[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 6 June, 2009
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TODAY will become wet in most districts with showers evolving into longer periods of rain by late morning and afternoon. Winds will pick up to NE 20-35 mph with some higher gusts near northern coastlines. Highest temperatures will only be 12 to 14 C in most cases. Rainfalls of about 20-30 mms are possible especially through central districts then southern parts later.

TONIGHT will continue damp, the rain may taper to drizzle in some central and northern, western locations but a steady rain may continue in the southeast. Lows will be about 5 to 7 C and winds NNE 20-30 mph.

SUNDAY will bring slight improvements especially in western and some northern counties, where the sun could break through the heavy low overcast at times. Further east it may remain overcast all day with occasional showers, but to the west any showers are likely to be briefly heavy and could bring a rumble of thunder with them. Highs will reach about 16 C.

MONDAY will also be cloudy with scattered showers or outbreaks of rain at times, with highs near 15 C.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK is looking rather wet with frequent frontal bands of rain moving up from the southwest across Ireland. Hopefully this pattern will eventually shift far enough north to allow warmer air into the southeast and allow for some thunderstorm development (to give the weather crew something interesting to watch).

If anyone feels like updating this during the day, be my guest, I expect to be away from the internet for most of Saturday.

[Black Briar]

Fair play to you for this thread MT and you were and are on the ball.
Theres a low off the southeast as we speak and looking at the circulation and radar-it's going to remain wet and very wet for the next 12 hours in the areas it's currently raining.

There are some pulses of downpour rain over wales at the moment that are likely to circulate their way westwards into Ireland tonight.

Some large totals are indeed likely.
Here in south wicklow,I've recorded 11.2mm since noon and most of that has been since about 2pm and I've only been on the edge of the band,it's worse elsewhere,a lot worse.

[Danno]

Max of just 10.8c here today, some light rain before noon, got heavy around 2 to 3pm with heavier outbursts on and off all afternoon. Currently 12.8mm recorded with some more to come.

[nacho libre]

as i suspected earlier in the week we escaped the rain altogether today. i doubt we'll be so fortunate if normal service is resumed from the south west during next week.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 8 June, 2009
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TODAY will start out relatively calm and dry except for some drizzle in a few southern districts. Eventually, some light rain will develop from the south and reach about as far north as Limerick to Dublin. This will come with gusty E to NE winds by late afternoon. Highs will reach about 14 C in the south, east and northeast, and as high as 16 C in the northwest, where some longer sunny intervals could develop.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with more light rain in the south, to partly cloudy in the far north. Lows will generally be 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will bring an interval of dry and perhaps sunny weather before more cloud spreads in, bringing another steady rainfall this time to most of the country, by evening. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out with rain and this could become thundery in places, with lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY will bring a cooler northerly wind to start the day, as the rain moves east and some clearing develops. By afternoon and evening there may be a fair amount of sunshine and highs near 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY appears likely to bring another rainfall, possibly heavy at times, as more humid air arrives with a frontal system. The morning lows will be around 13 C, then afternoon temperatures 17 or 18 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is looking unsettled and possibly thundery at times, with some sunny intervals as well, as fronts and troughs sweep across Ireland from the southwest. It will be relatively warm and rather humid, with highs around 19 or 20 C.

I have the feeling that details will change fairly often especially on the timing of various periods of rain this week, and I hope the experisnced weather watchers will post plenty of updates as things evolve.

[M.T. Cranium]

Just a brief update, it would appear that this evening's showers will be mostly confined to the western third of Ireland, and when these develop they have a tendency to move from east to west, so (this for the more novice readers out there) if you're thinking of some outside activities and wondering if you'll get wet or stay dry, have a look not to the west as you might normally do, but over to the east or northeast for any approaching showers. One or two of them could be thundery by the looks of the radar.

From this evening to the weekend, see the above forecast, nothing much has changed on more recent forecast runs. The weekend is looking very interesting from the weather point of view, with very warm and humid air moving north out of France towards southern England, and deep low pressure developing south of Ireland and moving across the country on Saturday. This would suggest development of a strong frontal system with lots of energy for thunderstorms to form (on Saturday afternoon and evening) to be followed by more unstable and possibly thundery weather on Sunday. Stay tuned then.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 9 June, 2009
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Well, as interesting as last week's weather may have been, this week is setting a new standard for dullness in more ways than one. Weak, low-energy weather systems are drifting northeast across the southern parts of Ireland and the UK, with brief dry if not clear spells in between.

TODAY will see the last of the rain in the southeast from the overnight disturbance, then very gradual clearing should follow although sunshine may be at a premium anywhere but Donegal and Mayo, which could get some longer spells. (amended to read, another area of rain will form over the southwest and drift slowly towards south central Ireland late today, 10-15 mms possible here.) Highs today will reach 14 or 15 C, could be held down to 12 C by persistent cloud in a few eastern locales.

TONIGHT should see a brief clearing trend early on in the northern half of the country, followed by more cloud moving in ahead of another weak trough. Some light rain will persist in the south and may spread towards the Dublin area later on. Lows will be generally 6 to 9 C, to 10-11 C in the southwest.

WEDNESDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, some of these possibly thundery, although this disturbance is so weak that it could just become a case of localized showers and some sunny breaks for a lucky few. Highs will reach about 15 C.

THURSDAY should see some low cloud in the early morning and perhaps some clearing in the west around dawn, this spreading slowly east all morning to give a partly sunny mid-day and afternoon, although we can't totally rule out an isolated shower. Lows will be about 5 to 8 C and highs around 16 or 17 C.

FRIDAY is looking showery and a bit warmer or at least more humid making it feel warmer, lows of about 10 C and highs near 18 C. One or two of these showers could have thunder, probably in the south inland from the coast.

THE WEEKEND was looking more interesting on some earlier forecast runs, now it looks warm and rather dry under a weak ridge of high pressure, but this seems subject to more change so I'll just say, watch this space until we get a more definitive set of maps later today perhaps. I'm sure the general public will like warm, dry whereas the weather crew here will be rooting for thunderstorms.

[M.T. Cranium]

The forecast continues very similar with a succession of weak troughs and ridges in a slack southwesterly flow pattern.

Wednesday, 10 June, 2009

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with showers and possibly a brief thundershower mainly confined to the southern half of Ireland. Some places could have a few hours of sunshine, especially the far north. Highs will be 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy with a few more showers at first, tending to clear slowly from west to east around sunrise. Lows will be 7 to 9 C and there will be a chilly northerly breeze over eastern districts and the Irish Sea.

THURSDAY will bring some longer intervals of sunshine, with just a slight risk of an isolated shower over the central parts of Ireland. Highs will be 17 or 18 except close to the south coast where it may be held to 14 C by sea breezes.

FRIDAY will become partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, and risk of a brief thundershower. Highs will be about 18 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking fairly warm with at least some sunshine each day, and a low probability of showers, mainly in the southwest. Highs may reach 20 to 22 C in some inland sections.

NEXT WEEK promises some unstable conditions with frontal systems developing and moving into this warmer air mass around late Monday and Tuesday, so this is when there may be some thunderstorm action (notice how this keeps moving back, as the models pick up on blocking over western Europe, but eventually this should break down and allow the fronts to develop).

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 11 June, 2009
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TODAY will be somewhat cloudy to start in northern and eastern districts, and there could be light showers in a few places. Sunshine will develop early in western and southern parts and spread to the east later, while the north stays partly cloudy. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C.

TONIGHT will start out clear, and quite cool, with rural districts dropping to about 6 or 7 C by midnight or 0100h, cities closer to 10 C, but later in the night cloud will spread in and temperatures will be closer to 12 C by daybreak.

FRIDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies, a few showers or periods of light rain, and the chance of a brief heavier thundershower. Highs will be 17 or 18 C.

SATURDAY is looking cloudy in the west, partly cloudy further east, and there will be a threat of showers or even thundershowers in western districts; some eastern parts of the country may stay dry. Lows will be around 12 C and highs around 19 or 20 C.

SUNDAY also looks partly cloudy and rather warm with a few more showers or thunderstorms mainly in western districts. Lows will be 10-12 C and highs around 19 to 21 C.

MONDAY is looking cloudy with showers, and TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY could see some more organized thunderstorm development and gusty SW winds at times. Temperatures through this period should be near 20 C in the daytime and near 12 C overnight.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 12 June, 2009
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TODAY, light rain or drizzle at first in regions north of Dublin, then an interval with hazy and rather warm conditions mid-day in most regions, followed by some heavy showers with risk of a thundershower in the southwest around mid-day, these arriving further east by late afternoon. Highs generally 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT will see further showers with warm and humid conditions, lows of about 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both be warm, humid with occasional showers, heavier in the western parts of Ireland, with some risk of thunderstorms. There may be some longer intervals of sunshine in the east, and highs both days should reach 21 or 22 C in some inland sections, 18 to 20 C more likely near the coasts.

MONDAY will also be unsettled with heavy showers and risk of a thunderstorm, and highs near 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY may bring some longer dry intervals and some sunshine in places, followed by periods of rain later in the day and overnight, highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY is looking warm, with thundery showers and strong SW breezes, highs near 21 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK it should start to turn cooler with gusty W to NW winds, showers, and highs only 14-15 C by about Friday.

[M.T. Cranium]

UPDATE _ Friday, 7:20 pm
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If you happen to be near Lough Derg, there are heavy showers and probably some thunder embedded, from their radar appearance, moving slowly northeast across that district. The rest of the evening should be dry in most of Ireland other than a few clusters of heavy showers in the west (to centre eventually), it doesn't look as though any of this activity will drift into the Dublin region for example. Seems that the chilly sea breeze has held firm today near the shoreline in eastern Ireland too.

Tomorrow looks like a repeat performance in general, some residual showers or low cloud left over from tonight's dying showers, then a hazy and warm mid-day followed by more heavy showers and possible thunderstorms developing mostly over the western half of the country. Sorry that it's a little difficult to be very precise on any of this, one thing that is known is that whatever develops, will tend to move slowly northeast, the gradient winds expected tonight through to Sunday are mainly light southerly winds of 5-10 knots.

[paulhac]

Thanks M.T. for all your updates during the week. You mention Dublin there .I think it will be Monday before we see any sparks if at all
Cheers Paul

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 13 June, 2009
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TODAY will start out rather cloudy in most areas, hazy sunshine in some western districts, and the odd shower possible this morning around Dublin, before hazy sunshine takes over for a while, and then more afternoon and evening heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms move into western districts from the Atlantic. Highs will range from 21 C in some central districts to about 17 C near most of the coastal sections.

TONIGHT will become misty or foggy as the showers die out, and rather warm with lows only 11-14 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms developing, this time possibly more towards the eastern part of the country as well. Highs will be generally 18-20 C.

MONDAY will bring frequent showers and the possibility of a heavy thundershower, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will see some clearing and warm temperatures near 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will be showery and warm with risk of a thunderstorm. Highs will be about 20 to 22 C.

What has changed is the outlook for later in the week -- at this time, the computer models have scrubbed the cooling trend and are keeping things quite warm through Friday and next weekend. In fact it could turn even somewhat warmer by then.

Have a fabulous weekend whatever the weather brings.

[Mobhi1]

Thanks M.T. These forecasts are great. A bit more specific than most others. One of the first places I go now if I want a reliable forecast.

[force eleven]

Thanks MT. Certainly saw the thunderstorms today here, after a lovely first half to the day. More of the same tomorrow it seems and for part of next week, the hit and miss nature of storms make them infuriating to the observer though...