TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 19-06-2015 6:56pm

Hey

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Closed 3/5s yesterday morning at 6635.00 (it reversed by 100 points at 6624.00) this was luck not skill:P,for a tidy 365 points, :pac:EEE.
Waiting for another decent rally ,to mill into it again !

It was your subconscious remembering the 6630 level, I told you on the "live trade" thread.:D

Well done!

1st dalkey dalkey · 19-06-2015 8:03pm

anyone having trouble with their TD Direct account today? Had trouble logging in at about 5pm.

For ever odd · 19-06-2015 10:16pm

Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 16th.

Key Quotes:

"IMM data reflected some surprising twists and turns in positioning in the major currencies in the latest reporting week (through June 16th). Overall positioning was reduced significantly, taking the aggregate bull bet on the USD implied by positioning in the major currencies down to USD26.2bn, from the previous week’s USD 37.2bn bull bet. This is the lowest overall exposure held by CTA and leveraged accounts since the depths of last summer. In fact, the last time we saw similarly-sized fall in positioning was around this time of the year in 2013. The proximity of summer markets, heightened uncertainty and increased volatility may all have played a part in the choice to reduce positioning this week."

"Positioning in the EUR accounted for the bulk of the change; net EUR shorts fell from –137k contracts to –89k contracts this week, a round of short-covering that equates to something close to USD5 bn in total. Recall that the IMM’s bear bet on the EUR amounted to –226k contracts at the end of March."

"Net JPY shorts were cut aggressively too, falling from –116k contracts last week to –80k this week. Net CHF longs of 10k last week were halved to +5k this week. Net GBP shorts were relatively stable at –25k this week (-28k last)."

"In the dollar bloc, the AUD saw the largest change of heart, with net shorts reduced by 10k contracts this week to –4k. Net NZD shorts were reduced slightly to –9k contracts while net CAD shorts were also reduced only modestly (-12.2k contracts from –13.7k in the prior week)."

"Speculators stuck with the MXN bear bet this week, pushing the net short out modestly to –52.5k contracts from the –51.1k total in the prior week."
20:50 GMT - FXStreet

arrowloopboy · 21-06-2015 7:14pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Hey

It was your subconscious remembering the 6630 level, I told you on the "live trade" thread.:D

Well done!

I owe you a keg of beer so:D:D:D.

For ever odd · 22-06-2015 6:34pm

chompdown wrote: »

Silver going to rocket this week in case any traders have any positions...

I went long on Thursday 4,000 oz ($15.95) with a stop at $15.50.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6915/here-we-go-again-another-silver-short-sqeeze-looms

Will close my half my position around $16.95.

Simples.

I don't trade silver but I had a look at the charts, and there is a nice formation on the weekly charts that suggests a breakout in the next 1-3 weeks, if not the formation is null.
For me it would be a drop to 1200's or a rise to 2200,s over the coming months depending on which way it breaks.

Chancer3001 · 26-06-2015 8:31pm

Thinking of buying Glanbia shares

Any thoughts?

For ever odd · 26-06-2015 9:28pm

Chancer3001 wrote: »

Thinking of buying Glanbia shares

Any thoughts?

Bad time of year to be buying shares.

Glanbia has had a serious run, maybe a correction is due.

For ever odd · 27-06-2015 7:25am

Analysts at TD Securities noted the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report Week Ending Tuesday, June 23rd.

Key Quotes:

"After a two weeks of consolidation, IMM-based speculators and investors lifted their overall bullish bet on the USD again in the June 23rd week, taking the aggregate bet on the USD against the major currencies back to USD27.9bn, according to our calculations (from USD26.2bn in the prior week’s data).

Normal service has been resumed, with the EUR accounting for the bulk of the positioning change this week. Investors lifted the net short bet on the EUR by almost exactly 10k contracts to –99k, worth a little more than USD 1 bn in the overall positioning change.

Net short JPY positions rose to –87.7k contracts (from –80k) while net long CHF positions rose modestly to +7k (from +5.3k) this week. Despite rising Greece uncertainties, there was no obviously strong demand for safe havens through Tuesday, it would appear. Net GBP shorts were trimmed modestly (-22k contracts, from –25k in the June 1th week).

In the commodity bloc, investors continued to build a large net short NZD position (-13.5k contracts—sizable for this market) and more than doubled net short AUD positions to –9k contracts. Net short CAD positions were lifted to –17.5k contracts this week, from –12.2k. Net short MXN positions were halved to –27.8k, taking risk here back to early May levels."
News provided by:

Chancer3001 · 27-06-2015 10:28am

Why is it a bad time of year to buy shares???

dasdog · 27-06-2015 1:01pm

Interesting situation building when (if) Acropolis Now ever finishes. Iran deal could take $10 off crude to amplify the situation early on but a left wing party (NDP) are leading the polls in Canada with an election close to Janet time. They have track record of distributing money at the unions bequest.

arrowloopboy · 28-06-2015 10:46pm

the sh1t is really starting to hit the fan ,i'm short eur/usd ,short ftse ,should be short dax but im not.
Sundat ftse down 3 precent ,sunday dax down 4 ,how is all this going to play out .....

Tugboats · 29-06-2015 8:01am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

the sh1t is really starting to hit the fan ,i'm short eur/usd ,short ftse ,should be short dax but im not.
Sundat ftse down 3 precent ,sunday dax down 4 ,how is all this going to play out .....

ftse and eur/usd up from sunday night open. I wouldnt be surprised to see a sea of green by this evening/tomorrow

Fizman · 29-06-2015 10:56am

Tugboats wrote: »

ftse and eur/usd up from sunday night open. I wouldnt be surprised to see a sea of green by this evening/tomorrow

Regardless of outcomes, I personally see very little major upside for the euro. I'll only have sell positions I reckon for the week that's in it. 10820 a target.

Staying away from DAX as it's untradeable right now.

Tugboats · 30-06-2015 10:03am

Fizman wrote: »

Regardless of outcomes, I personally see very little major upside for the euro. I'll only have sell positions I reckon for the week that's in it. 10820 a target.

Staying away from DAX as it's untradeable right now.

The euro is a screaming buy imo. Just look at this message board, others and social media. Ordinary people are worrying about it collapsing and looking to move money here, there and everywhere. A quick glance on Twitter over the weekend showed that "traders" were predicting chaos and boasting about pulling all nighters on sunday to make their fortune. When are people like this ever right? Usually never

arrowloopboy · 30-06-2015 8:14pm

The FTSE is still nicely falling assunder,but,its a very reliable trade nearly every summer anyways,greek mess aside.

arrowloopboy · 30-06-2015 8:17pm

Tugboats wrote: »

The euro is a screaming buy imo. Just look at this message board, others and social media. Ordinary people are worrying about it collapsing and looking to move money here, there and everywhere. A quick glance on Twitter over the weekend showed that "traders" were predicting chaos and boasting about pulling all nighters on sunday to make their fortune. When are people like this ever right? Usually never

Your probably right,alot of this sh1t is already built into the price.
Where's your money ?

Tugboats · 30-06-2015 8:25pm

Had a EUR/USD long today only a day trade. Looking at trying to get into a longer term EUR/Aud. The only position I have open for the medium term( I hope) is the Direxion sp500 bear x3 etf

arrowloopboy · 01-07-2015 9:42am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Closed 3/5s yesterday morning at 6635.00 (it reversed by 100 points at 6624.00) this was luck not skill:P,for a tidy 365 points, :pac:EEE.
Waiting for another decent rally ,to mill into it again !

Closed the other 2/5s this morning at 6540.00,i hope to sell it again if it gets up around 6700/6750.00 .

dasdog · 01-07-2015 10:41am

Big moves across the board in the last 10/15 mins on news Tsipras is going to at long last concede but nothing official yet.

Tugboats · 01-07-2015 4:25pm

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

For ever odd · 01-07-2015 7:41pm

Tugboats wrote: »

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

Traded this last year, ecb meeting was on the same day. Friday was quiet in Europe and a red day if memory serves.

Tugboats · 02-07-2015 4:28pm

Tugboats wrote: »

With the long weekend in the States a good day trade if it sets up tomorrow could be to short any NFP spikes. Cant see many wanting to hold long positions going into the weekend

If only everyday was this easy:)

stove_salesman · 02-07-2015 4:46pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

The FTSE is still nicely falling assunder,but,its a very reliable trade nearly every summer anyways,greek mess aside.

that's due to its over representation of the energy sector , bp and shell are at year lows

the german dax has no oil majors , its a better bet from an appreciation POV if oil remains on the floor

arrowloopboy · 02-07-2015 6:45pm

stove_salesman wrote: »

that's due to its over representation of the energy sector , bp and shell are at year lows

the german dax has no oil majors , its a better bet from an appreciation POV if oil remains on the floor

Its not only oil,q2 and 3 of the ftse100 are historically little better than flat ,the gains are usually in q1 and 4 ,or basically buy the ftse in October and close the trade in late spring,it works very nicely, for a simple trade.
Sell in May ....:D.

stove_salesman · 02-07-2015 7:31pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Its not only oil,q2 and 3 of the ftse100 are historically little better than flat ,the gains are usually in q1 and 4 ,or basically buy the ftse in October and close the trade in late spring,it works very nicely, for a simple trade.
Sell in May ....:D.

never heard of an entire index following such a pattern

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 7:39pm

stove_salesman wrote: »

never heard of an entire index following such a pattern

You should listen more!

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 7:41pm

Tugboats wrote: »

If only everyday was this easy:)

It is this easy everyday.

ixus · 02-07-2015 7:54pm

Weak oil, China and retail all factors in ftse. And strengthened fx.

Greece bad for European markets in very short term and long term if they and Britain exit.

China bad for all markets.

US equities are heavy, won't rally on dovish FED or figures.

Sunday night will be interesting as election results come in.

arrowloopboy · 02-07-2015 9:18pm

[QUOTE=ixus;96098561]Weak oil, China and retail all factors in ftse. And strengthened fx.

Greece bad for European markets in very short term and long term if they and Britain exit.

China bad for all markets.

US equities are heavy, won't rally on dovish FED or figures.

Sunday night will be interesting as election results come in.[/QUOTE]

And seasonality Ixus,don't forget the seasonality,very important

.

For ever odd · 02-07-2015 9:50pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

And seasonality Ixus,don't forget the seasonality,very important .

The probability of seasonality..... Good trade

Tugboats trade was a good trade based on psychology

So many different ways to play the markets.

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