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Your interpretation of this graph

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

    I advise you to read the primary data here:

    https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults/

    You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

    No, it's not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Geuze wrote: »
    This is a graph of the growth rate of GDP.

    I advise you to read the primary data here:

    https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults/

    You ask is the spike in GDP in 2016/17 due to QE by the ECB?

    No, it's not.


    i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    euser1984 wrote: »
    i know what your saying but the gdp is based off money being injected into the economy

    Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

    National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

    One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

    By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

    For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭El Tarangu


    I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Geuze wrote: »
    Please note that GDP is a measure of national income, and the value of production.

    National income/production/GDP can change for various reasons.

    One of the many reasons is monetary stimulus.

    By monetary stimulus I mean expansionary monetary policy.

    For example, cuts to interest rates or QE.

    Is our gdp based on stimulus plans though? who really has any full confidence in the markets after 2008 to invest money

    what about luas investment for example?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    El Tarangu wrote: »
    I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

    I talked about it on the politics forum and nobody had a clue so hopefully i'll get help here


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Apple moving a large chunk of its IP to Ireland was a major part of the 2015 growth.

    and is that really growth?

    did it bring any money in?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    euser1984 wrote: »
    and is that really growth?

    Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Depends what you mean by growth. It meets the requirement to be counted in GDP.

    do you know what the spike in 2017 was?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    alright

    i've a few quotes from this article https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-gdp-growth-rate-3306016

    "The GDP growth rate measures how fast the economy is growing. It does this by comparing one quarter of the country's gross domestic product to the previous quarter. GDP measures the economic output of a nation."

    my opinion on the above quoted is that gdp is not a good insight to anything except ups and downs, based on the same things corporations use - quarterly profit reports


    "The GDP growth rate is driven by the four components of GDP. The main driver of GDP growth is personal consumption. This includes the critical sector of retail sales. The second component is business investment, including construction and inventory levels. Government spending is the third driver of growth. Its largest categories are Social Security benefits, defense spending and Medicare benefits. The government often increases spending to jump start the economy during a recession. Fourth is net trade."

    given that personal consumption and retail sales are the main drivers (assuming those people paid by stimulus projects) to gdp; it also means it's the first thing to go when things get sketchy. afaik most of the growth in the economy is based on retail sales atm
    so i guess if the government has to implement more stimulus plans (perhaps on a grander scale in the future, if a bailout is possible

    or given that the economy will dip again, is it a good idea that the people are giving all the money away to retailers (that may be offshore or use offshore services to hold the money); otherwise does it mean that every bodies euros become less valuable; while the government/ecb print to pay for services.

    or would the money become less valuable automatically on an eu scale as opposed to international trading in different currencies


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    El Tarangu wrote: »
    I am glad to see that your interest in stimulus money and inflation is as strong as ever, OP.

    this is where my interest on it has come from and i'm just trying to piece together the puzzle, but thinking out loud as much as everything else too

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THAaIZmxfNA


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    I wouldn't get too hung up on metrics such as growth and GDP, they're very poor metrics of measuring the well being of a society, interesting thread though


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    i still want to know what the spike was in 2017 though


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    euser1984 wrote: »
    i still want to know what the spike was in 2017 though


    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/

    Are you referring to the 7.6% growth rate as a spike?


    GDP is no longer a good indicator of the standard of living in Ireland as it is heavily influenced by MNC activities/globalisation/IP, etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    GDP = C + I + G + X - M

    You can see the growth rates of each type of spending here:

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/expenditure/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Geuze wrote: »
    GDP = C + I + G + X - M

    You can see the growth rates of each type of spending here:

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-nie/nie2017/expenditure/

    the bigger that blue rectangle then the worse the economy is it seems

    the retailers are quick to drop and close doors when a dip comes


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    and people living it large in the current "good times" like to roll out dosh for products they desire


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    euser1984 wrote: »
    and people living it large in the current "good times" like to roll out dosh for products they desire

    my favorite economic phrase of the week, 'we cant get enough of what we dont need'!:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    my favorite economic phrase of the week, 'we cant get enough of what we dont need'!:)

    true but it also runs the economy - at least "now" anyway!


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    euser1984 wrote: »
    true but it also runs the economy - at least "now" anyway!

    is it running it or ruining it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    is it running it or ruining it?

    part and parcel but the consumers are ruining it for themselves atm and nobody else


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    however, they are not the only ones responsible but it is human nature - in business and consumers because business men are consumers too


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    euser1984 wrote: »
    part and parcel but the consumers are ruining it for themselves atm and nobody else

    does it need to be part and parcel, our planet is screaming at us to stop what we re currently doing, we re seriously endangering the survivability of future generations by continuing our current economic approaches, and we re running out of time. this is a lot more complex than the faults of individuals such as ourselves, even though we all play a part in these failures


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    does it need to be part and parcel, our planet is screaming at us to stop what we re currently doing, we re seriously endangering the survivability of future generations by continuing our current economic approaches, and we re running out of time. this is a lot more complex than the faults of individuals such as ourselves, even though we all play a part in these failures

    it depends on how far away the problem is it seems

    global warming is beginning to be noticed in ireland and innovation has happened in the nuclear power industry - there are organisations in place to put pressure on governments

    the world health organisation are involved in this due to the effects global warming will have on populations

    when crises happen, change happens. however it also includes dangerous rebel anti-state movements, and exist in ireland already, but particularly in italy

    i can't say i know what the world will look like in 2030 but it will certainly be a lot different than it is now - whether better or worse, i don't know

    the human race is overdue to be wiped out anyway i believe and just like nature always fights back and goes in circles it could be something as simple as a superbug


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    euser1984 wrote: »
    it depends on how far away the problem is it seems

    global warming is beginning to be noticed in ireland and innovation has happened in the nuclear power industry - there are organisations in place to put pressure on governments

    the world health organisation are involved in this due to the effects global warming will have on populations

    when crises happen, change happens. however it also includes dangerous rebel anti-state movements

    i can't say i know what the world will look like in 2030 but it will certainly be a lot different than it is now - whether better or worse, i don't know

    the human race is overdue to be wiped out anyway i believe and just like nature always fights back and goes in circles it could be something as simple as a superbug

    all fair points, but its probably a good idea we try save ourselves and other species on this planet while we can, but the forces keeping the status quo are immense. i do think another couple of serious economic crashes might just focus our minds a little more, its also important to realise the failure of state bodies in dealing with such issues, our political institutions are complicit in these failings, and must be held accountable at all times


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    all fair points, but its probably a good idea we try save ourselves and other species on this planet while we can, but the forces keeping the status quo are immense. i do think another couple of serious economic crashes might just focus our minds a little more, its also important to realise the failure of state bodies in dealing with such issues, our political institutions are complicit in these failings, and must be held accountable at all times

    Transparency is the answer to a lot of those questions - that is on the way as we enter the new "blockchain" era. NHS did a successful trial recently, but IBM, Deloitte, SAP etc. are all involved.

    the issue is if you educated everyone on economics they would still behave like sheep


    efforts are being put into saving our species and other endangered species - some humans don't mine going out to shoot rare animals though


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,769 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    euser1984 wrote: »
    Transparency is the answer to a lot of those questions - that is on the way as we enter the new "blockchain" era. NHS did a successful trial recently, but IBM, Deloitte, SAP etc. are all involved.

    the issue is if you educated everyone on economics they would still behave like sheep


    efforts are being put into saving our species and other endangered species - some humans don't mine going out to shoot rare animals though

    transparency is nearly always a good thing, but those that dont benefit from that will always find ways to hide, and will help to create the systems that allow them to do so. even though the world of blockchain looks interesting, i wouldnt get overly excited about it, ive been to some talks with the blockchain lovers, some a little lost in their utopian dream.

    i will agree with some economic 'experts', theres actually no such thing as an economic expert, as its such a complex area, whereby even these experts will constantly bicker amongst themselves. you d be surprised at the amount of people that have become interested in the subject matter though since the crash, which is understandable, and great to see. herd mentality and group think is common amongst human populations, even individuals such as ourselves would experience these phenomenon on a regular basis, we are a complicated species, particularly in a behavioral sense


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭euser1984


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    transparency is nearly always a good thing, but those that dont benefit from that will always find ways to hide, and will help to create the systems that allow them to do so. even though the world of blockchain looks interesting, i wouldnt get overly excited about it, ive been to some talks with the blockchain lovers, some a little lost in their utopian dream.

    i've been involved in that stuff nearly since it came out and there is no way around not having a transparent view of the taxpayers money flow if it's demanded - and it's more powerful than the government just like the internet is.

    sounds like you met up with dreamers when you were up there
    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    i will agree with some economic 'experts', theres actually no such thing as an economic expert

    economic experts have a job for the same reason stockbrokers do - people cannot comprehend the whole story and need it broken down or at least know that someone out there can explain it if they need it - whether that person knows what he is talking about or not i'd say it's often the case that they don't know what the're talking about.

    there would be no such thing as stockbrokers if people were just taught the basics of sound investment


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