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Possibly turning much colder next week
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It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.
Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.
That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
We'll see
I could not have said it better myself
In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k 
Darkman2, you would be advised to read the above quoted post as it makes sense.
Now on the other hand Darkman2, if you were posting about a Scandi high which would bring strong winds in off a very cold continent, you might be onto something. But you are not saying this, you are basically stating that we are in for more of what happened in December, which on the East Coast was nought!
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Nothing you have shown in the charts above is anywhere near cold potential. I really don't see why the thread was started as it's looking like more of the same, just without this week's above normal temperatures. Nothing of note for the start of January, just the chance of some sleety showers on high ground at times and cooler nights.
It is not "more of the same". This issue comes up time and time again. Your difficulty is you are taking the charts post 120hrs at face value. I am not. The potential is there for a much colder period of weather in contrast to last week from next Monday. It does seem likely the first half of the week will see some irritating trough disruption of the flow for those who want persistent cold weather so we will see frosty nights and after rainfall icy patches and some wintry showers. We have not seen that for some time. That's the first change.
The second is far more significant and has consistently been flagged on the operational ECM runs over the past two days and that is the pulverisation and seperation of the polar vortex at the polar latitudes. This marks a really significant change in pattern for us if this is how things pan out.
Here is the pv today
Very flat. Zonal. Almost the worst possible setup for winter. No amplification of the jet stream and no significant blocking.
Here is the pv by the end of next week split.
Complete disruption and amplification of the pattern. The result is massive ejection of cold air south on the 4 sides the vortex remains. Blocking at polar latitudes and height increases mean terrific potential at that stage.
Of course that may change. But the signs are very good. Next week may get off to a colder if somewhat boring start, I agree. But my thoughts are it is only the start of a colder period overall. All I am suggesting is watch this space.
*edit: also to say and I refer to redsunset's stratospheric temperature thread. I wonder is this the first signal of the propagation of the recent stratospheric warming event to the surface layers of the atmosphere.0 -
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In all fairness, the ECM charts are encouraging for cold, and if that's to be the set-up by 6 Jan then look out because high-energy events occur between then and 9 Jan which would have to be some form of arctic frontal waves or polar lows in that pattern. Granted the GFS is stuck on drab zonality right through FI, so we have a fork in the road about 2-3 Jan.
The ECM charts would suggest daytime temperatures of about 2-4 C by end of period, cold enough for mixed wintry showers in warmer locations and all snow on hills. But I think much colder weather is probably going to require a stronger gradient and some hint of an easterly component, that might be more like 2-3 weeks out at present. 0 -
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I'm not looking at the charts, I just posted them to illustrate. The setup shows no signs of blocking, and the one you posted for the 6th shows a progressive pattern, with the high to the west building back in again. Of course it's going to be colder than last week as last week was almost record-breaking.
Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.Which is why this should be all in the FI thread. It only refers to next week.
It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.
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Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.
We'll see
You may not be waiting too much longer;)
As for not "real" cold. -5c at 850hpa level is -5c whether it comes from Siberia or the North Atlantic. You just want the "beast from the east" because, well, you live in the east;)0 -
Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.
It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.
We'll see how this one plays out. For me we're not seeing anything worth getting excited over for the next 3 weeks, as MT has said.0 -
Sponge Bob wrote: »Amuse yourself by banning all the snow bunnies who encouraged him until the 31st of March and thereby making the forum a safer place O Mighty One!
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I could not have said it better myself In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k
D
Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.
Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot of snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
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I do agree with you on the eastern counties better placed for the real kinda snow derekon but I have to correct you on your exaggeration of -15c recorded in Dublin, yep you certainly got the snow !nacho libre wrote: »Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.
Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot doof snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
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Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot of snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
D
Temperatures dropped below -15C in Donegal and Mayo aswell last winter and there was no shortage of snow either. With Mayo recording the coldest temperature and Killygordan not far of it.
Also didn't the Greenland express come from Greenland last year :pac: (NW).0 -
I do agree with you on the eastern counties better placed for the real kinda snow derekon but I have to correct you on your exaggeration of -15c recorded in Dublin, yep you certainly got the snow !nacho libre wrote: »Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.
Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot doof snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
D
But I think this year its the west and norths to have their fair share of snow this time .0 -
nacho libre wrote: »Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.
Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot of snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
D
I think your so called beast from the east is going to abandon you and us easterners this winter unfortunately. So hopefully future winters it might come back :-)0 -
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Fair enough - though you have to admit that for proper sustained cold and powder snow, Dublin and the East Coast are best located in Ireland for proper cold. This was evidenced last year in Dublin with 2 foot of snow and temps dropping to -15oC!
That cold from the west (even in Feb) is just not the same as the "beast from the east":D:D
D
Yes. I wouldn't try to dispute that.
I was merely pointing out that reasonable snow falls can occur from a north westerly or northerly, but at best they'll last two- three days, on rare occasions we can get a week of snow out of them.
If by that stage the wind direction does not swing around to the north east, the Atlantic will usually take over soon afterwards.
Anyway it looks like i've started a west v east snow war- that wasn't my intention!0 -
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I do agree with you on the eastern counties better placed for the real kinda snow derekon but I have to correct you on your exaggeration of -15c recorded in Dublin, yep you certainly got the snow !
How dare you say I was exaggerating about the severe cold in Dublin!:D
I want a full public apology after you have read the following Irish Times article that confirms that Casement Aerodrome, DUBLIN, recorded a severely cold temperature of -15.7oC on Christmas Day 2010.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0302/1224291141232.html
Well I am waiting for the apology.......................;)
D0
This discussion has been closed.
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