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08-12-2020, 22:31   #31
pauldry
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Yes it's all very uncertain. There is no distinctive pattern emerging yet as with some other years. This is why I think it will be just a dry calm Christmas.

I remember a Christmas eve like the above chart almost identical and it brought icy rain and hail to Sligo and Castlebar and the paths were very slippy that morning going to mass.
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08-12-2020, 23:23   #32
Danno
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First Christmas Eve chart of 2020: Snow/sleet showers packing in behind a cold front with an occlusion over Ulster giving heavy snow well inland. Cold with evening temperatures ranging -1c to +3c (milder near coasts, especially W)
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09-12-2020, 08:20   #33
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The first Christmas Day chart is out: Nothing for snow-lovers in the first offering, a cool NW airstream driven by low pressure to our north. This chart is for midnight on Christmas Eve into the big day - cool and breezy with patchy frost in sheltered areas of the Southeast leading to a sunny Christmas day for most with isolated showers, perhaps some of these wintry over the high ground of the N.
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09-12-2020, 11:45   #34
pauldry
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Latest GFS run not a good one for snow. Atlantic very mobile in it. It just looks like a bog standard 7c Christmas Day on this run. Maybe snow in Scotland.

Hope next run pushes things South with calmer air over us.

Snowed last week when it was calm then at same temperature got windy and it all went to rain.
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09-12-2020, 13:10   #35
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the past two runs haven't been great, appears to be less in the way of freezer outliers again and a movement back more towards an Atlantic setup unfortunately. Still time for this to change to something more positive but I was kinda hoping to see more in the way of ensembles jumping onboard with the cold at this stage.
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09-12-2020, 13:26   #36
Slashermcguirk
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I think we will only really get a sense of what is shaping up for Christmas towards latter end of next week. I still think anything beyond 5 days to a week is just meaningless. Hopefully some cold will build over coming week. Continental Europe appears to be trending colder after a very mild run until end of November
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09-12-2020, 13:33   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slashermcguirk View Post
I think we will only really get a sense of what is shaping up for Christmas towards latter end of next week. I still think anything beyond 5 days to a week is just meaningless. Hopefully some cold will build over coming week. Continental Europe appears to be trending colder after a very mild run until end of November
Hopefully we will have a much better idea by the 20th of December, we should know by then what is coming our way for the Christmas period, hopefully we will arrive at a much colder solution over the next 12 days to give us something to look forward to. Last thing I want on Christmas Day is a day like today or another very mild 13C Christmas Day.
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09-12-2020, 13:49   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
Hopefully we will have a much better idea by the 20th of December, we should know by then what is coming our way for the Christmas period, hopefully we will arrive at a much colder solution over the next 12 days to give us something to look forward to. Last thing I want on Christmas Day is a day like today or another very mild 13C Christmas Day.
Oh the dreaded 13 degrees Anything below 6/7 degrees is acceptable for me at this stage! Something seasonal!
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09-12-2020, 14:45   #39
pauldry
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Yes our past few Christmasses have been fairly boring

Last year on Christmas morning it was -1c and frosty in Sligo though
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09-12-2020, 14:55   #40
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Lots of disagreement in FI on the different GFS runs. Some really tasty looking cold charts but also some very mild ones too.
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09-12-2020, 15:17   #41
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Every year this thread pulls at all our heartstrings I guess that's what make it so exciting when any snow does appear, like last week
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09-12-2020, 18:38   #42
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Just to add some fuel to the fire





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09-12-2020, 18:39   #43
pauldry
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Latest GFS back with a cold calm Christmas. A lot of rain between now and then. Some mixed with sleet so if its calm there might be a few snowflakes though all wet.

Temperatures never get to the dizzy heights of 13c in the latest GFS bar maybe this week. Temperatures of 5 to 8c seem the order of the day most days and 2 to 4c at night.

Next GFS pub run will likely go all out blizzard or 16c Xmas day.
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09-12-2020, 18:51   #44
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GFS looks reasonably mild and fairly wet up to about the 19th/20th of December so a fairly wet spell to come over the next 10 to 12 days. Christmas still looks up in the air with alot of runs from average to mild runs and a few genuine cold outliers, one of which is the GFS operational with a cold and dry Christmas. Still a long way to go with this one.
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09-12-2020, 20:30   #45
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Whats icon predicting? It used to be good at spotting trends before the other models, ECM better on the final details tho.
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