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25-12-2020, 13:00   #61
Gonzo
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Hopefully if we do get a split, it would be similar to what took place 2018. As, if i'm not mistaken, the response in the troposphere was fairly quick to that.
The split seems to be gone for now, the GFS backtracked on a big split few days ago. It still looks a decent warming, a displacement and stretch rather than a split. Perhaps in January we will see further warming and perhaps a split.

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25-12-2020, 13:33   #62
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The split seems to be gone for now, the GFS backtracked on a big split few days ago. It still looks a decent warming, a displacement and stretch rather than a split. Perhaps in January we will see further warming and perhaps a split.

Yes the GFS seems to have backtracked, and the ECM has now taken up the mantle. Hopefully the GFS goes back to what it was showing previously, but considering it led the way, it could well be that it turns out to have things right. We really don't want to see a lobe of the Vortex ending up in the Atlantic.
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26-12-2020, 14:12   #63
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the most recent charts for the SSW does not produce a split, however as the PV shows signs of reorganizing itself by the 11th of January, we have another possibly significant warming developing, if this intensifies further into mid January we could end up with a split if all goes right.



It appears that the PV will be put under alot of pressure for possibly most of January.
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26-12-2020, 14:29   #64
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GFS operational has been confusing of late ever since the ECM started to show the major SSW event. The GFS parallel has been going completely the other way to that of the operational with quite vast differences as soon as t180 when it shows more impact from the secondary warming that develops in the North Atlantic. Have not looked at the parallel well enough to know how good its verification record is however but with similarities outlined below with the ECM, it's not entirely alone.

The ECM 12z yesterday (0z charts at University of Berlin have not appeared as of now) at t240 was similar to that of the GFS parallel at t180 with what looks to be a major wave-1 displacement and an attempt at splitting the vortex, there is a reversal. Wave-1 amplitude looks high and wave-2 continues to look modest in nature.

My thoughts remain the same as per Christmas Eve post. As for thinking of impacts for the surface and developing blocking, that's besides the point at the moment. All the eyes are on seeing this SSW develop and see how dynamical/spectacular it will be. It's like seeing when a cold spell is going to end before it has even started.
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26-12-2020, 19:09   #65
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Sryanbruen, great informative posts.
Hopefully an SSW will deliver Narnia.
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27-12-2020, 12:53   #66
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GFS operational has been confusing of late ever since the ECM started to show the major SSW event. The GFS parallel has been going completely the other way to that of the operational with quite vast differences as soon as t180 when it shows more impact from the secondary warming that develops in the North Atlantic. Have not looked at the parallel well enough to know how good its verification record is however but with similarities outlined below with the ECM, it's not entirely alone.

The ECM 12z yesterday (0z charts at University of Berlin have not appeared as of now) at t240 was similar to that of the GFS parallel at t180 with what looks to be a major wave-1 displacement and an attempt at splitting the vortex, there is a reversal. Wave-1 amplitude looks high and wave-2 continues to look modest in nature.

My thoughts remain the same as per Christmas Eve post. As for thinking of impacts for the surface and developing blocking, that's besides the point at the moment. All the eyes are on seeing this SSW develop and see how dynamical/spectacular it will be. It's like seeing when a cold spell is going to end before it has even started.
Too much time on netweather will do that! Some people are of the view a displacement could work in our favour. I would have thought a lobe of vortex in the Atlantic would be bad news.

It's interesting how the gfs is now consistent about a second warming that could split the Polar Vortex, if that does happen, i hope we won't start to hear that its too late in the year. With the profile of the northern hemisphere you'd like to think any down welling might have a more immediate impact this time, assuming we don't end up with something more zonal from the displacement. It's good you are not swayed away from your previous thoughts anyway.
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27-12-2020, 12:53   #67
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the GFS 6z is now finally showing a split but around January 10th/11th, later than the other models and also quite a big reversal. this is still deep FI, this SSW business is starting to give me a headache so hopefully everything is resolved soon!
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27-12-2020, 14:24   #68
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latest chart at the end of the GFS looks very good, the first SSW causes a displacement but just as the PV begins to start strengthening another fairly significant warming in the first week of January causes a split by the 11th/12th of January. Fingers crossed the split works out in our favour this time.

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28-12-2020, 15:29   #69
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I wouldn't worry about or get hung up on individual runs, the trend is what's important. Don't forget my headaches I mentioned from February 2018's major SSW event, that wasn't very smooth sailing either!

The stratospheric polar vortex will be in an absolute mess, split or not. The tropospheric polar vortex is not much better. Wave-1 wreaking havoc at the moment with record breaking amplitude. Won't take much from wave-2 to put the SPV in its grave..
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28-12-2020, 15:34   #70
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The stratospheric polar vortex will be in an absolute mess, split or not. The tropospheric polar vortex is not much better. Wave-1 wreaking havoc at the moment with record breaking amplitude. Won't take much from wave-2 to put the SPV in its grave..
Do you think given the state of the troposphere vortex already that the impacts of a SSW could be felt quicker in the Troposphere than they normally might be?
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28-12-2020, 20:26   #71
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Happy New Year from the stratosphere

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30-12-2020, 14:24   #72
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https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1...767706112?s=20
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30-12-2020, 15:31   #73
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If the GFS is correct, then any warm up will hopefully be temporary. It certainly look like a good split. It would be great if we could see if Glosea5 and the GFS are on the same page, or whether it agrees with the ECM
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30-12-2020, 16:33   #74
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If the GFS is correct, then any warm up will hopefully be temporary. It certainly look like a good split. It would be great if we could see if Glosea5 and the GFS are on the same page, or whether it agrees with the ECM
we really need this to fall correctly more so than usual, how ironic would it be if after all those years of waiting for a good trop-led pattern the SSW comes and ruins everything!
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30-12-2020, 17:10   #75
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Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
If the GFS is correct, then any warm up will hopefully be temporary. It certainly look like a good split. It would be great if we could see if Glosea5 and the GFS are on the same page, or whether it agrees with the ECM
the Glosea shows zonal winds (65N though not 60N) not really recovering for the rest of the month. you'd think we'd be incredibly unlucky to miss out on some decent cold/snow but that's our luck! I saw it on netweather but I wouldn't want to post it just in case the chart is supposed to be behind paywall or something.

Last edited by Artane2002; 30-12-2020 at 17:14. Reason: mistake
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