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07-12-2020, 00:09   #46
appledrop
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A number of stations at -3 at 11pm. I'd say -4 could be possible as night goes on.
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07-12-2020, 01:51   #47
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-4.1 at Dublin airport on the 0100z
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07-12-2020, 07:03   #48
M.T. Cranium
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Too late to edit the table of forecasts but this line

for the snowfall question, 15 said no, 15 said yes (Knock 8, Casement 4, Ballyhaise 1);

should read

for the snowfall question, 15 said no, 15 said yes (Knock 9, Casement 4, Ballyhaise 2).

If a moderator can make that change then you could also delete this post. (it makes no difference to the contest scoring anyway).
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07-12-2020, 07:21   #49
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So new official min is -3.4 at Dublin airport on 6th.

However as Bsal noted DA reached -4 overnight + Dunsany is showing -5 at 5am.

So the 7th Dec data when complied with give us our new min.
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07-12-2020, 10:26   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by appledrop View Post
So new official min is -3.4 at Dublin airport on 6th.

However as Bsal noted DA reached -4 overnight + Dunsany is showing -5 at 5am.

So the 7th Dec data when complied with give us our new min.
-4.8C.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...328476673?s=20
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08-12-2020, 18:50   #51
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After first week ...

IMT 3.7 (2.4 below normal).

MAX 12.3, MIN -4.8

PRC 69% of normal

SUN 93% of normal (556/600).
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08-12-2020, 19:24   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
After first week ...

IMT 3.7 (2.4 below normal).

MAX 12.3, MIN -4.8

PRC 69% of normal

SUN 93% of normal (556/600).
I hope most of those stats change by the end of month or I will be scoring 0 this month!
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08-12-2020, 20:04   #53
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Had a look at the latest GFS 16-day run, would say if that verified, the IMT would recover a bit into the high 4's to near 5 but would be falling again just near the end of the run (24th), a MAX of 14 looks likely to me, nothing definitely lower than current MIN but potential for it building near the end (if there's a colder turn then), PRC would edge up to around 90% at times, probably won't exceed 100% at any point, and SUN under no particular pressure to go either way.

So your score could improve a bit at least. That MAX won't hold up too long if the Atlantic even half wakes up.
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14-12-2020, 07:22   #54
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New Max 13.0 degrees on 13th at Phoneix Park.
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15-12-2020, 18:33   #55
M.T. Cranium
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After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.0 with the second week average 6.3 (0.6 above normal).

MAX 13.0 and MIN -4.8

PRC now up to 113% with the second week at 156% of normal. The month reaches a guaranteed 100% of monthly normal if this week runs 230% of normal (and rest of month is dry) or if this week runs 150% and final ten days have half normal.

SUN now at 106.2% of normal with the second week relatively bright at 120% (720/600).

A reminder, the Christmas snow bonus includes the 24th which may help push it to yes rather than the usual no.

For the Christmas Dublin temps, current model output looks to be cool, early morning lows around -2 and late afternoon or evening highs around 8 from the current guidance (a weak warm sector arrives overnight then it turns colder briefly on 26th before more oscillations in a fast west-northwest flow, according to latest GFS guidance). The ECM looks similar, perhaps not quite to 8 C as the warm advection is weaker by late in the day. The GEM does not erode the ridge at all keeping that milder air out to sea past the end of the day, would go about -3 to 5 on its guidance. So a blend looks like -2 to 7 would verify. The 24th is a bit colder in the daytime than those numbers, mixed wintry showers look quite possible. Knock would be favoured over Casement but both have some chance of the white stuff.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 15-12-2020 at 19:03.
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15-12-2020, 19:18   #56
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What is the penalty for changing my Christmas forecast?
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16-12-2020, 08:15   #57
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I'm sure you're kidding but the technical answer is that any segment of a forecast can be changed with the late penalty applied, however all segments were worth zero upon changing after about six days so you would be sure to score zero no matter what you said now. Latest guidance even colder and more likely to snow in places.
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17-12-2020, 03:46   #58
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Quote:
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What is the penalty for changing my Christmas forecast?
Some of us hope and believe
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19-12-2020, 08:30   #59
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New max 14.2 on 18th at Dublin Airport.
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22-12-2020, 19:21   #60
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After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.7, the third week average was 7.1 which was 1.6 above normal. Some downward pressure on IMT the rest of the way, projected finish around 5.0.

MAX 14.2, MIN -4.8 -- MAX more likely than MIN to survive the coming roller coaster ride.

PRC now 124% of normal with the week at 146%. That's enough to guarantee an outcome of at least 82%, with half normal amounts from today to end of month the requirement to get to an outcome of 100%. That's about what is actually expected, perhaps a touch more to land near 103-105 per cent.

SUN has edged up again to 107.6% with this past week 109.7% (658/600). That may hold or slip back slightly, once again would say 103-105 looks good (hard to say how much sun might get through the maritime flow stratus layers in the colder spell, this could conceivably rise too).

The Dublin forecast is now looking like about max 7, min -2 might work, and there's some chance for the "yes" half of the field mainly with localized snow showers on the 24th qualifying. Will have to be at a weather station though, not a photo of a distant hilltop.

So how's all that looking for your scoring potential? I will check the forecasts and edit in where I see the highest scoring at this early juncture.

If there's no change to MAX and MIN, some high scores will fall into the bottom third of the table (where the colder IMT forecasts are located, as long as IMT and MIN aren't too extreme), also john mac a bit higher on IMT is looking good on most portions. Some (like myself) need a lower MIN to complete a good score. With the overall scoring quite a close contest, there may be a chaotic finish.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 22-12-2020 at 19:30.
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