it remains to be seen what happens this high and if it allows a surface high to build. My guess is it won't and a zonal westerly pattern will see us into February.


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    #1948
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Mild and cold airmass competing as per usual. It could be cold and very mild in same week nothing exceptional for the next 10 days or so. I will believe in this predicted cold spell when i see both NAO and AO in Negative.


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    #1949
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,351 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Hope AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys is wrong.


    A new storm is expected to sweep through around midweek with some rain dampening more of the British Isles.

    Chilly winds in the storm's wake may trim temperatures back to more seasonable levels across the U.K. later in the week.

    In the longer range, windstorms are expected to return to the U.K. from late January into March.

    "A lack of true Arctic air will limit the risk for widespread snowfall from any of these storms; however, a couple of ice events are not out of the question," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.


    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-to-continue-to-escape-cold-shots-aimed-at-eastern-europe-into-early-week/70007107

    "Overall, we expect near-normal temperatures for the rest of the winter season across the U.K.," added Roys.


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    #1950
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    jirafa wrote: »
    AccuWeather

    Shower of muppets. About the same level of accuracy as the famous forecasting stone.


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    #1951
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yes at this stage there’s no point in trying to dress it up. It’s typical January winter fare as we see out the month. Wintry showers in on a PM airmass with sleet and wet snow to hills in the north and NW.
    Strongly agree with YanSno about AO and NAO


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