Snow watch 1

super_furry wrote:

Getting pretty pesimistic now, looks like we're in for another disappointment.

No need to *yet*actually
For a start air tomorrow *should* be colder-remember that the feed is relentless and theres only so much warming the Irish sea can do befor saying-ah feck it
This is the fax chart from the UKMO on Friday.

Theres currently a trail of systems, back near the source of our air and they are all headed in this direction.
They have the capability to trap cold air enroute in the same way as the weather system that gave us snow in the East yesterday did.
Thats chart shows them eventually tracking into Ireland and its inside a reliable time frame ie 3 days away.

irish1 wrote:

Whats causing these high temps??

Its very simple this is late february not january, the Irish sea is warm and the sun is out.
Secondly our feed is coming from the right place its just getting mellowed by the time it gets here, but then we have only had it from there one day yet and thats not long enough to pull in air from siberia-allow 3 days for that.
The air over the Irish sea is not cold enough for a large amount of convection *yet* but try tomorrow and thursday and if the UKMO thinking is right friday as well.
Even temps over a large part of Eastern England are at 3 and 4 c and thats upwind of us so its little wonder that coastal parts of Ireland are at 5 or 6 c

In theory the Irish sea air flow should be down a couple of degree's tomorrow, as should the East of the UK if not then snow here is only going to be an inland and high ground event.

It simply a case of waiting untill tomorrow and then we have a clearer idea as to whether to give the fat lady a call-indications are that she's not needed though.

ntl Technical wrote:

I keep getting told that the cold air is coming the following day. However, the major forecasters are forecasting less cold air by Friday (not that the air is even particularly cold right now) so even if the cold air does get to us by tomorrow, we will be lucky to get 2 and a half day freeze instead of the original 7 - 10 day freeze promised.

Hang on a second where did I promise a 7 day freeze? 7 day cold snap maybe but not a freeze.
Where were temps yesterday up untill lunchtime in the East -very low single figures.
I have to say I wasnt expecting the athmospheric warm up that has occurred in the last 24 hrs but then its only a slight warm up.
I wouldnt call 5c mild or a typical february day... its well below normal.
It *will* be colder tomorrow-There *are* features with our name on them they *will* be interesting.
Having said that, even in the UK, the significant snowfalls are being restricted to the high ground with smallish amounts at sea level.

It's an unknown to be honest when a mild form of weather will return but models outside of reliability range ie beyond 5 days are virtually all pointing to even colder pools of air heading this way.
They may change but colder pools of air if they keep coming even if it warms up in between spells have less and progressively lesser work to do to produce the goods for you.

By the way the lates UKMO output for tomorrow suggests a max of 2c over a lot of the UK and 3 or 4 c over Eastern Ireland-those are maxima so that *is* pointing to an interesting wenesday and thursday-not to mention friday.

Billy the snow in cork is at cork airport 800ft above sea level

ntl Technical wrote:

It was a certain other chap - You know who!!

Lol he tends to get excited God love him and allows his heart to rule his forecasts

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be bitterly cold
with a Siberian easterly flow covering the country. Moderate
and at time heavy snow showers will move ashore from the
irish sea through the days giving further accumulations on
an already snowpacked ground. By this time upto 20cm's of
snow could be lying in some eastern areas.
(c) weathercheck

Temperature has dropped to about 3.5 here since the last time I looked by the way which is encouraging given that it is partly cloudy with some sun.
Strong wind blowing.