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12-01-2021, 07:28   #5881
M.T. Cranium
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Tuesday, 12 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, although dropping to colder levels at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 25% above normal in some parts of the northwest and central counties, to as much as 50% below normal near the south coast. Much of the heavier rainfall will occur tonight and Wednesday morning.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see a moderate to heavy rainfall zone setting up from north Connacht southeast into the midlands, and extending eventually into Leinster. East Ulster and north Leinster may remain largely dry although overcast, and the south coast will only see lighter rainfall in showers later in the day. It will be mild in most places, although rather cool in the northeast, at least until later in the afternoon, with highs near 7 C there, otherwise most places will probably reach 11 or 12 C. About 30-40 mm of rain will fall in the heavier rainfall zone by late tonight.

TONIGHT will see heavy rain continuing in the northwest and central counties for a time, with somewhat heavier rain (than earlier) breaking out also in other regions. Foggy and mild with lows generally 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite mild with the rain ending, then a gradual clearing trend will develop from the west, although it may not reach the east coast before afternoon. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C then falling slowly.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and considerably cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will have clear skies to start, with frosts likely, lows near -2 C. Then it will begin to warm up again, rather slowly, in a weak southerly flow, although more blustery near Atlantic coasts where rain is likely to spread in. Highs will range from 6 C east to 10 C west. The rain will continue overnight, becoming more showery by early Saturday.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, windy with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, possibly becoming wintry in some parts of the north, winds turning more northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is challenging (to the forecast models, each one comes up with a somewhat different solution) -- the general theme is cold to very cold, with a moderate to high risk of snow or sleet towards the end of the week. The cold may eventually become severe according to some guidance, but at this point, I'm only committing (in the forecast) to a moderate cooling trend with highs to drop to around 3-6 C and night frosts likely to return, with at least mixed wintry showers at times next week, and possibly a significant snowfall. Details on all this will no doubt come into better focus by about this coming weekend.

My local weather has turned snowy as expected, so far about 8 cm and it's coming down moderately at this late hour, probably on the way to 20-30 cm totals. Temperatures have been just around freezing so this could start to mix with rain at some point during the storm, as the warmer Pacific air comes in over top of us to create chinook conditions east of the Rockies by mid-week. At that point much colder air will hit my region in the wake of the low pressure system.
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13-01-2021, 07:39   #5882
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 13 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Jan will all be fairly close to normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see the last of the heavy rainfall in parts of north-central Ireland moving further east and into the Irish Sea. Some outbreaks of lighter rain may continue but there will be longer dry intervals, partly cloudy to overcast skies, some mist and fog especially on northern hills, and it will be quite mild, with highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT an area of light rain will move in from the Atlantic and winds will gradually turn more westerly and then northwesterly, with slowly falling temperatures. About 5-10 mm rainfalls are expected with this, heaviest across central counties and later into the inland southeast. Lows about 6 C by morning.

THURSDAY the last of this secondary rainfall area will move off the southeast coast and the rest of the day should be essentially dry and a little cooler with highs 6 to 8 C in moderate northwest winds 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY morning will be clear and frosty especially in the eastern half of the country, lows -2 to +3 C, then clouds will slowly increase ahead of an area of rain expected to hit the west coast around late afternoon. Highs will reach about 5-7 C in most areas, 7-10 C on the west coast. The evening and overnight hours will become blustery with heavy rain at times, and winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures will tend to rise in most areas rather than the usual fall expected at night, and may reach 10 C at around 0300h Saturday.

SATURDAY the cold front of this system will race through in the morning, clearing skies and turning winds westerly at about 50 to 80 km/hr, with possibly higher gusts especially near west-facing coasts. Isolated showers may develop in this windy regime and temperatures will be slowly falling through the day from morning values near 8 C to late afternoon readings closer to 4 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy, rather cold, with passing wintry showers on higher ground. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY one last mild sector in this series will race through probably during the first half of the day, with outbreaks of heavy showery rain and winds southwest to west 80 to 110 km/hr, then it will turn considerably colder and there may be some outbreaks of sleet or snow in strong northwest winds. Temperatures near 7 C at first, later close to freezing.

The OUTLOOK has become quite uncertain but most guidance does agree on a cold, rather dry pattern setting in for a few days. Almost anything could happen later next week as guidance splits into many different camps, some show wintry storms developing with this cold hanging on or trying to deepen slightly, others show a fast return to mild weather and rain. We'll have to wait a few days to get any real clarity on which scenario is going to win out, but expect mid-week temperatures to be on the cold side around 5 C daytime and -2 C at night.

My local weather saw the snowfall continue to mid-day, then change over to light sleety rain at times, and it has become quite foggy as temperatures are trying to push up above 2 C. The total snowfall over two days amounted to around 20 cms. When we have nicer weather later this week I'll try to get some photos of the rather impressive snow banks all around the town, haven't been up into the higher elevations yet this winter but I'm guessing from the talk I hear that there's over a metre of snow in the bush a few hundred metres higher up than the town which has about 60 cms level snow now (where not plowed, they tend to plow the streets, sidewalks and spaces in between all in one operation and so you tend to lose track of how much snow there is until you find some undisturbed ground, but there's a good two feet in the old system).
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14-01-2021, 07:33   #5883
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 14 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50% to 75% of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near or slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with some brighter intervals developing. Most if not all areas will have dry conditions or at worst, brief intervals of drizzle or light rain in parts of the southeast. Winds will gradually become northwesterly at about 40-60 km/hr. It will be cooler than yesterday but not particularly cold at 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be chilly as skies clear to allow for frost and some dense fog patches, especially in the inland lowland areas of the southeast and central regions. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will start out with some sunshine through increasing high cloud. You may spot a solar halo around mid-day as clouds thicken, then by evening it will be raining on the west coast but remaining dry to about midnight further east. Rather cold most of the day and getting milder in the evening to midnight/0300h period, temperatures rising slowly to around 7 C in the afternoon and 10-12 C overnight. Not very windy but somewhat stronger winds developing in the evening and overnight (southwest 50-70 km/hr).

SATURDAY the cold front of this system will sweep through around 0300-0600h and partial clearing will follow as the rain ends quickly (10-15 mm expected by Saturday morning). The partly cloudy, breezy and cooler conditions will continue in the afternoon with temperatures slowly falling from morning highs of 10-12 C to afternoon readings near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with some good sunny spells in places, and moderate temperatures, a slight frost to start in some inland areas, lows -2 to +3 C then afternoon highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with rain becoming heavy at times by end of the day, strong south to southwest winds developing, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... the outlook has changed somewhat as this Monday low is now moving east somewhat slower than earlier expected, and won't be past the Irish Sea until about mid-day Tuesday. Therefore Tuesday will start out still rather mild and wet, with cooler air arriving in two waves, one around mid-day dropping temperatures to about 6 C then a second cold front in the evening pushing readings down to freezing or -1 C. Showers and strong westerly winds of 70-100 km/hr will evolve into wintry showers and snow on hills with northwest winds 80-110 km/hr with strong wind chill values by Tuesday night.

The OUTLOOK remains a bit uncertain although various models seem to be converging on a shared solution -- cold air will build in for several days, it may not be quite the coldest possible air mass but it will feel very cold in brisk winds, daytime temperatures 2-4 C and overnight lows -4 to -2 C, passing wintry showers in northwest winds sometimes backing to southwest as troughs rotate around the now-stalled low (from Mon-Tues) parked near the coast of Denmark with a trough to another weaker low near the Orkneys north of Scotland. The big question is, how long will this cold air remain in place before the Atlantic, showing signs of re-energizing around Friday 22nd, pushes back with mild air and rain? Some models say the cold air will hold it back for several more days and yield around the 27th for a time, but with the cold air not pushed very far north and looking like it could make another surge to the south by early February. Other guidance suggests the milder flow will win out around the weekend of the 23rd-24th but it could come in with bands of snow, sleet and rain in succession as the cold air will be reluctant to leave such wonderful surroundings.

My local weather involved a damaging windstorm at dawn; a large tree crashed down across the neighbour's front porch (luckily that house is unoccupied and for sale), the tree being totally uprooted by strong gusts. A deep low pressure area moved past us to the north and raced through Alberta later on (Wed afternoon local time) and is now in North Dakota. This is the low that will show up on Atlantic weather charts over eastern Canada by Sunday, a low heading into the Atlantic by Saturday is already moving through the southeast U.S. bringing them some sleet and light rain. This second low will probably stay west of Greenland when it recurves to the north on Sunday but new lows will form from its extensive warm sector by then. It's those new lows which are complicating the outlook (at this point the genesis for them would be very subtle waves along a cold front in the central U.S.). I can understand why computer models struggle with all these developments when they have to start with two systems that are so far apart now (this low and the Scandinavian high pressure promoting cold air) but will interact somewhere in between a week from now. Anyway, getting back to my local weather, the rest of the day stayed rather windy and the early morning mild temperatures near 5 C quickly fell back below freezing, resulting in all the slush created freezing up, and it was dangerously icy around our town by evening, and around -7 C. The low created a blizzard across some parts of the prairies (well to the north of the international border) and strong but mild westerly winds closer to the border -- it wasn't a true chinook as the air mass was only downsloping briefly and the stronger winds were well out into the flat country rather than near the mountain passes. I'm estimating gusts to 120 km/hr at my location based on how trees were swaying and howling noises -- we tend to get very strong winds here when a westerly wind hits as there's a gap in the local mountain range that funnels them, a strong northwest wind regionally doesn't do the same thing here.
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14-01-2021, 07:33   #5884
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 14 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50% to 75% of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near or slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with some brighter intervals developing. Most if not all areas will have dry conditions or at worst, brief intervals of drizzle or light rain in parts of the southeast. Winds will gradually become northwesterly at about 40-60 km/hr. It will be cooler than yesterday but not particularly cold at 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be chilly as skies clear to allow for frost and some dense fog patches, especially in the inland lowland areas of the southeast and central regions. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will start out with some sunshine through increasing high cloud. You may spot a solar halo around mid-day as clouds thicken, then by evening it will be raining on the west coast but remaining dry to about midnight further east. Rather cold most of the day and getting milder in the evening to midnight/0300h period, temperatures rising slowly to around 7 C in the afternoon and 10-12 C overnight. Not very windy but somewhat stronger winds developing in the evening and overnight (southwest 50-70 km/hr).

SATURDAY the cold front of this system will sweep through around 0300-0600h and partial clearing will follow as the rain ends quickly (10-15 mm expected by Saturday morning). The partly cloudy, breezy and cooler conditions will continue in the afternoon with temperatures slowly falling from morning highs of 10-12 C to afternoon readings near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with some good sunny spells in places, and moderate temperatures, a slight frost to start in some inland areas, lows -2 to +3 C then afternoon highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with rain becoming heavy at times by end of the day, strong south to southwest winds developing, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... the outlook has changed somewhat as this Monday low is now moving east somewhat slower than earlier expected, and won't be past the Irish Sea until about mid-day Tuesday. Therefore Tuesday will start out still rather mild and wet, with cooler air arriving in two waves, one around mid-day dropping temperatures to about 6 C then a second cold front in the evening pushing readings down to freezing or -1 C. Showers and strong westerly winds of 70-100 km/hr will evolve into wintry showers and snow on hills with northwest winds 80-110 km/hr with strong wind chill values by Tuesday night.

The OUTLOOK remains a bit uncertain although various models seem to be converging on a shared solution -- cold air will build in for several days, it may not be quite the coldest possible air mass but it will feel very cold in brisk winds, daytime temperatures 2-4 C and overnight lows -4 to -2 C, passing wintry showers in northwest winds sometimes backing to southwest as troughs rotate around the now-stalled low (from Mon-Tues) parked near the coast of Denmark with a trough to another weaker low near the Orkneys north of Scotland. The big question is, how long will this cold air remain in place before the Atlantic, showing signs of re-energizing around Friday 22nd, pushes back with mild air and rain? Some models say the cold air will hold it back for several more days and yield around the 27th for a time, but with the cold air not pushed very far north and looking like it could make another surge to the south by early February. Other guidance suggests the milder flow will win out around the weekend of the 23rd-24th but it could come in with bands of snow, sleet and rain in succession as the cold air will be reluctant to leave such wonderful surroundings.

My local weather involved a damaging windstorm at dawn; a large tree crashed down across the neighbour's front porch (luckily that house is unoccupied and for sale), the tree being totally uprooted by strong gusts. A deep low pressure area moved past us to the north and raced through Alberta later on (Wed afternoon local time) and is now in North Dakota. This is the low that will show up on Atlantic weather charts over eastern Canada by Sunday, a low heading into the Atlantic by Saturday is already moving through the southeast U.S. bringing them some sleet and light rain. This second low will probably stay west of Greenland when it recurves to the north on Sunday but new lows will form from its extensive warm sector by then. It's those new lows which are complicating the outlook (at this point the genesis for them would be very subtle waves along a cold front in the central U.S.). I can understand why computer models struggle with all these developments when they have to start with two systems that are so far apart now (this low and the Scandinavian high pressure promoting cold air) but will interact somewhere in between a week from now. Anyway, getting back to my local weather, the rest of the day stayed rather windy and the early morning mild temperatures near 5 C quickly fell back below freezing, resulting in all the slush created freezing up, and it was dangerously icy around our town by evening, and around -7 C. The low created a blizzard across some parts of the prairies (well to the north of the international border) and strong but mild westerly winds closer to the border -- it wasn't a true chinook as the air mass was only downsloping briefly and the stronger winds were well out into the flat country rather than near the mountain passes. I'm estimating gusts to 120 km/hr at my location based on how trees were swaying and howling noises -- we tend to get very strong winds here when a westerly wind hits as there's a gap in the local mountain range that funnels them, a strong northwest wind regionally doesn't do the same thing here.
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15-01-2021, 07:21   #5885
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Friday, 15 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, a blend of near normal to mid-day Tuesday 19th, and very cold readings expected towards the middle of next week.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, most of it coming in two periods, Friday night, and Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning. Some wintry showers will follow.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, as several days will have good amounts of sunshine and the average at this time of year is only 2 hours of sunshine a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see increasing cloud dimming any early sunshine, once any fog lifts. Some patchy freezing fog and frost in eastern counties will dissipate fairly quickly but the temperature increase will be slow after reaching 3-5 C and it may still be only around 6 C by evening in some areas, 9-10 C in the west where rain will arrive as winds freshen from the south to 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be windy and wet, with a distinct frontal passage after midnight that might produce a squall line feature, with strong wind gusts and a rumble of thunder possibly. About 15-25 mm rain could fall overnight, winds will veer from south to west-southwest with the frontal passage, peaking at 50-80 km/hr but with potential for higher gusts to develop especially through central counties. This front will be moving into the west coast around midnight and through Dublin around 0300h. Temperatures will be steady near 10 C until the front passes then will fall a few degrees to near 6 C by morning.

SATURDAY will continue rather windy but skies will become partly cloudy with bands of showers feeding in from the Atlantic, 3-5 mm rainfalls are likely from these in western regions, trace to 2 mm further east (after the main band of rain exits). Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY will have some morning frosts, and sunny intervals with cloudy skies at times in the west and north, only isolated showers likely, and a temperature range from lows near -2 C to highs near 8 C.

MONDAY will start out dry and cold in the north and east, while turning quickly milder and overcast in the south and west with light to moderate rain. This may start as sleet on hills in the north around early afternoon. Winds will pick up from the east to southeast, slowly turning more southerly. Lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY NIGHT and the first part of TUESDAY will be influenced by the warm sector of an Atlantic low pressure system, temperatures will peak at around 11 C and there will be 15-25 mm rainfalls with winds south to southwest about 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY mid-day to evening will be a period of strong west to northwest winds 70-110 km/hr and rapidly falling temperatures, with bands of wintry showers developing especially for Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will be around 2 C by evening and wind chills near -5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and cold with snow showers, some wintry mixtures from these near sea level, but accumulations of 1-3 cm on some northern hills. There will be more frequent sunny intervals in the east and south coast counties where wintry showers may be more isolated. Winds northwest 70-110 km/hr will add considerable chill to already low temperatures, with morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs near +1 C, possibly a bit higher near some coasts.

THURSDAY will continue windy and cold, although winds will slowly abate to the 40-70 km/hr range. There will be more areas of wintry showers and snow on hills, with morning lows near -5 C and afternoon highs zero to +2 C.

FRIDAY could bring some outbreaks of snow, the guidance is beginning to come together recently in terms of an enhanced risk of at least light snowfalls developing in the cold air, which may be at its most chilly state by then, with lows near -5 C and highs -1 to +1 C, in variable winds depending on how weak features evolve and move around the region.

The OUTLOOK beyond that into the weekend of 23rd-24th and the following week remains more uncertain, with guidance still split on how many more days of cold weather might follow, some suggestions would place the transition to milder, rainy conditions over that weekend (with snow at first a possibility), other guidance says the cold will dig in and not get pushed out until mid-week (a trend which could keep falling further on into the future since the reliability factor is getting low by then anyway).

My local weather was sunny with increasing high cloud, and the maximum temperatures ranged from -1 C up at my elevation to +3 C in the nearby Columbia valley, so we went there to bask in those milder conditions and do the monthly shopping. The difference in snow depth between our hilly location (40 cm) and the valley (3-5 cm with some grassy areas partly thawed out) was quite noticeable, and I assume if I went up instead of down I might find snow depths up to 80 cm in the alpine areas around here (the tree line in this region is 1600m and some peaks get up to about 2300m, we're closer to 1050m at my location). That strong storm that blew through a couple of nights back now is currently spinning around in Iowa and heading for the Ohio valley. It is pumping up some slightly milder air into eastern states but not very much above their normal January readings of about 7-10 C. Light snow covers the regions to the east and northeast of the storm, which has lost quite a bit of its energy in the past day or two.
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16-01-2021, 07:26   #5886
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 16 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal. It will be near or slightly above normal to mid-day Tuesday, then considerably colder for most of the second half of this interval, reaching 4-5 deg below normal at times then.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, however, almost all of it (now that last night's event is done) will occur on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Wintry showers will follow but these will not give much moisture.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal as all days except Tuesday are likely to bring some sunny intervals. January so far has averaged about 50 per cent above normal over a grid of reporting locations.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, these more frequent in the east and south. Occasional showers will be fairly frequent in the northwest and less frequent elsewhere, amounts generally around 1 mm but locally 3-5 mm in the northwest. Moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr (higher gusts near Atlantic coasts) and highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear and some frost will develop, lows -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY will be sunny with increasing cloudiness, highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will see some brighter intervals at first in the east and southeast, rather cloudy in other regions. One weak front will be edging into Ulster from the Atlantic during the day, while a stronger warm front moves into the southwest by late in the day, bringing rain and moderate southeast winds there. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon to evening highs 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will see intervals of moderate to heavy rainfall, moderate south to southwest winds, and temperatures steady near 10 C. Much colder air will arrive in the northwest by late afternoon and will push into all other regions between then and midnight. Winds rather moderate with this system, as it has a lot of small trough features and the strongest winds will blast around the western periphery offshore, Belmullet may catch those at times on Tuesday night. Temperatures will fall to around 2 C in many areas by late evening and to -3 C by Wednesday morning, as sleety showers turn to snow especially over hills.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and cold; the offshore strong west to northwest winds will move onto land in the morning and spread through all regions by mid-day, reaching 70 to 110 km/hr. Bands of wintry showers will form over the Atlantic and move inland, turning increasingly to snow as they get further inland and especially so when crossing higher ground. Some hail showers may also be in the mix, but the east and south will have some sunny intervals. Morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs 2 to 4 C but feeling more like -5 to -8 C in strong winds.

THURSDAY will be similar except that the wind speeds will be down into a more moderate range of 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures in a similar range (-2 to 3 C) and scattered bands of wintry showers with some snow accumulations possible on hills.

FRIDAY will be less windy but will remain cold, with sunny intervals and isolated wintry showers. Lows near -5 C and highs 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY remains a day of some mystery as model guidance ranges from a brief return to milder conditions with rain, to mixed bands of rain, sleet and snow from south to north, and also some scenarios of a wider snowfall event with strong east winds. Stay tuned on this one, it could go either way (I can predict who already said it will rain).
Temperatures will be determined by which outcome prevails, the all-rain scenario would see a quick rebound to the 8 to 10 C range, the mixed bands would run from that value in the south, to 1-2 C north, and the mostly snow and south coast sleet scenario would probably involve temperatures near or slightly above zero.

By SUNDAY that disturbance, on whatever track it chooses to take, should be over Britain or northern France and colder weather would set in again briefly, with temperatures near 2 C and north to northeast winds. There could be some localized wintry showers with that.

The OUTLOOK for the following week is somewhat uncertain but would most likely see a succession of lows crossing Ireland with mixed bands of precipitation ranging from rain in the south to snow in Ulster and north Leinster. This could shift a bit in either direction, but a lot of the guidance ends mid-week so there is only one model to consult for the second half of the week; that one was trending milder at that point. But the others looked like they might not necessarily follow that lead.

My local weather on Friday was very pleasant for this time of year, sunny with light winds, and a bit of warmth at mid-day (highs 4 to 7 C across the region), but quite cold as soon as the sun set, with clear skies. This allowed me to check for any signs of fading Jupiter, I knew that Saturn must be lost in the solar glow by now as it will be behind the Sun by the first of February, Jupiter is heading there too by mid-February. The local hills blocked out my view of Jupiter even as early as sunset, but there was a pretty crescent new moon with the earthshine on the dark portion quite prominent (meaning I could see the entire globe of the moon despite only the bottom 10% being in sunlight). I noticed also that Mars is considerably dimmer than at its close opposition in the autumn, it now looks no brighter than Aldebaran, the red star in Taurus (which you can see to the upper right of Orion on these winter nights). Have a look this evening and see how the Moon is looking with a bit more illumination by then.
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17-01-2021, 07:22   #5887
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Sunday, 17 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS continue similar, temperatures expected to be mild to late Tuesday then turning a lot colder; near average amounts of precipitation overall but most of that on Tuesday and Wednesday; sunshine making enough appearances to keep up the pace of this quite sunny January (will report on whether we see any record values of sunshine by end of month).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy this morning with the sun gradually disappearing behind high and then medium level clouds streaming in ahead of a complex Atlantic low, but any showery outbreaks of rain later today likely to be confined to Atlantic coastal counties and rather light there. Winds light and variable at first, becoming southeast to south 30 to 50 km/hr at least near west coast by afternoon. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will bring partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, lows 2 to 5 C but some local frost possible in northeast.

MONDAY will be mainly cloudy with a slowly increasing southeast to south wind of 40 to 60 km/hr to 50-80 km/hr later, rain spreading into parts of the southwest and northwest as two frontal boundaries form and begin to work their way east across Ireland by the overnight hours. Highs will reach about 9 C in the south and 6 C in the north.

MONDAY NIGHT will be overcast with outbreaks of rain becoming a bit heavier by morning, 5 to 10 mm in this stage, winds moderate southeast to south 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 3 to 5 C north, 5 to 8 C south.

TUESDAY will bring intervals of rain, gradually adding up to 15-30 mm falls, with some showery bursts and some foggy intervals also, as temperatures slowly creep up to about 11 C in the south and east, staying closer to 6 C in the north where winds will back around to the northeast, while staying south to southwest 30 to 50 km/hr across the south. By Tuesday night, intervals of heavier rain in the southeast, rain turning to sleet and snow over Ulster and this mixture slowly pushing south into the north midlands, as temperatures there fall to near 1 C.

WEDNESDAY the south may remain mild for part of the day but the colder air with the sleety mix turning to wet snow will push gradually south into all of the midlands and even parts of west Munster. Some clearing may follow in Ulster where it will be cold all day. Temperatures will range from 8-10 C in Wexford, Wicklow and the inland southeast, east Cork, to near 5 C in a narrow frontal zone from about Limerick to Dublin, then 1 to 3 C further north. Winds are expected to be rather moderate from the north to northeast in the colder air mass.

A deep low pressure system will form rapidly Wednesday night over the northern parts of Britain and this will end the mild spell for southeastern counties of Ireland, allowing the colder air to start moving faster around the developing storm. Over in Britain, some very heavy snowfalls may develop over higher parts of northern England and southern Scotland. Over eastern Ireland, some bands of mixed wintry showers or sleet with snow on hills appears likely as north to northwest winds increase to about 50-80 km/hr (they will be much stronger over the Irish Sea and north-central Britain).

THURSDAY then will see bands of wintry mixed showers, snow on hills and rain/hail likely at sea level, sleet in transitional zones. These bands may be quite strong in places giving thundery showers of mixed varieties. It will be quite cold, around 3 or 4 C, but morning frosts will not be severe as lows will be -1 to +1 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher in gusts in exposed locations. Wind chills of about -5 C will be perceived.

FRIDAY will continue rather breezy and cold with scattered wintry showers and a bit of snow at times on hills, some bright sunny spells too, lows near -3 C and highs near +3 C.

The weekend of 23rd-24th looks rather unsettled and the storm track could be right across central or southern counties of Ireland, dividing a rather mild south coast from colder central and northern counties, and producing bands of rain, sleet, and snow from south to north. Temperatures are likely to be in the 7 to 10 C range in the south, 3 to 6 C central and 1 to 3 C north. This split scenario may continue with more lows racing along in a rather active jet stream and crossing Ireland at various latitudes, so the frontal boundaries may oscillate north and south from day to day; the net result will be a rather unsettled week and there is probably some potential for another strong low to form around mid-week, details on that are out of realistic modelling range at this point.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a rather thin layer of stratus cloud just above us and obscuring the tops of hills just 2-3 km away and 200-400 metres higher than our location. It was almost dead calm with that and temperatures were around -2 C.
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18-01-2021, 08:06   #5888
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Monday, 18 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1.5 deg below normal, a blend of 3-4 deg above normal to early Wednesday and 4-5 deg below normal thereafter.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25% above normal, and most of that will fall on Tuesday and Wednesday (some will be sleet or snow).
-- Sunshine will be near normal by end of the interval, despite mostly cloudy skies for the first three days.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain starting in the southwest by afternoon, spreading somewhat further north and east. Another area of light rain may brush parts of the northwest coastal areas. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be mild with fog and occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm by morning. Lows 7 to 9 C except 3 to 5 C in parts of Ulster. Winds in most areas will become southeast to south 40 to 60 km/hr, backing to northeast in parts of Ulster.

TUESDAY will see rainfalls of 10-20 mm additional, with winds remaining moderate southeast to south 50 to 70 km/hr for most, easterly 40 to 60 km/hr in Ulster. Foggy at times especially over higher terrain, highs 10 to 12 C. Bands of heavier rain likely in central counties towards south Ulster, totals may reach 50 mm there by Tuesday night with flood risks in poorly drained areas.


WEDNESDAY the rain will continue but will begin to turn to sleet and wet snow, from early morning in parts of the north, mid-day in Leinster, with snow starting to accumulate just before ending late in the day. Winds becoming northerly 40 to 60 km/hr, temperatures near 8 C in the morning in the southeast, otherwise 2 to 4 C most other areas, and those readings will reach the southeast by afternoon. Around +1C by evening with slushy accumulations on lower ground in Leinster, 5-15 cm snowfalls on hills.

THURSDAY will become windy and colder, with bands of wintry showers, snow the main component inland on hills, sleet at somewhat lower elevations and rain/hail/sleet mixtures near sea level. Some sunny intervals between the bands of showers, winds northwest 80 to 110 km/hr. Morning lows near -1 C and highs 1 to 3 C except 4 to 6 C near Atlantic coasts.

At this time parts of northern England and eastern Scotland will have near-blizzard conditions as the low intensifies off the coast of eastern Scotland.

FRIDAY will be sunny and cold with isolated wintry showers, not as windy, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.

The outlook for next weekend is uncertain, cold air will try to hang on but could be quickly replaced in the south by milder air near 8 C and rain, leading to snow or sleet in parts of central and northern counties. There is also a slight risk of snow in the south on Saturday morning from a weak low expected to track south of Ireland into France.

That sort of pattern may repeat from time to time in the following week, with quick temperature changes as waves of low pressure move through Ireland from west to east in a rather active jet stream.

My local weather on Sunday was rather cold with a light snowfall in the early morning, followed by misty skies with glimpses of sun and temperatures steady around -4 C.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 18-01-2021 at 08:22.
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19-01-2021, 07:25   #5889
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Tuesday, 19 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for week of 19 to 25 Jan 2021

-- temperatures will average 2 deg below normal despite today being about 4 deg above, so otherwise rest of the interval closer to 3 below normal.
-- rainfalls will be near average considering that almost half of this event's rainfall may have already fallen especially by the time many read this.
-- sunshine will be near or slightly above normal despite a cloudy first two days.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue mild and foggy in some areas with light rain at times in southern counties, trending to moderate or even heavy rain in the central and northern counties, where a further 20-30 mm may fall, giving totals by late tonight of 50 mm locally (south Ulster and north midlands most likely to see spot flooding problems, just a slow rise of the water table in general leading to saturation of poorly drained areas). Highs around 10 to 12 C for most, with southerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, but closer to 5 C in Ulster where winds east to northeast.

TONIGHT will continue foggy and mild in the south with a bit more rain at times, lows 8 to 10 C, while precipitation turns sleety over the north in slowly falling temperatures and a gradually increasing northerly breeze, temperatures there close to 2 C.

WEDNESDAY the cold air will continue a slow southward push, replacing the milder air rather quickly when it arrives, despite a lack of strong winds; rain will turn to sleet and then wet snow especially in parts of coastal and nearby portions of inland Leinster, with potential for a slushy accumulation of 3 to 6 cms on lower terrain by evening, and 10 to 20 cms "proper snow" on hills. Temperatures will be steady 2 to 5 C in the colder air mass, and will fall from near 8 C in the morning to that range in the southeast. Winds northerly 30 to 50 km/hr except somewhat stronger near west coast at times.

THURSDAY as the storm system (Cristoph) develops a much stronger circulation over Britain, Ireland will also feel the stronger winds, northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, with bands of sleety mixed wintry showers likely, and some snow accumulations on hills in all regions. Very cold especially due to the wind chill, morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs 3 to 5 C, temperatures sometimes dropping during or after snow showers.

FRIDAY will start out with some icy roads and frosts with morning lows of -3 C or lower in some places, and the winds will have eased to 40-60 km/hr, still west to northwest mainly, before becoming more variable later in the day as a weak disturbance may cross the south-central counties, with sleet or snow possible (likely not very much). Highs about 1 to 4 C.

Both days of the weekend are looking fairly dry but cold with little change in temperatures, possibly dipping a bit lower in some areas at night. (so lows -5 to -2 C, highs 3 to 6 C). Scattered but isolated wintry showers possible both days.

By MONDAY a milder air mass will be pushing into the country from the west, arriving about mid-afternoon on the west coast and by evening in the east. There could be sleet changing to rain in some parts of the north however. Highs will eventually reach about 10 C probably near midnight, then TUESDAY will see colder air returning although not as cold as this coming spell, with the rain perhaps ending as sleet or wet snow before clearing, afternoon temperatures 3 to 7 C.

The rest of next week also looks unsettled and variable in temperatures as a parade of rather weak disturbances sets up near the central latitudes of the country, dividing the country at times into a mild south and cold north, with some mixed wintry falls possible along the track of any disturbances.

February may see an interval of colder weather developing after this variable period ends.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and quite cold, with highs only reaching about -7 C. That is not abnormally cold around here in the heart of winter, locals would consider -15 to -20 unusually cold.
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20-01-2021, 07:41   #5890
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Wednesday, 20 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20-26 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, falling into that range later today, then staying 3 to 4 below normal until about Monday night or Tuesday, with the rest of Tuesday milder. The week following looks quite variable and close to 1 or 2 deg above normal (that is 27 Jan to 2 Feb) but may end with colder weather.
-- Rainfalls or melted wintry precip will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal, a little more today then rather dry to the weekend, some more mixed falls late Monday and rain on Tuesday. The week following that should be rather active for rain and possibly snow later into it.
-- Sunshine will eventually reach normal or slightly higher totals once today's cloud is gone.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Colder air continues to press slowly southward and any parts of the southeast still above 8 C (when you read this) will soon turn colder also. Temperatures in most other regions are already in the 2 to 5 C range and will not gain much if any later today as the depth of cold air slowly increases. Any light rain falling in the colder air will eventually turn sleety and then to wet snow before ending this evening. Some parts of central and south Leinster could see slushy accumulations at lower elevations, of 1 to 3 cm by late afternoon; 5 to 15 cms of snow is quite likely on higher terrain in the southeast. Other parts of the country will have either mostly dry weather with a slow clearing trend, or isolated outbreaks of sleet perhaps only in drizzle form. Winds will continue rather light northerly (briefly moderate southwest in Wexford this morning) as storm "Cristoph" begins to assemble its various moving parts in the Irish Sea by later afternoon or evening. This low will develop much more rapidly between Manchester and Newcastle on its way to the North Sea off Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy west, overcast east, some further outbreaks of wet snow or sleet, quite cold, with moderate northerly winds picking up slowly but surely to reach 40 to 60 km/hr northwesterly by morning. Lows around -1 C except somewhat higher near north coast and some parts of the Atlantic coast.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times with bands of mixed wintry showers developing especially around Donegal Bay and west of Galway and Clare ... these will push well inland moving a little south of due east, and dropping a wide variety of sleet, hail, wet snow and cold rain, partly separated out by elevation (snow will be most likely above 200m elevation, rain most likely near sea level). Highs 2 to 5 C inland, east and south coasts, but near 7 C on the west coast. Winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Much stronger winds and heavy high terrain snowfalls are expected from storm Cristoph over in southern and central Scotland and parts of northern England, northwest Wales. There could be as much as 30-40 cms snow in places. The Dublin and Wicklow hills could see 5-15 cm additional, mountains in Ulster and Connacht could also see significant falls. Mountains further south will be more dependent on whether or not the sea effect bands happen to hit their vicinity or not. They could also get 5-10 cm falls if so.

FRIDAY will be a more sunny than cloudy day, still quite cold, but not as windy. There will be a few weaker bands of sea effect mixed wintry showers, turning readily to snow inland Ulster and Connacht, but making little further progress breaking up around the midlands. West Munster could also still see a few isolated wintry showers. Morning lows near -4 C and afternoon highs 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and there could be an interval of light snow in some areas, with coastal sleet, but this will come and go within a few hours, and other parts of the day will be brighter. Lows near -4 C and highs 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy and cold with more chances for light outbreaks of snow or sleet, lows near -5 C and highs 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will be clear in the northeast with a sharp frost then eventually overcast like all other regions starting out, and a cold sleety rain or wet snow may develop by late in the day, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 7 C.

TUESDAY a frontal system may divide the country around Mayo to Meath, with areas north of that prone to mixed wintry sleet and wet snow, areas to the south a little milder with rain, highs 2 to 4 C north, 7 to 10 C south.

By mid-week more active disturbances are likely, and there could be further battleground scenarios with fronts dividing Ireland into colder north and milder south, but the boundaries may fluctuate further south at times, bringing sleety or snowy intervals as far south as inland Munster and south Leinster. One final push north around Thursday 28th may lead to a significant storm that I feel may not be entirely "visible" to the forecast models at this range.

The outlook beyond that is for a somewhat colder interval with some influence from high pressure in Scandinavia, southeast winds and mixed bands of precip likely. A very strong arctic high has pushed west to the north of Siberia for several days now and the models say it will drop southwest towards northern Russia but most of it will return to Siberia; however, a bubble of high pressure breaks away from it and tries to work closer to Sweden and Norway. This holds the key to any possible colder spells in February, and may interact with the stronger stages of the stratospheric events that are already underway. So we can't rule out a more severe wintry interval than any of the three relatively tame ones we will have seen by then.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy but from higher layers well above the local peaks, so it was fairly bright despite all the cloud, and cold with highs around -5 C. Given the recent menu of weather, this means a lot of ice rather than slush on our streets and sidewalks, and tons of grit spread out to make them passable. I'm going to add a recent picture showing how much snow has accumulated here (about 60 cms) but at the same time, this is fairly normal and we lose track of it in town because wide areas are totally cleared of this snow (had to crouch down to take this picture and leave out the view of the cleared street).
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21-01-2021, 08:10   #5891
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Thursday, 21 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Jan 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will be near normal with some precipitation wintry at times.
-- Sunshine will also be near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times with passing showers of sleet, cold rain, or snow, the snow more likely on hills above 250 m elevations. Some sunny breaks will develop especially in eastern counties. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, may ease for a time this afternoon. Highs 3 to 7 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with further bands of mixed wintry showers, snow line coming down to around 200m asl where these showers encounter hills. Quite cold with northwest winds 30 to 60 km/hr. Lows -2 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and windy with passing wintry showers, more frequently now of snow or hail. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts in exposed Atlantic counties. Highs 2 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with more generous sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, some small accumulations of snow at times, continued very cold with lows -3 to +1 C and highs 1 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will continue breezy and cold with passing snow showers, lows -4 to 0 C and highs 1 to 5 C.

MONDAY will start out clear with sharp frosts in many areas away from somewhat milder west coast counties, lows around -6 to 0 C. Increasing cloud leading to sleet by evening, highs 0 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will become somewhat milder especially south of a Galway to Dublin line, where highs of 7 to 10 C are likely with occasional rain. Further north, sleet or wet snow may continue before turning to rain with highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and milder with rain in all areas, strong southwest winds developing, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

The OUTLOOK is unsettled with further battleground scenarios possible (rain south, sleet/snow north), and it may turn colder in general around the weekend of 30-31 January. There are some indications of more significant cold spells for February than these several January episodes.

My local weather was partly cloudy and mild (near 4 C) by afternoon after an overcast and cold start.
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22-01-2021, 07:07   #5892
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Friday, 22 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, a blend of cold to around Monday (3-4 below average) and milder after Tuesday (2-3 above normal then).

-- Rainfalls will average near normal values and there may be significant amounts of snow in the precipitation.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the east than elsewhere, rather frequent mixed wintry showers feeding in from the west and northwest, changing readily to snow over higher parts of the north and west, but the snow line will also be falling to lower elevations by afternoon and evening. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, adding some chill to daytime highs near 4 C in most areas, 7 C near west coast.

TONIGHT will see some clear intervals developing, as wintry showers become confined to Atlantic coastal counties. Lows -4 to -1 C.

SATURDAY will start out clear and cold in many areas, then will become overcast with intervals of sleet or snow developing. These may become rather heavy across the midlands and parts of Munster and Leinster by evening and into the overnight hours, 5 to 15 cm snowfalls are possible although some lower elevations could see mixing and lose some of that total accumulation. Highs 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY there may be a second wave of mixed wintry precipitation after some breaks in the overcast around mid-day and it will remain quite cold, lows near -2 C and highs near 4 C.

MONDAY will have some morning frosts and a slow increase in temperatures later in the day but as rain hits the west coast during the night it may turn to sleet or snow inland for a time until Tuesday morning, temperatures starting out below freezing (lows near -3 C) and rising to the 3-6 C range.

TUESDAY will turn slightly milder as rain pushes in slowly, turning sleet or wet snow over to rain eventually in parts of the inland north. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for the rest of the week is milder with occasional rain and strong southwest winds; timing is a bit uncertain with a number of separate systems expected at roughly 24-36 hour intervals; the strongest of these now appears likely to be the "hidden low" I mentioned as models pick up the energy peak timed for about Thursday night into Friday.

Mild conditions may turn back to cold and snowy before the end of the weekend of 30-31 Jan, and the first week of February is looking rather cold in general with high pressure developing to the northeast, and winds turning easterly as a result. None of this is entirely "carved in stone" this far ahead, so stay tuned. This winter is probably far from done.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and cold with highs (up at our elevation) near -4 C. Despite clear skies overhead we also had cap clouds over local hills, some of which were over low hills to our southeast that don't reach any higher elevations than right around here (a creek valley is in between), so that was an odd sight that I hadn't seen here in my brief residence.
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23-01-2021, 08:15   #5893
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Saturday, 23 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but starting with two quite cold days around 4-5 deg below normal and transitioning to several days 2-4 deg above normal after mid-week.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal, precip to include some wintry mixtures and snow at first, then mostly rain after mid-week.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values as the second half of this interval will become rather cloudy.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out frosty with wintry sunshine for many areas, some isolated freezing fog and locally icy roads, caution advised especially on secondary routes, rather slow to warm even to freezing in some areas, eventually highs will reach 1 to 3 C. Some mixed wintry showers mostly staying close to north and later west coasts.

TONIGHT expect intervals of snow, as rain or sleet will move inland from west coast around 9 p.m. and spread into midlands by midnight, Leinster and east Munster by 0300h. Potential exists for 3-6 cm accumulations and possibly a bit more than that on some higher terrain. Mixed falls are most likely within a few kms of the Atlantic coast and in some lower portions of west Munster. Overnight lows around -3 C in some areas ahead of the snow, where skies clear, temperatures during the snowfall likely to be close to -1 C.

SUNDAY will see this first round of snowfall ending with partial clearing to follow, quite cold with the snow only partly melted away before another round of perhaps more mixed wintry precipitation arrives from the northwest by late afternoon. This may also give 2-4 cm snowfalls in some parts of central, eastern and inland southern counties, but the rain-snow line may make it further inland this time before sleet begins turning to snow. Highs only 0 to 4 C.

MONDAY will provide a third opportunity for some mixed wintry falls as a warm front approaches to end the cold spell eventually, but it will take some time to work its way through Ireland, arriving late Monday and spreading into central counties by Tuesday morning. Monday will start out clear in some areas with lows -4 to -1 C, then with increasing cloud, sleet may begin in some western counties towards evening. Highs 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY the warming will slowly continue with bands of snow, sleet and rain developing and pushing further east and northeast, reaching Ulster by afternoon or evening, as temperatures gradually rise to the 7-10 C range in the south and 4-7 C in the north.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY will bring a parade of lows at almost a daily pace, each one of them could bring intervals of strong southwest winds and moderate to heavy rain showers, the winds likely strongest near the south coast at times (south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr), but sometimes veering westerly producing stronger gusts near the west coast. Temperatures will be generally well above freezing with lows 2-5 C and highs 8-12 C.

By about SUNDAY 31st colder air will be returning, another low will try to follow the same track as the earlier ones but may run into this cold air leading to snow in some parts, sleet or a cold rain further south. This will be followed by quite cold northerly winds around the 1st of Feb (MONDAY) and after that, a battleground scenario may develop as colder air will try to remain in control despite the Atlantic not being entirely shut down. Later into February there are signs of a deeper cold developing with intervals of sub-freezing temperatures and locally heavy snow potential as the very cold air crosses the Irish Sea (for east Ulster, Leinster) or nearby portions of the North Atlantic into Connacht. The ultimate source region for cold air, central Siberia, has become extremely cold in the past week with readings near -60 C, -45 C spreading past the Urals into northeastern European Russia. It should be noted the -60 readings are not only at the traditional frost hollow cold spots in eastern Siberia but at other locations further west where -50 C is often the winter minimum.

My local weather has been sunny and cold during Friday's daylight hours and is now clear and very cold at midnight local time -- high of -5 C followed by readings now around -15 C. A nearly full moon is passing over top of Orion and is just about overhead here now. We're approaching lunar declination maximum when the moon is sometimes as much as 5 deg higher in the sky than the mid-summer sun appears in late June. This is a cycle of 18.6 years due to peak in 2024. Get used to seeing winter full moons very high in the sky as a result. Summer full moons will likewise appear unusually low to the southern horizon.
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24-01-2021, 07:33   #5894
M.T. Cranium
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,701
Sunday, 24 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 1-2 deg above normal, despite today and Monday being rather cold.
-- Rainfall will gradually accumulate to near normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 75% of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue cold with more outbreaks of snow, sleet and mixed wintry showers. Caution advised this morning for icy road conditions scattered throughout the country after overnight snow or mixed sleety precipitation. The most significant chance for further snow will come in Leinster this morning to around early afternoon, as an interval of north-northeast winds allows snow showers to develop near the coast and perhaps as far inland as the midlands at times. Some further accumulations of 2-4 cm are possible. This is not going to be a particularly well-organized event and results are likely to be "hit or miss" in nature. Elsewhere, more isolated snowfalls are likely but the trend in west Munster due to somewhat milder temperatures there will be more towards mixtures of rain, sleet and snow on hills. Highs today will range from about 1-3 C in the north and east, to 5-7 C in the southwest.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times especially over the inland southern counties where lows could fall to about -5 C. Further north, more cloud is likely with mixed wintry showers, some snow accumulations on hills in Ulster. Lows here will be closer to -1 C.

MONDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and outbreaks of sleet or light rain, with slightly milder temperatures developing in most areas, highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will produce bands of wet snow, sleet and rain, all moving slowly north as warm fronts gradually overspread all regions. Highs 4-7 C in the north and 7-10 C south.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy to windy with intervals of rain and milder temperatures, highs near 11 C. Rain may become quite heavy at times by Wednesday night into early Thursday (20-40 mm rainfalls expected).

THURSDAY and FRIDAY appear likely to continue unsettled with strong winds at times and further rainfalls, possibly mixing with sleet in the north as colder air pushes some distance south. Highs will range from near 5 C in the north to 10 C in the south.

The OUTLOOK calls for the unsettled weather to continue with frontal boundaries quite likely to stall out in some northern or north-central counties, with much colder air not far away over eastern Britain during the last weekend of the month and into early February. Not too clear at this point whether the more likely outcome eventually is colder or continued "battleground" scenarios as the Atlantic does not show strong signals of yielding to the slow push of colder air from Scandinavia (which is dependent on a source region further east in Russia and ultimately Siberia).

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few patches of clear sky at times despite a lot of raggedy low cloud drifting around, and it continued rather cold with highs about -5 C.
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25-01-2021, 07:09   #5895
M.T. Cranium
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,701
Monday, 25 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Jan 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal, but the first and possibly also the last two days of the interval will be quite cold, mildest around Wednesday.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal, most of the rain will occur around mid-week.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bitterly cold with local freezing fog, widespread ice and partly refrozen snow making for some very slippery conditions, caution advised. Some hazy or misty sunshine at times later, with a very slow warming trend but eventually most places will see temperatures in the 3 to 7 C range. A few sleety showers will move slowly into parts of west Ulster and Connacht.

TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain at times, spreading in from the west, not making it to the east coast until after daybreak. Lows 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY will see intervals of rain, 10-15 mm likely, with widespread fog developing. Although milder for most, it may remain quite chilly in parts of Ulster. Highs generally 8-10 C but only 3-5 C in Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will bring further intervals of rain, with temperatures steady near 10 C. About 10-20 mm rain can be expected. There is a slight chance of this mixing with sleet in parts of Ulster and north Leinster.

THURSDAY will become windy especially near the south coast, with outbreaks of rain turning to sleet over some parts of the north. Lows near 4 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY will begin to turn somewhat colder with occasional light rain or drizzle, winds becoming northerly and temperatures slowly falling towards 4 C by late in the day.

SATURDAY is expected to be rather cold and there is some risk of sleet or wet snow developing, with low pressure passing to the south. Temperatures only around 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY may turn somewhat milder again with rain, highs near 8 C.

The pattern signalled by most guidance after the end of January into early February is rather cold with the risk of mixed wintry precipitation, although very mild air may not be far away from the south and could push in at times, but the same could be said for cold air near the northern counties. Whether or not any active "battleground" lows or frontal systems develop is not clearly indicated at this time range, but it would not be too surprising given the close proximity of these different air masses.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and quite cold with a few snowflakes from time to time, no accumulation however, and temperatures near -12 C.
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