[Funsterdelux]

Funsterdelux_____________5.0______12.5________-7.5______90 _____95__, 5cm, 15th

[sdanseo]

Better late than never!

sdanseo ____________ 4.1_____10.9____ -7.0______ 92______ 117____ 2cm 17th

[M.T. Cranium]

Table of forecasts for January 2021

Something new for these tables, the actual time of posting when later than 0300h 1st is shown, from that I can calculate your late penalty which will show up in this table later. Any further entries will be edited in ... the late comers so far are all on the first of January. As noted in the contest announcement post, late penalties will be somewhat more lenient than usual because of my rather late posting of the thread (although it doesn't seem to have had much of an effect). Welcome back to all, or welcome in for one or two new entrants.

Current late penalties (-2 to 1500h, -3 to 1900h, -4 to 2300h, now into -5 to 0300h, -6 to 0700h 2nd, -7 to 1100h 2nd, -8 to 1500h 2nd, adding 1 for each hour later than that).


FORECASTER _ pen, late ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max snow Casement, date


SleetAndSnow _______________5.4 _ 11.0 _ -4.2 _ 091 _ 085 _____ 3.0 cm __ 11th

200motels __________________5.3 _ 10.5 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 089 _____ 2.0 cm __ 10th

Mr Skinner__________________5.2 _ 13.3 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 111 _____ 5.0 cm __ 21st


_____ NormaL ______________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 1.0 cm __ (late)


Funsterdelux __ -3 _ 1818h ___ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 5.0 cm __ 15th

DOCARCH __________________4.9 _ 13.1 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 7.0 cm __ 13th

Tae laidir __________________ 4.6 _ 13.1 _ -6.2 _ 122 _ 100 _____ 5.0 cm ___ 9th

Dasa29 ____________________4.6 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 _____30.0 cm __ 24th

Appledrop __________________4.5 _ 12.9 _ -6.2 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 9th

pauldry ____________________4.5 _ 12.8 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 3.0 cm __ 10th

Kindred Spirit _______________4.5 _ 12.0 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 088 _____ 6.0 cm ___ 6th

WesternStorm ______________ 4.5 _ 10.5 _ -6.0 _ 086 _ 107 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Dacogawa _________________ 4.4 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 120 _ 096 _____12.0 cm __ 19th

Artane2002 ________________ 4.3 _ 13.6 _ -6.7 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 3.0 cm __ 22nd

Gonzo _____________________4.3 _ 13.3 _ -7.8 _ 088 _ 095 _____ 2.0 cm __ 11th

Mrstonewall ________________ 4.3 _ 12.8 _ -7.6 _ 077 _ 135 _____ 3.0 cm __ 19th


_____ Con Sensus ___________4.3 _ 12.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 5.0 cm __ 17th


john mac __________________ 4.3 _ 12.4 _ -5.1 _ 097 _ 105 _____ 0.0 cm __ (no significant snow)

Eon1208 ___________________4.3 _ 11.6 _ -6.6 _ 088 _ 107 _____ 4.0 cm __ 14th

sdanseo ____ -5 __ 0119h 2 __ 4.1 _ 10.9 _ -7.0 _ 092 _ 117 _____ 2.0 cm __ 17th

Adam240610_-7 __ 1041h 2 __ 4.0 _ 12.7 _ -7.7 _ 080 _ 125 _____15.2 cm __ 15th

sryanbruen _________________3.9 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 _____ 4.0 cm __ 21st

Jpmarn _____ -2 __ 1002h ____3.9 _ 12.1 _ -7.8 _ 070 _ 130 _____ 2.0 cm __ 20th

waterways ___-2 __ 0954h ___ 3.8 _ 11.3 _ -7.4 _ 075 _ 115 _____ 2.0 cm ___ 5th

Sunflower3 _________________3.5 _ 12.5 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 6.0 cm __ 28th

Bazlers ____________________3.3 __ 9.8 _-14.6_ 085 _ 105 _____ 37.0 cm __ 28th

Bsal ______________________ 3.2 _ 11.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 105 _____10.0 cm __ 22nd

CirrusBusiness ______________3.1 __ 9.9 _-11.2_ 120 _ 075 _____ 28.0 cm __ 24th

M.T. Cranium _______________2.9 _ 13.5 _-14.5_ 090 _ 120 _____ 20.5 cm __ 18th

Joe Public _____ -2 _ 0942 ____2.5 _ 11.9 _ -8.9 _ 088 _ 130 _____ 20.0 cm __ 13th

Danno ____________________ 2.7 _ 12.7 _-12.4_ 135 _ 065 _____ 20.0 cm __ 25th

BLIZZARD7 ______ __________1.1 _ 10.3 _-17.8_ 085 _ 135 _____ 40.0 cm __ 17th
__________________________________________


Have worked out Con Sensus, interesting this month that some of Con's picks are also "mode" picks meaning the most popular specific numbers, certainly PRC and SUN worked out that way, and IMT has a few straddling the median as well. The snowfall median is 5.0 cm but two have opted for no snow, the consensus date is the median of 28 forecasts and not surprisingly is beyond the range of the models (as of forecast time), indicating that many saw a potential for some snow early but thought it might improve later. Since the amount is a median amount, the skew means that the mean is a bit higher, it works out to 13 cm (closer to 12 if you count the two zero entries). The max snowfall date choices are as follows (asterisks mean additional picks):

5 6 9* 10* 11* 13* 14 15* 17* 18 19* 20 21* 22* 24* 25 28* (no*)

[John mac]

-4° overnight in Athenry and Gurteen

[adam240610]

Adam240610 4.0__12.7__-7.7__80__125__15.2cm__15th

Sorry for late entry completely forgot

[appledrop]

Looks like it got down to-5 this morning at Athenry and Mt Dillon.

[sryanbruen]

-5.9C at Mt Dillon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...753161730?s=20

[M.T. Cranium]

Have added Con Sensus to the table of forecasts as well as Adam240610, we have 30 forecasts, 28 calling for at least some measurable snow at Casement. The median forecast is 5.0 cm but the mean is closer to 13 cm due to several larger forecasts (skew distribution). Dates are scattered rather randomly through the month but the tendency is for the heavier forecasts to have the later dates (which makes sense given that the models were showing limited chances in the first ten days which conforms to those lower picks in the first third).

[appledrop]

Markree Castle recorded -6. 3 last night according to Met Eireann

I wonder if it will be even colder tonight?

Mullingar is already at -4 at 10pm.

[appledrop]

Official figure is -6.4 at Markree yesterday.

The snow has arrived here at Dublin airport. Hope it did aswell at Casement!

[M.T. Cranium]

I will have the usual first week report tomorrow, but the IMT to the 6th was only 1.2 C, and today is not going to move that much.

[M.T. Cranium]

After the first week ...

IMT 1.0, 4.3 below normal for the interval.

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -6.3

PRC 22% of normal.

SUN about 160% (Valentia missing from report today)

so far just traces of snow at Casement. 7th would be "max date" for most conspicuous trace, however, "no snow" will not lose points for trace amount dates, only if there was a measurable amount. (bonus will be scored 7/10 for amount and 3/10 for date, no snow = 10/10 if trace holds up).

[appledrop]

-8 at Casement & Mullingar at 8am. Wow.

It will be interesting to see official stats.

[DOCARCH]

Overnight low of -8.2c at Dunsany and Mullingar.

[M.T. Cranium]

Worth noting that the IMT sits at 0.6 C after nine days, and Casement is at 0.0.

It will obviously rise to some extent over the next week, possibly to around 2.5 or 3.0, but latest model runs suggest it may come back down again after that. So we can't be sure this is the low point for the month.