Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 16-04-2021 3:39pm

I don't think it is the lack of previous trade deal knowledge, although that is playing its part, I think it is that they incapable of seeing anything other than their own view of reality.

I read one quote that said (I'm paraphrasing) that the NIP issues would be resolved if the EU would simply agree to accept UK standards.

It relates to the notion that the UK should be the rule maker, that people should simply accept their word and that everyone else in the world are feckless and only the UK can be considered proper.

You see it in the response to issues with pensioners in Spain. 'Why don't they change the rules for us, sure we've been here for ages and they need us'. Or fishing 'there was no issue last year, why all of a sudden our the EU enforcing new rules on the UK?'.

CelticRambler · 16-04-2021 3:53pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

but it's more to do with the fact that the UK as an entity haven't negotiated a trade deal in almost 50 years and the last meaningful negotiation of any kind was the GFA.

Yeah ... but ... the British were there, in the EU, helping craft all those trade deals. I don't mean the Faragistes performing their "up yours" act in the European Parliament, but the diplomats and civil servants and miscellaneous others working quietly in the background.

Now I know a lot of those where purged once the Brexit train picked up steam, but there must still have been some talent left in Whitehall? Starting from the same point - the announcement of the referendum - the Dublin government was able to negotiate the NIP into existence, despite also being at arms length from the making of EU trade deals.

PeadarCo · 16-04-2021 4:59pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... but ... the British were there, in the EU, helping craft all those trade deals. I don't mean the Faragistes performing their "up yours" act in the European Parliament, but the diplomats and civil servants and miscellaneous others working quietly in the background.

Now I know a lot of those where purged once the Brexit train picked up steam, but there must still have been some talent left in Whitehall? Starting from the same point - the announcement of the referendum - the Dublin government was able to negotiate the NIP into existence, despite also being at arms length from the making of EU trade deals.

The issue is politically that means acknowledging the reality of the UKs current situation post Brexit and the compromises that it entail, mainly that the UK is now a rule taker. There is not a whole lot that any negotiater can do if the people in charge don't listen and have unrealistic expectations.

The situation with Dublin is that on a political level the Northern Ireland issue was identified very early and actions taken. Its very different to the UK approach which still is in denial of the issue.

Quin_Dub · 16-04-2021 5:23pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think it is the lack of previous trade deal knowledge, although that is playing its part, I think it is that they incapable of seeing anything other than their own view of reality.

I read one quote that said (I'm paraphrasing) that the NIP issues would be resolved if the EU would simply agree to accept UK standards.

It relates to the notion that the UK should be the rule maker, that people should simply accept their word and that everyone else in the world are feckless and only the UK can be considered proper.

You see it in the response to issues with pensioners in Spain. 'Why don't they change the rules for us, sure we've been here for ages and they need us'. Or fishing 'there was no issue last year, why all of a sudden our the EU enforcing new rules on the UK?'.

Agreed - It's a combination of both I think - When they get to areas lacking clarity or where they are unsure , they fall back on "Well - We are the UNITED KINGDOM and they will just have to take our word for it!!"

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... but ... the British were there, in the EU, helping craft all those trade deals. I don't mean the Faragistes performing their "up yours" act in the European Parliament, but the diplomats and civil servants and miscellaneous others working quietly in the background.

Now I know a lot of those where purged once the Brexit train picked up steam, but there must still have been some talent left in Whitehall? Starting from the same point - the announcement of the referendum - the Dublin government was able to negotiate the NIP into existence, despite also being at arms length from the making of EU trade deals.

Again - Irelands ability to see problems and negotiate, stems in no small part by the fact that we've been the small voice in the big room for a very long time so we've learnt the skill and value of back room diplomacy and of cultivating relationships & trusts etc.

We've never been able to "command the room" (or even to think that we could) as the UK might believe. We've always had to put in the legwork to get our position heard and/or accepted.

Seth Brundle · 16-04-2021 5:28pm

More revelations that Brexit isn't going according to plan (not that there was a plan!)...
City of London Brexit hit worse than expected, says study

Over 400 financial firms in Britain have shifted activities, staff and a combined trillion pounds ($1.4 trillion) in assets to hubs in the European Union due to Brexit, with more pain to come, a study from New Financial think tank said on Friday.

“We think it is an underestimate and we expect the numbers to increase over time: we are only at the end of the beginning of Brexit,” the study said.

Dublin has emerged as the biggest beneficiary with 135 relocations, followed by Paris with 102, Luxembourg 95, Frankfurt 63, and Amsterdam 48.

“This redistribution of activity across the EU has wound the clock back by about 20 years,” the study said.

Banks have moved or are moving over 900 billion pounds in assets from Britain to the EU, while insurers and asset managers have transferred over 100 billion pounds in assets and funds, reducing the UK tax base.

Igotadose · 16-04-2021 6:29pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

More revelations that Brexit isn't going according to plan (not that there was a plan!)...
City of London Brexit hit worse than expected, says study

Seems like we've heard these data in a story for awhile now.

It's not spurring HMG's on to do anything though. Just waffle waffle wave the flag over the "Oxford" vaccine, and egg on the headbangers in NI.

CelticRambler · 16-04-2021 7:22pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

More revelations that Brexit isn't going according to plan (not that there was a plan!)...
City of London Brexit hit worse than expected, says study

Surprisingly similar to the info (and links) I posted this morning!

Capt'n Midnight · 17-04-2021 3:28pm

Things have taken a tern for the worse for the Royal Pigeon Racing Association

New animal control regs introduced back in April 2016 when the UK was a lawmaker kicked in yesterday. This means that British racing pigeons will now need to be quarantined for three weeks before any cross channel races.

So of course people are looking for an exemption to the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Controls because they didn't realise that Brexit means Brexit.

Nody · 17-04-2021 3:48pm

And in other Brexit dividends...

European Commission says Britain should not be allowed to rejoin Lugano convention

Brussels has urged against Britain being allowed to rejoin an international legal co-operation agreement, in a move that has split the bloc’s national governments and dealt a blow to the UK legal sector.

The Financial Times reported earlier on Monday that the European Commission was set to give its blessing for Britain’s bid to join the Lugano convention, an accord that determines which countries’ courts have jurisdiction over cross-border civil and commercial disputes. But instead the commission opted to take the opposite course at a closed-door meeting with EU diplomats on Monday, saying it believed that the UK should be left outside on the grounds that post-Brexit Britain is neither a member of the European Economic Area nor the European Free Trade Association.

Some rumours about this being in relation to NI protocol related to put pressure on Boris but if it holds (France is against UK joining, Germany not decided) it would be a hammer blow for UK legal services as companies would move their adjudications to another country instead.

rogue-entity · 17-04-2021 4:25pm

redcup342 wrote: »

The 90 day thing isn't really enforced in Schengen or the EU as its fairly impossible to police since there are no border checks anyway.

It is enforced in the same way that entry to and exit from the USA or Australia is enforced and there are border checks at the points of entry and exit.

The curious thing about Schengen is that for a non-EU citizen it can be worthwhile choosing what country you enter through as the visa requirements can vary and if country A is particularly difficult you just go to country B and travel to country A that way - Russians know this very well.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-04-2021 4:30pm

UK negotiators may have some catching up to do. Especially since they'll they'll be looking for better than the EU got.

The EU and 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific states, mostly former colonies of EU nations, have a special relationship, have now concluded the negotiations for a new treaty that will replace the current legal framework known as the Cotonou agreement

https://www.dw.com/en/post-cotonou-eu-reaches-agreement-with-african-caribbean-and-pacific-states/a-57220259

"will strengthen our cooperation on the global stage" as the EU and the OACPS represent over 1.5 billion people and more than half of the seats at the United Nations.

...
Dussey said he was counting on the EU to help governments so that young people would remain on the African continent.

CelticRambler · 17-04-2021 9:06pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The EU and 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific states, mostly former colonies of EU nations, have a special relationship, have now concluded the negotiations for a new treaty that will replace the current legal framework known as the Cotonou agreement

It'll be interesting to see if this treaty is ratified before the TCA.

ArmaniJeanss · 18-04-2021 12:16pm

Remember the whole 'shellfish Class A/B waters' thing?

So now it seems the UK has just declared their waters to be Class A which would mean that they would no longer need purification before export.

This seems a bit 'too easy'?
Maybe its genuine and the Food Safety Agency is an independent and reliable body whose decision will be accepted by the EU.
Or possibly just a sly trick to get political capital in the fishing constituencies when the EU continue to regard these waters as Class B.

18-04-2021 12:22pm

If that is seen the EU as a way to simply get around regulations, I'd say the TCA is toast. It's one thing having to trust the UK to abide by certain standards, but them just changing labels is outrageous.

Somewhere in a room in London, someone said "We could just change the waters from B to A." on a whimsy and they went through with it.

reslfj · 18-04-2021 12:46pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Remember the whole 'shellfish Class A/B waters' thing?

So now it seems the UK has just declared their waters to be Class A which would mean that they would no longer need purification before export.

This seems a bit 'too easy'?
...

I would like to get this information from more reliable sources.

But if you follow the DM's text, it is a prime example on the absolute need for the ECJ as the one and only top court in the SM.

Lars

"Trust is good, control is better"

schmoo2k · 18-04-2021 2:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

If that is seen the EU as a way to simply get around regulations, I'd say the TCA is toast. It's one thing having to trust the UK to abide by certain standards, but them just changing labels is outrageous.

Somewhere in a room in London, someone said "We could just change the waters from B to A." on a whimsy and they went through with it.

I seem to remember that this was in the works prior to Jan 1 (but could be wrong).

Also the article seems a bit confused:

No 10 was left furious earlier this year when the EU suddenly announced a ban on the export of live mussels, oysters, clams and cockles in what was viewed as an act of revenge for Brexit.

It implies that the EU is preventing the UK from exporting shellfish? Which is a bit mean given the UK have left the EU and in theory have no control over the UK now?

PeadarCo · 18-04-2021 3:09pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

I seem to remember that this was in the works prior to Jan 1 (but could be wrong).

Also the article seems a bit confused:

It implies that the EU is preventing the UK from exporting shellfish? Which is a bit mean given the UK have left the EU and in theory have no control over the UK now?

What's interesting is the use of the word "revenge". It shows a massive disconnect about what's actually happened and what leaving the EU means. The UK is now a 3rd country trade wise. That unfortunately comes with certain downsides compared to being in the EU. It doesn't say a whole lot for the writer of the article that such an emotionally laden word was used. It still seems that people in the UK are still coming to terms with leaving the EU and its consequences.

Seth Brundle · 18-04-2021 3:56pm

PeadarCo wrote: »

What's interesting is the use of the word "revenge". It shows a massive disconnect about what's actually happened and what leaving the EU means. The UK is now a 3rd country trade wise. That unfortunately comes with certain downsides compared to being in the EU. It doesn't say a whole lot for the writer of the article that such an emotionally laden word was used. It still seems that people in the UK are still coming to terms with leaving the EU and its consequences.

If you think the DM article shows a disconnect then the Express article on it shows a seismic chasm between imagination and reality: (I won't bother linking to the article itself)
"Brussels surrenders! EU says it will accept British shellfish after ‘Brexit revenge’:

redcup342 · 18-04-2021 7:55pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Remember the whole 'shellfish Class A/B waters' thing?

So now it seems the UK has just declared their waters to be Class A which would mean that they would no longer need purification before export.

This seems a bit 'too easy'?
Maybe its genuine and the Food Safety Agency is an independent and reliable body whose decision will be accepted by the EU.
Or possibly just a sly trick to get political capital in the fishing constituencies when the EU continue to regard these waters as Class B.

They just follow the EU Rules now and do daily testing instead.

Was an idea from some fishermen in Cumbria.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cumbria-56255212

otnomart · 19-04-2021 9:20am

Was a bit puzzled by reading this article:
"Ireland aligned itself with the United Kingdom on most of the everyday issues that the European Union dealt with".
"An EU without the UK has become, at times, a more isolated place for Ireland."
https://www.politico.eu/article/leo-varadkar-ireland-brexit-europe-united-kingdom-ally/
Which Country(ies) do you think is Ireland's closest ally in the EU now ?

redcup342 · 19-04-2021 9:22am

otnomart wrote: »

Was a bit puzzled by reading this article:
"Ireland aligned itself with the United Kingdom on most of the everyday issues that the European Union dealt with".
"An EU without the UK has become, at times, a more isolated place for Ireland."
https://www.politico.eu/article/leo-varadkar-ireland-brexit-europe-united-kingdom-ally/
Which Country(ies) do you think is Ireland's closest ally in the EU now ?

The Netherlands (for tax purposes) :pac:

Professor Moriarty · 19-04-2021 9:28am

otnomart wrote: »

Was a bit puzzled by reading this article:
"Ireland aligned itself with the United Kingdom on most of the everyday issues that the European Union dealt with".
"An EU without the UK has become, at times, a more isolated place for Ireland."
https://www.politico.eu/article/leo-varadkar-ireland-brexit-europe-united-kingdom-ally/
Which Country(ies) do you think is Ireland's closest ally in the EU now ?

The article makes a fair point. Surprised at the final quote from Leo suggesting that the EU needs to be more realistic and generous towards the UK. He's usually a lot more circumspect than that.

Sam Russell · 19-04-2021 9:41am

otnomart wrote: »

Was a bit puzzled by reading this article:
"Ireland aligned itself with the United Kingdom on most of the everyday issues that the European Union dealt with".
"An EU without the UK has become, at times, a more isolated place for Ireland."
https://www.politico.eu/article/leo-varadkar-ireland-brexit-europe-united-kingdom-ally/
Which Country(ies) do you think is Ireland's closest ally in the EU now ?

That is historical.

Once Brexit started, we started to move and marshal our friends to protect the GF agreement. We had few friends following the demise of the Celtic Tiger, but we have got most back now on our side. The NI Protocol is evidence of that - but eternal vigilance is needed.

The tax issue is live with few friends and many against us. On agriculture we have France aligned with us. Merkel was a friend because our support for German re-unification. Hopefully, the new Chancellor will also be a friend.

The handling of the vaccines by the EU has been beneficial to us rather than a cat fight it would have been had each country gone solely for themselves. UvdL made a mess for us but that is over now.

I think the major EU issues are a case by case decision. At the moment, we are not making friends with the quarantine issue, but that will blow over.

We have a history in the EU of doing better than our size would suggest.

druss · 19-04-2021 12:20pm

otnomart wrote: »

Was a bit puzzled by reading this article:
"Ireland aligned itself with the United Kingdom on most of the everyday issues that the European Union dealt with".
"An EU without the UK has become, at times, a more isolated place for Ireland."
https://www.politico.eu/article/leo-varadkar-ireland-brexit-europe-united-kingdom-ally/
Which Country(ies) do you think is Ireland's closest ally in the EU now ?

I think allignment "on most of the everyday issues" with anyone is always a bit of stretch and isn't really the way negotiations work.

You could say that Baltic Member States or the central european member states form a more cohesive "everyday issues" block (a bit like Eurovision!), but even that isn't horizontal.

Ireland and UK have similar legal structures, so that was a start. When North is taken into account, there is overlap in terms of views on agriculture products, water networks, power, biodiversity etc. So similar views and cooperation was possible.

Equally, however, other issues in either country would see areas where cooperation was much less likely. UK makes cars. Ireland does not.

So which one is likely to argue for cars having higher manufacturing standards or believe they should be contributing more to emissions targets?

There are plenty of areas where a "best friend" changes from issue to issue. Sam Russell is right on France and agriculture.

Equally, the NI Protocol is big for us and other Member States respect that. Others will have a similar problem and if is "club" versus "non-club", generally Member States will be understanding. That makes it different to bailout issue, or even the vaccines scenarios.

rock22 · 19-04-2021 12:24pm

FF and FG economic policy is a rehash of Thatcherism and reaganomics so it is not surprising that we aligned with the UK.

Hopefully it will change

Professor Moriarty · 19-04-2021 12:47pm

rock22 wrote: »

FF and FG economic policy is a rehash of Thatcherism and reaganomics so it is not surprising that we aligned with the UK.

Hopefully it will change

If you think this Irish government's policies are Thatcherite, you don't understand Thatcherism. I look at the nasty pack of selfish and corrupt populists, led by Johnson, that have dragged the UK out of Europe and I thank my lucky stars that we have the politicians we have despite their flaws.

The Raging Bile Duct · 19-04-2021 12:54pm

rock22 wrote: »

FF and FG economic policy is a rehash of Thatcherism and reaganomics so it is not surprising that we aligned with the UK.

Hopefully it will change

I'm scratching my head here. Can you point me to what parts of the FF/FG economic policy are closely aligned to Thatcherism and Reaganomics.

Infini · 19-04-2021 1:06pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you think this Irish government's policies are Thatcherite, you don't understand Thatcherism. I look at the nasty pack of selfish and corrupt populists, led by Johnson, that have dragged the UK out of Europe and I thank my lucky stars that we have the politicians we have despite their flaws.

Yeah our politicians aren't the best for certain but for what its worth they've far more integrity than the likes of the Pseudo UKIPers calling themselves Tories who are running the UK today.

Sam Russell · 19-04-2021 2:43pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I'm scratching my head here. Can you point me to what parts of the FF/FG economic policy are closely aligned to Thatcherism and Reaganomics.

Housing.

We stopped building council houses not long after Thatcher sold them all off cheap and built no more. Our housing policy mirrors that.

Rising house prices is gift the keeps on giving to politicians. Those that have a house love it, those that hope to have a house look forward till they can get on 'the housing ladder' and 'benefit' from rising prices but wish the prices would not rise while they save for a deposit. Those that do not have a house and are not likely to have a house do not vote FF/FG.

There is also a love of low personal taxes, particularly for the higher earners.

FF/FG differ in the higher social welfare system and a few more issues.

druss · 19-04-2021 3:15pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Housing.

We stopped building council houses not long after Thatcher sold them all off cheap and built no more. Our housing policy mirrors that.

Rising house prices is gift the keeps on giving to politicians. Those that have a house love it, those that hope to have a house look forward till they can get on 'the housing ladder' and 'benefit' from rising prices but wish the prices would not rise while they save for a deposit. Those that do not have a house and are not likely to have a house do not vote FF/FG.

There is also a love of low personal taxes, particularly for the higher earners.

FF/FG differ in the higher social welfare system and a few more issues.

Not issues for EU cooperation though, it wouldn't qualify as areas where we would have relied on UK support in EU.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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