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Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

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  • #92
    KildareP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭KildareP


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    The Met Eireann 7 day rainfall map has been consistently downgrading precipitation over the last 24 hours. It is now showing none practically for the east coast. This is based upon the Harmonie I believe. Just to temper expectations with the official forecast not as gung ho currently. There does seem to be a view here that something spectacular is in the offing but it's not quite adding up for me.

    Met Eireann's forecasts were completely off the mark last time around too. I believe it's due to the sporadic nature of these types of events, you just can't tell when or where they'll happen.

    For most of the last thunderstorm event the majority of the rain which ultimately materialised never showed up on the forecast for those areas at any stage (plus there were other areas, like my own, that showed all set to receive 20mm+ of rain in the space of a few hours yet there wasn't so much as a drop of rain for a very wide radius).


  • #93
    Comhrá
    Registered Users Posts: 4,747 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    Rookie question -

    What sort of clouds should I be looking out for? Don’t want to be searching skies to my south when the action is building in the north.

    This sort of thing. Can't miss them really:

    XpOhjBWl.jpg

    x9wE8AOl.jpg


  • #94
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    I hope we are all looking out at the Irish sea at what could of been. Prefer a nice calm night.


  • #95
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.


  • #96
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.

    The toning down is probably based on their model assessments which maybe show less widespread storms than previously forecast. The toning down of language is reflected in their rainfall maps.


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  • #97
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,681 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.

    Expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed.


  • #98
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    I've attached a screen grab of peak activity as shown on met website. No longer shows any precipitation for east coast for next 24 hours. Northwest is in firing line for a storm according to this, but not until after midnight. No activity showing for eastern Ireland anymore. Let's see if it is right. Yesterday morning it showed widespread very heavy precipitation over large parts of ireland.


  • #99
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    the damp squids

    cant wait to piss all of this thread later,regardless of what materialises,like people did with the storms in the west last week.


  • #100
    SouthWesterly
    Registered Users Posts: 6,429 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Am I right in saying this is a non event for the SW.


  • #101
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,844 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed.




    We don't need the weather forum so:eek::D


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  • #102
    Davaeo09
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    lovely morning here in kilkenny

    very warm already


  • #103
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Don't be focusing too much on precipitation forecasts as rainfall can sometimes evaporate before reaching the ground with elevated storms.

    Met Éireann's aviation chart for 12Z shows an area C covering all of Ireland and extending southeastwards down over Land's End and NW France. A trough is shown over Brest, moving northwestwards at 30 knots.

    Weather description for this area is as follows:

    Generally fine, but isolated (occasional near troughs) heavy showers/thunderstorms with hail, Cb bases 3000-6000 ft, and isolated coastal fog.


  • #104
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Meteorite58 will come in with a haymaker of a prediction soon and the rollercoaster goes up again ;)


  • #105
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    squarecircles wrote: »
    the damp squids

    cant wait to piss all of this thread later,regardless of what materialises,like people did with the storms in the west last week.

    Are you well?

    Pretty much everyone looked on in envy of the storms last week out West. There was no pissing all over the thread, widespread acknowledgement of how incredible some of those storms seemed.

    Your continued anger on this forum towards people in the East is frankly weird. It's just weather. Lighten up.


  • #106
    Comhrá
    Registered Users Posts: 4,747 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    SouthWesterly wrote: »
    Am I right in saying this is a non event for the SW.

    Sadly I'd say you're right. In years of watching this sort of set-up with a humid southeasterly flow and our proximity to the Atlantic, I can't really ever recall significant thunderstorms developing in the Southwest of the country. At best, storms usually develop no further west than the Limk/ Tipp border. Maybe an isolated cell may pop up somewhere west of that line, but that's the most I'd expect.

    These storms from Spanish plumes usually run east of a line from say, Waterford to east Mayo so west Munster will miss out as usual. Hope I'm wrong though!


  • #107
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,257 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

    What time is this weather change?


  • #108
    The One Doctor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,339 ✭✭✭The One Doctor


    lawred2 wrote: »
    gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

    What time is this weather change?

    8-10pm and on.


  • #109
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,257 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    The One Doctor wrote: »
    8-10pm and on.

    grand - should get a full day out of this sun then


  • #110
    SouthWesterly
    Registered Users Posts: 6,429 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Davaeo09 wrote: »
    lovely morning here in kilkenny

    very warm already

    Where else would people moan about something they can't control.

    Overcast day in North Kerry. 19.2C
    998 hpa. NNE wind 1.7 m/s


  • #111
    Muscles Schultz
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 302 ✭✭Muscles Schultz


    The question needed to be asked - I’m driving from Dunmore East at 8pm to Dublin Airport to take a flight to Kerry to collect a dog for my one legged mother.....will it be safe to do so?


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  • #112
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,870 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Hate to throw a spanner in the works

    From Met Eireann


    Tonight will be very mild and humid, with further scattered heavy and
    thundery downpours and with a risk of hail and spot flooding. The risk of
    thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht


  • #113
    Davaeo09
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Hate to throw a spanner in the works

    how has it moved so far north?


  • #114
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,257 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Hate to throw a spanner in the works

    Saw BBC weather earlier that had some sort of concentrated cell hitting east coast directly... Dublin was bang in the middle.

    Didn't seem to go near Connacht


  • #115
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,870 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Seems to be showers developing to the South West

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/


  • #116
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

    7110_0_2006242306.png


  • #117
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,432 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Hate to throw a spanner in the works

    Met Eireann:

    The risk of
    thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM-e46xdcUo


  • #118
    Wine Goddess
    Registered Users Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

    Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!


  • #119
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,094 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Wine Goddess wrote: »

    Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!

    Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

    Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.


  • #120
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Why would met eireann get it so wrong when Ireland weather is their only focus
    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

    Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.


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  • #121
    Paso Fino
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭Paso Fino


    Very hot and muggy when I was out at 8am - house is roasting, even with every window open - I need a fan!!


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