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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

  • 14-01-2020 1:07pm
    #1
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭


    <Mod note: - now that the election is over, all discussion of same is in this thread. Please don't start any more treads on the election. There is a separate thread on the new Dail and the election of the new Taoiseach and there is also a General Irish Government thread for when (if) a new government is formed>

    Now that the election is called, we are likely to have several threads going on the election itself.

    Opinion polls are an interesting part of every election campaign and I think it would be interesting to have a separate thread dedicated to the topic of opinion polls for the election.

    Topics to be covered could include:

    - results of opinion polls, both local and national
    - analysis of opinion polls
    - trends in opinion polls and likely implications
    - performance of different opinion poll companies
    - constituency predictions based on opinion polls
    - opinion polls versus last election

    Discussions of political issues would be limited i.e. someone might say "FF look to be up because of the fallout from the RIC" but discussion of the rights and wrongs of the RIC issue would be off-topic. The idea would be that this thread would be free of political issues back and forth, but look at the numbers only.

    Debate on the election issues could be in a separate thread, or if the issue is big enough, in their own thread. If mods disagree, they can lock and delete.

    Who do you intend voting for? 215 votes

    Fine Gael
    66% 144 votes
    Fianna Fail
    7% 16 votes
    Sinn Fein
    6% 14 votes
    Labour
    7% 16 votes
    Greens
    0% 0 votes
    People Before Profit
    5% 12 votes
    Independents for Change
    0% 0 votes
    Social Democrats
    0% 0 votes
    Renua
    3% 7 votes
    Aontu
    0% 2 votes
    Independent
    0% 1 vote
    Other
    1% 3 votes


«134567…193

Comments

  • #2
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_general_election

    As a reminder to what happened at the last general election, the first preference votes and seats for the various parties were:


    Fine Gael|25.5%|50
    Fianna Fail|24.3%|44
    Sinn Fein|13.8%|23
    Labour|6.6%|7
    AAA-PBP|3.9%|6
    I4C|1.5%|4
    Social Democrats|3.0%|3
    Green|2.7%|2
    Renua|2.2%|0
    Independent Alliance|4.2%|6
    Independent|11.7%|13
    Others|0.6%|0


  • #3
    Dymo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,557 ✭✭✭Dymo


    Is there a site were I can see all the candidates in each constituency?


  • #4
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,603 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Dymo wrote: »
    Is there a site were I can see all the candidates in each constituency?

    Declarations aren't even open yet; so for now Adrian Kavanagh is probably most detailed:
    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

    Some parties haven't picked anyone yet; also expect to see some trimming where FF/FG have 3 or 4 candidates or SF have 2.


  • #5
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    What about the 2019 local elections?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Irish_local_elections

    While local elections are different to national elections, they will give a pointer to trends in polling data e.g. are the Greens still gaining? was the fall in Sinn Fein support temporary? etc. Will try and keep same position in table as last post

    Fine Gael|25.26%
    Fianna Fail|26.92%
    Sinn Fein|9.48%
    Labour|5.73%
    Solidarity-PBP|1.93%
    I4C|0.5%
    Social Democrats|2.28%
    Green|5.55%
    Renua|0.58%
    Independent Alliance|-
    Independent|19.54%
    Aontu|1.48%


    Since the general election, AAA-PBP now run as Solidarity-PBP (not sure if they will run together in the this election) and Aontu are a new party. The numbers don't add up to 100% as I haven't added up the very small numbers of the very small parties.

    Not hugely different to the general election, 2% up for Fianna Fail puts them ahead of FG, but remember it was a mid-term election where incumbents rarely do well. Sinn Fein down 4% but the previous general election was their highest ever. The Greens were the story of the election, but they actually didn't get as many votes as Labour - the real successes for the Greens were in the Euros. All of the far left parties lost support. However, none of the changes were statistically significant so it can't be seen as a revolutionary election.


  • #6
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Locals are a measure of sorts but they do produce all sorts of candidates, most of whom wouldn't have a hope in the GE. The Independent vote in the GE is also many headed. The overall trends in polls to me are a better starting point. Mostly I'd expect groups to be where they've averaged. SF may drop that 5%, in which case seats will go a tumbling! The only question at present is where will the FF and FG vote share land. IMO one or other will hit high twenties maybe even 30%. Can't see a bigger party being higher than that unless they have a spectacular election.


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  • #7
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    L1011 has already provided the link to Adrian Kavanagh's site which is a good place to go for candidate lists and polling analysis.

    There hasn't been anything on this website since 2016, but might be worth checking if it gets going again for this election:

    https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/

    Final link to look at is the election betting. Paddy Power have a comprehensive range of bets with under/over voting percentages for the main parties at the time of writing are as follows:

    Fine Gael|26.55%
    Fianna Fail|26.55%
    Sinn Fein|12.55%
    Labour|6.55%
    Greens|7.55%

    Not very illuminating, could have written those myself. Next government is more interesting, with a wide range of options.

    FF/SD/Lab/Green at 5/1, the same combination with FG instead at 6/1 with FG/FF at 7/1 suggesting the two main parties will try and avoid a second confidence and supply arrangement if the numbers are there. Sinn Fein's first look-in is as FF/SF at 12/1 which is probably relying on the historical reluctance to go into government. Might have a splurge as I think that is more likely than 12/1.

    So on we go.


  • #8
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Locals are a measure of sorts but they do produce all sorts of candidates, most of whom wouldn't have a hope in the GE. The Independent vote in the GE is also many headed. The overall trends in polls to me are a better starting point. Mostly I'd expect groups to be where they've averaged. SF may drop that 5%, in which case seats will go a tumbling! The only question at present is where will the FF and FG vote share land. IMO one or other will hit high twenties maybe even 30%. Can't see a bigger party being higher than that unless they have a spectacular election.

    Agree with you on the locals but I was providing some contextual background and information to get the thread going. Similarly, with the Paddy Power post, not very illuminating, but if the odds change over the election campaign, it will be informative then.


  • #9
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Thanks for this thread. Presume we'll have polls at the weekend.


  • #10
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Results of the most recent Sunday Times opinion poll taken just before Christmas.

    FG - 27%
    FF - 27%
    SF - 20%
    Lab - 6%
    Greens - 6%
    PBP - 3%
    IA - 2%
    Inds/Others - 9%

    Pretty close to the results of the local elections and the odds being offered by Paddy Power. Only major difference is the high percentage for SF. Looking at previous opinion polls SF seem to consistently poll higher in Times polls, Red C has them hovering in the low teens for most of last year. Polling data since 2016 available here if anyone is interested

    Presume we'll get the first polls of the election out this weekend, will be interesting to see where they go. Personally I think the whole election could be very tight between FG & FF.


  • #11
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Yes, it really is about whether FG or FF get the most seats. If the largest party can't form a coalition Govn't with its own majority, then they use a confidence and supply arrangement.
    Don't see either going into Govn't with SF, when they have the above 2 options.
    FF usually poll a bit below what they actually get but then are less, transfer friendly than FG.


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  • #12
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Is it possible to vote by post if out of the country on that date?


  • #13
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,603 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Is it possible to vote by post if out of the country on that date?

    For nearly all circumstances, no.

    You need to be away on state business more or less.

    I held off booking tickets/flights to a gig to see what date got announced and I'm still dithering about whether I'll get back in time on the 8th
    Water John wrote: »
    Thanks for this thread. Presume we'll have polls at the weekend.

    I'm expecting one Saturday and one Sunday probably. One of Irish Times / Saturday Indo for Saturday; then on Sunday Times / Mail on Sunday / SBP / Sunday Indo

    RTE and Paddy Power don't seem to fund polls anymore and I also expect the papers will quietly figure out not to do more than one per publication day to avoid wasting costs.

    edit: Paddy Power have done a few polls but way less than before; RTE done none except exit polls on PE18 and LE/EE19.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election


  • #14
    aw
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭aw


    I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

    His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

    FF to break 60 seats
    FG to struggle to get to 40
    Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

    Green Party to go to 8
    SF to fall to 17
    Labour down 1 to 6

    13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
    19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes


  • #15
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,290 ✭✭✭liamtech


    apologies for repost - wrong thread
    liamtech wrote: »
    Apologies if this has already been asked - im playing catch up i only just found out there is an election

    So if the election is Saturday the 8th February 2020 - does that mean the count will take place on Sunday 9th? Or will it be monday?

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • #16
    ddarcy
    Registered Users Posts: 580 ✭✭✭ddarcy


    L1011 wrote: »
    For nearly all circumstances, no.

    You need to be away on state business more or less.

    I held off booking tickets/flights to a gig to see what date got announced and I'm still dithering about whether I'll get back in time on the 8th



    I'm expecting one Saturday and one Sunday probably. One of Irish Times / Saturday Indo for Saturday; then on Sunday Times / Mail on Sunday / SBP / Sunday Indo

    RTE and Paddy Power don't seem to fund polls anymore and I also expect the papers will quietly figure out not to do more than one per publication day to avoid wasting costs.

    edit: Paddy Power have done a few polls but way less than before; RTE done none except exit polls on PE18 and LE/EE19.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election

    I think a few have been in the process pre-election call. So we may need to wait until next week to be given a better representation of what’s going on. If I’m any party I’m not going to be celebrating per se with the first bunch of polls just yet.


  • #17
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    A couple more links:

    Ispos MRBI site:

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-ie/news-and-polls/overview

    Doesn't seem to have much about their political polls, but if interested in radio listening data....

    RedC website:

    https://www.redcresearch.ie/

    Some analysis of their own polls.

    "In summary, the political landscape remains remarkably similar to that seen in 2016. Some small movements are seen with gains for Fianna fail and the Greens, and a decline for Sin Fein and Solidarity PBP. But the reality is, that we are currently looking at an election that could well end up with exactly the same general picture as was seen in 2016. Confidence and Supply anyone?"

    Behaviour and Attitudes:

    https://banda.ie/

    I don't rate these as much as the others, but they do comprehensive analysis such as in this article, 72 pages do tell you a lot:

    https://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.1508-Sunday-Times-Dec-2019-Report-V2.pdf

    Millward Brown:

    http://www.millwardbrown.com/subsites/ireland/insights

    Wide-ranging polls available.


    Ireland Thinks:

    https://www.irelandthinks.ie/blog

    They do the polling for the Daily Mail but nothing on their website on political polls since January 2018.


  • #18
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Red C tend to be my, go to, poller. Wouldn't disagree with their assessment.


  • #19
    AMKC
    Registered Users Posts: 15,555 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    So we will be going back to vote on the 8th of February.

    Is it a good time to have a election?

    Leo Varadkar seems to think it is.

    Who will win?

    Will it be Fine Gael, Fine Fail or someone else?

    I think it more than likely will be one of them with some smaller partys.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • #20
    Moes Tavern
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7 ✭Moes Tavern


    Sunday Times polls are a nonsense. Sinn Fein hitting 20% or even more regularly.

    Irish Times and SBP polls are better and more accurate. Any sample under 1000 isn't worth a piss.


  • #21
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Is there any analysis/speculation of why Leo picked a Saturday out yet? The first Saturday election for 102 years is fairly noteworthy.

    Does he think it'll mean less young people voting? Or more? Less working class people, or more?

    I doubt he picked it instead of a weekday unless he thought it would confer FG some advantage.


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  • #22
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Yates prediction for this election was mentioned at some point. Here he was in 2016, not exactly calling it right!
    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/ivan-yates-predictions-who-will-make-it-to-the-dail-and-whose-heads-will-roll-34484333.html


  • #23
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Is there any analysis/speculation of why Leo picked a Saturday out yet? The first Saturday election for 102 years is fairly noteworthy.

    Does he think it'll mean less young people voting? Or more? Less working class people, or more?

    I doubt he picked it instead of a weekday unless he thought it would confer FG some advantage.


    Here is his statement from the RTE website.

    https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/01/statement-by-leo-varadkar-14-january.pdf

    "The election will be held on Saturday, February 8th. In holding the
    General Election on a Saturday for the first time, I do so knowing
    the inconvenience to families of a polling day on a weekday
    during school term - time off work, lost income, increased
    childcare costs. I also want to make it easier for students and
    those working away from home to cast their votes."


  • #24
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0114/1107344-election-poll-of-polls/

    An excellent article by Michael Marsh on the polls.

    "Meanwhile, taking the latest points on each green line to denote where parties are now gives us the following percentages, along with a best guess, based on the record since the 1970s, of the seats that might be won with that level of support.

    This is pretty much as we were, apart from a more significant Green Party representation."


  • #25
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    A good point made by Gary Murphy RTE 1 News, about 10 FG TDs are retiring and name recognition is important in Irish elections. This may have an effect that polls will not pick up.


  • #26
    toleratethis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 147 ✭✭toleratethis


    aw wrote: »
    I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

    His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

    FF to break 60 seats
    FG to struggle to get to 40
    Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

    Green Party to go to 8
    SF to fall to 17
    Labour down 1 to 6

    13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
    19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

    I'd wonder if this isn't Yates doing a reverse "Sure your seat is safe" type prediction, scaring fg'ers into getting out.


  • #27
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,169 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Water John wrote: »
    A good point made by Gary Murphy RTE 1 News, about 10 FG TDs are retiring and name recognition is important in Irish elections. This may have an effect that polls will not pick up.

    Yes, as the campaign gets going, we may want to look at what’s happening at local level with candidates to get an idea of where things are going.


  • #28
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    That occurred to me as well about Yates. He is FG through and through.


  • #29
    Lass1992
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭Lass1992


    What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?


  • #30
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users Posts: 12,995 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Lass1992 wrote: »
    What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

    What about them! They don't figure at all.


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  • #31
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users Posts: 11,255 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Lass1992 wrote: »
    What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

    Hopefully this election will rid Ireland of these donkeys once and for all.


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