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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021
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Some interest this weekend for convective weather with a chance of some heavy localized rain and some thunderstorm potential. Slow approaching Lp well off our W feeding in frontal bands and troughs , slowly rotating upper low. Temp quite warm in Munster on Sat with a high Dp and again Sun DP quite high and temps
probably getting up into the high teens or around 20C in places. High Theta E readings, not much deep layer shear but good low level convergence a possibility.
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Increasing potential again for Thunderstorm activity on Saturday , maybe some isolated storms from early morning more so in Southern counties but increasing from the afternoon across the country when temps get going. The ECM KO index is showing a decent potential, high Theta E readings, some high Dp's showing up , as much as 17C .
Soundings showing some very heavy localized rain possible . Warm and humid and probably feeling quite muggy.
Could easily have a yellow warning with this I would think but as always hard to pin point where would get the heaviest downpours, some well defined convergence zones showing up and topography playing its part aiding lift, slow moving systems so some places could get a right drenching even leading to spot flooding whilst areas even close by could have minor rainfall.
Also potential for Sunday.
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GFS also showing some thunderstorm potential on Saturday over the south-west and into midland areas on Saturday afternoon/evening.
WRF also shows potential but this model often goes overboard with it which was the case last summer.
Arpege going for some thundery potential as well.
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Hi Res model AROME showing decent CAPE value's tomorrow. Convergence most evident in Clare / Connaught and the midlands, probably favour that area to peak in the afternoon tomorrow but anywhere could get the chance of an isolated storm tomorrow apart from the N which looks to be a low risk.
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ECM showing some small chance of a few sferics along Southern coasts later tonight and in the early morning.
Showing a lot of energy building in Munster tomorrow morning leading to some heavy rain and possible thunderstorms breaking out late morning/ early afternoon as the occluded front moves up the country. Showing a nice area of convergence around Limerick / Clare from the early afternoon , I wonder will this have a bearing on the amount of activity / heavy rain for there . Showing widespread potential as the chart below highlights .
Soundings for near Limerick at 13.00
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Jul 2021
ISSUED 07:22 UTC Sat 03 Jul 2021
ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan
Broad upper trough will extend from the North Atlantic across the UK/Ireland on Saturday, to the north of the main jet activity which will run across Iberia and the Mediterranean. The subsequent cooling aloft atop a moist boundary layer (dewpoints of 14-17C, locally higher in East Anglia) will create a widely unstable environment in many areas, with the potential for deep convection and scattered showers/thunderstorms in numerous places.
Initially in the morning a PVA lobe will lift northwards across England and Wales, creating broad ascent with showery outbreaks of rain - with the potential for embedded convection to enhance rainfall intensity. As this early rain clears, increasing insolation and surface heating will help yield as much as 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE in places with forecast profiles revealing an incremental decrease in RH with height. For the most part, winds will be fairly unidirectional with height with only a slight increase in speed - the net result is fairly weak shear (generally 10-15kts), however stronger upper-level flow over eastern England could aid in better organisation/longevity of cells here with a greater potential for marginally-severe hail and perhaps an isolated tornado, especially where vorticity stretching occurs as updrafts move over existing low-level convergence. Particular focus on Norfolk and perhaps Lincolnshire.
In general, the slow storm motion coupled with any backbuilding could result in local flash flooding - this appears greatest over Devon and Somerset where a persistent convergence zone aligned near-parallel with the steering flow could result in multiple cells running over similar areas, giving locally very high rainfall totals. As a result a SVR has been introduced for the heightened threat of flash flooding, especially given the terrain and catchment response in the area.
A gradual weakening trend is likely through the mid-late evening, however PVA lifting north across northern England and southern Scotland may continue to aid development here for a time into the night hours. Otherwise, the main focus during the overnight period turns once again to the English Channel (and eventually southern England) as another PVA lobe encourages broad lift and areas of showery rain to develop - and again there will be the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes given weak/skinny CAPE.0 -
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Plenty of convective potential tomorrow with heavy rain again and perhaps more widespread in the Eastern half of the country especially N Leinster, Northern counties, N midlands. Thunderstorm potential there with temps getting up to the high teens or touching 20C, high Dp's up to 15 or 16C . Pronounced areas of convergence and some more Deep layer shear than today should help to fire up some more electrical activity I would think. Heavy showers getting going from early.
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AROME is interesting for the E tomorrow. Showing an area of convergence and some decent CAPE values. Will there be a shot of thunderstorm activity ?
Showing getting up to around 19 or 20C with Dp's as high as 16 or 17C
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