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NFL Stats

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Comments

  • #32
    MileHighGuy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭MileHighGuy


    Wow - I didn't realise this thread had sunk so low....but I knew it was in here somewhere.....

    Anyway, as it is the offseason still and the stories about players kneeling has consumed all before it, I've been digging around analytics sites and found a good article about deep passing from 2017.....the methodology he outlines seems sound to me, and the results are somewhat surprising.

    Warning - there are plenty of GIFS on the page if you on mobile!

    https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/

    No surprise to see Denver's ex-starter, Trevor Siemian coming in @ #24 - he really does not have a good deep ball. So glad we jettisoned him for Keenum in the offseason.


  • #33
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    MileHighGuy wrote: »
    No surprise to see Denver's ex-starter, Trevor Siemian coming in @ #24 - he really does not have a good deep ball. So glad we jettisoned him for Keenum in the offseason.

    You mean the guy who came 35th and last?


  • #34
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    You mean the guy who came 35th and last?
    Got a laugh from this, but I really do think Keenum was a very poor signing at his cost. Maybe I'll be proven wrong on that but he strikes me as a very good backup that some phenomenal play-calling and being a perfect system fit (as well as one of the best WR1/2 combos in the league) made look a lot better than he is.

    I really don't get why Denver didn't go for a QB in the draft with all the issues they have had holding them back there, and also feel Bridgewater who is ironically essentially a free agent again now, would have been a far better signing despite the injury concerns. It's also easy to forget, but he's only about 18 months older than Mitch Trubisky I remember seeing last year.

    I wasn't mad about GB trading a 4th rounder for Kizer but there has been some good feedback on him so far in training camp etc so hopefully the Browns being the Browns had an awful lot to do with it... but it's nice to have two of the top 5 guys for that on the roster!


  • #35
    MileHighGuy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭MileHighGuy


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    You mean the guy who came 35th and last?

    Yeah, we've basically got a Siemian-a-like in at QB @ $18m per. I'll give him a chance though, and the deep ball is not the be all and end all for a QB.

    Some great throws from Kizer and Brissett though, and I've always maintained Tyrod Taylor got a raw deal in Buffalo. I would have rather we pursued him tbh.


  • #36
    TOss Sweep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭TOss Sweep


    Great stats for the deep ball and some surprises on there but it really doesn't show you all you need to know about QBs. Look at Brady we all know his deep ball aint that great at times but its one stat that really hasn't stopped him. Granted there has been games where we could have done with a better deep ball from him but not the end of the world.

    Brisset at 1 surprises me a tad but not overly surprised he came out of college with a strong arm and his ability to release under pressure and deliver deep is one of his strengths. I do think though he will be just another above average to good QB. I would like to see him succeed more though as I do think he has the smarts but think he still needs developing. That showed more than a few times last season.


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  • #37
    MileHighGuy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭MileHighGuy


    Resurrecting an old thread here, this is a really interesting article from Football Outsiders from 2012, analysing the 2012 draft QBs using their Lewin formula to try and predict their careers....the first few paragraphs explain the methodology.

    Some QBs still plying their trade in the NFL, Robert Griffin, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill as well as recently retired Brock Osweiler and Andrew Luck....the kicker though, is in the last paragraph, where the formula breaks down (according to them) as it gives some scrub from Wisconsin the highest rating of all, so they determine it is an anomaly so do not include him in the final table.

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012


  • #38
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,486 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    That's hilarious and brilliant at the same time. Still the best site for intelligent analysis. I love football outsiders.


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