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Donegal Ken · 10-01-2021, 21:40

More than likely will see a status yellow rainfall warning issued for Tuesday for Northwestern counties.

Nqp15hhu · 11-01-2021, 14:39

The Met Office says hill snow in Northern Ireland tonight, but soundings not looking too productive.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2021, 22:15

This system will have to be watched for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's being shifted ever further south and has snow potential on the northern flank

Some evolution to come here I suspect.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-01-2021, 23:58

Nah, for me no. It's a sloppy returning airmass that we'll have at that stage. No direct cold source. Lower levels should be too modified to produce anything of note imo.

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2021, 22:58

ECM stalling and pivoting the front with following cold airmass on Weds on the latest run. UKMO has the front clearing to the S quicker. GFS does not develop the stalling front like the ECM and has it well cleared later Tues into early Weds which is the outlier here would reckon. UKMO showing very cold night Tues into Weds but this would be under clear skies for that to take place. Would have to lead with the ECM. Finely balanced atm, a few days out a long time yet to know with any certainty.

A lot of precipitation to fall between Mon and Thurs AM

Neddyusa · 16-01-2021, 23:19

Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2021, 23:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neddyusa

Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

Ah its because it always seems so far away

, this one is creeping up and intriguing but will it look anything like being shown on the current ECM run which is by far the biggest producer of snow. What will be the position of the front, will it stall as currently shown ??

nacho libre · 17-01-2021, 00:54

I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021, 07:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by nacho libre

I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

Well the ECM is looking a lot more like the GFS this morning nacho libre, GFS wasn't such an outlier after all it would seem. Big adjustment showing just a bit of wintry precipitation, less precipitation also although still quite wet over Mon and Tues and now clearing away quicker to the SE on Weds. Will see how it plays out.

sicknotexi · 17-01-2021, 08:37

All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

Reversal · 17-01-2021, 19:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by sicknotexi

All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-01-2021, 20:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reversal

The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

That would indicate high ground only, and I would agree.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021, 21:02

Yeah ECM now much slower to clear the SE than the other models, not huge cold following but pressure is low . Other models showing wintry mix now also. Looks like wet snow if it falls at this stage, mostly wet sleety mix would reckon but will see as we get closer what are the chances of some proper snow accumulations.

Precipitation accumulations up again, warnings look likely.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021, 21:06

Rough idea of rainfall accumulations.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021, 21:24

Area of LP deepens over us and merges into other areas of LP and goes on to deepen down to about 958 hPa in the North Sea on Thurs and become very windy there for a time.

15-01-2021, 22:15	#108
Kermit.de.frog Registered User Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 17,385 Adverts \| Friends	This system will have to be watched for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's being shifted ever further south and has snow potential on the northern flank Some evolution to come here I suspect. Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 15-01-2021 at 22:19.

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10-01-2021, 21:40	#106
Donegal Ken Registered User Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 129 Adverts \| Friends	More than likely will see a status yellow rainfall warning issued for Tuesday for Northwestern counties.

15-01-2021, 23:58	#109
Gaoth Laidir Registered User Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 6,088 Adverts \| Friends	Nah, for me no. It's a sloppy returning airmass that we'll have at that stage. No direct cold source. Lower levels should be too modified to produce anything of note imo.

16-01-2021, 22:58	#110
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,021 Adverts \| Friends	ECM stalling and pivoting the front with following cold airmass on Weds on the latest run. UKMO has the front clearing to the S quicker. GFS does not develop the stalling front like the ECM and has it well cleared later Tues into early Weds which is the outlier here would reckon. UKMO showing very cold night Tues into Weds but this would be under clear skies for that to take place. Would have to lead with the ECM. Finely balanced atm, a few days out a long time yet to know with any certainty. A lot of precipitation to fall between Mon and Thurs AM

16-01-2021, 23:19	#111
Neddyusa Registered User Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 561 Adverts \| Friends	Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread! There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

17-01-2021, 00:54	#113
nacho libre Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 13,647 Adverts \| Friends	I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

17-01-2021, 08:37	#115
sicknotexi Registered User Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 843 Adverts \| Friends	All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

17-01-2021, 21:02	#118
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,021 Adverts \| Friends	Yeah ECM now much slower to clear the SE than the other models, not huge cold following but pressure is low . Other models showing wintry mix now also. Looks like wet snow if it falls at this stage, mostly wet sleety mix would reckon but will see as we get closer what are the chances of some proper snow accumulations. Precipitation accumulations up again, warnings look likely.

17-01-2021, 21:06	#119
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,021 Adverts \| Friends	Rough idea of rainfall accumulations.

17-01-2021, 21:24	#120
Meteorite58 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 9,021 Adverts \| Friends	Area of LP deepens over us and merges into other areas of LP and goes on to deepen down to about 958 hPa in the North Sea on Thurs and become very windy there for a time.