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07-12-2020, 11:34   #16
nacho libre
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So the GFS has come around to the CFS idea. Cue the GFs on its next run showing a milder solution and a meltdown ensuing over on Netweather.
I think we can be fairly certain the Atlantic is not going to send a conveyor belts of lows from east to west for this rest of month, but are we going to get lows stalling close to Ireland and filling eventually, or will the gates to the beast from the north east(possibly north) be flung open by the systems doing the honourable thing and facilitating heights building to the north east?
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07-12-2020, 12:02   #17
pauldry
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There is certainly a better chance than recent years and if mild weather does come there seems to be a bit of blocking going on so it will probably be short lived. If the current patterns persist the cold will only get colder. Might be an icy Christmas if not a snowy one.
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07-12-2020, 13:38   #18
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fingers crossed we get something much colder and with snow before December is over, would be great to see. The trend is for the Atlantic to be well and truly back for January and once that happens it could affect us for the rest of the winter, keeping everything crossed for the next few weeks. There is a slight possibility that the blocking could remain in place for January and if that happened we could be in for some very cold weather indeed but most likely the Atlantic will get it's way for the mid winter period.
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07-12-2020, 13:45   #19
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This mornings GFS ensembles are starting to show some very cold outliers towards the end of the run as we head into Christmas with 4 to 5 runs getting as slow as -6 to -10 uppers.



However there are also a lot of average to mild runs so we will need to see more of the runs fall into the freezer category over the next week to have faith in a proper cold spell around Christmas time, if it does happen it could be short lived but would be great to see.

edit: just for fun I also looked at the ensemble GFS extended that go to January 7th and some of those get as low as -12 to -14C, so it's encouraging to see that the models are still playing around with the idea of some very cold weather into the 1st week of January. Last winter there wasn't a whiff of cold in any of the models so this winter is certainly looking a bit more encouraging.

Last edited by Gonzo; 07-12-2020 at 13:50.
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07-12-2020, 15:14   #20
nacho libre
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fingers crossed we get something much colder and with snow before December is over, would be great to see. The trend is for the Atlantic to be well and truly back for January and once that happens it could affect us for the rest of the winter, keeping everything crossed for the next few weeks. There is a slight possibility that the blocking could remain in place for January and if that happened we could be in for some very cold weather indeed but most likely the Atlantic will get it's way for the mid winter period.
There are encouraging signs in the strat, so while the Atlantic might comes back, it might not run the show for the rest of the winter. This would reflect M.T. Cranium's thoughts for how the winter will go.
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07-12-2020, 15:38   #21
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That's as close as we'll get to a ramp from Gonzo!
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07-12-2020, 19:26   #22
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ECM out to +240 hrs showing us under the influence of Atlantic Lows, no great winds apart from a few windy spells but showing some very wet days especially towards the end of the run for later next week, bit far a way to know for certain but at the moment would look like heavy rain coming up from the SW on a few occasions with flooding potential on the 12Z charts. With the rain comes some milder weather at times, no deep cold showing up but will still be coolish some days. Will see if this trends over the next few runs.





Last edited by Meteorite58; 07-12-2020 at 19:34.
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08-12-2020, 09:16   #23
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Most models are still going for some sort of easterly or northerly in the days just before Christmas. Cold air never too far away.
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08-12-2020, 13:16   #24
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a few more outliers are going into freezer territory for the end of this mornings GFS run as we head into Christmas giving slightly more weight towards a trend towards something very cold for last week of December.



Most of the runs are still on the average to mild side but more and more are trending cooler with a a few genuinely Baltic runs getting close to -10C uppers. The extended GFS shows this potential cold spell starting around December 21st and lasting till about January 2nd.

We are along way out from reliable here, but hopefully we see continued cold trends over the next 10 days with more GFS runs and other models falling into line with something potentially very cold and hopefully snowy.

It would be truly fantastic to get a proper winter blast during Christmas week and into early January, would make such a change from waiting till March for the cold to arrive. Not looking for a 2010 or 2018 event but something decent like February 2009 would be very welcome and not too much to ask for.
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08-12-2020, 13:36   #25
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Certainly tending a bit colder. There have been a few milder runs though so its like 50/50 Id say. But this is 2020 so anything can happen. Also the conveyor belt of Southwesterlies is being met with more resolute blocking than last year and while some mild spells are likely in the short term they dont seem to be never ending as on most runs they are getting pushed South.

As always a lot can change and even if the next run is a milder one on the GFS we would need to see a few in a row to dash our hopes and so far there seems to be a cold run a milder run a cold run...so lets see what the next one brings...
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08-12-2020, 14:51   #26
Humberto Salazar
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I knows its the CFS but it now shows cold weather from 18 to 25 December, with steamers up to and including Christmas day, followed by a repeat of March 2018 from Stephen's day onwards! See for example:-



Just the usual boring -14 uppers down here.....
I really hate CFS. What purpose does it serve? Every run is different. You can't even spy a trend. CFS. Complete Faraway Sh1te.
That said, Ecm, who I respect much more, may be picking up that much colder potential from Christmas time, with East winds. Weak signals but still a possibility to be watched.
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08-12-2020, 17:42   #27
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looking fairly chilly Christmas Eve on the latest GFS run.



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08-12-2020, 18:06   #28
nacho libre
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I think it's safe to say we won't have Atlantic low pressure system barreling from west to east during Christmas week. The Russian high says no to that.
Hopefully the ECM shows something promising tonight.
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08-12-2020, 19:43   #29
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I think it's safe to say we won't have Atlantic low pressure system barreling from west to east during Christmas week. The Russian high says no to that.
Hopefully the ECM shows something promising tonight.
Nothing safe about predicting what weather we'll have in a fortnights time imo but I admire your optimisim!
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08-12-2020, 20:51   #30
nacho libre
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Nothing safe about predicting what weather we'll have in a fortnights time imo but I admire your optimisim!
There is no guarantee as you say, but looking at the northern hemisphere profile it looks unlikely that there will be a zonal onslaught in the next two weeks. We may get systems stalling close to or over us, but with the jetstream on holidays to the south we should not have a conveyor belt of low pressure coming our way

Cue the charts tomorrow showing the Russian High saying goodbye, and Atlantic systems lining up to cross over us!
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