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22-12-2020, 20:01   #61
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
A not a photo of a distant hilltop.


i was counting on that ........... (not really )
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26-12-2020, 14:06   #62
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Dublin A yesterday: Max 7.0, Min -1.5. No evidence of snow.
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26-12-2020, 16:49   #63
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It was a dodgy at Dublin Airport yesterday

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26-12-2020, 22:45   #64
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Okay, the bonus seems to be a "no" for snow, I checked hourly reports from Knock all through the 24th and 25th and while there were some showers reported at rather low temperatures on 24th, no evidence for snow, no reports on the forum that might raise any doubts, so unless anyone has an objection, the verdict is no snow. Too bad because it was certainly cold enough with temperatures falling as low as -3 C overnight. (Dub as mentioned above had a range from -1.5 to 7.0 on the day).

Here's how the scoring goes then for the bonus, together with preliminary estimates on all other categories, based on current max and min, IMT of 5.0, PRC and SUN both 105 ... time for these to change a bit but it was going to be equal amounts of work to score them or remove them from my block copy, so here goes the earliest ever preliminary scoring report ... I will leave them in forecast table order for now. Also, as MIN has some chance of dropping below current -4.8, have left in any zero-scoring values below -6.8 (in brackets) and have marked with an asterisk (*) any scores that can improve with a lower value (scores not marked can only drop now). Bonus temperatures are scored separately (max scores 0-5, min scores 0-5).

Preliminary scoring for Dec 2020

FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub 25th_Y/N ______ TOTAL

Gonzo ___________ 16 _ 19 _ 20 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 00 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 80

MrSkinner ________ 16 _ 17 _ 19*_ 06_ 07 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 74

Tae laidir _________16 _ 17 _ 16 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 00 __ 3 _______ 75

Eon1208 _________16 _ 12 _ 10*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 66

Joe Public ________ 16 _ 07_(-7.9)_08_ 09 ___ 02 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 47

Appledrop ________ 17 _ 20 _ 12 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 75

Pauldry __________ 18 _ 18 _ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 79

Bsal _____________19 _ 18 _ 18*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 86

Sunflower3 _______ 19 _ 17 _ 17 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 71

Rikand ___________20 _ 12 _ 08*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 66

john mac _________20 _ 15 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 83

dasa29 __________ 20 _ 18 _ 08*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 83

sryanbruen _______ 20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 73

Adam240610 _____ 21 _ 07 _ 08*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 68


___ NormaL ______ 21 _ 07 _ 08*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 68


DOCARCH ________ 22 _ 11 _ 14 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 77


___ Con Sensus ___ 22 _ 19 _ 18*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 04 __ 1 _______ 90


Funsterdelux _(-2) _ 23 _ 03 _ 19 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 __ 78-2= 76

SleetAndSnow -10) _23 _ 19 _ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 0 __ 77-10=67

Dacogawa ________24 _ 19 _ 11*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 81

Bazlers __________ 24 _ 19 _ 04*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 72

sdanseo _________ 24 _ 18 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 79

Artane2002 ______ 24 _ 16 _ 16 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 84

Tazio __ (-2) _____ 24 _ 00 _ 04 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 __ 53-2 = 51

WesternStorm ____ 25 _ 16 _ 18*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 _______ 92

mickger844posts __ 25 _ 19 _ 12 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 84

waterways _______ 25 _ 13 _ 07*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 73

M.T. Cranium _____ 24 _ 14 _ 01*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 62

Danno _ (-12) ____ 24 _ 18 _ 15*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 __ 79-12=67

Mr Stonewall _____ 24 _ 19 _ 14*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 84

Jpmarn __________23 _ 14 _ 13*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 79

BLIZZARD7_ (-2) __05 _ 06_(-11.5)_10_05 ___ 00 _ 00 __ 0 __ 26-2 =24

____________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)


FORECASTER _____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub 25th _ Y/N

Gonzo ___________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ -4.8 _ 096 _ 102 __ 12.4, 5.3, No

MrSkinner ________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _ -4.9 _ 079 _ 089 ___ 9.9, 0.9, nein(no)

Tae laidir _________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _ -4.4 _ 115 _ 105 __ 11.2, 7.3, No

Eon1208 _________ 5.9 _ 13.4 _ -5.8 _ 096 _ 094 ___ 8.2, -2.1, Yes, Ballyhaise

Joe Public ________ 5.9 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 083 _ 110 ___ 4.4, -2.5, Yes, Knock

Appledrop ________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 080__ 11.2, 2.5, No

Pauldry __________ 5.7 _ 14.4 _ -4.7 _ 120 _ 089 __ 10.0, 4.1, No

Bsal _____________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 102 _ 097 ___ 8.5, 2.1, No

Sunflower3 _______ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 9.5, 1.5, No

Rikand ___________5.5 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, -2.0, yes, knock

john mac _________5.5 _ 14.7 _ -4.6 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 9.1, 1.8, yes, knock

dasa29 __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 6.5, -3.5, No

sryanbruen _______ 5.5 _ 13.9 _ -4.2 _ 080 _ 105 __ 11.1, 4.8, No

Adam240610 _____ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.0, 2.0, no


___ NormaL ______ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.0, 2.0, no


DOCARCH ________ 5.3 _ 15.1 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 4.8, -0.5, Yes, Knock


___ Con Sensus ___ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ -5.0 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 8.0, 0.4, tied number yes,no


Funsterdelux _(-2) _ 5.2 _ 15.9 _ -4.7 _ 093 _ 099 ___ 7.0, -1.0, no

SleetAndSnow -10) _5.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.4 _ 085 _ 110 _ 11.5, 4.8, Yes, Knock

Dacogawa ________5.1 _ 14.3 _ -5.7 _ 118 _ 092 ___ 6.0, -2.4, Yes, Casement

Bazlers __________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 3.5, -2.8, yes, Casement

sdanseo _________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 099 _ 114 ___ 6.8, -0.1, Yes, Knock

Artane2002 ______ 5.1 _ 13.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 095 __ 10.2, 3.8, No

Tazio __ (-2) _____ 5.1 _ 11.1 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 101 ___ 9.5, 2.2, No

WesternStorm ____ 5.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.0 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 6.8, -0.5, no

mickger844posts __ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 105 __ 10.1, 2.8, No

waterways _______ 5.0 _ 13.5 _ -6.1 _ 103 _ 097 ___ 9.0, 2.7, yes, Knock

M.T. Cranium _____ 4.9 _ 14.8 _ -6.7 _ 125 _ 110 ___ 3.7, -2.5, yes, Casement

Danno _ (-12) ____ 4.9 _ 14.4 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 135 ___ 5.1, -5.2, yes, Ballyhaise

Mr Stonewall _____ 4.9 _ 14.3 _ -5.4 _ 091 _ 098 ___ 5.2, -1.1, yes, Knock

Jpmarn __________4.8 _ 14.8 _ -5.5 _ 110_ 105 ___ 7.5, -1.5, Yes, Knock

BLIZZARD7_ (-2) __3.0 _ 12.8 _-11.5_ 090 _ 130 ___-0.5, -7.5, Yes, Casement

____________________________________________________


Comments on the bonus temperature predictions ...

These were scored by error ranges and not by equal numbers of forecasts at scoring intervals. Several forecasters maxed out and also got the 3 point bonus showing quite a bit of skill (in the guesswork) since it was both colder than average and devoid of snow. The closest forecasts to each value are as follows:

MAX 7.0 __ Funsterdelux (7.0), Western Storm and sdanseo (6.8), JPmarn (7.5) tied dasa29 (6.5),

MIN -1.5 __ JPmarn (-1.5), MrStonewall (-1.1), funsterdelux (-1.0) tied rikand (-2.0), Eon1208 (-2.1).

_______________________

Comments on the overall scoring ...

So far so good for many of us, a few can improve significantly if we see a lower MIN, so the scoring order is not guaranteed to follow this preliminary suggestion. A few of us can move up significantly with a MIN in the -6 to -7 range although the lower it goes, the more we'll need minimum progression scoring.

I haven't looked at the annual scoring to see what these numbers might mean there, will leave all that until we have actual finalized scoring.

Best wishes to all of you for the holidays, we'll get through this.
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30-12-2020, 08:04   #65
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After four weeks and a day where I forgot to update but the information is still there which is good ...

IMT now sits at 5.3 C with this past week at 4.0, about 1.3 below average for late December. Still think 5.0 or 5.1 will be the landing spot.

MAX remains 14.2 -- probably set now.

MIN remains -4.8 -- very slight chance of beating this tonight or by midnight 31st. (probably not)

PRC has reached 133% with this past week at 158% of normal (the 26th turned out quite wet, so my previous estimate for the scoring will need to be reworked, look for new provisional scoring table soon). The amount already received guarantees 120% at end of month, and we probably won't go much higher.

SUN has dipped to 101.5% with this past week only 84.5% (507/600). Even so, with a bit of additional brightness each day 29th-31st, this should verify near the 105% that I used for the scoring.

Bonus has been scored and discussed if you didn't already notice, in previous posts. (7.0, -1.5, no snow).

Will post that revised for PRC scoring in a moment.
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30-12-2020, 08:43   #66
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Updated preliminary scoring report -- changes for PRC

As noted in the week four report, PRC is going to come in closer to 122% than the 105% that was used in the first version of this scoring, so here's the update -- a few people remain with similar scores if they predicted around 110 to 115 per cent, error changes there are small. Others could lose up to five or six points and one or two have gained that many.

I have now moved the scoring into rank order since I'm a bit more confident it will resemble the final version. The asterisks remain for those who have a chance to improve their MIN scoring.

Preliminary scoring for Dec 2020

FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub 25th_Y/N ______ TOTAL


WesternStorm ____ 25 _ 16 _ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 _______ 86


___ Con Sensus ___22 _ 19 _ 18*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 04 __ 1 _______ 85


Dacogawa ________24 _ 19 _ 11*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 84

Pauldry __________ 18 _ 18 _ 19 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 83

Jpmarn __________ 23 _ 14 _ 13*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 81

Bsal ____________ 19 _ 18 _ 18*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 80

Mr Stonewall _____ 24 _ 19 _ 14*_ 05 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 79

Artane2002 ______ 24 _ 16 _ 16 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 79

mickger844posts __ 25 _ 19 _ 12 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 78

john mac _________20 _ 15 _ 18 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 77

dasa29 __________ 20 _ 18 _ 08*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 77

Tae laidir _________16 _ 17 _ 16 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 00 __ 3 _______ 75

Gonzo ___________ 16 _ 19 _ 20 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 00 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 74

Bazlers __________ 24 _ 19 _ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 73

sdanseo _________ 24 _ 18 _ 06*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 73

Sunflower3 _______ 19 _ 17 _ 17 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 71

DOCARCH ________ 22 _ 11 _ 14 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 71

Funsterdelux _(-2) _ 23 _ 03 _ 19 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 __ 72-2= 70

MrSkinner ________ 16 _ 17 _ 19*_ 01_ 07 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 69

Appledrop ________ 17 _ 20 _ 12 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 69

waterways _______ 25 _ 13 _ 07*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 68

M.T. Cranium _____ 24 _ 14 _ 01*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 68

sryanbruen _______ 20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 01 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 67

Adam240610 _____ 21 _ 07 _ 08*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 63


___ NormaL ______ 21 _ 07 _ 08*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 63


SleetAndSnow -10) _23 _ 19 _ 16 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 0 __ 72-10=62

Danno _ (-12) ____ 24 _ 18 _ 15*_ 04 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 __ 73-12=61

Eon1208 _________16 _ 12 _ 10*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 60

Rikand __________ 20 _ 12 _ 08*_ 04 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 60

Tazio __ (-2) _____ 24 _ 00 _ 04 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 __ 48-2 = 46

Joe Public ________ 16 _ 07_(-7.9)_02_ 09 ___ 02 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 41

BLIZZARD7_ (-2) __05 _ 06_(-11.5)_04_05 ___ 00 _ 00 __ 0 __ 20-2 =18

____________________________________________________

Not an issue now, but I had an error for JPmarn's precip score in version one, that should have been 13 rather than 09. So this new version while it may appear to add points actually took away two from the original corrected total of 83. For sunflower3 there was also an error in version one and that took about the same number of points as what was actually deducted today so that score remains the same as in version one although it has really dropped by about five. Will be checking all these scores carefully on 2nd Jan when the final version comes due.

If this works out, it would be one of the highest scoring months for the field (which is why Con Sensus did so well) and whoever emerges with contest high scores at end of 2020 will have won against a strong field. I have no idea how that's going, will leave it all as a surprise ending.
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01-01-2021, 21:55   #67
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Well, having my morning coffee here at 1:45 p.m. and fresh in from my battle with the recent 15 cm snowfall -- expected to find some final December numbers on the met.ie website but they have not updated monthly data since the 30th, so here's what I do know ...

IMT was 5.06 to 30th, then the 31st averaged about 1.5 C. That is cold enough to bring the monthly average down a bit below 4.95, so the IMT is going to be either 4.9 or 5.0 depending on how that works out in the monthly numbers.

MAX remained 14.2 and MIN -4.8 (Athenry got as low as -4.4 on 31st, no change there).

PRC appears to be in the ball park of 125% but may be closer to 130%, I added up the surplus amounts at the eleven stations (ten of which had a surplus) and that was close to 300 mm, then about 30 mm fell over the grid on the 31st, so if the average station amount is 110, that's like three extra stations, 14/11 = 1.27 ... anyway, the PRC scores are pretty much set regardless because the higher PRC goes, the more need there might be to boost the scores back to where I had them for 122%.

SUN has been a bit more generous than average (doesn't take much in late Dec) since the 28th, expecting that to edge back up to 105%.

Not sure when the schedule will return to normal at met.ie, I suppose the monthly summary could be as late as middle of next week, so I'll have to ask for your patience as I await the data needed to finalize these scores. I am going to peek at the annual totals and compare with current estimates to see what sort of situation this creates for declaring an annual contest champ (or champs since there are two ways to win). If it doesn't look too dependent on the known range of uncertainty in Dec scores, I may go ahead and post that on Monday.

Back to the task of coming to grips with the rest of my in-box. Happy new year.
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01-01-2021, 23:56   #68
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This is the annual scoring table without December added in ... I won't do that or comment on it until the December scores are official but you can see it's close at the top of the table both then and now.

(Annual scoring Jan to Nov 2020)

rank (prev)_FORECASTER___Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov _TOTAL___Best 9/11 (rank, prev)



(01)_(01) __ NormaL ______70 _50 _73 _55 _52 _78 _59 _70 _71 _60 _73 __ 711 ____ 609 (01) (01)


01_(01)_Jpmarn __________86 _51 _50 _61 _39 _62 _73 _71 _61 _64 _70 __ 688 ____ 599 (01) (01)

02_(03)_ Dasa29 _________ 48 _70 _55 _38 _53 _63 _66 _70 _76 _61 _84 __ 684 ____ 598 (02) (03t)

05_(04) _Pauldry _________ 63 _36 _58 _69 _46 _79 _77 _76 _38 _51 _66 __ 659 ____ 585 (03) (02)

03_(02)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _54 _72 _61 _60 _49 _49 _62 _49 _70 _59 __ 671 ____ 573 (04t) (03t)

04_(09) _Artane2002 ______56 _63 _65 _69 _52 _50 _61 _42 _59 _64 _84 __ 665 ____ 573 (04t) (10)


(03)_(t02)__ Con Sensus ___70 _62 _59 _69 _57 _64 _58 _49 _60 _64 _65 __ 677 ____ 571 (06) (07)


15_(14)_Rikand __________ 68 _38 _64 _73 _66 _41 _--- _71 _68 _61 _50 __ 600 ____ 562 (06) (05)

06_(06)_DOCARCH ________58 _61 _62 _50 _54 _69 _62 _68 _47 _57 _70 __ 658 ____ 561 (07t) (09)

08_(11)_ Kindred Spirit_____ 61 _63 _71 _71 _60 _53 _37 _53 _48 _55 _74 __ 646 ____ 561 (07t) (12t)

10 _(05) _sryanbruen ______ 47 _58 _88 _71 _43 _54 _70 _35 _58 _65 _46 __ 635 ____ 557 (09) (06)

07_(08)_ mickger844posts __ 55 _63 _60 _48 _74 _59 _54 _53 _50 _70 _62 __ 648 ____ 550 (10) (11)

17_(15)_200motels ________47 _--- _75 _61 _60 _65 _60 _43 _64 _65 _52 __ 592 ____ 549 (11t) (07)

13_(12) _ Adam240610 ____ 62 _38 _58 _69 _47 _80 _64 _37 _58 _54 _57 __ 624 ____ 549 (11t) (08)

09_(10)_Bsal _____________62 _54 _57 _52 _48 _49 _67 _65 _56 _64 _70 __ 644 ____ 547 (13) (16)

12_(13)_ Sunflower3 _______68 _60 _50 _57 _51 _71 _32 _68 _51 _53 _66 __ 627 ____ 545 (14) (15)

14_(17)_M.T. Cranium ______69 _59 _60 _51 _35 _75 _46 _44 _64 _42 _73 __ 618 ____ 541 (15) (18)

11_(07)_ Dacogawa ________73 _64 _53 _51 _62 _59 _63 _62 _50 _50 _43 __ 630 ____ 537 (16) (12t)

18_(18)_Joe Public ________ 70 _65 _42 _39 _78 _59 _--- _47 _69 _56 _46 __ 571 ____ 532 (17) (14)

19_(19) _waterways _______--- _54 _42 _44 _67 _42 _63 _57 _86 _58 _53 __ 566 ____ 524 (18) (17)

16_(16) _john mac ________ 64 _46 _52 _61 _59 _57 _41 _51 _55 _60 _50 __ 596 ____ 509 (19) (19)

20_(20) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _49 _48 _49 _53 _45 _37 _35 _60 _54 _66 __ 563 ____ 491 (20) (20)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 ______ 66 _36 _47 _44 _53 _15 _--- _29 _46 _42 _21 __ 399 ____ 384 (21) (21)


22_(22)_Appledrop ________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _80 _71 _48 _66 _70 __ 312

23 _(23)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _--- _--- _--- _34 _50 _--- _43 _69 _74 _40 __ 310

24 _(25)_WesternStorm _____54 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _20 _48 _56 _49 _65 __ 292

25 _(24) _Gonzo __________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 84 _25 _68 _61 _53 __ 291

26 _(26) _Eon1208 ________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 50 _57 _32 _68 _76 __ 273

27_ (27)_Tazio ____________--- _--- _--- _68 _--- _35 _--- _--- _47 _--- _--- __ 150

28 _(28) _Danno __________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _71 _25 ___ 96

29 _(29)_JCXBXC __________58 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 58

30 _(30)_esposito _________ 49 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 49

31 _(31) _sdanseo _________--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _--- ___ 47

32 _ (---) _SleetAndSnow ___ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _43 ___ 43

=================================================
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02-01-2021, 00:03   #69
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Happy New Year M.T.

I just wanted to say thanks so much for all the time you put into monthly weather forecast contest.

I only found this thread during lockdown but hopefully I'm here for long haul now in 2021!
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02-01-2021, 21:08   #70
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Thanks, I enjoy the process especially the banter with contest entrants over the years.

The met.ie website has updated and so the IMT worked out to be 5.0 (from 4.96), which means that provisional IMT scores are now confirmed, and the PRC looks like 131%. It would drop all scores by 3 which brings us into a mild boost situation so probably the scores there now will just be converted to minimum progression scores instead. Whatever I do, it would leave all scores at the same relative levels.

The only things that can now change in scoring would be SUN and if we somehow missed the actual MAX and MIN.

But it may not be until mid-week that we can confirm all this and declare an annual contest winner. However, looking at the Dec forecasts of 1-2-3 as now calculated it would seem impossible mathematically for any new information in those categories to change the outcome.
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05-01-2021, 13:46   #71
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Confirmed scoring for December 2020

The final values for most elements were confirmed by the MS, the PRC works out to 129% and SUN increased to 118% according to their monthly totals and normals. These have caused a slight change in the scoring previously listed for PRC and SUN.



FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub 25th_Y/N ______ TOTAL


WesternStorm ____ 25 _ 16 _ 18 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 _______ 81

Dacogawa ________24 _ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 80


___ Con Sensus ___22 _ 19 _ 18 _ 04 _ 06 ___ 04 _ 04 __ 1 _______ 78


Pauldry __________ 18 _ 18 _ 19 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 78

Jpmarn __________ 23 _ 14 _ 13 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 76

Bsal ____________ 19 _ 18 _ 18 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 76

Mr Stonewall _____ 24 _ 19 _ 14 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 74

Bazlers __________ 24 _ 19 _ 04 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 74

mickger844posts __ 25 _ 19 _ 12 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 73

Artane2002 ______ 24 _ 16 _ 16 _ 05 _ 05 ___ 02 _ 02 __ 3 _______ 73

sdanseo _________ 24 _ 18 _ 06 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 72

john mac ________ 20 _ 15 _ 18 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 72

dasa29 __________ 20 _ 18 _ 08 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 72

Tae laidir _________16 _ 17 _ 16 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 00 __ 3 _______ 70

Gonzo ___________ 16 _ 19 _ 20 _ 04 _ 07 ___ 00 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 70

Sunflower3 _______ 19 _ 17 _ 17 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 68

DOCARCH ________ 22 _ 11 _ 14 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 67

M.T. Cranium _____ 24 _ 14 _ 01 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 67

Funsterdelux _(-2) _ 23 _ 03 _ 19 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 05 _ 05 __ 3 __ 67-2= 65

MrSkinner ________ 16 _ 17 _ 19 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 04 __ 3 _______ 65

Appledrop ________ 17 _ 20 _ 12 _ 07 _ 03 ___ 00 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 65

Rikand ___________20 _ 12 _ 08 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 64

waterways ________25 _ 13 _ 07 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 _______ 63

sryanbruen _______20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 3 _______ 63

SleetAndSnow -10)_23 _ 19 _ 16 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 01 __ 0 __70-10=60

Danno _ (-12) ____ 24 _ 18 _ 15 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 03 _ 03 __ 0 __72-12=60

Adam240610 _____ 21 _ 07 _ 08 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 57


___ NormaL ______ 21 _ 07 _ 08 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 04 _ 03 __ 3 _______ 57


Eon1208 _________16 _ 12 _ 10 _ 04 _ 05 ___ 03 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 55

Tazio __ (-2) _____ 24 _ 00 _ 04 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 03 __ 3 __ 44-2 = 42

Joe Public ________16 _ 07 _ 00 _ 00 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 05 __ 0 _______ 39

BLIZZARD7_ (-2) __05 _ 06 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 00 _ 00 __ 0 __ 21-2 =19

____________________________________________________


Final scoring for the 2020 contest year Jan to Dec


The last version of preliminary scoring is now confirmed. All estimates were either correct or in the case of PRC the increase to 129% dropped all scores by about 2 points, and SUN came in a bit higher (118%) with the same effect on most scores. As almost everyone would have been counting December in their best 10/12, in particular all near the top of the standings, these changes could have been significant but I don't think they made for many changes in the order of the final contest standings.


rank (prev)_FORECASTER__Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec _TOTAL__Best 10/12 (rank, prev)



01_(01)_Jpmarn _________86 _51 _50 _61 _39 _62 _73 _71 _61 _64 _70 _76 __ 764 ___ 675 (01) (01)

02_(02)_ Dasa29 ________ 48 _70 _55 _38 _53 _63 _66 _70 _76 _61 _84 _72 __ 756 ___ 670 (02) (02)


(01)_(01) __ NormaL _____70 _50 _73 _55 _52 _78 _59 _70 _71 _60 _73 _57 __ 768 ___ 666 (03) (01)


04_(05) _Pauldry ________ 63 _36 _58 _69 _46 _79 _77 _76 _38 _51 _66 _78 __ 737 ___ 663 (03) (03)


(03)_(03)__ Con Sensus ___70 _62 _59 _69 _57 _64 _58 _49 _60 _64 _65 _78 __ 755 ___ 649 (04) (06)


03_(04) _Artane2002 ______56 _63 _65 _69 _52 _50 _61 _42 _59 _64 _84 _73 __ 738 ___ 646 (04) (04t)

05_(03)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _54 _72 _61 _60 _49 _49 _62 _49 _70 _59 _65 __ 736 ___ 638 (05) (04t)

06_(06)_DOCARCH ________58 _61 _62 _50 _54 _69 _62 _68 _47 _57 _70 _67 __ 725 ___ 628 (06) (07t)

15_(15)_Rikand __________ 68 _38 _64 _73 _66 _41 _--- _71 _68 _61 _50 _64 __ 664 ___ 626 (07) (06)

07_(07)_ mickger844posts __55 _63 _60 _48 _74 _59 _54 _53 _50 _70 _62 _73 __ 721 ___ 623 (08t) (10)

08_(09)_Bsal _____________62 _54 _57 _52 _48 _49 _67 _65 _56 _64 _70 _76 __ 720 ___ 623 (08t) (13)

10_(10) _sryanbruen ______ 47 _58 _88 _71 _43 _54 _70 _35 _58 _65 _46 _63 __ 698 ___ 620 (10) (09)

09_(11)_ Dacogawa _______ 73 _64 _53 _51 _62 _59 _63 _62 _50 _50 _43 _80 __ 710 ___ 617 (11) (16)

11_(12)_ Sunflower3 ______ 68 _60 _50 _57 _51 _71 _32 _68 _51 _53 _66 _68 __ 695 ___ 613 (12) (14)

16_(08)_ Kindred Spirit_____61 _63 _71 _71 _60 _53 _37 _53 _48 _55 _74 _--- __ 646 ___ 609 (13) (07t)

12_(14)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _59 _60 _51 _35 _75 _46 _44 _64 _42 _73 _67 __ 685 ___ 608 (14) (15)

13_(13) _ Adam240610 ____ 62 _38 _58 _69 _47 _80 _64 _37 _58 _54 _57 _57 __ 681 ___ 606 (15) (11t)

20_(17)_200motels ________47 _--- _75 _61 _60 _65 _60 _43 _64 _65 _52 _--- __ 592 ___ 592 (16) (11t)

18_(19) _waterways _______--- _54 _42 _44 _67 _42 _63 _57 _86 _58 _53 _63 __ 629 ___ 587 (17) (18)

14_(16) _john mac ________ 64 _46 _52 _61 _59 _57 _41 _51 _55 _60 _50 _72 __ 668 ___ 581 (18) (19)

19_(18)_Joe Public ________ 70 _65 _42 _39 _78 _59 _--- _47 _69 _56 _46 _39 __ 610 ___ 571 (19) (17)

17_(20) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _49 _48 _49 _53 _45 _37 _35 _60 _54 _66 _70 __ 633 ___ 561 (20) (20)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 ______ 66 _36 _47 _44 _53 _15 _--- _29 _46 _42 _21 _19 __ 418 ___ 403 (21) (21)

22 _(23)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _--- _--- _--- _34 _50 _--- _43 _69 _74 _40 _74 __ 384

23 _(22)_Appledrop _______ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _80 _71 _48 _66 _70 _65 __ 377

24 _(24)_WesternStorm ____54 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _20 _48 _56 _49 _65 _81 __ 373

25 _(25) _Gonzo _________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 84 _25 _68 _61 _53 _70 __ 361

26 _(26) _Eon1208 _______ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 50 _57 _32 _68 _76 _55 __ 328

27_ (27)_Tazio ___________--- _--- _--- _68 _--- _35 _--- _--- _47 _--- _--- _ 42 __ 192

28 _(28) _Danno _________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _71 _25 _ 60 __ 156

29 _(31) _sdanseo ________--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _47 _--- _ 72 ___119

30 _(32) _SleetAndSnow ____--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _43 _ 60 __ 103

31 _(---)_Bazlers _________ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 74 ___ 74

32 _(---)_funsterdelux _____ --- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 65 ___ 65

33 _(29)_JCXBXC _________58 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ --- ___ 58

34 _(30)_esposito ________ 49 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ --- ___ 49

=================================================

Contest summary ___

Congrats then to JPmarn who finished first in both contests (Boards award for best 10/12 score, MTC award for best total score), and to dasa29 who finished second in both contests.

Both of them managed to edge past NormaL in the best 10/12 portion, although NormaL retained high score in the all-12 part of the contest. Pauldry had a strong finish and edged into third place in the best 10/12 and fourth in the total score. Artane2002 was 3rd in total score and 4th in the best 10/12. Then MrSkinner and DOCARCH held down 5th and 6th positions in both contests.

You'll notice that we have been joined by half a dozen or so who joined mid-year and have played regularly, and their prorated scoring looks quite competitive with the top of the table, so the 2021 contests should be quite competitive.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
11-01-2021, 03:11   #72
M.T. Cranium
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In the Dec 2019 year end summary, I added a log of all-time contest records including high scores.

Here's an updated version of that table. The other information (tables for each contest year are listed) can be seen at this link:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...8034315&page=4

________________________________________________


Best monthly forecasts (all scores 83+ appear here) 2010 to 2020

FORECASTER _______Month _____ Score

John mac _________ 06 2013 _____ 94

BLIZZARD7 ________05 2018 _____ 92

Con Sensus ________03 2014 _____ 92

Artane2002 ________07 2019 _____ 91

Con Sensus ________11 2017 _____ 91

mickger844posts ____12 2019 _____ 90

dacogawa __________07 2017 _____ 90

NormaL ___________ 12 2017 _____ 90

mickger844posts ____ 02 2015 _____ 90

Schadenfreudia _____ 11 2015 _____ 90

Pauldry ____________03 2018 _____ 89

Western Storm ______11 2017 _____ 89

Lumi, dacogawa _____03 2016 _____ 89

___ mickger844posts_03 2016 _____ 89

sunflower3 ________ 12 2016 _____ 89

sryanbruen ________ 04 2020 _____ 88

MrSkinner _________ 12 2019 _____ 88

Rameire ___________07 2018 _____ 88

M.T. Cranium _______11 2016 _____ 88

Kindred spirit _______12 2014 _____ 88

Strasser ___________12 2011 _____ 88

waterways _________12 2019 _____ 87

Kindred spirit _______11 2018 _____ 87

Joe Public __________05 2017 _____ 87

Sponge Bob ________ 11 2012 _____ 87

MrSkinner __________ 01 2020 _____ 86

JPmarn ____________ 01 2020 _____ 86

M.T. Cranium ________05 2018 _____ 86

Tae laidir ___________ 01 2016 _____ 86

M.T. Cranium ________04 2015 _____ 86

dasa29 _____________03 2019 _____ 85

Pauldry ____________ 07 2019 _____ 85

200motels __________05 2018 _____ 85

sryanbruen _________ 07 2018 _____ 85

NormaL ____________ 08 2018 _____ 85

MrSkinner __________ 03 2015 _____ 85

Tae laidir ___________ 02 2014 _____ 85

omicron ____________03 2014 _____ 85

dasa29, Artane 2002__ 11 2020 _____ 84

Gonzo _____________ 07 2020 _____ 84

waterways __________ 06 2019 _____ 84

rikand ______________01 2015 _____ 84

JPmarn _____________12 2013 _____ 84

Con Sensus _________ 11 2012 _____ 84

Tae laidir ___________ 12 2011 _____ 84

Tae laidir ___________ 03,07 2019 ___83

John mac ___________ 06 2019 _____ 83

dasa29 _____________ 03 2018 _____ 83

Rougies _____________11 2017 _____ 83

John mac ___________ 10 2016 _____ 83

DOCARCH ___________10 2015 _____ 83

Con Sensus _________ 04 2014 _____ 83

DOCARCH __________ 10 2013 _____ 83

(the highest score in 2010 was 83, Joe Public had that one in April 2010).

note: high scores for other regulars, 82 Dec 2018 for Adam240610, 81 Aug 2017 for Bsal.

-------------------------------------------------------

also updating this table of all-time performances from 2020 results (partial annual participation not used as it would distort full-time averages from earlier) ... and note, this table has used only "best 10/12" ranks which tend to discount differences based on number of contests between the qualifying 10 and 12 limits. I have listed Artane2002 and Adam240610 after the table as they only have two complete years (both joined in part way through 2018).

FORECASTER ___ YEARS (with 10-12 contests) ___ Average Rank (previous table)

Active now

Con Sensus _________11 ___________________ 4.3 ___ 4.3

MrSkinner __________ 6 ____________________ 6.0 ___ 6.2
Tae laidir ___________10 ___________________ 7.8 ___ 6.4
Pauldry ____________10____________________ 7.9 ___ 8.4
JPmarn ____________ 8 ____________________ 8.3 ___ 9.3
Sunflower3 _________ 6 ____________________ 8.7 ___ 8.0
Mickger844posts ____10 ____________________ 8.8 ___ 8.9
sryanbruen _________ 5 ____________________ 9.2 ___ 9.0
bsal _______________8 ____________________10.0 __ 10.3
DOCARCH _________ 12 ___________________ 10.1 __ 10.5
kindred spirit _______12 ___________________ 10.6 __ 10.4
Rikand ____________ 9 ____________________11.6 __ 12.1
John mac __________11 ___________________ 13.4 __ 12.9
M.T. Cranium ______ 12 ___________________ 13.5 __ 13.5
waterways ________ 10 ___________________ 13.9 __ 13.5
dacogawa _________10 ___________________ 13.7 __ 14.0
dasa29 ___________ 12 ___________________15.3 __ 16.5
Joe Public _________ 11 ___________________16.4 __ 16.2
200motels _________12 ___________________17.4 __ 17.5
BLIZZARD7 ________ 3 ___________________ 20.3 __ 20.0

(eligible for table when they have 3 complete years)

Artane2002 ________ 2 ____________________ 3.0 (2, 4)
Adam240610 _______ 2 ____________________11.5 (8, 15)

Legends of the past

Jerry Seinfeld (2010-13)_4 ___________________ 5.25 (3, 3, 3, 12)
Lumi (2010-12,15-17) __6 ___________________ 6.5
nilhg (2009-13) _______ 5 ___________________ 8.0
Danno (2009-12) ______4 ___________________12.0
harps (2011-15) ______ 5 ___________________12.6
Rameire (2011-19) ____ 9 ___________________13.2
Strasser (2009-13) ____ 5 ___________________16.6
JD (2009-16) _________8 ___________________17.4

_________________________________________________

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 11-01-2021 at 03:14.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
11-01-2021, 15:43   #73
Tae laidir
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Join Date: Sep 2010
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Amazing statistics! Thanks for using your Lockdown Time so productively, MT
Tae laidir is offline  
11-01-2021, 18:48   #74
M.T. Cranium
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Posts: 11,701
That's just continuation from work I did around Jan 1-5 of 2020 as seen on the Dec 2019 contest thread. All I just did now was to update the tables, not much work.

For me the lockdown has actually made very little difference to my daily life, I am in a rather isolated community where COVID has not really had much impact, things are nominally changed to meet the health guidelines but the only real difference to my life has been the lack of opportunity to travel a couple of times during the past year, and less time visiting our family members who live at various distances, more by choice than restriction (don't really want to sit around outside in masks, it feels like some sort of alien invasion has taken place).
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