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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Gfs 18z back at it , game on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Absolutely tipping down in "waves", maybe on the wind. Bleugh :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,127 ✭✭✭James Bond Junior


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Gfs 18z back at it , game on

    I've been following the FI thread. Is there an easterly loading up/attempting to load up?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Yes but it'll last about 4 days at most as of now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Yes but it'll last about 4 days at most as of now.

    We will take what we get , especially for the start of winter , start of something to come ?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    I've been following the FI thread. Is there an easterly loading up/attempting to load up?

    Yep


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    I've been following the FI thread. Is there an easterly loading up/attempting to load up?

    Yes but not a particularly exciting one.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    20c temp gradient across the UK this morning.

    At the moment, -7c in Aviemore and +13c in Bournemouth.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Not a bad day here in fairness not to cold and dry with some brightness kind of as good as it gets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Cloudy, misty and chilly here, horrible


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭highdef


    Dull and foggy... And obviously calm. But mild, of that's any consolation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Visibility down to about 50m here and the fog seems to be getting thicker by the minute. Can barely make out the houses across the road.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Grand dry evening here no fog temp 11 degrees perfect for a walk later thankfully.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Ludicrously mild outdoors - colder inside!

    Looks like any thoughts of Scandi highs being an influence for cold calm conditions can be cancelled for now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Looks like any thoughts of Scandi highs being an influence for cold calm conditions can be cancelled for now.

    No? The Scandi High is still there for a few days, it just gets blasted away at the end. I expect that to come off but maybe a little less dramatically. We need to look at the bigger picture anyway, the polar vortex under major attack and the potential for a strat warming or even a SSW towards the last third of the month. This could set the scene for something more special as we enter January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    No? The Scandi High is still there for a few days, it just gets blasted away at the end. I expect that to come off but maybe a little less dramatically. We need to look at the bigger picture anyway, the polar vortex under major attack and the potential for a strat warming or even a SSW towards the last third of the month. This could set the scene for something more special as we enter January.

    January looks very interesting alright and as you said we could get something special and prolonged. But unfortunately there are no guarantees which is why I am always sceptical for my own good when it comes to viewing impressive FI charts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The 18Z GFS had a number of extremely unusual glitches and fragmented frames during tonight's rollout - it stalled for a long time around the 120h mark and then randomly threw in frames out of order (so for instance, 180h appeared some time after 120h, leaving the times in between still showing their 12Z charts) and as a result of this and its somewhat outlandish FI output, many over on Netweather have suggested that something screwed up the run, perhaps an unusual synoptic situation it was trying to get a handle on, but that either way the output is suspect / compromised and shouldn't be read into too closely unless tomorrow's runs follow suit. Just before anyone panics due to the horrendous +NAO being shown by the 18Z's FI charts, which essentially have Ireland and the UK under a cyclone with hurricane-esque central pressure by 216h :D:D:D

    Even now it's still fragmented and missing quite a few frames. General consensus is to discard and wait for the morning's runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Only up to +126 on netweather now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The stress seems to have gotten to the folks on Netweather, this is what they had to say about this evening's model runs :D:D:D


    jGMML1O.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    The problem with those people on Netweather is that they are always looking too far ahead and believe what they see and convince others it's happening, when in fact it's just fantasy ,both on the models and in their head.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    The posters on here seem to be a more level headed and not as emotional as the folks on netweather and take a lot of models with a bag of salt never mind a pinch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    The posters on here seem to be a more level headed and not as emotional as the folks on netweather and take a lot of models with a bag of salt never mind a pinch.

    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    Netweather delusions aside, the Strat vortex is actually weaker than average and is forecast to take some hefty hits in the coming weeks -

    ####
    Polar vortex status
    ###

    The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average
    and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean)
    0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the
    last forecast step (2018-12-21 00:00:00)

    The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 26.8 m/s
    Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -0.7 m/s 1981
    Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 52.9 m/s 2015

    u10serie.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    As pointed out above this is not correct. With MJO possibly set to go to phase 8 and the wave 2 activity in the stratosphere, the vortex is under a lot of pressure, it may not lead to a sudden stratospheric warming, but the vortex is definitely not winding up. What we are seeing is a weakened vortex- a weakened or displaced vortex is often enough for the Atlantic to act as a spolier in our region. What we need is a split vortex to increase the odds of a block in a favourable position for us


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    next weeks potential easterly looks well and truly out of the question now with a dominant jetstream keeping the Atlantic charged up for next couple of weeks.

    I too feel this Winter could go either way, a 50/50 chance of either something properly cold happening in January/February or a continuation of Atlantic muck right into spring.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.

    I wouldn't. It's the 6h day of December folks!! It can snow in Ireland up to late March. We have a LONG way to go. It takes a brave man to write off winter on day 6 of a 90 day season!!

    D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    derekon wrote: »
    I wouldn't. It's the 6h day of December folks!! It can snow in Ireland up to late March. We have a LONG way to go. It takes a brave man to write off winter on day 6 of a 90 day season!!

    D

    I'm certainly not writing off winter, but there is the possibility that the Atlantic could stick around for some time to come, as it often does. We should see some snow at some stage this winter, but I don't think it will be anything like the spectacular snowfalls we saw last winter.

    I think it will take several attempts to break down the Atlantic, I just hope it happens in January or early February rather than in March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.

    I know the Atlantic is a force to be reckoned with but surely it has to relent at some stage. And I think it will. Probably in January or February. Definitely not this month though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    esposito wrote: »
    I know the Atlantic is a force to be reckoned with but surely it has to relent at some stage. And I think it will. Probably in January or February. Definitely not this month though.

    The thing I would note is the Atlantic /jet stream was absent most of the year, people forget this it has really only started up the last 3 weeks or so,Evey Strom or depression that tracks up towards the northern regions/artic will have to have an effect on the stratosphere possibly delaying a warning event


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