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26-02-2020, 19:13   #16
mylesforsmiles
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Lots of spring marathons could be cancelled I'd say.

London, Manchester, Paris, Rome, Rotterdam, Vienna, Hamburg, Barcelona?

Signed up for Manchester myself.

Limerick an alternative option.
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26-02-2020, 19:36   #17
racersedge
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Signed up with a running mate to do Prague on the May bank holiday weekend. We were only joking last night if we would actually get there! A little bit more sobering when you do look at other events closer to home getting cancelled.
Would be the thoughts of going through a training cycle with no race that would be more maddening at this very moment to be honest, followed by an potential loss of travel and entry stuff!
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26-02-2020, 20:53   #18
average_runner
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The cancellation (or is it just a postponement?) of the Ireland-Italy game does set off some alarm bells.

But the Irish Govt does have form in this regard. Back in 2003 various countries' Special Olympics teams were told that they weren't welcome on account of the SARS panic of that time.

In June 2003 it was eventually conveyed to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that they'd be tolerated. Have a look at the official WHO figures at the time the decision was made:

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_06/en/

Going by today's panicked reaction the Irish Govt would have banned the Canadians and Americans.

Granted, world travel has increased massively over the intervening years but, from a European perspective, back in 2003 we had Schengen and we had Ryanair flights etc. (Then again the Ryanair trick of calling something Frankfurt Hahn etc is almost like flying people into areas so remote from their intended destinations, 125+ km in some cases, that it's a bit like a quarantine regime).

For race organisers they're in a completely different position than St Patrick's Day parades/gatherings etc. Race organisers know or ought to know the nationality of a large percentage of their participants. It makes any so-called risk assessment much easier, even before engaging with the health authorities.

The Irish boxing delegation are returning from Italy today. It'd appear that we'll take the medieval-plague-is-upon-us approach at national level but whether it generates any new-found political interest in funding the health service is another matter.

At the end of the day I fear that a number of perfectly safe events in Irelan will be cancelled out of the symbolism of being seen to 'do something', e.g. wear a hi-vis vest and stare mournfully at Shannon flooding whilst nodding seriously every so often etc.

However, I strongly doubt that other countries will hit the 'national panic' button. Sure, it'd play very well as a dog whistle in some countries to be 'keeping out the foreign threat' but braver politicians, better-equipped health systems, and the likelihood of a temperature rise (with consequent drop in viral survival rates outside a host) should all contribute to the situation becoming a properly-assessible risk over the coming weeks.
Ireland hasn't hit the panic button. Loads of Serie A games were cancelled last week and more this week. Tokyo marathon was cancelled also.
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26-02-2020, 21:04   #19
Itziger
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Cork will be ok, right? Right?
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26-02-2020, 21:53   #20
glacial_pace71
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Ireland hasn't hit the panic button. Loads of Serie A games were cancelled last week and more this week. Tokyo marathon was cancelled also.
Both those countries have actual cases. Here it's a case of various Govt Ministers (e.g. Health, Sport etc) elbowing one another out of the way to stand beside a traffic light and roar 'turn red, I command you to turn red' and sure enough the light changing as it was expected to. We're in the phase of 'managing the message' and being seen to do something.

If they force the IRFU to cancel events now then I can't see why people would hope that the Limerick marathon would survive in May, as we're into a different version of the Irish tradition of what-about-ery.

For events outside Ireland it'll be a nervous few weeks ahead to see what'll be cancelled but if it's like the SARS or Asian Bird Flu panics then we've at least another two months of drama ahead.
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26-02-2020, 22:21   #21
pc11
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Due to do Manchester myself.

Right now there's no reason for cancellations. But this could change really really quickly. Look at how the numbers in Italy exploded. A week ago there was nothing there, now there are 300 cases. There could be 3000 by this weekend.

Even then, I don't really see a need to cancel Irish parkruns unless the whole country goes in to total lockdown like in Wuhan. 100-200 people in one place for 45 minutes without major travel is really not that worrying. That said, I can see logic disappearing if things go south rapidly.

20,000 in Manchester having travelled from god knows where and filling all the hotels in town is just totally different.

Once a few things get cancelled it will snowball rapidly as nobody will be seen to be taking a risk. And insurance companies may get involved.

I can't see St Patricks Day parade in Dublin happening if we have any kind of outbreak here, for example.

Finally, contrary to the bullsht I see on Facebook, this is NOT like the flu. The mortality of coronavirus is 20-30 times higher than flu, there's a vaccine for flu, and then there's the uncertainty surrounding something so new and unknown.

WASH YOUR BLOODY HANDS EVERYONE. IF YOU FEEL SICK STAY HOME. DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO YOUR GP OR TO HOSPITAL.
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26-02-2020, 22:21   #22
Murph_D
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Both those countries have actual cases. ...
I think you're missing something.
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26-02-2020, 22:27   #23
ger664
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Down for Madrid end of April Filghts paid accomdation due in 3 weeks. Unless theree is a travel ban in place I will travel even if marathon bites the dust.

YOLO
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27-02-2020, 09:39   #24
The Black Oil
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Can't see them being bothered with Parkrun, nobody travelling a distance to take park.
Local people in a local event.
We get groups of 30 or so flying over from the UK to visit Malahide.
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27-02-2020, 12:29   #25
Kander
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I wonder is Manchester would get cancelled and refunded. My training is going crap for for it so I wouldn't be too off put
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29-02-2020, 18:16   #26
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Paris half cancelled - 1 days notice!.
All events of 5000 or more cancelled in France.
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29-02-2020, 20:30   #27
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Paris half cancelled - 1 days notice!.
All events of 5000 or more cancelled in France.
Saw that! I think we’ll see more of that over the next while. 5 weeks to Manchester tomorrow, it’s gonna be touch and go looking at the infection timeline from Asia.
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29-02-2020, 23:14   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pc11 View Post
Finally, contrary to the bullsht I see on Facebook, this is NOT like the flu. The mortality of coronavirus is 20-30 times higher than flu, there's a vaccine for flu, and then there's the uncertainty surrounding something so new and unknown.

WASH YOUR BLOODY HANDS EVERYONE. IF YOU FEEL SICK STAY HOME. DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO YOUR GP OR TO HOSPITAL.
All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.
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29-02-2020, 23:29   #29
rom
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Note to anyone here. Your travel insurance does not cover you for a marathon. If you happened to be going to London on the same weekend as the marathon and need to cancel then that is a totally different story.
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29-02-2020, 23:31   #30
rom
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All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981
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