[nacho libre]

The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.

Or it could just be a delay and the cold comes in feb.
I think and this is probably hopecasting, that the models will show better charts the last week of Jan and the cold will strike first week of feb.

[pauldry]

Personally I dont think the models are able to get a handle on the coming weeks scenario at all as it is an all over the place scenario with lows and highs every which way. It will be interesting to see how the actual events pan out but certainly not looking as cold as it once was but neither as mild as some may think.

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by pauldry

Personally I dont think the models are able to get a handle on the coming weeks scenario at all as it is an all over the place scenario with lows and highs every which way. It will be interesting to see how the actual events pan out but certainly not looking as cold as it once was but neither as mild as some may think.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it snows in the next week. I have forecast snow in some of the sites for next Wednesday and Thursday.

I can’t imagine it’ll be all mild, as the cold has been quite close at times. Today it is only about 50 miles away.

[Gonzo]

not looking at models here either, no point. Still no real change from all the uncertainty and plenty of relatively mild runs in the mix.

[PokeHerKing]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

not looking at models here either, no point. Still no real change from all the uncertainty and plenty of relatively mild runs in the mix.

I don't think reverse psychology works on the models but I'm willing to try anything too

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.

was thinking the same, the warming happened almost 2 weeks ago and any strong signals of a proper cold spell are more or less gone. If this worked we should be well into the ramping phase by now or at least very strong signals for cold appearing in all the models. It does appear we get a brief cool spell but it is full of Atlantic modification. February could even bring back a strong Atlantic as the PV will regain most of the strength it lost over the past 6 weeks.

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

was thinking the same, the warming happened almost 2 weeks ago and any strong signals of a proper cold spell are more or less gone. If this worked we should be well into the ramping phase by now or at least very strong signals for cold appearing in all the models. It does appear we get a brief cool spell but it is full of Atlantic modification. February could even bring back a strong Atlantic as the PV will regain most of the strength it lost over the past 6 weeks.

But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.

Atm there is a minor warming taking place in the strat.
Still an evolving situation imo.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.

The response in 2018 was very quick from what I remember. We seemed to be doing alright this year in terms of the pattern right up to the when the SSW took place, you could say we didn't really need one this winter. We have had extreme unreliability in the models ever since and 'luck' seems to be turning against us if anything, it's possible that this SSW may be changing things not in our favour but we won't know for sure for several more weeks. We could easily end up with a 2012 situation where most of Europe and mainland UK is in the freezer regularly and a case of close but no cigar for Ireland.

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

The response in 2018 was very quick from what I remember. We seemed to be doing alright this year in terms of the pattern right up to the when the SSW took place, you could say we didn't really need one this winter. We have had extreme unreliability in the models ever since and 'luck' seems to be turning against us if anything, it's possible that this SSW may be changing things not in our favour but we won't know for sure for several more weeks. We could easily end up with a 2012 situation where most of Europe and mainland UK is in the freezer regularly and a case of close but no cigar for Ireland.

One thing I hope we dont end up with is another march 2013,that would be a real kick in the teeth.

[Kunta Kinte]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

One thing I hope we dont end up with is another march 2013,that would be a real kick in the teeth.

What happened then that was so bad?

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by Kunta Kinte

What happened then that was so bad?

Coldest march in 60 yrs . Plenty of northern blocking.
Parts of the north did well regards snow but it was really too late for most.
A number of times that month I had some snow in the ground during the morning, only to be vanished by lunchtime. Frustrating thinking of what could have been if it had been some weeks earlier.

[sicknotexi]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

Coldest march in 60 yrs . Plenty of northern blocking.
Parts of the north did well regards snow but it was really too late for most.
A number of times that month I had some snow in the ground during the morning, only to be vanished by lunchtime. Frustrating thinking of what could have been if it had been some weeks earlier.

Remember that, it was cold until early April but we saw no snow. The UK and parts of the North got buried iirc.

[bazlers]

Something tells me there will be alot more blocking over greenland in tonights runs. Hopfully its not too far West.

[nacho libre]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.

Atm there is a minor warming taking place in the strat.
Still an evolving situation imo.

The thing is if we look at the Northern Hemisphere profile its seem quite likely that the SSW has been factored into the output, otherwise we would not be seeing the vortex moved around the way it is ,and the ridging towards the north west. Unfortunately, It's just a timely reminder that you can have all the glorious background signals that suggest we should get cold, but it means diddly squat as to what weather we end up with. Just to be clear i am not saying we won't get snow at times, but the chances of a deep freeze look remote before late January, but then we have the problem of the strat revovering. There is a lag time between this and its effects on the troposphere, so maybe you are right, we could get lucky in early Februrary before any Atlantic take over.