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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    highdef wrote: »
    I don't think are many people who would define 5 to 7cm of snow a dusting!

    lol...it was the same as here and only on the tops....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    highdef wrote: »
    I don't think are many people who would define 5 to 7cm of snow a dusting!

    Lol I mean for a mountain it’s a dusting. I’d love 7cm of snow on low ground any day ❄️❄️


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Lol I mean for a mountain it’s a dusting. I’d love 7cm of snow on low ground any day ❄️❄️

    I understood totally!When I saw it here could not believe it


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sryanbruen what are your thoughts on the chances of some cold weather (ie. snowy weather ;)) happening before Christmas?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,186 ✭✭✭✭IvySlayer


    Might as well cancel Christmas :mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Oscar seems to have revitalized the jet stream for the time being. Not too concerned about it, actually didn't want to see much cold air until early to mid December anyway for my scenario to remain valid. Both 2009 and 2010 had some quite mild weather in the first half of November and in 2009 that heavy rainfall event also.

    With regard to the research that some were discussing earlier, I will try to get a thread going this winter to discuss my research, not just rebooting the net-weather thread but adding some Irish content and incorporating some pressure data analysis that I managed to do since posting all that material on net-weather.

    The basic idea is to search out natural signals on many different time scales and then try to work out how they might interact so that a model called a temperature index can be created. My ideas have been out there in weather circles for 30-40 years, some of them are not exclusive to my research, and I have no way of knowing what others might have gleaned from that and put into operation in such places as, for example, the CFS model. I don't have the technology to create model-style maps but my index value theories would generate maps from anomalies. I think in any case if this method could be brought up to about 80% right side of normal it would operate better than any current system but I don't claim that it's much better than 60% at this point in time. (adjusting normal to something that will actually be a working median temperature in this slightly warmer epoch compared to all the research data). So look for that if you are interested in such discussions, it won't be really soon as I have some pressing work to do to get ready for winter here. Once the winter hits, I have a lot more time on my hands to do research and post on the internet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Has MT given the first winter 2018/2019 predictions yet. Just wondering ��❄️❄️


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Has MT given the first winter 2018/2019 predictions yet. Just wondering ��❄️❄️

    He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
    Let me summarise;
    It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,813 ✭✭✭NickNickleby


    Oh God!

    All I wanted was a bit of snow on Christmas Eve...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
    Let me summarise;
    It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.

    Ok on a serious note can someone send me a link to the post so I can read it lol


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  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Ok on a serious note can someone send me a link to the post so I can read it lol

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3911916

    This is the link on net weather where he goes by the name Roger J. Smith.

    Page 18 on this thread the correspondence about his forecast starts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,457 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Oh God!

    All I wanted was a bit of snow on Christmas Eve...
    Wrong novel Charles


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
    Let me summarise;
    It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.

    Love it! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Is the model discussion thread up yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Is the model discussion thread up yet.

    No, we’re still in Autumn and the FI thread combines Summer/Autumn this time around. Any long range models are posted here when appropriate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    leahyl wrote: »
    Sryanbruen what are your thoughts on the chances of some cold weather (ie. snowy weather ;)) happening before Christmas?

    Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

    As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

    As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.

    :( ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response :pac:


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,649 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    leahyl wrote: »
    :( ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response :pac:

    One year Leahyl... one year it'll all come together for us :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
    Let the games begin...

    brace-yourself-winter-is-coming-first-4019487.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
    Let the games begin...

    brace-yourself-winter-is-coming-first-4019487.png

    Yaaay, love when I see there has been a post from Nacho Libre cos it usually means something positive regarding blocking or something :-P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
    Let the games begin...

    What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).

    Yes. Also this was encouraging to read:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?do=findComment&comment=3919899


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
    Let the games begin...

    brace-yourself-winter-is-coming-first-4019487.png

    Link?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Yes, the UKMO Glosea5 November update is absolutely mind blowing for this Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), lots of northerly and easterly winds with a strong Greenland High which gets only stronger for the Jan-Feb-Mar period at the same time!

    Usual caveats apply here as ever with long range forecasting though, just be aware!

    PLluwWI.png

    e2g8Ymg.png

    Reminds me of December 2010.

    JowPC2h.png

    Stratosphere signals are looking decent for future cold with some minor disruptions. Remember, a SSW is not required nor does it guarantee cold for us. Late 2010 did not have a SSW! The troposphere and stratosphere were just very nice to us in 2010.

    As for Eurasian snow cover, my analogue of years similar to 2018 in this case looks very similar to December 2010 again and the UKMO Glosea5 above (December 2010 is in the analogue also)

    U1m9ckK.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.

    Still plenty of time for it to kick off before Chirstmas though right?! ;) A whiteout for Christmas would be nice.....thanks Santa :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Who knows, we could have a repeat of 8 years ago, but a lot of model watching to go, nothing certain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Good November snow really needs strong North/North Easterlies. It's not really until December that a continental easterly will deliver. At least the raging Atlantic seems to be gone on the charts!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Fantastic charts coming out. Still too early to be hunting for proper cold and also we have been here plenty of times before.


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