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09-01-2018, 08:47   #61
Bob24
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Are Dublin prices tame in comparison to Limerick. I always thought Limerick property market trailed Dublin by 2 to 3 years and is only currently playing catch up unfortunately
Dublin prices never rose 40%+ in a year- akin to what is on display in some areas of Limerick......... I've never seen the likes of it.
I’m not familiar with the the Limerick marker so this might be a dumb question, but could the sharer rise now be explained by having experienced sharper drops when times were bad?

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09-01-2018, 09:09   #62
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I’m not familiar with the the Limerick marker so this might be a dumb question, but could the sharer tide now be explained by having experienced sharper drops when times were bad?
Yes- there were sharper drops- but more akin to 10-15% sharper drops- and current prices have not 'recovered' to the same extent as Dublin (perhaps 15-16% off, versus 10% off)- however- using the previous high-tide mark as some sort of a yardstick- is fraught with difficulties- and there is no economic basis in suggesting it is anything other than psychological in nature.

There is run-away demand in certain areas- which is not being recognised by local authorities- and which the Department is adding petrol to the fire- with its unsuitable rules (on apartment size, floor areas, etc etc).

Currently- there is a furore over 'homelessness' in Ireland- and it is only right to draw attention to the homeless. However- on several measurements- our levels of homelessness have actually fallen in recent years- the only reason we are seeing headline rates rising in the media- is strange ways of enumerating homelessness- and of course the 14 agencies and NGOs who receive government funding to deal with homelessness- who would effectively be turkeys voting for Christmas- if they didn't try to blow the issue out of all proportion.

The bigger issue- which is getting no media airtime whatsoever- is the hundreds of thousands of people- a majority of whom are owner occupiers, living in patently unsuitable accommodation- who have no manner or means of moving to accommodation more suitable to their needs. By this- I mean the accommodation fails Local Authority Housing guidelines (as laid out by the Minister) on numbers of bedrooms and other criteria. Yet- as the people are privately accommodated, often owning the property- they are air-brushed out of the national consciousness.

We are making strides towards satisfying the obvious deficits in our housing stocks which have arisen over the past decade. We are, however, once again building housing estates in inappropriate locations- and shoebox apartments- and selling them, quite deliberately, as 'starter homes' to first-time-buyers- who are being lined up with their taxback offers- like lemmings- to take these properties- that is- we are creating an artificial market for unsuitable properties- in the knowledge that once people take the bait- they can be airbrushed out of the picture.

None of this makes for comfortable stories in the media- and thus- doesn't get reported- however, its simply a world of hurt that we are storing up and booting down the road. What happens when all these first time buyers have a kid or two- and find that their 'starter home' is unsalable- and they are stuck there for life in misery?
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09-01-2018, 10:21   #63
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I don't think that anyone is denying that prices are going to rise- however, I'd argue that the 'strongly' part of the equation- is very location dependent. Most of Dublin is simply unaffordable for most- incomes have been creeping up at a far lower rate than house (and other) prices. According to the CSO average income in 2017 increased by 1.8% and IBEC are on the record predicting wage increases of 1.9% for 2018. This 'constraint' is concurrently being reported as a good thing- and simultaneously- heralded as proof that we have learnt a lesson from the bust 11 years ago- and are paying down debt, rather than spending (which is supported by Department of Finance income tax figures- which are at odds with below profile returns for alcohol, tobacco and other headings).

Dublin price rises- are tame in comparison to the rest of the country (and especially tame in comparison to the likes of Limerick- which just seems to be nuts- though Cork and Galway appear to be moderating, not at the same rate as Dublin- but heading in that direction.

Supply is increasing- and affordability- is rapidly becoming an issue- quite when the top of the market is called- is more a question of a time frame than a suggestion of a unicorn sighting- and is rapidly being viewed in this manner.

As for some people having gotten used to high prices- and a particular lifestyle- honestly- its vastly overstated- the bigger beneficiary of all of this- are multinational companies who bought Irish property during the downturn and aren't paying tax on their rental income- and the Revenue Commissioners themselves- who levy up to 54% tax on some small scale Irish landlords. This salient fact is very seldom mentioned in the media.

Irish prices- are nuts- and are costing us jobs- both Brexit related jobs and other multinational posts. Irish taxes- are making it impossible to remunerate Irish employees. Irish governments- have made working incredibly expensive- and seem to love having a high cost economy- which is destroying the lives of those who live here- and vastly costly in terms of the HSE and social welfare costs. Some deals- such as the incredibly expensive agreements with pharmaceutical companies- are hammering those who are doing their utmost just to get by.

There are lots of things wrong in the Irish economy- of which our house prices and rent levels- are just two items on the list. They are now (with the exception of some bizarre outliers- such as Limerick) moderating- we *need* to moderate the other costs in our economy before they sink us (keeping in mind our demographic time bomb is going to hit us in the next decade- about 10 years later than some other EU countries- but its there nonetheless).
Thanks for your detailed response, you certainly have great insight into what’s going on.
I have to admit, I’ve got skin in the game here, as I’m looking to buy so perhaps naturally, I’m not looking for strong price growth. However, there’s been comment on this thread from posters, asking for more price rises so as to get them out of negative equity and I can absolutely understand their frustration, must feel like a noose around their necks.
With that said, the bullish statements from all and sundry regarding projected GDP growth this year has me puzzled. We WILL be malignly affected by Brexit in some respects, the prospect of interest rate rises are very real and imminent and possibly most important in the short term, there must be a ‘tipping point’ with people where they simply won’t pay the prices being asked.

We have around a really big lump in savings but we’re both 40 this year and have two kids. Both my husband and I are determined not to over stretch ourselves with a big mortgage and reckon a lot of what we are seeing is not rational, but this panic will subside. There are a good number of houses coming online this year, we’ll simply leave Dublin and go to
Kildare or Wicklow.
When I see beds from 560 in walkinstown, I just think it’s gone a bit too mad!
I’ve no idea what’s happening in limerick, just had a look on daft there, there are 3 beds for around 250 in castletroy, enniskerry Road, corbally and Raheen. Its not near Galway, or even cork price wise I’d of thought ? Lack of stock maybe pushing prices like we saw in Dublin
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09-01-2018, 17:20   #64
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I think one of the biggest factors which have kept house prices low in limerick has been crime, widespread social problems and negative media coverage, even back in the celtic tiger era you could buy a decent house there 40-50% cheaper than other cities in Ireland. Thankfully things are changing and Limerick is now becoming the wonderful place it always had the potential to be, the Gardai and local authorities have done a great job in keeping a lid on many of the issues that have plagued Limerick over the years and the benefits are now being seen in property and other sectors
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10-01-2018, 07:26   #65
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Thanks for your detailed response, you certainly have great insight into what’s going on.
I have to admit, I’ve got skin in the game here, as I’m looking to buy so perhaps naturally, I’m not looking for strong price growth. However, there’s been comment on this thread from posters, asking for more price rises so as to get them out of negative equity and I can absolutely understand their frustration, must feel like a noose around their necks.
With that said, the bullish statements from all and sundry regarding projected GDP growth this year has me puzzled. We WILL be malignly affected by Brexit in some respects, the prospect of interest rate rises are very real and imminent and possibly most important in the short term, there must be a ‘tipping point’ with people where they simply won’t pay the prices being asked.

We have around a really big lump in savings but we’re both 40 this year and have two kids. Both my husband and I are determined not to over stretch ourselves with a big mortgage and reckon a lot of what we are seeing is not rational, but this panic will subside. There are a good number of houses coming online this year, we’ll simply leave Dublin and go to
Kildare or Wicklow.
When I see beds from 560 in walkinstown, I just think it’s gone a bit too mad!
I’ve no idea what’s happening in limerick, just had a look on daft there, there are 3 beds for around 250 in castletroy, enniskerry Road, corbally and Raheen. Its not near Galway, or even cork price wise I’d of thought ? Lack of stock maybe pushing prices like we saw in Dublin
In the same boat here.
We found Dublin prices to be rising very fast not moderately at all.
Wicklow and Kildare rising fast too. Probably too expensive at this stage.
The best "value" I think is in North Dublin. Like swords, and the rural villages north and west around it. You have to drive to the bus or the train, only a few minutes, but you get much better house for the money. It may not suit people without cars but the price difference is huge.
We have bid on a house in such an area, and even if we don't get it Ithink we are going to concentrate our search around those areas. Less competition. No non car owners looking. People who have never set foot in a rural area are afraid of them even though they are only less than 5 minutes from the big towns and 20 mins from the city.
I think it might be the last value to be had in the country
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10-01-2018, 08:41   #66
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I think it might be the last value to be had in the country
18 months ago you could come in a bit closer than Swords but Raheny et al have gone nuts in the last year or so. Raheny* is 10% off peak prices (IIRC). I'm going to be very interested to see what it does. Will it go over peak this year probably due to the changing demographics/reputation of the area or did it just lag behind in the price increases.

Certainly been a knock on effect in Kilbarrack

*And before anyone starts there are middle class and working class areas of Raheny none of them 'bad' these days.
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10-01-2018, 08:55   #67
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18 months ago you could come in a bit closer than Swords but Raheny et al have gone nuts in the last year or so. Raheny* is 10% off peak prices (IIRC). I'm going to be very interested to see what it does. Will it go over peak this year probably due to the changing demographics/reputation of the area or did it just lag behind in the price increases.

Certainly been a knock on effect in Kilbarrack

*And before anyone starts there are middle class and working class areas of Raheny none of them 'bad' these days.

It's like a ripple moving out. And you don't know it's past you until you are either in the market where it has just passed or until you read reports about it anyear later.
I reckon the ripple is exactly at swords, rush, lusk now and moving still.
I predict big rises for those places are happening now and will be reflected in reports after about mid year.
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10-01-2018, 09:13   #68
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I figured it was best to ask here rather than starting a new thread..

Something I don't get about the 3.5x salary rule, is how much disposable income you're left with after buying.

What do people do with it?

My numbers could be off here, but;

If for example you're earning 60k, take home is around 40k (€3333/month)

If you get a 25 year mortgage on a 250k house with a 50k deposit, mortgage will be around €1300/month.

That leaves you with 2k/month to cover living expenses, etc.

Assuming you don't have a bunch of kids and/or a partner who isn't working, that's quite a lot of additional money that could have been going towards a better house/location.

The 3.5x rule seems so overly restrictive for that reason - I would much rather have more going out towards the mortgage if it didn't mean a 1-2 hour commute, or living in a tiny apartment with loads of spare cash and nothing to do with it.

Am I way off here, or could someone explain the sense in it to me?

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10-01-2018, 09:13   #69
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I know I ask this every thread but I've just had a 'guestimate' on my apartment at 215K, Dublin 8 over looking the Liffey next to Guinesses. I've an outstanding mortgage of 179K. Dump or wait? A 10% increase is obviously 21.5K putting me at 236Kish much closer to breaking even and another years rent in. The downside is the Simon community are putting in a huge development (there already is a smaller unit). I suppose the Children's hospital is going in down the road too though.

Thoughts? And TIA!
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10-01-2018, 09:16   #70
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Am I way off here, or could someone explain the sense in it to me?

Thanks
All the below aside this is about protecting the banks rather than the punter but;

Interest rates are at an all time low stress test the DI at 5 or 6%
You need to save for a rainy day, banks take that into account
Car payment consummate with the Jones'
Kids

Personally I find the wife and I live very frugally*, but many don't.

*apart form food nom nomnom
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10-01-2018, 09:28   #71
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All the below aside this is about protecting the banks rather than the punter but;

Interest rates are at an all time low stress test the DI at 5 or 6%
You need to save for a rainy day, banks take that into account
Car payment consummate with the Jones'
Kids

Personally I find the wife and I live very frugally*, but many don't.

*apart form food nom nomnom
Sorry, DI? (I'm new to all this as you can probably tell)

Do people who find themselves with a spare 1-2k a month start looking at upsizing or relocating after a certain amount of time? Is that the done thing, as it were?

And if your partner is earning that's another massive chunk in the bank every month too.
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10-01-2018, 09:41   #72
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Sorry, DI? (I'm new to all this as you can probably tell)

Do people who find themselves with a spare 1-2k a month start looking at upsizing or relocating after a certain amount of time? Is that the done thing, as it were?

And if your partner is earning that's another massive chunk in the bank every month too.
DI = Disposable Income

Partner, ideally married partners, income would be taken into account. Even unmarried there are significant issues with the family home if you separate. So you'd be looking at a combined income anyway.

One might very well think about moving again my parents did 3 times my in laws 5 times. Alternatively you might pay down the mortgage faster or pay into pensions. 2K a month isn't a huge amount of money frankly.
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10-01-2018, 09:45   #73
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I know I ask this every thread but I've just had a 'guestimate' on my apartment at 215K, Dublin 8 over looking the Liffey next to Guinesses. I've an outstanding mortgage of 179K. Dump or wait? A 10% increase is obviously 21.5K putting me at 236Kish much closer to breaking even and another years rent in. The downside is the Simon community are putting in a huge development (there already is a smaller unit). I suppose the Children's hospital is going in down the road too though.

Thoughts? And TIA!
Flip is, simply because I wouldn't want to bother being a landlord. In the current climate I don't think tough that the Simon community development would matter too much, it's a pretty desirable location after all, very central.
If the apartment is unoccupied, you could place it on the market and see what you get for it.

But I guess it really depends on if you mind holding onto it much longer. Personally in your case I'd just sell and close this chapter of the youth sin buying a 1bed in the boom

Will Samuel finally sell his 1bed in 2018?
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10-01-2018, 09:47   #74
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Am I way off here, or could someone explain the sense in it to me?
You meet a partner and get together. Two kids pop out. Then the market crashs and your 250k house is now worth 150k and you barely touched the capital in 5 years. Your partner loses their job, you loose yours and one side of the couple end up working a 3 hour commute away at a lower wage to make ends meet.

In other words, circumstances can vastly change in a very short space of time. That's what happened a decade ago and the first thing that got dropped was the mortgage payments for a lot of people.

You should be taking that extra money and saving/investing it. You should have at the minimum 6 months full living expenses in liquid cash/assets. And then when you have a substantial sum in excess of that, using that and the equity in your house to "move" up to a better home/location if required. Easy access to credit is a trap which everybody should avoid where possible.
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10-01-2018, 09:49   #75
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Personally in your case I'd just sell and close this chapter of the youth sin buying a 1bed in the boom

Will Samuel finally sell his 1bed in 2018?
Both of these gave me a smile
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