FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1

maquiladora · 28-11-2014 7:52pm

A chilly FI from the ECM this evening. Not exactly the stuff of dreams, but not mild either, and could always improve.

Day 8:
ECM1-192.GIF?28-0

Day 9:

maquiladora · 29-11-2014 5:52pm

Another day, another FI chart.

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

AnotherYear · 29-11-2014 6:58pm

Weak Northerly from the 12Z UKMO at 144Hr. GEM also showing Northerly 144-158Hr. Sorry I can't post charts. New user it forbids me from sharing url

maquiladora · 02-12-2014 1:11am

A very different kind of winter FI chart...

168-289PUK.GIF?01-18

JFKIRELAND · 02-12-2014 1:15am

Has to be kph and not knots?

maquiladora · 02-12-2014 1:18am

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Has to be kph and not knots?

Yep.

dexter647 · 02-12-2014 1:28am

Sweet...If there's no snow on the horizon bring on the storm:)

JFKIRELAND · 02-12-2014 1:37am

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep.

Sorry Maq, looked again and noticed the barbs are in knots (as standard) and the colours are kph. Still a fierce nasty one if it comes about.
JK

maquiladora · 02-12-2014 12:46pm

It's further north on the 06Z and I think that's probably a good thing!

Sustained winds +130 km/h

156-602PUK.GIF?02-6

Gusts off the charts.

156-289PUK.GIF?02-6

It's strong enough to drag down some cold air in it's wake. Cold enough to deliver a few cm's of snow in a rare cold westerly.

192-780PUK.GIF?02-6

leahyl · 02-12-2014 12:53pm

Typical yellow down by Cork :mad:

Iancar29 · 02-12-2014 1:05pm

Saw this popping up on the charts on sunday night in FI , seems to have flipped alot in the last few runs but definitely something of interest to keep an eye on!

7 days out so we all should know to take with a large pinch of salt ..

Temps and DPs would indeed be nicely fitted for some light snow showers at times , mainly in the NW and N . Nothing out of the ordinary .

Will be interesting to see if the ECM goes further south than the GFS P later on this evening.

Oneiric 3 · 02-12-2014 5:15pm

maquiladora wrote: »

A very different kind of winter FI chart...

JCX BXC · 02-12-2014 5:44pm

maquiladora wrote: »

It's further north on the 06Z and I think that's probably a good thing!

Sustained winds +130 km/h

Gusts off the charts.

It's strong enough to drag down some cold air in it's wake. Cold enough to deliver a few cm's of snow in a rare cold westerly.

Nabber · 02-12-2014 6:32pm

Not Fantasy, but good to keep in mind how we look on snow cover in Europe

2014

compared to last year
2013

2014 is a sad reflection on 2010..... Never forget

Iancar29 · 02-12-2014 8:11pm

maquiladora · 02-12-2014 8:37pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2014 8:57pm

There was once a pleasant land called Mayo ...

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2014 9:02pm

The very cold uppers make this a bit different from last winter's parade of deep lows. It would be cold enough to produce a lot of hail at low elevations and snow on hills with these very strong winds. I note that the GEM has a similar depiction and the GFS is not much different, just a half day later in its evolution.

I would also note that this combination of deep storm and colder than normal SST values in the central Atlantic combined with wandering cut-off high north of Russia makes model projections relatively unreliable past ten days. A rather fast reversal to northern blocking could be in the works here.

Longboard · 02-12-2014 9:08pm

Predicted Swell Height

c/o www.magicseaweed.com

Harps · 02-12-2014 9:21pm

Looks a lot like the storm we had in mid December 2011, one of my favourite storms of recent years. Very strong winds, frequent heavy rain, sleet and hail showers which turned to snow overnight, thunder and lightning and prolonged intensity over 24 hours.

Would love to be back in Donegal if it actually happens

Elmer Blooker · 02-12-2014 10:18pm

A rather fast reversal to northern blocking could be in the works here.

Thanks for cheering me up! All I can see at the moment is a depressing repeat of winters 11-12 and 13-14. That intense Azores is a worrying feature on all charts right out to FI and cannot be ignored - as long as its there we'll get nothing more than brief topplers. It can hang around for weeks if not months!

YouTookMyName · 02-12-2014 10:24pm

How long will that storm last next tuesday?

West coast going to get a major battering again?

Oneiric 3 · 02-12-2014 10:34pm

Encouraging signals south of Greenland on tonight's ECM Ensemble mean run chart for next Monday:

DOCARCH · 02-12-2014 10:48pm

Sometimes I think it's an awful pity that charts don't come with this button under!

E5CE3D639921416884F4536164BB1C1D-0000335757-0003700307-00134L-CF7BC169326549EDB321F73C1779974B.jpg

esposito · 02-12-2014 11:29pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Thanks for cheering me up! All I can see at the moment is a depressing repeat of winters 11-12 and 13-14. That intense Azores is a worrying feature on all charts right out to FI and cannot be ignored - as long as its there we'll get nothing more than brief topplers. It can hang around for weeks if not months!

You and your Azores High Elmer :rolleyes:

Don't worry too much about it

RED L4 0TH · 03-12-2014 12:14am

Iancar29 wrote: »

GFS parallel run more benign (for now) for the same time.

maquiladora · 03-12-2014 1:37am

Yep, nothing terribly interesting on the 18Z's. But when it comes to low pressure systems like this, FI is even more FI than usual, if that makes sense.

Longboard · 03-12-2014 2:18pm

Longboard wrote: »

Predicted Swell Height

c/o www.magicseaweed.com

24hrs on and a slight upgrade . . .

Reckless Abandonment · 03-12-2014 3:10pm

Longboard wrote: »

24hrs on and a slight upgrade . . .

Yes just a tad of an upgrade alright

icesnowfrost · 03-12-2014 3:16pm

gfs p is still trying to bring in the cold air source for around the 10th and still looking windy. ecmwf doing the same.

FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1