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10-01-2021, 21:40   #106
Donegal Ken
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More than likely will see a status yellow rainfall warning issued for Tuesday for Northwestern counties.
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11-01-2021, 14:39   #107
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The Met Office says hill snow in Northern Ireland tonight, but soundings not looking too productive.
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15-01-2021, 22:15   #108
Kermit.de.frog
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This system will have to be watched for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's being shifted ever further south and has snow potential on the northern flank







Some evolution to come here I suspect.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 15-01-2021 at 22:19.
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15-01-2021, 23:58   #109
Gaoth Laidir
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Nah, for me no. It's a sloppy returning airmass that we'll have at that stage. No direct cold source. Lower levels should be too modified to produce anything of note imo.
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16-01-2021, 22:58   #110
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ECM stalling and pivoting the front with following cold airmass on Weds on the latest run. UKMO has the front clearing to the S quicker. GFS does not develop the stalling front like the ECM and has it well cleared later Tues into early Weds which is the outlier here would reckon. UKMO showing very cold night Tues into Weds but this would be under clear skies for that to take place. Would have to lead with the ECM. Finely balanced atm, a few days out a long time yet to know with any certainty.

A lot of precipitation to fall between Mon and Thurs AM










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16-01-2021, 23:19   #111
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Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts
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16-01-2021, 23:31   #112
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Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts
Ah its because it always seems so far away , this one is creeping up and intriguing but will it look anything like being shown on the current ECM run which is by far the biggest producer of snow. What will be the position of the front, will it stall as currently shown ??
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17-01-2021, 00:54   #113
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I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.
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17-01-2021, 07:59   #114
Meteorite58
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I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.
Well the ECM is looking a lot more like the GFS this morning nacho libre, GFS wasn't such an outlier after all it would seem. Big adjustment showing just a bit of wintry precipitation, less precipitation also although still quite wet over Mon and Tues and now clearing away quicker to the SE on Weds. Will see how it plays out.
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17-01-2021, 08:37   #115
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All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.
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17-01-2021, 19:38   #116
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All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.
The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

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17-01-2021, 20:47   #117
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The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.
That would indicate high ground only, and I would agree.
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17-01-2021, 21:02   #118
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Yeah ECM now much slower to clear the SE than the other models, not huge cold following but pressure is low . Other models showing wintry mix now also. Looks like wet snow if it falls at this stage, mostly wet sleety mix would reckon but will see as we get closer what are the chances of some proper snow accumulations.

Precipitation accumulations up again, warnings look likely.














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17-01-2021, 21:06   #119
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Rough idea of rainfall accumulations.







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17-01-2021, 21:24   #120
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Area of LP deepens over us and merges into other areas of LP and goes on to deepen down to about 958 hPa in the North Sea on Thurs and become very windy there for a time.

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