I closed up our BJJ classes on the 9th. I didn't want to and the gym owners were happy to keep it running, but I made the decision that there is too much risk.
I am not one for paranoia or donning a tin foil cap, but there was too much about this from the beginning that didn't make sense and had me worried. Quite frankly, I didn't believe what was being reported from China... namely a country not known for its human rights would lock down nearly 200 million people for under 3,000 deaths at the time. Considering China were, prior to the outbreak, heading into their first recession in 20 odd years, this completely went in the face of rationality. I had a feeling that it was far worse.
I am happy that I made that decision becuase this virus is deadly and passed very easily.The mortality rate is now at 8%, it was just under 6% when I closed up, and this number has been rising every day, and will continue to rise as the hospitals get overburdened (source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
. Incidentally, this figure includes China, and I don't for a second believe the figures they are quoting.
What people fail to realise however is that it will also significantly increase the deaths from everyday illnesses and accidents due to the hospitals being overstretched - this will not be reflected in the figures of deaths from the virus. Accidents and illnesses that would normally be curable, will now be fatal... staph infections, car crashes, heart attacks, stroke, cancer... things we don't currently fear, or feel that can be cured, will be fatal.
For context, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic had a mortality rate of 0.02%, the Spanish flu of 1918 had a mortality rate of 11%. Trajectories estimate this will have a mortality rate of around 10% as it was 3% two weeks ago and 6% last week. There are over 7% of current patients in serious or critical condition.
If we work with an infection rate of the 2009 H1N1 which was around 21% and an 8% mortality rate, that's around 126 million deaths globally.
I want to train and I want to train my students, but I felt there was too much risk of infection from students who may be infected, but don't know it yet. They could spread it to the other students who then spread it to their friends, relatives etc - the cycle needs to be broken and this means action. If it's not a necessity, then don't do it.
People seem to think this is scaremongering, propaganda or overkill but governments are not closing down cities and entire countries for nothing. They understand that this will have a massive knock-on effect on economies and will probably push us into another global recession. This is the last thing they want to do but they have no choice. The alternative is far worse.
To summarise, I read this recently and it puts it in a very clear perspective: If there were 100 skittles on a table and 8 of them were potentially deadly, would you eat the skittles? Like f*** you would.