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Property Market 2019

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Comments

  • #1562
    padz
    Registered Users Posts: 499 ✭✭padz


    https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/san-francisco-median-house-price-falls-4-in-first-quarter-of-2019-200813

    Forgot to add this in earlier


  • #1563
    padz
    Registered Users Posts: 499 ✭✭padz


    snotboogie wrote: »
    Austin, Singapore (if you are a local) and Berlin are pretty affordable and stable given their economic power and all three are bigger tech hubs than Dublin.

    Cool well given the rental graph I posted earlier Germany would be a good move for someone renting in Dublin working in tech

    Here it is again... My point earlier about single renting professionals leaving


  • #1564
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    padz wrote: »
    Cool well given the rental graph I posted earlier Germany would be a good move for someone renting in Dublin working in tech

    Here it is again... My point earlier about single renting professionals leaving

    I know some rentals where i invest have increased 90 - 100pc since 2014 so 25/30pc actually seems low.


  • #1565
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Fol20 wrote: »
    I know some rentals where i invest have increased 90 - 100pc since 2014 so 25/30pc actually seems low.

    Its hard to tell re increase in rentals imo - some have no doubt increased >30%; some have increased <25% eg landlords caught in RPZ who did not increase rent prior to introduction of RPZ

    Think 30% average is probably fair enough


  • #1566
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    Anybody who might have been on the property boards for last number of years find any economists any good? I see Ronan Lyons popping up a lot of independent articles and wondering if anybody have those they think tend to be more clued in with the market.


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  • #1567
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Dolbhad wrote: »
    Anybody who might have been on the property boards for last number of years find any economists any good? I see Ronan Lyons popping up a lot of independent articles and wondering if anybody have those they think tend to be more clued in with the market.

    Economists are great at dissecting what has happened- but just like anyone else at trying to predict the future. Even the poster boys of the boom and bust- were predicting a bust for a decade before it actually happened. I do love to read a good description of what has happened- and Economists excel at this type of commentary- however, predictions- well, they may as well be staring into the same crystal ball as you or I.


  • #1568
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Dolbhad wrote: »
    Anybody who might have been on the property boards for last number of years find any economists any good? I see Ronan Lyons popping up a lot of independent articles and wondering if anybody have those they think tend to be more clued in with the market.

    The two names which has some credibility with me are David McWilliams and Ronan Lyons.

    Now it doesn’t mean they are always right, and they are no better than fortune tellers at predicting the unpredictable (I.e. they can call out potential risks and malfunctions with the current property market, but they can’t predict the evolution of all the external factors which have an influence on the market).


  • #1569
    klaaaz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭klaaaz


    Ronan Lyons(was(still produces reports) part of Daft) was disastrous at the last crash, we need a distinguishing figure like Morgan Kelly to tell it like it is without a vested interest/personal financial gain at heart.


  • #1570
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    klaaaz wrote: »
    Ronan Lyons(was(still produces reports) part of Daft) was disastrous at the last crash, we need a distinguishing figure like Morgan Kelly to tell it like it is without a vested interest/personal financial gain at heart.

    Did he make incorrect predictions then or support the idea that the only way was up? If yes I’d reconsider the way I look at him, but I think the Daft reports are just documenting a snapshot of the market for the previous few months?


  • #1571
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Its hard to tell re increase in rentals imo - some have no doubt increased >30%; some have increased <25% eg landlords caught in RPZ who did not increase rent prior to introduction of RPZ

    Think 30% average is probably fair enough

    Are you mad? Rents have increased 100% in Dublin


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  • #1572
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    San Francisco is an anomaly... It is super wealthy, has run out of space to house people, and is still drawing a huge amount of people. It's been growing since the 70s and showing no sign of stopping. The average homeless person there is probably earning in excess of 100k

    Cork and Dublin have tech bubbles, that have driven rents through the roof. These cities can’t take the numbers of foreign people coming to them for work.


  • #1573
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Are you mad? Rents have increased 100% in Dublin

    I would also mentioned that house prices have also increased circa 90-100pc so its all relative


  • #1574
    devlinio
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 172 ✭✭devlinio


    What would be the max you should pay for a 1 bedroom apartment in Dublin 13 near a Dart station. I know this isn't a lot of info to go off, I'm just interested in max prices people should pay for apartments.


  • #1575
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Fol20 wrote: »
    I would also mentioned that house prices have also increased circa 90-100pc so its all relative

    Yes but rents are heading for 50% above 2006 levels, house prices are still on average 20% below peak in Dublin, yields in 2006 were under 4% and under 3% in wealthy parts of Dublin, they are at least 6% in the capital right now

    Cities like Auckland (where wages are lower than Dublin) have much higher property prices, large cities have only seen house prices go one way since the turn of the century


  • #1576
    Marcus Rashford
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 144 ✭✭Marcus Rashford


    I’m not convinced that rents are up 100%. Much of the data is flawed, for example I had tenants who started paying €X and then any increases weren’t recorded with the PRTB. Then the tenant moves out and the new tenancy is registered at €Y. The PRTB does not have visibility on all of the data, so it’s a case of garbage in/garbage out. In terms of an actual example, I’ve one property that bottomed out at €1,100 and now earns €1,750 which is about the market rate. That’s a 59% increase and is about in line with what I’ve seen across the board.


  • #1577
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    Yes but rents are heading for 50% above 2006 levels, house prices are still on average 20% below peak in Dublin, yields in 2006 were under 4% and under 3% in wealthy parts of Dublin, they are at least 6% in the capital right now

    Cities like Auckland (where wages are lower than Dublin) have much higher property prices, large cities have only seen house prices go one way since the turn of the century


    From the areas i invest in, i would estimate the increase is closer to 30pc since 2006 but thats only my own local opinion and not based on a macro level observation.

    I see what you are saying however the environment has completely changed since then.
    - Houses prices were unsustainable then and was fueled by excess credit.
    - Yields of 3/4pc is no longer acceptable when better returns can be gained elsewhere.
    - Taxation and maintenance has increased substantially. I would estimate at least 10-20pc higher.
    - Risk has increased with more legislation, better tenant protections and compensation claims etc.
    - We have a large demographic of accidental ll that are only now starting to get out of the market.
    - You would think that if the rental industry was so lucrative, the market would increase however it is declining where very few new ll are getting into the market with the exception of REITs however they cannot take up all the slack an an entire industry that still has a majority of small time ll.
    - The housing market as a whole is in a completely different situation right now with now end of pain insight.


  • #1578
    Samuel T. Cogley
    Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    devlinio wrote: »
    What would be the max you should pay for a 1 bedroom apartment in Dublin 13 near a Dart station. I know this isn't a lot of info to go off, I'm just interested in max prices people should pay for apartments.

    Look at the daft report, it will tell you what the rent is for a given Dublin postcode, then add a bit for proximity to the Dart.


  • #1579
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Fol20 wrote: »
    ....
    - Houses prices were unsustainable then and was fueled by excess credit.
    - Yields of 3/4pc is no longer acceptable when better returns can be gained elsewhere....

    Any suggestions where better returns are likely?


  • #1580
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    Bob24 wrote: »
    The two names which has some credibility with me are David McWilliams and Ronan Lyons.

    Now it doesn’t mean they are always right, and they are no better than fortune tellers at predicting the unpredictable (I.e. they can call out potential risks and malfunctions with the current property market, but they can’t predict the evolution of all the external factors which have an influence on the market).

    McWilliams was hailed as the great predictor of the last bust. I was too out of the loop at the time, to pass comment on that period. I think he has all bases covered for either a crash or continuing boom, over the next few years. I find him to be a spoofer to be honest. He’s obviously well educated and well spoken. He’s posh and light years ahead of Eddie “buy gold” Hobbs. But ultimately I feel he is full of it.


  • #1581
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Marcus Rashford wrote: »
    I’m not convinced that rents are up 100%. Much of the data is flawed, for example I had tenants who started paying €X and then any increases weren’t recorded with the PRTB. Then the tenant moves out and the new tenancy is registered at €Y. The PRTB does not have visibility on all of the data, so it’s a case of garbage in/garbage out. In terms of an actual example, I’ve one property that bottomed out at €1,100 and now earns €1,750 which is about the market rate. That’s a 59% increase and is about in line with what I’ve seen across the board.

    Even if 100% is correct, you have to ask 100% from when.

    There were a few years where property could be purchased for a fraction of its build cost, likewise there were properties being rented at completely unsustainable rents.

    In short, benchmarking against rents in a global financial meltdown is a pretty meaningless exercise.


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  • #1582
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Saying that prices are unsustainable now they are climbing back to peak levels is wrong. We were in a global financial meltdown then but wages have now grown to make the prices affordable for the borrowers who are buying property.


  • #1583
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Saying that prices are unsustainable now they are climbing back to peak levels is wrong. We were in a global financial meltdown then but wages have now grown to make the prices affordable for the borrowers who are buying property.

    Plenty of people have not experienced wage growth- its been limited to a select few sectors- notably finance and IT. Its simply not the case that wage growth has occurred across the board- and its very short sighted to suggest that this is the case.


  • #1584
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Plenty of people have not experienced wage growth- its been limited to a select few sectors- notably finance and IT. Its simply not the case that wage growth has occurred across the board- and its very short sighted to suggest that this is the case.

    I think owls was pointing out that even though houses prices have increased. They are still sustainable as some people can still afford current prices. It was more of a broad comment towards people that are buying houses(IT and finance) rather than towards people that are not buying ( other sectors where growth isnt as significant)


  • #1585
    skippy123!
    Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭skippy123!


    I am living in Ireland for 5 years now (originally from Croatia). When I moved in rent was 1050. I pay now 1500. Rent has increased - that is for sure but I wouldn't say 100% (maybe only that sort of "special" landlords). I am just going to give a comparison on salary - average price of property in a city from Croatia.

    Average pay in Croatia is around 700 euro a month. Average price of a 2 bedroom apartment in Capital is 120 000 euro.
    Average pay in Ireland is around 2500 euro a month. Average price of a 2 bedroom apartment in Dublin is 250 000 euro.

    I think considering ranges between pay and price of average property is still pretty reasonable in Ireland comparison to some other country's.


  • #1586
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    skippy123! wrote: »
    I am living in Ireland for 5 years now (originally from Croatia). When I moved in rent was 1050. I pay now 1500. Rent has increased - that is for sure but I wouldn't say 100% (maybe only that sort of "special" landlords). I am just going to give a comparison on salary - average price of property in a city from Croatia.

    Average pay in Croatia is around 700 euro a month. Average price of a 2 bedroom apartment in Capital is 120 000 euro.
    Average pay in Ireland is around 2500 euro a month. Average price of a 2 bedroom apartment in Dublin is 250 000 euro.

    I think considering ranges between pay and price of average property is still pretty reasonable in Ireland comparison to some other country's.

    House prices in Dublin are not especially high for such a wealthy city, rents are very high however


  • #1587
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    I think the Cuckoo fund issue might be enough to see FG swap places with FF come next election. The idea that we had to bring them in to finance building apartments when the Government could have provided developers with the finance is daft beyond belief. I expect they will be forced to rollback on this stance eventually.


  • #1588
    myshirt
    Registered Users Posts: 5,245 ✭✭✭myshirt


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    The idea that we had to bring them in to finance building apartments when the Government could have provided developers with the finance is daft beyond belief. I expect they will be forced to rollback on this stance eventually.

    Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

    How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

    Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).


  • #1589
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    myshirt wrote: »
    Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

    How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

    Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).

    I agree with this. I think we are well poised in the event of a global recession as the institutionals invested in the property market are the ones which will feel it and they consist of foreign money. This presumably was the stance taken considering the devastation caused by the crash.


  • #1590
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    I agree with this. I think we are well poised in the event of a global recession as the institutionals invested in the property market are the ones which will feel it and they consist of foreign money. This presumably was the stance taken considering the devastation caused by the crash.

    If the money is being sought because a recession is inevitable then fine by me. Most on this thread believe there won't be a recession / repeat financial collapse. If there isn't they had better flip the tax laws so the state benefits or it forces them to sell. The idea of a generation of Irish paying rent though the nose to line the pockets of foreign pension funds gets my goat. The incumbent government has shown zero regard for the young employees in this country.


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  • #1591
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    If the money is being sought because a recession is inevitable then fine by me. Most on this thread believe there won't be a recession / repeat financial collapse. If there isn't they had better flip the tax laws so the state benefits or it forces them to sell. The idea of a generation of Irish paying rent though the nose to line the pockets of foreign pension funds gets my goat. The incumbent government has shown zero regard for the young employees in this country.

    You haven't read this thread then.

    You don't seem to have a coherent point here. Do you believe that taxpayers should be funding developers' speculative investments or not?


This discussion has been closed.
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