Next governments affect on housing market

handlemaster · 10-02-2020 2:24pm #1

Looking like SF will be having a big say in the next government. The people have spoken like it or not. What affects on the housing market will we see ? I assume alot of landlords will be looking at selling with a full socialist manifest looming.

The Student · 10-02-2020 2:42pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Looking like SF will be having a big say in the next government. The people have spoken like it or not. What affects on the housing market will we see ? I assume alot of landlords will be looking at selling with a full socialist manifest looming.

Personally I see a tax credit for tenants. Non tax compliant landlords will leave. SF want indefinite tenancies where you can't evict for reason of selling or for own use. They want to enshrine the right to housing in the Constitution.

I would expect the tax credit and selling with tenants in situ will happen, not sure about the using property for own use. How would it be fair if the tenant had greater rights under the Constitution than the landlord or one of his family.

VonBeanie · 10-02-2020 2:43pm

I really hope SF deliver more social housing, cheaper rents, cheaper purchase prices and everything that got them the support they received. I believe more interference will only make things worse - but I hope I'm wrong.

PommieBast · 10-02-2020 3:30pm

handlemaster wrote: »

I assume alot of landlords will be looking at selling with a full socialist manifest looming.

I think any landlord who would sell up based on SF's manifesto has already made that decision long ago.

handlemaster · 10-02-2020 3:54pm

VonBeanie wrote: »

I really hope SF deliver more social housing, cheaper rents, cheaper purchase prices and everything that got them the support they received. I believe more interference will only make things worse - but I hope I'm wring.

At what cost. Will SF provide all social housing if they run with all they have been saying the day of the private landlord will be coming to a close.

The Student · 10-02-2020 4:01pm

VonBeanie wrote: »

I really hope SF deliver more social housing, cheaper rents, cheaper purchase prices and everything that got them the support they received. I believe more interference will only make things worse - but I hope I'm wring.

I expect the housing situation to get worse rather than any better. We don't have the funds to take debt on the States books.

Unless we get a change in our bail out terms how will we pay for these properties.

I fear that we have not learned the lessons of the past and if we build vast amounts of social housing we will end up the same issues we had in Tallaght, Ballymun, Limerick from the 1980's onwards those that became no go area's where people did not want to live.

beggars_bush · 10-02-2020 4:03pm

Well, there isn't going to be any large amount of houses built for 3+ years - planning, land issues, financing

we don't have the manpower to build loads of new houses

handlemaster · 10-02-2020 4:09pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Well, there isn't going to be any large amount of houses built for 3+ years - planning, land issues, financing

we don't have the manpower to build loads of new houses

You could be right. .. so a roll back on SF promises... surely not ..

The Student · 10-02-2020 4:17pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Well, there isn't going to be any large amount of houses built for 3+ years - planning, land issues, financing

we don't have the manpower to build loads of new houses

Yeah I would totally agree with you on this what you might see is the sale of valuable state land in the city used to finance the build costs of properties outside the city but still in Dublin.

I do think the biggest issue is the manpower, we just don't have it. I do recall Mary Lou being asked by Miriam O'Callaghan on one of the leaders debates how would SF build the houses they were promising and she could not answer.

I do think there will be some roll back on this part of their manifesto.

beggars_bush · 10-02-2020 4:23pm

The Student wrote: »

Yeah I would totally agree with you on this what you might see is the sale of valuable state land in the city used to finance the build costs of properties outside the city but still in Dublin.

I do think the biggest issue is the manpower, we just don't have it. I do recall Mary Lou being asked by Miriam O'Callaghan on one of the leaders debates how would SF build the houses they were promising and she could not answer.

I do think there will be some roll back on this part of their manifesto.

builders aren't going to want the work from the state, when they won't make a profit on it due to the inflation on building costs.
and you cannot get a tradesman down the country for love nor money.

I'm very sceptical about any promises for large scale building of houses. Will the quality suffer? then they'll have to reduce building standards to lower the cost.

endacl · 10-02-2020 4:27pm

I hope SF don’t cock things up so much that they’re uncockable once the electorate realise they were never suitable for government and send them back to sniping (pun intended) from the sidelines.

Ray Palmer · 10-02-2020 4:37pm

Never forget SF were very present in local councils. The councils that took payout rather than provide 10% of the housing being built. They then proceeded to not build the housing with the money they had.

Once they do get in power they will find all the reasons they can't do what they proposed due existing laws.

dubrov · 10-02-2020 4:40pm

beggars_bush wrote:

builders aren't going to want the work from the state, when they won't make a profit on it due to the inflation on building costs. and you cannot get a tradesman down the country for love nor money.

Yes they will. They will just price their profit into the jobs.

Based on other recent government schemes, the final cost will be triple whatever the original estimates were

Assetbacked · 10-02-2020 4:42pm

Whatever level of influence SF has in the next government, it is abundantly clear that the current housing situation (compounded by the last 9 years) is toxic and needs to change. The electorate have made it certain.

handlemaster · 10-02-2020 4:45pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Never forget SF were very present in local councils. The councils that took payout rather than provide 10% of the housing being built. They then proceeded to not build the housing with the money they had.

Once they do get in power they will find all the reasons they can't do what they proposed due existing laws.[/quote

Interesting.. they had alot off council power.. I think they lost it... but not 100% sure

TheBoyConor · 10-02-2020 4:46pm

Manpower is no issue. We can just do what they do in London and what we previously did in the boom. Hire in polish plumbers and romanian blocklayers who don't know one end of a brick from the other, all supervised by some midlands farmer's son who did a diploma in construction management and "sure, lash it up, it'll be grand, the painter will fix it" mentality. All fuelled by breakfast rolls.

Assetbacked · 10-02-2020 4:49pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Manpower is no issue. We can just do what they do in London and what we previously did in the boom. Hire in polish plumbers and romanian blocklayers who don't know one end of a brick from the other, all supervised by some midlands farmer's son who did a diploma in construction management and "sure, lash it up, it'll be grand, the painter will fix it" mentality. All fuelled by breakfast rolls.

Why would we do it this way?

The Student · 10-02-2020 4:50pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Manpower is no issue. We can just do what they do in London and what we previously did in the boom. Hire in polish plumbers and romanian blocklayers who don't know one end of a brick from the other, all supervised by some midlands farmer's son who did a diploma in construction management and "sure, lash it up, it'll be grand, the painter will fix it" mentality. All fuelled by breakfast rolls.

Which is what I fear will happen, sure Priory Hall was built by a friend of SF? I am sure he can help build!

TheBoyConor · 10-02-2020 4:53pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Why would we do it this way?

Because we are Ireland. That is just what would end up happening.

Ray Palmer · 10-02-2020 4:53pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Whatever level of influence SF has in the next government, it is abundantly clear that the current housing situation (compounded by the last 9 years) is toxic and needs to change. The electorate have made it certain.

No the electorate have not made it certain. Whom ever gets into power will have to do something. They can promise all they like but once reality comes along they have to deal with that. Legal challenges to some of their proposal already exist. They can't just change the employment of the civil servants. Most importantly they have to figure out how to pay for their promises.

It can all very easily stay the same or get worse if they don't know what they are doing. Their proposals make it clear SF do not understand economics or they are lying knowing they can't deliver.

Assetbacked · 10-02-2020 5:08pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

No the electorate have not made it certain. Whom ever gets into power will have to do something. They can promise all they like but once reality comes along they have to deal with that. Legal challenges to some of their proposal already exist. They can't just change the employment of the civil servants. Most importantly they have to figure out how to pay for their promises.

It can all very easily stay the same or get worse if they don't know what they are doing. Their proposals make it clear SF do not understand economics or they are lying knowing they can't deliver.

This is pure conjecture. With FG and FF and their promises, at least we have evidence that they can't improve the housing situation. FF destroyed the economy and FG have sat on their hands for the past 9 years with the housing issue in particular. The electorate have lifted SF from the third largest party to potentially the largest party in just 4 years. The wider story is the fact that FF and FG have only ever been the parties in power in some form. This is a clear message that the housing market needs strong political intervention.

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Because we are Ireland. That is just what would end up happening.

With FF that is what happened 15/20 years ago.

10-02-2020 5:22pm

At best what will be built will be whatever the current government have planned/promised.

Claw Hammer · 10-02-2020 5:30pm

The housing situation has turned around. Rents are now falling, the homeless numbers are dropping and house prices are leveling off. The next government will claim credit for the work done by the last one. The banks are still on life support and no government will be allowed to crash the housing market.

Ray Palmer · 10-02-2020 5:31pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

This is pure conjecture. With FG and FF and their promises, at least we have evidence that they can't improve the housing situation. FF destroyed the economy and FG have sat on their hands for the past 9 years with the housing issue in particular. The electorate have lifted SF from the third largest party to potentially the largest party in just 4 years. The wider story is the fact that FF and FG have only ever been the parties in power in some form. This is a clear message that the housing market needs strong political intervention.

With FF that is what happened 15/20 years ago.

Not really. They propose a rent freeze as a way to help existing tenants. This goes against the known way to get investment into the sector and is known it will reduce investment. How they propose to pay for new housing without private investment has never been answered. They effectively never had a plan and just told the people what they wanted. They are either hiding some amazing genius plan, don't have a real or know they can't deliver.

Of those 3 which do you think is likely? It is amazingly optimism to think they have a secret genius plan that they never spoke about.

A strong political intervention doesn't mean a good outcome if it isn't stable and thought out. You also ignore the will of the people. The public laughed when they were told there was an impending housing crisis and claimed FF/FG were trying to line their developer friends pockets. That was a more popular opinion than the reality of a housing crisis. People just vote in a party that made this claim. Do you think SF are going to override the public to do the right thing or stay with their populist promises knowing it is a disaster? They will want to stay in power and act like the other parties.

Assetbacked · 10-02-2020 5:47pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Not really. They propose a rent freeze as a way to help existing tenants. This goes against the known way to get investment into the sector and is known it will reduce investment. How they propose to pay for new housing without private investment has never been answered. They effectively never had a plan and just told the people what they wanted. They are either hiding some amazing genius plan, don't have a real or know they can't deliver.

Of those 3 which do you think is likely? It is amazingly optimism to think they have a secret genius plan that they never spoke about.

A strong political intervention doesn't mean a good outcome if it isn't stable and thought out. You also ignore the will of the people. The public laughed when they were told there was an impending housing crisis and claimed FF/FG were trying to line their developer friends pockets. That was a more popular opinion than the reality of a housing crisis. People just vote in a party that made this claim. Do you think SF are going to override the public to do the right thing or stay with their populist promises knowing it is a disaster? They will want to stay in power and act like the other parties.

The fiscal policy of SF involves spending more than the other parties but is apparently conservative in terms of EU fiscal rules.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sinn-fein-celebrates-with-ira-songs-but-voters-focus-on-pledges/ar-BBZOt8d

It is constantly and lazily trotted out that SF's figures don't add up but I can't find hard evidence that they don't.

Peter File · 10-02-2020 5:53pm

The Student wrote: »

Personally I see a tax credit for tenants. Non tax compliant landlords will leave. SF want indefinite tenancies where you can't evict for reason of selling or for own use. They want to enshrine the right to housing in the Constitution.

I would expect the tax credit and selling with tenants in situ will happen, not sure about the using property for own use. How would it be fair if the tenant had greater rights under the Constitution than the landlord or one of his family.

Banks don't give mortgages with tenants in situ. This is not going to change.

Ray Palmer · 10-02-2020 5:58pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The fiscal policy of SF involves spending more than the other parties but is apparently conservative in terms of EU fiscal rules.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sinn-fein-celebrates-with-ira-songs-but-voters-focus-on-pledges/ar-BBZOt8d

It is constantly and lazily trotted out that SF's figures don't add up but I can't find hard evidence that they don't.

They have not stated where they will get their money to fund their ideas. Explain how they expect money to be privately invested in the rental market when they are going to punish those that have? Do you think landlords are going to just accept it? I already sold one property and had plans to sell one more now I think I will sell them all. That is the reality they will create. Explain how that increases rental properties. They can't build property quickly enough to replace just what I am taking of the market in a few months let alone in a year

l5auim2pjnt8qx · 10-02-2020 5:58pm

The Student wrote: »

Which is what I fear will happen, sure Priory Hall was built by a friend of SF? I am sure he can help build!

How many developments were build by friends of FF which are fire pits and how many developers that who engaged in dodgy planning back in the Celtic tiger years were cushioned by Nama and are now buying their
developments back and selling them to foreign investors for hundreds of millions under FG watch,

Isn't it true that FG/FF were once a part of SF before they all split, isn't it true in Building circles that back in the boom some contractors repeatedly took building materials/ used for insulation and fire protection out of the inner walls after the foremen would do a daily check and would seal up to wall hence the insulation & fire problems which are appearing weekly in apartment blocks up and down the country.

When we are seeing Margaret Sweeney of Irish Reit receive a bonus package of €330K in 2019 and 5 other executive receiving 1.34 million it shows how much price gouging in Corporate Rentals have engaged in and how FG staged the non professional Landlords as the bad guys.These Corporations are ripe for hundreds of millions that can & should be paid back to the Irish People to fund our building projects.

Moving on with a New government, a hugh import of foreign builders/developers are needed preferably Chinese obviously with a good track record in building with a contract to take on 50% young or Irish citizens as senior or as apprenticeships which will hopefully keep building and jobs going for the next 10 years and house our homeless.These contracts should only be awarded for a certain timeframe
/period meaning if they overun 25 % is the max the government will pay out,this will do away with builders dragging out timeframes and paid on a monthly basis.

TheBoyConor · 10-02-2020 6:02pm

Doesn't matter if the construction companies are irish or chinese or from the moon. It is the locally hired irish managers that will be the ones pulling the strokes and fast ones.

Anyway, with EU procurement rules can you cannnot narrow it down to companies from a certain country, let alone specify chinese only. You are talking out of your arse.

ednwireland · 10-02-2020 6:03pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The fiscal policy of SF involves spending more than the other parties but is apparently conservative in terms of EU fiscal rules.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sinn-fein-celebrates-with-ira-songs-but-voters-focus-on-pledges/ar-BBZOt8d

It is constantly and lazily trotted out that SF's figures don't add up but I can't find hard evidence that they don't.

i think the thing is the SF figures add up in terms of thats what it will cost to iplement those polices, the real question is whether the economy can sustain their spending plans

TheBoyConor · 10-02-2020 6:06pm

Build quality is bad enough as it is without putting up chinese Tofu Dregs buildings.

Next governments affect on housing market

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