Football ranking table

Updated table following the final round of the league.

This week's changes were more influenced by losers rather than winners – Kerry's defeat at the hands of Cork saw them drop two places in the rankings, while Down's loss in Portlaoise also resulted in a two-place drop. Wicklow's win over Tipperary helped move them up one position in the rankings, with Tipperary dropping 2 places. Antrim fell two places after their defeat at home to Clare, while Leitrim advanced 2 positions following their win over London.



Position|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|106,35
2|-|Mayo|102,64
3|-|Cork|101,54
4|▲|Tyrone|98,11
5|▲|Donegal|97,70
6|▼▼|Kerry|97,66
7|-|Monaghan|92,82
8|-|Derry|90,56
9|-|Kildare|89,27
10|▲|Meath|88,21
11|▲|Cavan|87,69
12|▼▼|Down|87,40
13|-|Laois|84,33
14|-|Galway|82,77
15|-|Roscommon|82,07
16|-|Armagh|79,48
17|-|Louth|77,76
18|▲|Westmeath|76,67
19|▲|Wexford|76,33
20|▼▼|Tipperary|76,32
21|-|Fermanagh|75,01
22|-|Limerick|74,98
23|-|Clare|74,13
24|-|Sligo|71,79
25|▲|Wicklow|71,07
26|▼|Longford|70,92
27|▲▲|Leitrim|67,43
28|-|Offaly|67,31
29|▼▼|Antrim|66,34
30|-|Waterford|63,49
31|-|London|60,54
32|-|Carlow|59,77
33|-|New York|54,10

4 finals on this weekend, some changes in the rankings to be expected.

Dublin's position at no. 1 will not be altered no matter what the outcome of the Div 1 final, but even a draw for Derry will take them above Monaghan's current position in the table.

In Div 2, a Donegal win will propel them above Tyrone while Monaghan would drop below Derry's current position. If Donegal were to lose, they would fall below Kerry while Monaghan's position would remain unchanged (due to a large gap between them and the next higher ranked team, Kerry).

Cavan can leap-frog Meath should they win the Div 3 final, while a loss would see them drop below Down. Roscommon could overtake Galway with a win while a loss for Roscommon would not affect their placement.

Finally, in Division 4, a win for Tipp would see them jump 2 places to 18th without affecting Clare's overall ranking, while if Clare were to win, they would pass above Tipperary into 20th position.

There might be a delay in updating the tables after the matches this weekend; my hard-drive gave up the ghost yesterday, so a new laptop is on the way.....

As I mentioned before, I managed to find results dating back to May 1994. After adding these, there were some discrepancies starting to creep into the system and I've tried to address these.

I think it's fair to say that since 2009 or so, teams have been taking the league more seriously. Also the introduction of the back-door system in 2001 may have had an effect on the way teams viewed the championship. I've been playing around with the results of this for the last while trying to get a better correlation between expected and actual results but the variation is huge. In any case, I've changed the model so that pre-2008, championship wins are worth three times a win in the league while from 2008 on, the ratio is 2. I've also increased to 6 pts the score difference to determine a "good" win. This reduces the variation slightly, moreso for championship games, with 40% of the variance being explained by home advantage, winning margin and previous rating.

I've been doing a bit of background reading on it and the general consensus is that there are 2 types of rating systems - those that reflect a team's overall position relative to the teams around it or those that attempt to predict future results. It appears that the system I'm using (based on the IRB system) is much better for the former rather than the latter. I'll post later today with expected outcomes from this weekend's games.

Below is the updated table from which I will start the 2014 championship (the ratings difference between Mayo and NY meant that no points were exchanged following Mayo's expected win). There are some minor reorderings from the table above at the end of the league but these were mainly between teams who were rated very closely to each other.

I've also set up a wikipedia page which sums up everything so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaelic_football_rankings

#|Δ|Team|Ranking points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|97,52
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|-|Tyrone|95,40
5|-|Kerry|94,86
6|-|Monaghan|92,82
7|-|Donegal|92,00
8|-|Derry|91,30
9|-|Kildare|87,80
10|-|Down|86,20
11|-|Meath|86,73
12|-|Cavan|85,41
13|-|Roscommon|83,38
14|-|Laois|83,59
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|-|Armagh|80,00
17|-|Louth|78,48
18|-|Tipperary|78,19
19|-|Westmeath|77,47
20|-|Fermanagh|76,31
21|-|Wexford|76,27
22|-|Limerick|75,15
23|-|Clare|74,27
24|-|Sligo|73,05
25|-|Wicklow|72,67
26|-|Longford|72,14
27|-|Offaly|70,01
28|-|Leitrim|69,66
29|-|Antrim|68,66
30|-|Waterford|65,29
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

Down and Longford were the 2 big winners over the weekend, each moving up 2 places in the rankings, while Westmeath dropped 2 places. In terms of rating point changes, the Louth-Westmeath game resulted in the highest point exchange, 2.26 points.

(Roscommon and Laois were in the incorrect order in the table above.)

#|Δ|Team|Ranking points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|97,52
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|▲|Kerry|94,86
5|▼|Tyrone|93,78
6|-|Monaghan|92,82
7|-|Donegal|92,00
8|-|Derry|91,30
9|▲▲|Down|87,82
10|▼|Kildare|87,80
11|▼|Meath|86,73
12|-|Cavan|85,41
13|-|Laois|85,00
14|-|Roscommon|83,38
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|▲|Louth|80,74
17|▼|Armagh|80,00
18|-|Tipperary|78,19
19|▲|Fermanagh|76,31
20|▲|Wexford|76,27
21|▼▼|Westmeath|75,21
22|-|Limerick|75,15
23|-|Clare|74,27
24|▲▲|Longford|73,46
25|▼|Sligo|73,05
26|▼|Wicklow|71,26
28|▲|Leitrim|69,66
27|▼|Offaly|68,69
29|-|Antrim|68,66
30|-|Waterford|65,29
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

Tyrone and Donegal each moved up a place in the rankings after this weekend's games. Down and Derry were the 2 big losers in terms of rating points, with Down dropping 2 ranking places, but Derry's ranking placement was unaffected. Galway's win over London did not result in any point exchange as the rating point difference between the teams was too large (>15).

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|97,52
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|▲|Tyrone|96,18
5|▼|Kerry|94,86
6|▲|Donegal|94,30
7|▼|Monaghan|92,82
8|-|Derry|89,01
9|▲|Kildare|87,80
10|▲|Meath|86,73
11|▼▼|Down|85,42
12|-|Cavan|85,41
13|-|Laois|85,00
14|-|Roscommon|83,38
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|-|Louth|80,74
17|-|Armagh|80,00
18|-|Tipperary|78,19
19|-|Fermanagh|76,31
20|-|Wexford|76,27
21|-|Westmeath|75,21
22|-|Limerick|75,15
23|-|Clare|74,27
24|-|Longford|73,46
25|-|Sligo|73,05
26|-|Wicklow|71,26
28|-|Leitrim|69,66
27|-|Offaly|68,69
29|-|Antrim|68,66
30|-|Waterford|65,29
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

sting60 wrote: »

I assume you are basing everything on equations and the same principles apply in equal numbers to racing based on rational.My take would be as follows .Div1 in League 100pts per win and a valuation for points defeat and a deduction of value for wins as you go down the leagues.The final totals will really determine which teams are in with a serious shout of lifting Sam.Another serious factor that needs understanding are variables.Dublin play at home all the time,no traveling for Dublin players to training,all work/study in the county,no need to leave the country and very well financed.

Yep, all based on equations and all described here in more detail.

There are many different ways to do a ranking system but the IRB-based system appears to be one of the fairest that I have found. Ranking systems which are more focused on predicting results would take into account travelling times, recent big wins/losses etc, but that is not the aim of this particular ranking system.

Antrim's shock win in Brewster Park gained them 3,42 rating points and saw them move up 3 places in the rankings to 26th while Fermanagh dropped 5 places to 24th. Tipperary's win over Limerick away from home means that they move up 2 places to 16th with Limerick dropping three places to 25th.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|97,52
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|-|Tyrone|96,18
5|-|Kerry|94,86
6|-|Donegal|94,30
7|-|Monaghan|92,82
8|-|Derry|89,01
9|-|Kildare|87,80
10|-|Meath|86,73
11|-|Down|85,42
12|-|Cavan|85,41
13|-|Laois|85,00
14|-|Roscommon|83,38
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|▲▲|Tipperary|81,19
17|▼|Louth|80,74
18|▼|Armagh|80,00
19|▲|Wexford|76,27
20|▲|Westmeath|75,21
21|▲▲|Clare|74,27
22|▲▲|Longford|73,46
23|▲▲|Sligo|73,05
24|▼▼▼▼▼|Fermanagh|72,89
25|▼▼▼|Limerick|72,15
26|▲▲▲|Antrim|72,08
27|▼|Wicklow|71,26
28|▼|Leitrim|69,66
29|▼|Offaly|68,69
30|-|Waterford|65,29
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

Armagh were the major movers after this weekend's games gaining 3.48 rating points and moving up 5 places in the rankings. Cavan, meanwhile, drop 4 places. Although Wexford picked up 2.02 rating points, their ranking position remains unchanged, while Longford drop 4 places. Kildare's win over Louth sees the former move up one ranking place and the latter drop one ranking place. Mayo make a slight gain in rating points (0.52) with their win over Roscommon while no points were exchanged in the Dublin-Laois game. Clare drop 2 places following their draw with Waterford.

Finally, both Sligo and Fermanagh, despite not having played this weekend, jump up 2 places each due to the points dropped by the teams directly above them (Clare and Longford).

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|98,04
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|-|Tyrone|96,18
5|-|Kerry|94,86
6|-|Donegal|94,30
7|-|Monaghan|92,82
8|▲|Kildare|89,39
9|▼|Derry|89,01
10|-|Meath|86,73
11|-|Down|85,42
12|▲|Laois|85,00
13|▲▲▲▲▲|Armagh|83,48
14|-|Roscommon|82,86
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|▼▼▼▼|Cavan|81,93
17|▼|Tipperary|81,19
18|▼|Louth|79,15
19|-|Wexford|78,29
20|-|Westmeath|75,21
21|▲▲|Sligo|73,05
22|▲▲|Fermanagh|72,89
23|▼▼|Clare|72,67
24|▲|Limerick|72,15
25|▲|Antrim|72,08
26|▼▼▼▼|Longford|71,44
27|-|Wicklow|71,26
28|-|Leitrim|69,66
29|-|Offaly|68,69
30|-|Waterford|66,89
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

Three games up this weekend:

Monaghan (92,82) v Tyrone (96,18)

The last of the Ulster quarter-finals and the entry of the Ulster champions. Having home advantage almost gives Monaghan parity to Tyrone's rating points, indicating that there will be a large point exchange no matter what the result of the game. In general, a draw would be predicted, but a closer look at Monaghan's home form in the Championship shows that they do not perform particularly well when they are slight favourites. So Tyrone by 1.

Carlow (62,89) v Meath (86,73)

A rating gap of 20,84 separates these teams, which would normally point to an 8 point win for Meath. Nevertheless, Carlow manage to limit the extent of their losses at home to vastly superior opposition, and may do so again here. Meath by 5.

Waterford (66,89) v Clare (72,67)

Waterford having home advantage should bring them much closer to Clare, but will it be close enough? Did they miss the boat last weekend? Using the overall values for the Championship, a draw is predicted again, but looking deeper, Waterford's home advantage does not appear to be as strong as it is for other teams. A 3 point win for Clare.

Just to show how I arrive at the conclusions for home teams, I'll paste in below the graph of Waterford's home form. It is a neat example as their results are closely linked to rating point differences before a game. Using the the function of the line of best fit, I can then calculate an estimate of the future result.

Following their win over Tyrone, Monaghan gain 2.04 ranking points, move up 2 places in the rankings and now hold identical rating points to Kerry. Clare reverse their drop in the rankings to regain the position they held prior to drawing with Waterford. Waterford's ranking, meanwhile, remains unchanged. The Meath-Carlow game did not result in any rating points exchange as the gap between the teams is greater than the cut-off (15 rating points).

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|98,04
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|▲|Kerry|94,86
5|▲▲|Monaghan|94,86
6|-|Donegal|94,30
7|▼▼▼|Tyrone|94,14
8|-|Kildare|89,39
9|-|Derry|89,01
10|-|Meath|86,73
11|-|Down|85,42
12|-|Laois|85,00
13|-|Armagh|83,48
14|-|Roscommon|82,86
15|-|Galway|82,62
16|-|Cavan|81,93
17|-|Tipperary|81,19
18|-|Louth|79,15
19|-|Wexford|78,29
20|-|Westmeath|75,21
21|▲▲|Clare|75,10
22|▼|Sligo|73,05
23|▼|Fermanagh|72,89
24|-|Limerick|72,15
25|-|Antrim|72,08
26|-|Longford|71,44
27|-|Wicklow|71,26
28|-|Leitrim|69,66
29|-|Offaly|68,69
30|-|Waterford|64,46
31|-|London|64,21
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25

* Longford's shock win gains them 4 rating points and results in them moving up 6 places in the rankings, with Derry dropping 2 places.
* Both Galway and Wicklow move up 2 places following their wins over Sligo and Offaly, respectively.
* Sligo could feel hard done by, as their loss of 1.12 rating points, combined with the upwards movements of Wicklow and Longford, saw Sligo drop 5 places.
* No rating points were exchanged in the Clare-Kerry, Donegal-Antrim, Cork-Tipperary nor Laois-Fermanagh games.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|-|Dublin|102,23
2|-|Mayo|98,04
3|-|Cork|97,45
4|-|Kerry|94,86
5|-|Monaghan|94,86
6|-|Donegal|94,30
7|-|Tyrone|94,14
8|-|Kildare|89,39
9|▲|Meath|86,73
10|▲|Down|85,42
11|▼▼|Derry|85,01
12|-|Laois|85,00
13|▲▲|Galway|83,74
14|▼|Armagh|83,48
15|▼|Roscommon|82,86
16|-|Cavan|81,93
17|-|Tipperary|81,19
18|-|Louth|79,15
19|-|Wexford|78,29
20|▲▲▲▲▲▲|Longford|75,44
21|▼|Westmeath|75,21
22|▼|Clare|75,10
23|-|Fermanagh|72,89
24|-|Limerick|72,69
25|▲▲|Wicklow|72.52
26|▼|Antrim|72,08
27|▼▼▼▼▼|Sligo|71,93
28|-|Leitrim|69,66
29|-|Offaly|67,43
30|-|Waterford|64,46
31|-|London|63.67
32|-|Carlow|62,89
33|-|New York|58,25