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Property Market 2019

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Comments

  • #362
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,610 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Man uses same username on two of the most popular websites in Ireland and it's stalking

    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    I would recommend that you read the Terms of Service, specifically the line specifying that you cannot

    "identify or speculate as to the identity of any anonymous or pseudonymous user"

    Before posting on this thread, or elsewhere, again.

    https://www.boards.ie/content/terms


  • #363
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Villa05 wrote: »
    You assume house price drops will be the same across all house types.

    Demographics would suggest that there would be considerably more demand for entry level homes such as starter homes and apartments. Consequently it would be safe to assume that larger homes would experience larger percentage price drops than entry level homes

    Could well be the case (although hard to be sure). But then it means it would be even better for someone who has an entry level one and wants to upgrade.


  • #364
    BBFAN
    Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭BBFAN


    People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

    And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.


  • #365
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,486 ✭✭✭Villa05


    BBFAN wrote:
    People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.


    Not waiting for a huge crash, but a country dependent on open economies should have policies that promote sustainable house price growth so that the effects of a crash are minimised.

    Ireland pursues polices that have the opposite effect and maximises the damage caused by a crash

    Credit has been kept in check by Europe however government policy has tried on numerous occasions to find ways around these controls

    Credit has been kept in check but house price have climbed unsustainbly due to supply being strangled

    Banks still have over 50k of mortgages in arrears, the vast majority are long term arrears.

    As I say I'm not waiting for a crash but I'm planning for one as we have not learned from the experience of the last one.
    We had a buffer to help cushion the last crash We have massive debt going into the next one. It's not going to be pretty


  • #366
    BBFAN
    Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭BBFAN


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Not waiting for a huge crash, but a country dependent on open economies should have policies that promote sustainable house price growth so that the effects of a crash are minimised.

    Ireland pursues polices that have the opposite effect and maximises the damage caused by a crash

    Credit has been kept in check by Europe however government policy has tried on numerous occasions to find ways around these controls

    Credit has been kept in check but house price have climbed unsustainbly due to supply being strangled

    Banks still have over 50k of mortgages in arrears, the vast majority are long term arrears.

    As I say I'm not waiting for a crash but I'm planning for one as we have not learned from the experience of the last one.
    We had a buffer to help cushion the last crash We have massive debt going into the next one. It's not going to be pretty

    I think you're wrong.


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  • #367
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    BBFAN wrote: »
    People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

    And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.

    Are people waiting for a huge crash? I think most have said they're waiting for a drop, that doesn't necessarily mean a crash as bad as the one we had between 2008 and 2012.

    Also, a 2 percentage point increase in unemployment is not insignificant. Apart from the direct effect to the unemployed it puts downward pressure on wages and increase job uncertainty for the employed. When that happens people could be less likely or unable to purchase. Brexit might not be a catastrophe to the Irish economy but it doesn't have to be to cause a drop in house prices.


  • #368
    rosmoke
    Registered Users Posts: 416 ✭✭rosmoke


    No drop, crash all the way. Too much debt accumulated in most economies. Roller Coaster economy.


  • #369
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    BBFAN wrote: »
    People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

    And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.

    This is music to my ears.

    The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

    If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.


  • #370
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    This is music to my ears.

    The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

    If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

    Yes because that's exactly how economies work. It's like some sort of reverse popularity contest. I understand there's a 1550 number and 5 digit SMS shortcode where you can register your preference for the next recession.

    :rolleyes:


  • #371
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,502 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I’ve seen the theory bandied about that builders/developers are on some kind of go-slow so as to artificially restrict the supply of houses and thereby maintain their high prices.

    Does this really stand up to scrutiny though? Yes, building is certainly throttled right now in comparison to boom-time Ireland and yes this benefits the construction industry but I think it may be a bit of a leap to say that this is some kind of conspiracy. Here are a few things to consider:
    • The construction industry was decimated more than any other during the recession. There was a mass emigration of a lot of skilled tradesman while at the same time apprenticeships completely dried up. Any tradesmen I know are in high demand right now and working flat out. There is a huge shortage of skilled workers in this area
    • Financing for developers disappeared. After the crash and the demise of Anglo it became extremely difficult to finance developments. This is still a massive issue
    • NIMBYism and An Taisce are responsible for obstructing and delaying a lot of developments with objections.
    • Any one developer/builder is going to act in their own best interests. They’re not going to limit their own profitability for the greater good of the industry. That is not how humans work – especially in business. They’re going to build as much as they can with the resources that they have.


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  • #372
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,980 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Makes no sense, the biggest financial gain with the least amount of risk is to build as quickly as possible. Having a large estate half build in the middle of a sharp decline in pricing is a huge loss for any developers.

    Land banking on the other hand would appear to be a good long term investment for people with money.


  • #373
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    This is music to my ears.

    The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

    If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

    It's actually the opposite. If people think a recession is going to happen, it can lead to them cutting costs and non essentially spending to help protect them from the recession. Same with companies. If they think a recession is coming, they might hold off on recruitment and investment. All this can actually lead to a real drop in economic activity based entirely on a fear of a recession.


  • #374
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    I’ve seen the theory bandied about that builders/developers are on some kind of go-slow so as to artificially restrict the supply of houses and thereby maintain their high prices.

    Does this really stand up to scrutiny though? Yes, building is certainly throttled right now in comparison to boom-time Ireland and yes this benefits the construction industry but I think it may be a bit of a leap to say that this is some kind of conspiracy. Here are a few things to consider:
    • The construction industry was decimated more than any other during the recession. There was a mass emigration of a lot of skilled tradesman while at the same time apprenticeships completely dried up. Any tradesmen I know are in high demand right now and working flat out. There is a huge shortage of skilled workers in this area
    • Financing for developers disappeared. After the crash and the demise of Anglo it became extremely difficult to finance developments. This is still a massive issue
    • NIMBYism and An Taisce are responsible for obstructing and delaying a lot of developments with objections.
    • Any one developer/builder is going to act in their own best interests. They’re not going to limit their own profitability for the greater good of the industry. That is not how humans work – especially in business. They’re going to build as much as they can with the resources that they have.

    If anyone is restricting supply it is banks and vulture funds especially .


  • #375
    reg114
    Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭reg114


    The market hates uncertainty. Brexit is creating huge uncertainty which is already feeding into a 16% drop in commercial van and car sales for January. Car sales much like house sales are a barometer of sentiment. I think people are grossly underestimating the implications of a no deal brexit. Potentially the economy could contract by 4 % this year alone, if that happens you'll see an exodus of foreign workers and resultant implications for the rental market in the form of an increase in supply due to vacated properties and a drop in rental prices. A no deal brexit will have massive implications for the residential housing market regardless of stricter lending regulations and access to finances. If the economy contracts you will absolutely see a drop in house prices. Irish economic output could potentially plummet, throw in an increase in inflation due to goods from the UK costing more and you have a perfect storm and recession looming. I have zero faith in the EU, UK or Ireland and their individual or collective abilities to resolve this shambles without some collateral damage. I think you'd be taking a massive risk if you think property prices are not vulnerable to collapse given one of the greatest threats to the irish economy in recent times.


  • #376
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,356 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    The notion that there will be any form of crash in the next 12-18 months is hogwash.
    The "new car" sales figures are down due to imports of 6-18 month old cars from the UK. Even on a no deal brexit there is no reason to suggest FDI in Ireland will contract. The rental market is going to get worse before it gets better, there simply are no properties to rent in Dublin at reasonable rates.


  • #377
    Kidkinobe
    Site Banned Posts: 160 ✭✭Kidkinobe


    ELM327 wrote: »
    The notion that there will be any form of crash in the next 12-18 months is hogwash.
    The "new car" sales figures are down due to imports of 6-18 month old cars from the UK. Even on a no deal brexit there is no reason to suggest FDI in Ireland will contract. The rental market is going to get worse before it gets better, there simply are no properties to rent in Dublin at reasonable rates.
    House prices will rise by 5/6 % over the next 12 months. People are getting caught up in the "IF" scenario "what IF Brexit etc" and ignoring what is actually supporting the housing market and what will continue to support it.


  • #378
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    Kidkinobe wrote: »
    House prices will rise by 5/6 % over the next 12 months. People are getting caught up in the "IF" scenario "what IF Brexit etc" and ignoring what is actually supporting the housing market and what will continue to support it.

    Across which segment of the market? House prices have already started to collapse in certain markets in Dublin, and with lending rules in place and wages yet to increase, there's no way the bottom of the market can go any higher in Dublin. The only place you're going to see house price increases like that are in the commuter belt and other cities across Ireland.

    Once it starts to go, it'll go quickly as people try and cash in and upgrade. That's the nature of a speculative market. Can't wait to pick up my first home in the firesale that ensues.


  • #379
    Bluefoam
    Registered Users Posts: 7,710 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Sheeps wrote: »
    House prices have already started to collapse in certain markets in Dublin
    That's a big statement, can you please point us to the statistics you are referencing... I'm aware that some asking prices have reduced, some sales have even gone for less than the vendor was hoping for... But collapse suggests a massive fall in property prices, not just a reduction. Heresay and personal opinion are great, but let's try to deal in facts or at least truth.


  • #380
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,931 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

    Jaysus..so many comments on a simple post..what i meant was dont have cash to buy..shows how much everyone is polarised for rise vs drops...


  • #381
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Graham wrote: »
    Yes because that's exactly how economies work. It's like some sort of reverse popularity contest. I understand there's a 1550 number and 5 digit SMS shortcode where you can register your preference for the next recession.

    :rolleyes:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH
    Citi CEO: Let’s Not Talk Ourselves into a Recession

    B-b-but I thought economies don't work like that :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


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  • #382
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    AlmightyCushion wrote: »
    It's actually the opposite. If people think a recession is going to happen, it can lead to them cutting costs and non essentially spending to help protect them from the recession. Same with companies. If they think a recession is coming, they might hold off on recruitment and investment. All this can actually lead to a real drop in economic activity based entirely on a fear of a recession.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH

    You're more of an expert than Citi CEO?


  • #383
    Bbborris
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭Bbborris


    I know it's a few days old, but I'm still trying to understand how this was the best quote they got for these apartments! 600k a piece, and the council owns the land they were to be built on?

    Can anyone enlighten me here?

    rte.ie/news/dublin/2019/0205/1027635-dublin-rapid-build/


  • #384
    Topgear on Dave
    Registered Users Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Bbborris wrote: »
    I know it's a few days old, but I'm still trying to understand how this was the best quote they got for these apartments! 600k a piece, and the council owns the land they were to be built on?

    Can anyone enlighten me here?

    rte.ie/news/dublin/2019/0205/1027635-dublin-rapid-build/

    I have no idea.

    "city centre location and restrictions of space added to the cost."

    This site is in Temple Bar.

    Why is it being used for social housing in the commercial heart of the city? I do not understand.


  • #385
    6ix
    Registered Users Posts: 764 ✭✭✭6ix


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH

    You're more of an expert than Citi CEO?

    Err... I'm not sure if you actually read that link but the Citigroup CEO is saying exactly what AlmightyCushion said - that widespread talk/fears about a recession can in itself cause a recession.

    It's the opposite of what you originally posted, which was:
    Pussyhands wrote:
    If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.


  • #386
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Sheeps wrote: »
    The only place you're going to see house price increases like that are in the commuter belt and other cities across Ireland.

    Commuter belt already falling- gently mind, nothing startling.
    Dublin South/West and North Kildare- esp. new developments- are all symptomatic, however, second hand prices showing similar trends.


  • #387
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    6ix wrote: »
    Err... I'm not sure if you actually read that link but the Citigroup CEO is saying exactly what AlmightyCushion said - that widespread talk/fears about a recession can in itself cause a recession.

    It's the opposite of what you originally posted, which was:

    Its pretty indefinable , but a tipping point does come when or most many people feel that their finances are becoming precarious and they cut back on spending with catastrophic results .


  • #388
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    Topgear on Dave wrote: »
    Why is it being used for social housing in the commercial heart of the city? I do not understand.

    Does Ireland have one of those portals to petition the government like the UK government do? That's an absolute disgrace. We should be moving social housing out of the city centre, not straight back into it.


  • #389
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,356 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Topgear on Dave wrote: »
    I have no idea.

    "city centre location and restrictions of space added to the cost."

    This site is in Temple Bar.

    Why is it being used for social housing in the commercial heart of the city? I do not understand.


    This is shocking.
    There should be no social housing within the North and South circular road boundary


  • #390
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Commuter belt already falling- gently mind, nothing startling.
    Dublin South/West and North Kildare- esp. new developments- are all symptomatic, however, second hand prices showing similar trends.

    Would you mind posting a link to those figures.


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  • #391
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,610 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    ELM327 wrote: »
    This is shocking.
    There should be no social housing within the North and South circular road boundary

    Why?


This discussion has been closed.
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