Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

At the moment, the deep low in question here is shown moving north towards Iceland out around 20-25 W on Thursday and Friday, on most of the models, so I think the first of the two ideas is more likely. However, for western Ireland you may catch a fair bit of the wind from this on Thursday night with the rain edging in at times. Not sure what the U.K. idea was based on, but perhaps there was some confusion with the tail end of the Wednesday frontal system which will develop further once it moves through Ireland and will in fact give some gales and heavy rains in England on Wed night and Thursday morning before moving away further east. That system will not affect Ireland as much.

Now that I've said all that, we need to keep in mind that this is a 4-5 day forecast for the deep low, but the usual error in these cases takes the lows further out to sea, I've found (like 25-30 W, and at that distance the wind impacts would be reduced).

In general what's happening on the large scale is that the persistent high over the Baltic regions this past month shows signs of retrograde motion (heading west in other words) later this week and next week. That will force this deep low to try to move north but even there it will get trapped and weakened eventually. Then the surface winds should start to back from this week's persistent S-SW more to SE and then E-NE over time as the high ridges west into Iceland. These retrograde episodes usually end with a northerly as the high either weakens or moves further west to allow the arctic jet stream to get back south to join the subtropical jet stream which meanwhile is forced well to the south by all this "wrong-way" motion.

Anyway, watch the forecast evolution on this Thursday storm out in the ocean, just in case the models do start to indicate a closer encounter with Ireland.

Monday, 4 October, 2010
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ALERT for strong winds and squally showers especially in Connacht and west Munster this afternoon, spreading further east by this evening.

TODAY will start out sunny in eastern counties with a rapid increase in higher cloud in western Ireland. By mid-day rain will be spreading into the west and southerly winds will have risen to 25-40 mph. The east will have the higher cloud by then but it will stay rather bright and not quite as windy, S 20-30 mph. By late afternoon the west will have some lashing showers and wind gusts to near 60 mph in exposed locations (40-45 mph fairly common), with some squally and perhaps thundery showers and hail. The light rain showers out ahead of this front will be into the east by late afternoon. Highs will be generally about 15-16 C.

TONIGHT the squally showers and strong winds will cross the country by about midnight, with winds veering from S to SW and gradually falling back to around 20-30 mph before dawn. The heavier showers will taper off to more isolated light showers and it may clear for intervals after midnight, with lows generally 8-10 C. The total rainfalls from today and overnight should average about 10-15 mms. A few locations could see 25 mms.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be fairly similar with moderate SW winds, frequent showers but also some sunny intervals, and temperatures of about 8-10 C early in the day to 15-16 C mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms each day will be recorded and some of the showers could become thundery with hail.

THURSDAY at present looks rather windy in the west, as gale to storm force SSE winds develop offshore towards a maximum around 15-20 W due to a deep ocean storm moving slowly north. Rain from this may appear on the outer west coast and the cloud will spread over most other parts of Ireland although it could be sunny at times in Leinster and Ulster. Winds will rise to about 30-50 mph from the SSE on the west coast, but will stay closer to 20 mph further east. Following a rather chilly morning low of 3-7 C the highs will be 15-17 C.

FRIDAY will see the rain and gusty winds making some progress east but as the storm will be looping back to the west and south, these very strong gusts should subside after a while and the winds may back somewhat from
S to SE and fall back to 20-30 mph. Rainfalls of 3-7 mms appear likely but it could become a heavier rain in some western counties for a while. Highs on Friday will be about 15-16 C.

THE WEEKEND will continue to see mild air coming up from France towards Ireland on moderate SE winds, and whatever cloud and rain is left from the slowly decaying ocean storm may break into light showers but cloud will tend to remain longer. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C with nights bringing lows of near 7 C.

NEXT WEEK the dry, rather cool air now over Scandinavia under strong high pressure will begin to drain out towards the Atlantic low, backing winds further to ESE then ENE over time into next week ... the results are likely to be a period of rather cool but not overly cold weather with more of a clearing trend allowing for frosts to develop at night in some areas. But there could be some lingering cloud and isolated showers especially in the Dublin area from the winds off the Irish Sea. This is a weather pattern that can bring some rather warm temperatures to the west coast. Eventually once the Scandinavian high moves far enough west, northerly winds can set in around mid-month and there could be a few rather chilly days with snow possibly appearing on the highest peaks in chilly showers. That would be as far off as the 15th or later.

By the way, today will probably remain fairly dry for the Ryder Cup matches, although rain or drizzle is moving north through England and could brush the Newport area too. Of course the heavier weather moving into Ireland won't get to Wales before evening.

Meanwhile, here on Sunday 3rd, we had a cloudy but reasonably tolerable day with highs of about 17 C. A weak front is moving through but rainfalls with it are trace amounts. The eastern U.S. has cooled off considerably and highs were in the 15-17 C range with northeast winds in the larger cities. Not much action on the tropical front today.

Watch for updates and other threads on today's developing weather.

Tuesday, 5 October, 2010
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TODAY ... partly cloudy and breezy (windy at times in some coastal and higher locations) with a few showers, slight chance of thunder and hail ... winds SW 20-40 mph ... highs 14-15 C ... some heavier showers by late afternoon in west and south.

TONIGHT ... the heavier showers continuing to move northeast across central and eastern Ireland ... more light showers to follow ... winds SW 15-30 mph ... lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy ... winds SW 15-30 mph ... highs 14-15 C.

THURSDAY ... cloudy west, dry at first but some rain by afternoon, becoming very windy late in the day (SSE 30-50 mph) ... partly cloudy east, slight chance of light rain by late in the day ... milder in general, after a rather chilly start (lows 3-7 C), highs reaching 17 C.

FRIDAY ... continuing quite breezy (SSE 20-40 mph) with periods of rain, some of these rather heavy at times in the west ... lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY should continue mild and will probably turn dry as the rain edges back west with the departing low, allowing for longer bright intervals and some sunshine ... winds backing to SE 15-30 mph ... lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY could become even a bit warmer as moderate east winds bring in some dry and potentially warm air especially towards the western counties where a land breeze will boost highs to 19-20 C (highs 16-17 C near the east coast). There may be some longer sunny intervals but with a slight chance of low cloud and local drizzle or fog near the east coast.

LATER NEXT WEEK it should turn a bit cooler as winds become more northeast and cooler air mixes in, lows of 4-6 C (psssibly local ground frost) and highs near 14 C.

Today (Monday 4th) was cloudy here with a bit of light rain, clearing this evening ... it was quite cool with highs only 14-15 C. The east coast of the U.S. has also turned very cool and windy (from the NE) with scattered outbreaks of light rain.

Thursday, 7 October, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy but with some brief sunny breaks ... outbreaks of light rain will be confined mostly to the south and west coast counties, but could make brief advances into other regions ... but average rainfalls may be only trace to 2 mms ... rather warm with highs near 17 C ... becoming quite windy at times in the west, with SSE winds of 30-50 mph developing, more like 20-40 mph further east.

TONIGHT ... cloudy, mild, more intervals of light rain ... winds backnig somewhat to SE 15-30 mph ... lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, just a little patchy drizzle or light rain in the morning near the south coast ... winds SE 20-40 mph ... highs 18-19 C.

SATURDAY ... showers redeveloping across the south and spreading towards the west coast giving 1-3 mms locally, but brighter intervals following ... likely staying dry in Leinster and Ulster into northern Connacht, some sunny intervals ... winds generally SE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY ... variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals, slight chance of a brief shower ... lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C (could hit 20-21 C in western counties) ... winds ESE 15-30 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... little change, partly cloudy, breezy, mild to warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C away from onshore winds in E-SE winds of about 20-25 mph.

The weather should remain dry and at least partly sunny through the week, and now it's not looking quite so much like a cooling trend will develop very quickly, although sea breezes will probably be somewhat more intrusive and so highs may fade a bit to 17-18 C. Nights will likely get a bit cooler too, in the 5-7 C range. The northerly we were speculating about seems to be pushed back well into the long range now, which may mean a non-event.

Today here (Wed 6th) was clear and rather warm at about 20 C. The east coast has been warming gradually and it has turned quite warm across most of the continent. Parts of Arizona got unusual tornadoes and hail storms with a cold front. Meanwhile, Subtropical storm Otto is nearly hurricane strength and could be re-classified as a hurricane by tomorrow. It's heading for the Azores, where winds are currently 30-40 mph from the west due to the ocean storm forming near 25 W. That is going to pump up the warmer air and gusty south winds for Ireland but if anyone's heading out into the near Atlantic be aware of force 8-10 winds out around 12-15 W later today. The maximum gusts for places like Belmullet should be around 45-50 knots.

Just to clarify, that ocean storm is most likely to stay away from Ireland, as it loops around to the west and then back towards Portugal over the next four or five days. Small amounts of rain will spread in from time to time until Saturday.

Saturday, 9 October, 2010
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By the way, I overlooked the recent new moon which happened on Thursday shortly after lunar perigee -- this is one factor in the high tides noted by some forum members in the southern coastal districts -- the onshore swells from the distant ocean storm were also a factor.

TODAY ... Extensive cloud to start, with periods of rain for parts of Kerry and southwest Cork, 3-5 mms locally ... other counties could see the odd trace of rain but should stay essentially dry, and the sun may begin to break through at times mid-day and afternoon ... quite warm with highs generally 18 to 21 C, and winds ESE 20-35 mph (it may not be that strong in more sheltered inland locations).

TONIGHT ... rain tapering off to drizzle in the southwest, otherwise partly cloudy, very mild and dry with a steady ESE wind at 20 mph ... lows 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... a mixture of cloud and sun with winds ESE 15-25 mph, quite warm, highs should range from 18 C east coast to 22 C west coast thanks to this land breeze in the west.

MONDAY to about FRIDAY ... this should be a delightful period of autumn weather for most, with somewhat cooler nights developing due to less wind and cloud, but frost only developing late in the period and rather scattered well inland. Therefore, expect your overnight lows to be falling through the range of 10 down to 5 C by mid-week and then in rural areas to 1-3 C, while urban areas will see a slide from about 12 down to 5 C. Afternoon highs will start out near 20 or 21 C (except 17 C east coast) and will only fall slightly to about 17 by the end of the week, with winds becoming much lighter but still from an easterly direction (turning a bit more northerly late in the week). Wind speeds will subside to 5-10 mph after the gusty weekend.

Some dense fog patches will also materialize in more locations as the week goes on, but these shouldn't last too long into the mornings.

Still looks rather unsettled eventually once the ridge breaks down by about next weekend.

Today (Friday 8th) here was eerily similar to Ireland with cloud, warm temperatures, and only spits of rain until this evening when a light, steady rain began. The high was close to 20 C. Expecting a bit of a deluge with strong winds on the coast already (gusts to 80 mph at our equivalent to Belmullet, the northwest tip of Vancouver Island). Where I live would be more like the equivalent of Waterford.

It was quite warm on the east coast on Friday, highs near 27 or 28 C at the major cities. Otto has chugged along to reach cat-1 hurricane status but he threatens nobody and will now cross the Sargasso Sea tossing weeds and fish all over the place, then may die out slowly near the Azores. The blocking high you have to your northeast will probably keep Otto well south and heading for northwest Africa eventually.

Monday, 11 October, 2010
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TODAY ... widespread fog or low cloud this morning, slowly lifting to sunshine by later morning or mid-day, winds E-NE 10-15 mph, highs 14 to 17 C with the warmer readings likely inland to west coast, also dependent on sunshine breaking through. A few places might suffer yesterday's fairly general fate of remaining overcast and near 14 C.

TONIGHT ... clear skies at first, then widespread low cloud, fog developing, colder than last night at 2-5 C with local ground frost well inland ... winds falling off to light and variable, then calm.

TUESDAY ... dense fog may persist for several hours before lifting, then about the same as today with mostly sunny skies developing, one or two places stuck in low cloud, highs 14-17 C. Winds E-NE 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... morning fog and local frost with lows 0-3 C, mid-day and afternoon sunshine, highs 13-16 C. Winds NE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be similar to Wednesday but may bring some local sharper frosts with lows dipping below zero in a few places; otherwise, the same forecast will apply, with winds turning very slightly to the north, and chances for local cloud increasing in Ulster as a result.

WEEKEND ... at this point, it appears that the ridge may hold to some extent, allowing a mixture of cloud and sun, but not quite as cold at night with a little more air movement returning in more of a NW backing to W flow. Eventually the ridge will break down completely and allow a stronger W-NW flow to replace it, with more cloud and eventually some showers into the north at least, but the dry spell could persist well into the next week for the south.

Meanwhile, here on Sunday (10th) we enjoyed clearing skies and it was about 15 C with cloud off to the north and east but sunshine across the region after mid-day. It remained pleasant on the east coast for the day, with some signs of a new tropical storm in the Caribbean this week, while Otto moves steadily towards the Azores (just to their north) but the future track will be southeast towards Morocco (the storm is already post-tropical in nature).

Well, let's hope we can get more of the cloud to lift today than yesterday ... today is a holiday here (Thanksgiving, it comes earlier in Canada) so it may be a good thing that there is no weather going on all week. :cool:

Thursday, 14 October, 2010
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TODAY ... partly cloudy to overcast but with some lingering fog and mist mainly in north-central counties ... light winds ... highs 12-14 C north, 15-17 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy, patchy light frost and widespread fog and mist developing, some near zero visibilities ... lows generally 3-7 C but possibly lower in a few spots.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny intervals in the south, some chance of drizzle or light rain in Ulster ... highs 13-15 C. Winds picking up slightly to NW 10 mph.

WEEKEND to about TUESDAY ... little change from the above, with slight chance of drizzle or light rain mainly in northern regions, occasionally breezy in northern counties, light winds continuing in the south. Highs generally 13 to 15 C, lows around 5 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK ... a bit colder with moderate northerly winds and showers developing, possibly wintry at times over highest terrain. Highs 11-13 C and lows 2-4 C.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed some sunshine here today and 17 C, as a ridge of high pressure has built up over the western third of North America. On the east coast, a warm spell has more or less ended and a coastal low will form later today near Ocean City, MD, moving towards Boston by Friday night or Saturday. This will bring some heavy rains to places like NYC and temperatures near 10-12 C.

Paula has peaked off the Mexican coast and is now heading for western Cuba in a weakening state, likely to drop off the tropical list fairly soon.

Saturday, 16 October, 2010
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Changes continue to be rather subtle, but the cool blocking high is about to sink out of the way of the jet stream and allow a structurally colder air mass to push south. It will take until about Monday evening for this new colder air mass to arrive, and in the meantime, the weather will be relatively mild and still on the dry side generally but with a few showers. When the colder air arrives, it will generate some chilly showers that could become wintry on higher ground. A reinforcing shot of colder air seems possible late in the week and through the following weekend. It may be about mid-week of the last week in October before somewhat milder air can return as winds become more southwesterly.

TODAY ... cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit milder, but patchy drizzle possible in parts of Ulster and inland Connacht and north Leinster. Highs around 14 or 15 C. Winds N backing to WNW during the day, 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to overcast, chilly, some ground frost possible where skies clear for more than an hour or two, but lows quite variable in the range of 3 to 7 C mostly (a few places higher near the north and west coasts, a few lower well inland).

SUNDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals and a stronger westerly breeze developing, highs 14-16 C (milder south, east). Showers developing especially northern Connacht, Ulster, spreading to Leinster and west Munster late in the day. Highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... breezy and becoming rather windy by afternoon (WNW 20-40 mph) with frequent showers and brief sunny intervals, turning a bit colder by late in the day ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... breezy or windy at times, NW 15-30 mph, cool with passing showers, possibly sleety at times on higher ground, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy with scattered showers, some of these wintry over higher terrain in the north (and highest hills further south) with lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C. Winds WNW 20-35 mph.

OUTLOOK ... unsettled and cool with frequent showers or periods of rain, slight chance of sleety precipitation at night, temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal, winds generally moderate W-NW. Then it may warm up slowly in the final few days of the month.

Meanwhile, Friday (15th) was sunny but cool here, with highs near 14 C. It felt really chilly out after sunset this evening. Snow is falling in parts of inland B.C. and in Alberta. The nor'easter type storm has reached New Brunswick now and the east coast cities of the U.S. are left in a cool westerly flow that is a few degrees below their normal levels for this time of year.

Sunday, 17 October, 2010
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Watch out for "black ice" on some roads in central and southeast Ireland this morning as temperatures have fallen a little below zero in a few rural low-lying spots. Any fog around these areas may be accompanied by these very slippery road conditions.

TODAY ... once any fog disperses, the day will be partly cloudy with some stronger westerly winds setting in around the northern counties by afternoon, but remaining rather calm elsewhere ... one or two brief showers are possible in Donegal and north coast Ulster. Highs will reach 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to overcast, a bit milder except in the far south where any clear skies could lead to another frost or local fog ... breezy elsewhere too ... lows 5-8 C north, to 2 C south away from coast and large towns.

MONDAY ... partly cloudy to overcast, brief showers, winds WSW 20-35 mph, highs 14-15 C.

TUESDAY ... frequent showers, variable cloud, cooler with a gusty WNW wind at 25-40 mph. Highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... showers, partly to mostly cloudy, cool, winds NW 15-30 mph and lows 2-5 C, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... mostly cloudy, some light rain at times in Connacht, turning slightly milder again in the south as winds back to south or southwest, but remaining about the same (11-12 C) in the far north.

The outlook period looks slightly milder again with a slow warming trend likely towards the end of the month.

Saturday (16th) was a sunny but crisp, cool day here and it feels very close to freezing outside this evening. The high was about 13 C earlier. The weather across the continent was rather bland and settled with temperatures fairly close to seasonal normals in most places. We continue to see slow development of a possible 17th named storm (which would be Richard) near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Tuesday, 19 October, 2010
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TODAY ... variable cloud with some sunny intervals, quite chilly and with some passing showers that could become squally with hail lower elevations and wintry with sleet or snow on high ground ... winds NW 20-40 mph (some higher gusts in Connacht) ... highs only 9 to 12 C (possibly 14 C south coast).

TONIGHT ... showers continuing but tending to die out after midnight, winds abating near 0300h, scattered frost developing, as lows fall to -2 to +3 C range in rural districts, although staying up around 6-7 C near west and north coasts. Astronomy note: almost full moon getting closer to Jupiter in the sky through the night.

WEDNESDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, still a few weak showers in parts of the north, chilly but struggling up to 12-14 C by mid-afternoon in a light northwest wind backing to southwest later. The following night, under a nearly full moon, quite chilly but moderating after midnight due to increased cloud cover, so that lows may be around midnight but close to frost levels.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with some brighter intervals, light rain developing in parts of southwest and Connacht, highs 12-15 C milder in southeast. Moon at full phase overnight, may not be visible in many areas though.

FRIDAY ... further outbreaks of light rain mostly northern half of the country, amounts 2-4 mms, but heavier rain by the overnight hours as winds pick up from SSW at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Higher than normal spring tides possible south and west coast.

SATURDAY ... windy at times with heavy rain in the morning, clearing later to partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds veering southerly to westerly and peak gusts near 45 mph, highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY ... calmer conditions returning but variable cloud and a few showers, highs near 12 C.

NEXT WEEK ... after possible frost early in the week, it should warm up to above normal temperatures later in the last few days of October.

Meanwhile, Monday (18th) was a cloudy but dry day here with a faint breeze and mild enough at 15 C. Not too far from average temperatures across the North American continent at this point, as you may have heard a cat-5 "super" typhoon (Megi, but known in the Philippines as Juan) has crossed the northern Philippines and is heading for a second landfall in China. The Caribbean disturbance continues to promise possible tropical storm "Richard" in a day or two.

With the prospect of some active showers, and yours truly perhaps not awake later on, would direct your attention to the active weather threads including today's reports at top of the page. Some isolated heavy falls of hail might develop given the "cold uppers" at this hour. (freezing levels low, in other words)