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Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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    #62
    Cantona's Collars
    Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    BBC forecast just been on,giving a pretty severe storm with the centre of the low over the North West of Ireland & moving North East.

    Jet stream is to push South by the weekend leading to calmer but very cold weather.


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    #63
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,817 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nothing is certain but this looks quite a major wind event. Been going through the charts and what strikes me is how slow moving this storm is compared with the big one last Feb which peaked and did all the damage within a couple of hours here in Kerry. To my amateur eye this looks like blowing a stink for anything up to 12 hrs here on the Kerry coast, hard to know how long it will peak for and what kind of wind speeds but most likely has the potential to be damaging going by the present set up. High Tide here is set for about 23.30 which will probably coincide with the brunt of the storm Weds night although it will be a neap tide.Rivers are quite full atm although a good dry day here today so far.

    Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

    Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.


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    #64
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    52b87f1419a3cb5a7cdae78647d9ec4f.giffunny gifs

    Here's the high res GFS P and It just might not be too far off this track and intensity. Certainly shows a fairly nasty situation. I know ECM is nearly always the form horse but let's look back at this and see how right or wrong it was <100 hrs,


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    #65
    red_bairn
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    Redsunset wrote:
    Here's the high res GFS P and It just might not be too far off this track and intensity. Certainly shows a fairly nasty situation. I know ECM is nearly always the form horse but let's look back at this and see how right or wrong it was


    Don't go by the form. Go by the colours of the riders. :D


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    #66
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Nothing is certain but this looks quite a major wind event. Been going through the charts and what strikes me is how slow moving this storm is compared with the big one last Feb which peaked and did all the damage within a couple of hours here in Kerry. To my amateur eye this looks like blowing a stink for anything up to 12 hrs here on the Kerry coast, hard to know how long it will peak for and what kind of wind speeds but most likely has the potential to be damaging going by the present set up. High Tide here is set for about 23.30 which will probably coincide with the brunt of the storm Weds night although it will be a neap tide.Rivers are quite full atm although a good dry day here today so far.

    Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

    Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

    And that's the key. Tis always better to prepare for possible severe events, even if things don't end up on the more serious side well at least you have more peace of mind. Instead of should I or shouldn't I do all of the above. :)


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    #67
    teddybones
    Registered Users Posts: 169 ✭✭teddybones


    Looks very severe for east coast which isn't really that well prepared for extremely high winds. My own house sits on a hill in Wicklow town with nowt between me and the sea. The gusts predicted if the worst model scenario comes off would be significant. Certainly seem worse than anything last year had to offer.


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    #68
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,873 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Looking at all the charts that have been posted I think it's time to upgrade the warnings, better to have a warning and it don't happen than have none and it's a disaster I don't think upgrading this storm is scaremongering it looks like it's going to happen. Opinions anyone


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    #69
    red_bairn
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    teddybones wrote:
    Looks very severe for east coast which isn't really that well prepared for extremely high winds. My own house sits on a hill in Wicklow town with nowt between me and the sea. The gusts predicted if the worst model scenario comes off would be significant. Certainly seem worse than anything last year had to offer.


    what is the direction of the winds if this comes off? I'm wondering will I be affected from getting to work by Dart if trees or anything falls on to the train line. I remember last year trains were delayed or cancelled when trees came down because it was a direction that was less common so the trees got weaker on particular sides.


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    #70
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Well I think It definitely deserves Be Aware status. Because something IS coming.


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    #71
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,444 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Well I think It definitely deserves Be Aware status. Because something IS coming.

    Now do the snow thread.:P


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    #72
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Rte forecast after the news certainly taking note of a possibility of a major storm on Wednesday night.


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    #73
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looks like the Met Office went with an unmodified 96 hour FAX rather than leaning towards the ECM.

    This would be around 945mb north of Ireland, I'm guessing.

    PPVM89.gif


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    #74
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS is 10mb weaker than the 12Z. Starting to come into line with the less dramatic ECM version.


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    #75
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    maquiladora wrote: »
    18Z GFS is 10mb weaker than the 12Z. Starting to come into line with the less dramatic ECM version.

    Hi Maq does that mean its weakening and will weaken further as the days go by or is it still to far away to tell for sure.


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    #76
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    GFSP desper than the old op one though?


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    #77
    AnotherYear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    GFS(P) 940 low off North Coast

    gfs-0-78.png?18

    Can't even see Ireland ha


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    #78
    Tactical
    Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Meteorite58 wrote: »

    Spent a few hours making the place secure today: took off wooden gates, tied down fences, weighed down anything that can move, have camping gas,lamps, candles etc on standby. Have a feeling we are going to be without electricity for a time.:(

    Not being an alarmist but this may be one to be prepared for.

    This is being sensible and is something I never tire of saying.


    Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.


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    #79
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Rock Lesnar wrote: »
    Hi Maq does that mean its weakening and will weaken further as the days go by or is it still to far away to tell for sure.

    Too soon to say. I don't think it will downgrade hugely, I just think the GFS will drift more towards what the ECM is showing. That's what usually happens.


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    #80
    AnotherYear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    Violent gusts in the NW

    post-9615-0-71786400-1421013951_thumb.png


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    #81
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Finally, something worth following.


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    #82
    Gavster1982
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭Gavster1982


    you c any reason to be wary up north? east tyrone or belfast?


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    #83
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    What strength of winds could be expected on the south coast?


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    #84
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    goat2 wrote: »
    looks like scary stuff, had alot of damage done last year at my place, am dreading another blowdown, but at least i have the dangerous trees cut back

    Was out today and had a good look at the surrounding landscape from a nearby hill. It's quite amazing but all the mature trees over a specific height / age were completely removed from the landscape from miles around following the last big storm last year. Hate to think what this one could remove . Off to batten down the hatches again ...


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    #85
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It's interesting that night before Oiche na goaithe moire, there was a fall of snow.

    New Moon



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    #86
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    gozunda wrote: »
    Was out today and had a good look at the surrounding landscape from a nearby hill. It's quite amazing but all the mature trees over a specific height / age were completely removed from the landscape from miles around following the last big storm last year. Hate to think what this one could remove . Off to batten down the hatches again ...

    Isn't that a good thing though? The weaker trees were taken out last year so there should be less damage from fallen trees if this storm is around the same intensity. That would be my logic anyway.


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    #87
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    DMI 18z for Wens 06 hrs:

    84Wsvj.png

    Broadly speaking, seems to be placed slightly further east, and slightly further south, than on the 12z. Also seems quite messy.

    New Moon



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    #88
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    It's interesting that night before Oiche na goaithe moire, there was a fall of snow.

    The sequel? :P

    gens-15-1-84_jns7.png


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    #89
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The sequel? :P

    I wish! Clip from the TV program on Oíche na gaoithe móire the other night. I don't think we'll be seeing anything quite on this scale this time around.

    7HaSMR.png

    New Moon



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    #90
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Rougies wrote: »
    Isn't that a good thing though? The weaker trees were taken out last year so there should be less damage from fallen trees if this storm is around the same intensity. That would be my logic anyway.

    No - the trees taken down by the violent gusts weren't weak but were generally healthy and mature. The absolute force if the wind snapped many trees in two or simply uprooted them. That event has removed much of the most valuable trees from the landscape. Sad to see so few left now ...


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    #91
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I wish! Clip from the TV program on Oíche na gaoithe móire the other night. I don't think we'll be seeing anything quite on this scale this time around.

    7HaSMR.png

    Looks like a wizzard looking in the window


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