Property Market 2018

Wanderer78 · 20-01-2018 11:13am

The_Conductor wrote:

Like in the 'Murder by Death' lyrics- 'The beatings will continue, until moral improves'..............

I largely agree with what you're saying, it's been deeply disturbing to watch things unfold over the last few years, our housing situation being one of main issues. I was speaking to my doctor a couple of weeks ago regarding our health service, he now believes a 'marshall plan' is required to solve this issue, but also said, there's virtually no will to do this. We re in big trouble, and these issues have largely landed on the shoulders of our youngest generations. Our politicians and their advisers are lost, they are not listening to any sort of possible alternatives, trotting out the same ould stuff, this is becoming alarming. The only somewhat saving grace is, most other countries are having similar problems, i.e. I'm hoping we all come to our senses before anything major happens, I actually fear we re slowly heading back to a major economic crisis

Bob24 · 20-01-2018 11:16am

The_Conductor wrote: »

And the saddest thing of all- the electorate reward the same fools, time and time again. Hell, even FF have rehabilitated themselves- and are in the process of repackaging themselves as a liberal party to try and appeal to the 20-something urbanites.

Fully agree but I think the root cause has a lot to do with education and the media who don't offer enough in depth reflections and variety of opinions (entertainment and simplified information are easier for them).

Political parties are just following the flow of public opinion.

Wanderer78 · 20-01-2018 11:25am

Bob24 wrote:

Political parties are just following the flow of public opinion.

I agree and disagree with this statement, political parties are a complicated beast, decisions can be made from pure 'herd mentality', and then there's things such as 'plutocratic forces' etc, that can and do have an input into a parties direction.

Bob24 · 20-01-2018 11:36am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I agree and disagree with this statement, political parties are a complicated beast, decisions can be made from pure 'herd mentality', and then there's things such as 'plutocratic forces' etc, that can and do have an input into a parties direction.

I will also agree and disagree then :-)

These 'plutocratic forces' indeed exist and do have strong influence (to remain on-topic a bit, the property market is a perfect example of this). But at the end of the day we still have elections with each person having an equal vote. So if our education system and the media ecosystem allowed for proper debates on what the general interest of the nation is and the media were holding people in charge accountable for delivering on their promises, these lobbies you describe would have a much more limited impact as politicians would be much more pressured by voters to serve that national interest.

Villa05 · 20-01-2018 11:38am

Q&A wrote:

I won't get all the benefits/costs of decreases/increases in variable rates but I will get some of it. But given my view that we are at our close to the bottom of the interest rate cycle I think this approach will pay off over the life time of the mortgage.

I've heard stories at work that some banks are blocking customers from going on the fixed rate. This is from customers paying 4.5%. There saying the advertised fixed rates are for FTB's only.

Personally i would fix for the max period . If you leaving a portion variable to overpay, make sure that you are comfortable with that overpayment

Q&A · 20-01-2018 12:13pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Personally i would fix for the max period . If you leaving a portion variable to overpay, make sure that you are comfortable with that overpayment

That's the plan. This approach is not for everyone. If you can't overpay and are concerned about rates fixing more or all of your mortgage is the best option.

In reality I will be fixing almost 93% of my mortgage but in such a way as to suit my current repayment plan. But my point is that there is more than the black and white fixed Vs. Variable options out there.

keane2097 · 20-01-2018 12:36pm

I think it's worth pointing out that 2016 saw the worst ever polling result for the two major political parties in Ireland, continuing a trend that has been in evidence for decades at this stage. This is the case even in the absence of what many people would consider to be reasonable alternatives.

There is often a tendency towards self-flagellation by Irish people that Irish people always vote badly, but to my mind they are almost never given the opportunity to vote for anything good. The appetite for change is huge, as we see with referendums and the declining vote for the civil war parties the political system simply lags behind.

KellyXX · 22-01-2018 8:32am

CalRobert wrote: »

If you'd had a safe, separated cycle path that'd be 25 minutes, and nearly free. But cycle paths are apparently not something we do here.

I don't cycle for health reasons, so it's buses and taxis only for me I'm afraid. Would be good if there was a train though.

And even if I did, I doubt I'd be able to cycle 90km in an hour.

If you are expecting people to cycle to work, you are seriously limiting the commuting distance, thereforw limiting the commutable city limits.

Mickiemcfist · 22-01-2018 9:42am

keane2097 wrote: »

I think it's worth pointing out that 2016 saw the worst ever polling result for the two major political parties in Ireland, continuing a trend that has been in evidence for decades at this stage. This is the case even in the absence of what many people would consider to be reasonable alternatives.

There is often a tendency towards self-flagellation by Irish people that Irish people always vote badly, but to my mind they are almost never given the opportunity to vote for anything good. The appetite for change is huge, as we see with referendums and the declining vote for the civil war parties the political system simply lags behind.

Completely agree with this, FF & FG are practically the same thing (the only difference is which developer/businesspeople donate to which) , and god help us all if Sinn Fein or the united left alliance were to ever get into power. I'd certainly withdraw every penny I had & bury it in anticipation of a self made financial collapse & run on the banks.

Wanderer78 · 22-01-2018 9:51am

Mickiemcfist wrote:

Completely agree with this, FF & FG are practically the same thing (the only difference is which developer/businesspeople donate to which) , and god help us all if Sinn Fein or the united left alliance were to ever get into power. I'd certainly withdraw every penny I had & bury it in anticipation of a self made financial collapse & run on the banks.

I do feel we re quickly running out of viable options politically, but we re not alone, I suspect this is becoming common across the industrialised world. We better come up with solutions fast, or this could end badly, for us all. What happens if your accumulated wealth becomes worthless, burying it probably won't do much good?

Outkast_IRE · 22-01-2018 9:56am

I see the first time buyers loan scheme is getting revamped.

Sure some more Fuel on the Fire can only help things at this stage. The central bank werent playing ball with the government so the governemnt decided to circumvent the central bank rules altogether and offer interest rates massively lower than the private banks in the country ?

I would love a 2% interest rate, unfortunately my partner and i are silly enough to work for a living. Maybe one of us should just give up altogether.

https://www.rte.ie/news/enviroment/2018/0122/934974-murphy-housing-loan/

Mickiemcfist · 22-01-2018 10:04am

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

I see the first time buyers loan scheme is getting revamped.

Sure some more Fuel on the Fire can only help things at this stage. The central bank werent playing ball with the government so the governemnt decided to circumvent the central bank rules altogether and offer interest rates massively lower than the private banks in the country ?

I would love a 2% interest rate, unfortunately my partner and i are silly enough to work for a living. Maybe one of us should just give up altogether.

https://www.rte.ie/news/enviroment/2018/0122/934974-murphy-housing-loan/

I don't get it, they'll offer a 320k mortgage to people but at an income limit of 50k single or 75k couple...so a 4.3x income multiplier. FFS I'll have to ask for a paycut in work so I can get a better house.

seamus · 22-01-2018 10:15am

http://rebuildingirelandhomeloan.ie/

This is bad news for anyone looking to buy in Cork or Galway.

Or anyone in Dublin who thought they may be able to get something if they were willing to look a bit further out.

I like the idea of having a "lender of last resort" rather than just pumping money straight into builders' hands, but realistically all you're doing is putting more pressure on the market by giving more people the ability to buy.

Though I wonder what reaction this will get from the banks. The government is effectively undercutting them on the first-time buyer business; offering loans up to 5.5 times income at very low rates.

Will the banks revamp their offerings to hold onto more of it, or will they be happy to let the state handle the rocky FTB loans and the banks focus on the more valuable mover/switcher market?

Samuel T. Cogley · 22-01-2018 10:22am

25 year fixed at 2% bloody hell, where do I sign up :pac:

This is going to come back to bite us in the arse when interest rates go up.

Edit: 2 people on near minimum wage can borrow almost a quarter of a million. We're at it again we really are. This is going to feed into buying one bed apartments in Dublin and people being trapped in unsuitable accommodation. I'm all for it of course.

Shelga · 22-01-2018 10:25am

I earn just over the threshold as a single person for this new scheme. So I’ll be paying back an extra €39k over 30 years on a 3.2% interest rate rather than a ~2.1% rate. Thanks again for another scheme that’s useless to me, Irish government!

Outkast_IRE · 22-01-2018 10:26am

seamus wrote: »

http://rebuildingirelandhomeloan.ie/

This is bad news for anyone looking to buy in Cork or Galway.

Or anyone in Dublin who thought they may be able to get something if they were willing to look a bit further out.

I like the idea of having a "lender of last resort" rather than just pumping money straight into builders' hands, but realistically all you're doing is putting more pressure on the market by giving more people the ability to buy.

Though I wonder what reaction this will get from the banks. The government is effectively undercutting them on the first-time buyer business; offering loans up to 5.5 times income at very low rates.

Will the banks revamp their offerings to hold onto more of it, or will they be happy to let the state handle the rocky FTB loans and the banks focus on the more valuable mover/switcher market?

I have made the effort to write to my local TD this morning outlining my opposition to the scheme in its current form. I would ask anyone who feels likewise takes a few minutes to do similar.

I made the point that the government would serve this segment of the population much better by directly building, afforadable, sustainable social housing for them to rent as a first step on the ladder. I also indicated that they were going to allienate a large proportion of their voting base, by offering interest rates lower than the market to a select segement of the population and they were only going to increase pressure on the existing stock for sale. I also indicated i felt they should not purposely be circumventing the central bank lending rules, they are in place for a very good reason.

Outkast_IRE · 22-01-2018 10:29am

Shelga wrote: »

I earn just over the threshold as a single person for this new scheme. So I’ll be paying back an extra €39k over 30 years on a 3.2% interest rate rather than a ~2.1% rate. Thanks again for another scheme that’s useless to me, Irish government!

Take the time to write to your TD outlining your concerns. If enough people do it, it can only help, it certainly cant make it worse.

cruizer101 · 22-01-2018 10:31am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I don't get it, they'll offer a 320k mortgage to people but at an income limit of 50k single or 75k couple...so a 4.3x income multiplier. FFS I'll have to ask for a paycut in work so I can get a better house.

Its actually maximum house value of 320k and 90% mortgage according to http://rebuildingirelandhomeloan.ie/about/ . Thats still 288k which at 75k is 3.84 so still over, and I'm not sure are they potentially offering the same amount for people on less.

I potentially just miss out on it myself, but even if I was eligible I still think its a bad idea. Its not bleedin rocket science just build more f**king houses for gods sake.

Samuel T. Cogley · 22-01-2018 10:37am

Serious question: Is it profitable - as in viably profitable - to build in Dublin at the moment? Isn't that the argument builders are, of course, using?

Bargain_Hound · 22-01-2018 10:40am

What is the threshold difference between Joint (single income) and Joint (2 incomes) ? For example if I earn 55k and my partner isn't currently morking, can we apply using the Joint(Single income) option and fall under the 75k max?

This really does seem like adding fuel to the fire. Why are they fuelling the initiatives when there is still a lack of affordable supply? All I can see this doing is pushing up the prices of anything down the lower end of the market.

Mickiemcfist · 22-01-2018 10:47am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Serious question: Is it profitable - as in viably profitable - to build in Dublin at the moment? Isn't that the argument builders are, of course, using?

It's pretty much just hit the price point where houses are worth building, the major issue is planning delays & the cost of finance up to planning approval, that's where the risk lies & so the interest rates can be c. 25%. It's also the reason there's very little building going on in the nicer areas of Dublin, much more likelihood of planning delays due to objections etc.

WRT apartments, the dual aspect restrictions means you can't sell them cheap as they require more land per apartment. Among many other planning rules. The break even point of a standard 2 bed apartment is c. 320k depending on the area

scheister · 22-01-2018 10:50am

its an interesting idea from what i can see. Lender of last resort is always handy. To apply you need to have been turned down by 2 banks. Someone on 36k per year who is single with no other borrowings can get €185,724.18 or 5 times their income.

It is a good way to get on the ladder for someone people. but can discourage people in other places. What happens if in mid process someone gets a pay increase to go above the limit?

Will people be in a place where they will ask their job to delay increased till they get the keys to a house if near the limit?

Browney7 · 22-01-2018 10:57am

Thou shalt buy, thou shalt buy.

The housing market manipulation (upwards) continues. This stinks of an election after the eight amendment referendum.

Don't build anything for a few years -"sure there's no money lads" - and create a significant panic and shortage of supply. Pump up the prices - we're all rich again.

Now the price hikes might run out of steam and there's an election on the horizon - let's throw money at people and get them to buy whatever firetrap apartments that our developer mates can fire up on state land. Keep the recovery going lads!

22-01-2018 11:00am

Usually I'd be dead set against this but it looks like it could suit me nicely. :pac:

hots · 22-01-2018 11:21am

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

I see the first time buyers loan scheme is getting revamped.

Sure some more Fuel on the Fire can only help things at this stage. The central bank werent playing ball with the government so the governemnt decided to circumvent the central bank rules altogether and offer interest rates massively lower than the private banks in the country ?

I would love a 2% interest rate, unfortunately my partner and i are silly enough to work for a living. Maybe one of us should just give up altogether.

https://www.rte.ie/news/enviroment/2018/0122/934974-murphy-housing-loan/

Brilliant, rewarding people less likely to be able to make repayments with a super-rate. People just over the thresholds will get punished nicely by this, we're over the thresholds and looking to buy ~350K range, exactly where this scheme will hit. Fantastic.

Barlett · 22-01-2018 11:27am

Is it not really just a new version of this ?

http://www.homechoiceloan.ie/Who-can-apply-.aspx

LookingFor · 22-01-2018 11:32am

New or not, the details of that are stomach-turning. If you are on 50K you'll be able to borrow as if you were on 80K in the private market.

i.e. if you are 50-80K you are screwed over. Competing with people earning less than you who can pay MORE. Substantially more.

A person on 60K can max borrow 210K vs a person on 50K able to borrow 278K on this scheme.

edit - and yeah, for whatever it is worth, write to your TDs. Wrote to Varadkar this morning.

Cyrus · 22-01-2018 11:49am

its another subsidy for low income families paid for in the main by people who appear to earn a lot more but whose effective tax rate is nearly double

A couple on a joint income of less than 75k. Effective rate of tax on a couple earning 74k is 19% v 35% paid by a couple earning double that.

hmmm · 22-01-2018 11:52am

LookingFor wrote: »

New or not, the details of that are stomach-turning. If you are on 50K you'll be able to borrow as if you were on 80K in the private market.

The prudent borrower who gets a mortgage for a lower amount, will be competing against someone who gets declined and is handed a higher mortgage by the government, and will pay a higher interest rate for the privilege.

Stupid scheme, completely stupid. Hopefully the Central Bank might have something to say.

Mantis Toboggan · 22-01-2018 11:56am

Do you have to get declined from the banks to get that government scheme?

Property Market 2018

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