Spoilers UFC 129: St.Pierre v Shields Spoilers

Zero-Cool · 27-04-2011 2:52pm

SDTimeout wrote: »

He's also a massive 9/1 for a win by Submission

Thats well worth a tenner!

SDTimeout · 27-04-2011 2:56pm

sheehy83 wrote: »

Thats well worth a tenner!

It really is, for me this isn't a fight i will be disappointed by regardless of the outcome. I would love a shake but and i really like Shields AJJ style. Where if GSP loses we will see a monster in his next fight assuming he comes back the right way.

OR we could see another fantastic side to GSP as he destroys Jake Shields this weekend. Not to mention the atmosphere there is going to be off the chart. 55,000 people screaming for GSP is going to be surreal.

JoeyJJ · 27-04-2011 3:36pm

Thats a good price for me if Shields wins its most likely buy Sub however I think GSP has the edge to win. Doesn't mean i don't stick a fiver on it

As long as it goes at least 3 rounds and its exciting I don't care who wins to be honest.

Zero-Cool · 27-04-2011 3:50pm

Exactly what I think, only way Shields wins this is by sub. If it goes 5 rounds, GSP will just completely wear him down and win on points.

Ush1 · 27-04-2011 3:58pm

I reckon from the criticism and the way he's been talking, GSP will be gunning for a finish big time. Probably not a sub but ya never know!

27-04-2011 8:06pm

Ush1 wrote: »

I reckon from the criticism and the way he's been talking, GSP will be gunning for a finish big time. Probably not a sub but ya never know!

Hendo went for the finish in the first round against Shields but he survived. People don't realise how resilient Shields is. GSP won't be able to finish Shields if Hendo's Overhand From Hell didn't. (it was close enough though)

Mellor · 28-04-2011 2:44am

Deleted User wrote: »

Hendo went for the finish in the first round against Shields but he survived. People don't realise how resilient Shields is. GSP won't be able to finish Shields if Hendo's Overhand From Hell didn't. (it was close enough though)

Just because Hendo didn't finish him in 1 doesn't mean GSP has no chance of finishing him. There is so much in MMA that comes down to chance and timing, nothing more so than knockouts.
Hendo might of finished him half the time, but now people talk about a glass jaw and hope he might get knocked out

Mellor · 29-04-2011 4:27am

UFC 129
not all fights cover here, but a decent run down of my thoughts

Predictions:

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Henderson coming off a lose against Pettis (the former WEC lightweight champ who lost his belt on the merger). But brought us that WTF moment when he ran up and jumped off the cage to deliver a head kick. Bocek had a recent lose to Jim Miller, but gave the younger of the UFC Siblings his toughest bout yet. It's very close, Bocek is a BJJ blackbelt, with a Blackbelt in Karate, Henderson is a BJJ brown belt with a blackbelt in TKD. It's clsoe but I think this one stays standing and Henderson's striking is best.
Henderson by decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Looking forward to this one the most. Randy is a hero. Lyoto went from being my favourite fighter to one of my most disliked. He initially was excellant, elusive, great strikes and never got hit. Then he won the belt and he became boring. Shogun ripped him apart and he was never the same. He is on a 2 (well really 3) fight losing streak and needs to win this to stay near the top of the division (or even in the UFC). For Randy, he has nothing to win or lose and he'll still leave it all out there.
Randy fights best as a dirty boxer. Clinch, and control against the cage. A polar opposite to the pounce, strike, evade tactics of "The Dragon". Machida has shown he can hold his own agaisnt powerful fighters like Rampage and I expect him to take the win here. I can't see him leaving it in the hands of the Judges seeing as his two most recent decisions (Shogun & Rampage) were questioned by more than a few people.
Machida by TKO in the 3rd

Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo finally makes his UFC debut. The UFC worlds is about to see what the MMA world has known for a long time. Aldo is top 3 pound for pound in the world. Unbelievably fast. Unreal striking. And, similar to Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt that rarely chooses to use these skills. He crippled Faber with leg kicks. I except him to do the same to Hominick, who has left them unchecked before. Follow up with a big head kick, or flying knee to drop him, finishing it on the ground.
Aldo by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd

Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Jake Shields
Jake Shields has a much better chance of winning than the odds suggest. He has unreal BJJ. Or rather American JJ as he refers to it as. GSP is also a black belt, but this is a situation where not all black belts are equal. Their wrestling is probably near equal - Shields is better at dominating on the ground. George has better takedown defence. However, GSP is better everywhere else, faster and definitely has better cardio/stamina.
It terms of striking, GSP is clinical. His double jab ripped Koschek apart. And is well able to throw a head kick. Shields is clunky on his feet, not really looking comfortable striking. He throws look kicks at will, due to a lack of fear of being put on his back.
If shields wants to win, he needs a sub in the first two rounds imo.
I expect GSP to push the pace early, but keep his distance and importantly, keep it standing.
Weighing up everything. I expect GSP to win by 4th or 5th round TKO or decision

mailburner · 29-04-2011 12:17pm

i think hominick will do well to make it past the 1st round
aldo by ko/tko 8/11 looks a very big price for this one

I fancy henderson but i'm torn between sub or points

i've a sneaking feeling randy might hold out for 3 rounds
but lose by ud
a couple of years ago id be putting the house on machida
for a knockout but im not so sure these days with machida.
He should really be putting couture away though
i think if randy makes it past the first two rounds i think
machida probably won't have to do much in the third
to get a unanimous dec
machida by ud

gsp/shields
nothing but a very comfortable points win for gsp

one other fight im really looking forward to is diaz v mac donald
this is my idea for fotn and im hoping this one stays standing

fakearms123 · 29-04-2011 1:55pm

Hey I'm thinking about putting down a tenner on Jake Shields winning by submission on Paddy Power because he's at a 9/1 for submitted GSP, its a long shot but I could win €90. And I was thinking of putting down a tenner on Randy beating Lyoto by decision with is a 9/2. What do you think? Is it a waste of money?

29-04-2011 2:38pm

fakearms123 wrote: »

Hey I'm thinking about putting down a tenner on Jake Shields winning by submission on Paddy Power because he's at a 9/1 for submitted GSP, its a long shot but I could win €90. And I was thinking of putting down a tenner on Randy beating Lyoto by decision with is a 9/2. What do you think? Is it a waste of money?

Definitely not. Randy can never be counted out and is good odds at 9/2. Machida has great wrestling for a Brazilian fighter too.
I think the bookies are being a bit naive giving 9/1 on Shields winning by sub. He has a very good chance of subbing GSP, Shields is a very high level black belt in Gracie Jiu Jitsu and has (a bigger than some people think) edge on the ground, they showed a video of him rolling with Phil Davis the other day, take in mind Phil is a 205'er and I think he cuts ~30 pounds off his natural weight to fight there so you can bet he was 240 when Shields was rolling with him. Great bargain on that bet imo.

On another note did anyone see the primetime episode three. Jakes dad says "Jake always does what's unexpected, And I expect him to win!" :pac:

t-ha · 29-04-2011 3:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Hendo went for the finish in the first round against Shields but he survived. People don't realise how resilient Shields is. GSP won't be able to finish Shields if Hendo's Overhand From Hell didn't. (it was close enough though)

Wrong! GSP can punch harder than Rampage or Cain Valasquez and can even punch harder than Shogun can kick!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzmUhhB8SmA&feature=player_embedded

That's right! 2,859 lbs of force! That's 33% more than Ivan Drago's best punch in Rocky IV after a boat-load of steroids and an awesome montage sequence!!! And it doesn't stop there - 3,477 lbs in a kick! 6,000 lbs of force total delivered in a sequence in under a second! This god-like creature known as GSP could make Drago his bitch, kick Shoguns shins into splinters and probably knock out the somehow ever-concious Rocky Balboa!!! That does it, I am off to tear out both my kneecaps, paint them like ladybugs, put them on my desk as paperweights, and then sell that desk to pay for my new jetpack BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY WE’RE LIVING IN A ****ING FANTASY WORLD.

Yeah, that or Sports Science is BS... :rolleyes:

conor678 · 29-04-2011 3:29pm

I saw that on the prime time episode. Jake Shields was controlling Phil Davis on the floor and that was a real eye opener (doubt they were doing it just for the cameras). Also you have to remember he did the same with Henderson. Saying that he has to get GSP on the floor in the first place which is easier said then done.

I predict a tepid first round whereby GSP jabs the head off Shields a few times and fights off a couple of take downs. More of the same in the 2nd whereby GSP will be taken down and get back up then a few more jabs and then a 3rd round TKO to GSP!

Saying that 9/1 in Paddy Powers for Sub of the night with Shields is tempting!

jayteecork · 29-04-2011 3:33pm

This seems to be the biggest MMA drought in a while, can't wait for this one.

JoeyJJ · 29-04-2011 3:42pm

Damn Shields down to 7/1 now to win by Sub, probably save me a few quid still fancy GSP to take him just.

Snappy the Moose · 29-04-2011 4:03pm

The primetime shows are merely for entertainment, I wouldn't be confident betting on the outcomes of fights because we saw a 2 minute clip of somebody sparring or rolling.

I love Randy but it will take Machida to have a serious off day for him to win. Everybody knows he was beaten by Vera, and his last two fights can't really be counted as competitive fights. You can't count him out but I really am, he just won't be good enough to implement his Greko-Roman style as he will eat punches/kicks on the way in.

Shields is probably worth a bet at those odds.

29-04-2011 4:16pm

Snappy the Moose wrote: »

I love Randy but it will take Machida to have a serious off day for him to win. Everybody knows he was beaten by Vera, and his last two fights can't really be counted as competitive fights. You can't count him out but I really am, he just won't be good enough to implement his Greko-Roman style as he will eat punches/kicks on the way in.

Yeah it's a fight where I don't know who to back. I want Machida to get back and have another go at Rampage. But I want Couture to retire respectfully. Hopefully he doesn't get KO'd Chuck style.

Pride Fighter · 29-04-2011 6:12pm

Randy is only a month or 2 shy of 48. What a man, what an athlete. With Liddell and Randy retired, GSP is the biggest star left in the UFC. Its a changing of the guard this UFC, it'll go down as a turning point in MMA history.

29-04-2011 7:25pm

Will Randy be dancing tomorrow?

Oh_Noes · 29-04-2011 7:30pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Will Randy be dancing tomorrow?

He does a better job than Buffer tbh

Early weigh-ins tonight, 9pm our time live on the interwebs

MoonDancer · 29-04-2011 9:14pm

How do we watch the weigh in online?

Never mind, found it

Oh_Noes · 29-04-2011 9:32pm

Steven Segal cornering Lyoto machida :pac:

Never knew the guy was so tall, he looked like the tallest person on the stage by a foot!

onlyasuggestion · 30-04-2011 2:55am

From: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=dm-meltzer_ufc129_hominick_weight_controversy042911

TORONTO – A procedural error led to controversy over the weigh-in of featherweight title contender Mark Hominick the day before UFC’s biggest live event in history.
Hominick weighed in at 145.25 pounds according to the scale reading at the Ricoh Coliseum, which was the initial public announcement for the championship fight against Jose Aldo Jr., but it was then listed as being 145 pounds.
While the difference sounds minuscule, 145 is the exact limit for a featherweight title fight. If a fighter goes over the mark, the match is supposed to become non-title.

Seems like it doesn't really matter now but don't they usually allow for a pound in case the scales are off?

scudzilla · 30-04-2011 3:09am

onlyasuggestion wrote: »

From: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=dm-meltzer_ufc129_hominick_weight_controversy042911

Seems like it doesn't really matter now but don't they usually allow for a pound in case the scales are off?

Not for title fights

Mellor · 30-04-2011 6:19am

It's not because the scales are off. 1lb off is a really ****ty scales, these thigns are accurate.

They just give 1lb grace for fighters, with the exception of title fights

baaaa · 30-04-2011 3:09pm

It's time for an upset like this and Shields is perfectly placed to deliver. It should've happened with Siva and Sonnen but the gods saw fit to postpone it for a bit longer,now is the time.
GSPs record is more padded than people think and I don't think he's gonna be able to stop Shields from applying his game,no one has been able to for ages.
GSP doesn't have any h-bombs either and I don't see him getting away with too many leg kicks or jabs before Shields runs him down and sticks to him.

SDTimeout · 30-04-2011 3:47pm

Bets for tonight.

Submission of the night - Jake Shields ( If he gets the sub, it must be considered SOTN, ) 20-1

Shields to win in any round (5) of them and the lowest is 16/1 . If you really fancied sheilds there's a great spread betting chance here. Highest is 25/1 for RD 4 and 5.

I fancy a lot of subs tonight, Hit Squads BJJ coach Kyle Watson is 3/1 and Mark Bocek ( 3/4th best BJJ in the UFC IMO ) is 3/1 but he's against Ben Henderson.

I'm going to try that accumulator of Shields, Bocek and Watson all by sub. It's 128/1 and I've seen a lot worse shots than that.

Going to cover myself however with a bet on GSP by KO or Submission also at 11/10. I can't see this one going the distance since GSP has said he doesn't want it to. " Blink and you'll miss it " were his words at the weigh in. With that in mind a small bet on the fight to finish in the first round.

Heading off to cage contender now, hoping to make it back here for the prelims tonight. Chat later guys

unknown13 · 30-04-2011 7:01pm

SDTimeout wrote: »

Bets for tonight.

Submission of the night - Jake Shields ( If he gets the sub, it must be considered SOTN, ) 20-1

Unless we see a flying armbar or some other mad sub. If Shields does win by sub we should see Shields picking up the bonus.

Did anyone else see Phil Nurse talking out of his arse on the third episode of Primetime. He said GSP is better thatn Shields at everything. What bull, Shields has the best BJJ in the WW division.

scudzilla · 30-04-2011 7:18pm

unknown13 wrote: »

Unless we see a flying armbar or some other mad sub. If Shields does win by sub we should see Shields picking up the bonus.

Did anyone else see Phil Nurse talking out of his arse on the third episode of Primetime. He said GSP is better thatn Shields at everything. What bull, Shields has the best BJJ in the WW division.

AJJ

;)

rabbitinlights · 30-04-2011 7:44pm

Are the Facebook prelims starting at 11pm and the main event on ESPN is at 1pm?

S.

***Spoilers UFC 129: St.Pierre v Shields Spoilers***

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Spoilers UFC 129: St.Pierre v Shields Spoilers