Last Chance Saloon Champions Weekend

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 8:29am #1

The bad run is going on too long now, so i fancy a load of horses this weekend. Making a decent profit on selections means continuing, not means a break till Cheltenham.

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 8:34am

1:50 Doncaster
Konchek has looked like he will be suited by a step back in trip and he improved last time. 3y’o have been winning everything and he is the only on in the field. I’ve actually gone for 30/1 5 places with 365, in the extra place specials market.
1 Point EW 30/1 5 places 365.

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 8:44am

3:00 Doncaster
Royal Dornoch is 3lbs better off with Threat for his run at Goodwood, when he was on the wrong side but really caught the eye. If he improves on that he’ll get close to treat.
1 Point win 25/1 generally

3:00 Doncaster

Royal Dornoch I'm going to add an additional 1 point win at 14/1 w/o fav here in a few places.

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 8:56am

3:35 Doncaster
Western Australia, is a horse I expected to get value with this year at some stage, and this looks to be that time. We’ll our fate early if he goes too fast in front but if not he can get involved in the finish here at a huge price. His 2 yo form is very good.
2 Points EW 66/1 Gen

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 9:11am

3:40 Leopardstown
Norway is the best horse in this race, we’ve missed the 10/1 but 8/1 is still value. He surly won’t go haring off in front here.
2 Points win 8/1 365

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 9:28am

4:15 Leopardstown
Anthony Van Dyke is clearly the 2nd best horse in this race if we can ignore his last poor run. He has a turn of foot at the end of his races and I think this race will suit him. We’ll go with a win and a w/o bet here.
1 Point win 12/1 Gen 2 Points w/o Magical 15/2 365/lads

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 1:39pm

1:50 Donc

After getting all my bets on I've just realized that Muthmir has huge change here. Eye catching run at Ascot a while ago.

1 Point win 16/1

longshotvalue · 14-09-2019 4:44pm

5:25 Leop

This race could setup perfectly for Just Wonderful. It should be a mad pace up front and if she gets back to form she will be closing fast.

1 Point win 25/1

longshotvalue · 15-09-2019 9:17am

2:25 Curragh
Invincible Army, traveled as well as anything on his last run and I think he got found out by the soft ground. This trip could be right up his street.
2 Points win 12/1 Various

longshotvalue · 15-09-2019 9:27am

3:35 Curragh
Iberia’s Maiden win has worked out really well. He may not have been suited by softer ground on his last run and was the subject of a gamble. My gut is he may not be too far away from his stable companions here.
1 Point ew 40/1 Gen

longshotvalue · 15-09-2019 9:32am

4:10 Curragh
Capri was trained for the Gold cup and he didn’t stay. His last run was a nice enough trial after a break and I think he has a huge chance here, given normal improvement. This is a Max bet for me
3 Points EW 16/1 VC/365

longshotvalue · 15-09-2019 9:35am

1:20 Curragh
Well go for 1 from each side here. Tresorier won his side in this last year and has had very few runs since, this surely has been the plan. Ardhoomey has plenty of runs this year that make a mark of 97 well within his grasp
1 Point EW 33/1 6 places Tresorier
1 Point EW 20/1 5 places Ardhoomey

The White Wolf · 15-09-2019 10:01am

Was at Leopardstown yesterday and have to say facilities were night and day compared to the Curragh. Of course the negative is that it attracts more drunken fcukwits young and old.

posturingpat · 15-09-2019 10:32am

Few bets today.
1.55 Loveistthehigherlaw, impressed me big-time last time out when returning from a bit of a layoff and being pretty softly handled throughout the race beating an o Brien hotpot who ran well in a group 3 yesterday, she's hard to keep sound according to the trainer and jockey but seems massively talented and I think she could cause an upset.
2.25 mab's cross, won well earlier in the season before bumping into a few smart sorts recently. This could be a bit easier for her and should be plenty of pace for her to aim at. Disappointed if she doesn't go close.
3.35 Geometrical is a stab in the dark somewhat but have a feeling he might try force the pace and could be better than his run behind Armory last time suggests. He's a huge price so it won't cost me much to see if he's as decent as I think he could be ew.

HarshOstrich · 15-09-2019 10:59am

Over a year ago caspian prince was 2nd in the sapphire stakes oversame course and distance as today with mabs cross back in 3rd.
Hes been well below form his last couple starts but showed up well for a long way only a couple months ago in this years edition of the sapphire stakes and im hoping hes fresh after a few weeks break.
Worth small e/w stake to be in the places at 66/1.
His handicap mark has come down pretty quick but connections would rather run him in this race says a lot.

posturingpat · 15-09-2019 11:06am

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Over a year ago caspian prince was 2nd in the sapphire stakes oversame course and distance as today with mabs cross back in 3rd.
Hes been well below form his last couple starts but showed up well for a long way only a couple months ago in this years edition of the sapphire stakes and im hoping hes fresh after a few weeks break.
Worth small e/w stake to be in the places at 66/1.
His handicap mark has come down pretty quick but connections would rather run him in this race says a lot.

I was trying to work out what handicap had they in mind for him as he's been ridden oddly recently. Is there any Sprint handicap coming up at somewhere like sandown or a dogtrack?

gazza1 · 15-09-2019 12:11pm

Tresorier 33/1 ew 6 places 1.20 curr

Was 5th in this race last year off 87 and today runs off 78 with jockey taking a further 5lbs off. Jockey is also 3-12 last 14 days.

GL

IAMAMORON · 15-09-2019 12:16pm

posturingpat wrote: »

I was trying to work out what handicap had they in mind for him as he's been ridden oddly recently. Is there any Sprint handicap coming up at somewhere like sandown or a dogtrack?

The next big one is the ayr gold cup, but i think that is over 6 ?

Anyway I am not sure we have seen the same Caspian Prince this year.

SonOfGoat · 15-09-2019 1:15pm

Busy day today.

1.55 Curragh, Goddess, around 15/8 won't be winning, my next best.
2.35 Fflos las, Hot Summer, around even money. Definitely a lay bet for me and my best bet of the day, can't see it winning
2.15 Bath, Mia Diva, around 11/4 and another lay bet for me. The horse should be about 9/1
2.25 Curragh, Soffia, I really like this improving horse and I think it'll go in again, backed to win 9/4-5/2'ish
3.00 Curragh, Albigna, around 15/8, backed this to win.
3.20 Bath, Orange Suit, around 15/8, I think this will bolt in, backed to win

IAMAMORON · 15-09-2019 1:38pm

Curragh

3.00 So Wonderful ew @ 16/1
4.10 Twilight Payment, Search for A Song both ew circa 12/1

Longchamp

2.50 Anapurna - circa 4/1 all duck no dinner

HarshOstrich · 15-09-2019 2:32pm

Was quite happy with caspian prince there, just lost that little bit of pace that used to get him a few lengths up early on.
He loves the curragh so would be interested to see him in a handicap there with a good claimer on board.

Andrew00 · 15-09-2019 2:59pm

Wow Star Catcher is good

Andrew00 · 15-09-2019 3:38pm

One of the best two years old we've ever seen

Blinkers_off · 15-09-2019 3:39pm

Pina ****ing turbo

TheMilkyPirate · 15-09-2019 3:42pm

By **** that is one serious animal

UrbanFret · 15-09-2019 3:49pm

Andrew00 · 15-09-2019 3:53pm

Let's just hope Godolphin don't lie to us and say he's injured and retire him to stud.

Wouldn't bank on him running next year.

SonOfGoat · 15-09-2019 4:56pm

5pm ffos las, Tigerskin, around 13/8 - 7/4. This thing is an absolute cert. If anyone made any money today I'd have a few quid on this, will win.

Blinkers_off · 15-09-2019 5:16pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

5pm ffos las, Tigerskin, around 13/8 - 7/4. This thing is an absolute cert. If anyone made any money today I'd have a few quid on this, will win.

Hahaha

BumperD · 15-09-2019 5:27pm

SonOfGoat wrote: »

5pm ffos las, Tigerskin, around 13/8 - 7/4. This thing is an absolute cert. If anyone made any money today I'd have a few quid on this, will win.

Are you a bookie

tryfix · 15-09-2019 5:53pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

No one seems to remember this fellow.

Last Chance Saloon Champions Weekend

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