Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Yesterday, 11:20   #1231
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 13,518
The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.
nacho libre is offline  
Advertisement
Yesterday, 12:33   #1232
Billcarson
Registered User
 
Billcarson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.
Or it could just be a delay and the cold comes in feb.
I think and this is probably hopecasting, that the models will show better charts the last week of Jan and the cold will strike first week of feb.
Billcarson is online now  
(2) thanks from:
Yesterday, 13:06   #1233
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,676
Personally I dont think the models are able to get a handle on the coming weeks scenario at all as it is an all over the place scenario with lows and highs every which way. It will be interesting to see how the actual events pan out but certainly not looking as cold as it once was but neither as mild as some may think.
pauldry is offline  
Thanks from:
Yesterday, 13:07   #1234
Nqp15hhu
Registered User
 
Nqp15hhu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 646
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Personally I dont think the models are able to get a handle on the coming weeks scenario at all as it is an all over the place scenario with lows and highs every which way. It will be interesting to see how the actual events pan out but certainly not looking as cold as it once was but neither as mild as some may think.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it snows in the next week. I have forecast snow in some of the sites for next Wednesday and Thursday.

I can’t imagine it’ll be all mild, as the cold has been quite close at times. Today it is only about 50 miles away.
Nqp15hhu is online now  
Yesterday, 13:15   #1235
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,812
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
not looking at models here either, no point. Still no real change from all the uncertainty and plenty of relatively mild runs in the mix.
Gonzo is online now  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
Yesterday, 13:19   #1236
PokeHerKing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,888
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
not looking at models here either, no point. Still no real change from all the uncertainty and plenty of relatively mild runs in the mix.
I don't think reverse psychology works on the models but I'm willing to try anything too
PokeHerKing is online now  
Yesterday, 13:26   #1237
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,812
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.
was thinking the same, the warming happened almost 2 weeks ago and any strong signals of a proper cold spell are more or less gone. If this worked we should be well into the ramping phase by now or at least very strong signals for cold appearing in all the models. It does appear we get a brief cool spell but it is full of Atlantic modification. February could even bring back a strong Atlantic as the PV will regain most of the strength it lost over the past 6 weeks.
Gonzo is online now  
Thanks from:
Yesterday, 13:41   #1238
Billcarson
Registered User
 
Billcarson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
was thinking the same, the warming happened almost 2 weeks ago and any strong signals of a proper cold spell are more or less gone. If this worked we should be well into the ramping phase by now or at least very strong signals for cold appearing in all the models. It does appear we get a brief cool spell but it is full of Atlantic modification. February could even bring back a strong Atlantic as the PV will regain most of the strength it lost over the past 6 weeks.

But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.

Atm there is a minor warming taking place in the strat.
Still an evolving situation imo.

Last edited by Billcarson; Yesterday at 13:48.
Billcarson is online now  
Yesterday, 13:50   #1239
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 12,812
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billcarson View Post
But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.
The response in 2018 was very quick from what I remember. We seemed to be doing alright this year in terms of the pattern right up to the when the SSW took place, you could say we didn't really need one this winter. We have had extreme unreliability in the models ever since and 'luck' seems to be turning against us if anything, it's possible that this SSW may be changing things not in our favour but we won't know for sure for several more weeks. We could easily end up with a 2012 situation where most of Europe and mainland UK is in the freezer regularly and a case of close but no cigar for Ireland.
Gonzo is online now  
(4) thanks from:
Advertisement
Yesterday, 14:05   #1240
Billcarson
Registered User
 
Billcarson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
The response in 2018 was very quick from what I remember. We seemed to be doing alright this year in terms of the pattern right up to the when the SSW took place, you could say we didn't really need one this winter. We have had extreme unreliability in the models ever since and 'luck' seems to be turning against us if anything, it's possible that this SSW may be changing things not in our favour but we won't know for sure for several more weeks. We could easily end up with a 2012 situation where most of Europe and mainland UK is in the freezer regularly and a case of close but no cigar for Ireland.
One thing I hope we dont end up with is another march 2013,that would be a real kick in the teeth.
Billcarson is online now  
(2) thanks from:
Yesterday, 14:18   #1241
Kunta Kinte
Registered User
 
Kunta Kinte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Posts: 7
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billcarson View Post
One thing I hope we dont end up with is another march 2013,that would be a real kick in the teeth.
What happened then that was so bad?
Kunta Kinte is offline  
Thanks from:
Yesterday, 14:27   #1242
Billcarson
Registered User
 
Billcarson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kunta Kinte View Post
What happened then that was so bad?

Coldest march in 60 yrs . Plenty of northern blocking.
Parts of the north did well regards snow but it was really too late for most.
A number of times that month I had some snow in the ground during the morning, only to be vanished by lunchtime. Frustrating thinking of what could have been if it had been some weeks earlier.
Billcarson is online now  
(2) thanks from:
Yesterday, 14:37   #1243
sicknotexi
Registered User
 
sicknotexi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billcarson View Post
Coldest march in 60 yrs . Plenty of northern blocking.
Parts of the north did well regards snow but it was really too late for most.
A number of times that month I had some snow in the ground during the morning, only to be vanished by lunchtime. Frustrating thinking of what could have been if it had been some weeks earlier.
Remember that, it was cold until early April but we saw no snow. The UK and parts of the North got buried iirc.
sicknotexi is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Yesterday, 14:44   #1244
bazlers
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 303
Something tells me there will be alot more blocking over greenland in tonights runs. Hopfully its not too far West.
bazlers is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Yesterday, 14:53   #1245
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 13,518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Billcarson View Post
But that was if it was a quick troposphere response, which it clearly isn't. The response time can be quick or somewhat slower,like weeks down the line. So I wouldn't give up yet.

Atm there is a minor warming taking place in the strat.
Still an evolving situation imo.
The thing is if we look at the Northern Hemisphere profile its seem quite likely that the SSW has been factored into the output, otherwise we would not be seeing the vortex moved around the way it is ,and the ridging towards the north west. Unfortunately, It's just a timely reminder that you can have all the glorious background signals that suggest we should get cold, but it means diddly squat as to what weather we end up with. Just to be clear i am not saying we won't get snow at times, but the chances of a deep freeze look remote before late January, but then we have the problem of the strat revovering. There is a lag time between this and its effects on the troposphere, so maybe you are right, we could get lucky in early Februrary before any Atlantic take over.

Last edited by nacho libre; Yesterday at 15:18.
nacho libre is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet