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02-01-2018, 10:53   #16
davidmarsh
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Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.
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02-01-2018, 10:56   #17
Topgear on Dave
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"According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."
Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.
Interesting if things have stabilised. I see three identical ex-rental semidetached houses for sale in my estate in the last 3 months.

I wonder if the landlords think prices have topped and its a good time to get out?
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02-01-2018, 11:00   #18
Topgear on Dave
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Every news bulliten now seems to reference a daft report telling us all about the shortage of houses, pending increases in house prices, etc.
Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.

"If you dont buy now youll never be able to afford a house"...... Iv friends that got absolutely scorched by shyster estate agents, builders and property pushing media
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02-01-2018, 11:35   #19
Graham
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"According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."

Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.
According to the chief economist at Davy:

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Asking prices have fallen in the final quarter of each of the last five years before bouncing back in the spring and we see that pattern continuing in 2018
Personally I don't expect prices to drop in 2018. Demand is still significantly outstripping supply and mortgage approvals are increasing.

I do expect increases at the upper middle end of the market to be tempered slightly as central bank ceilings are hit.
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02-01-2018, 11:42   #20
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Hmmmm Id be cynical of the news and watch what else is happening in the world. I remember 10 years ago being told all the same things before the bust.

I'd be a bit of a fan of Ronan Lyons, I think he's more concerned about the lack of supply and the overall homeless situation, he has been warning about it for nearly ten years now, along with people such as Tom Lyons etc.
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02-01-2018, 11:43   #21
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I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.
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02-01-2018, 14:52   #22
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Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.
Thats how they do it, they fill their boots in Q1 and wait for the rest of the year for it to balance out.
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02-01-2018, 17:03   #23
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I wouldn't say demand has fallen or there is adequate supply just yet, I do think we are starting to hit a ceiling on people's affordability though.

There hasn't been a q4 report on rental prices either, I haven't had reason check on it thankfully but I'm guessing that rental prices wont have grown as much as the previous quarters either, which again I'd attribute to affordability rather than availability.

Will be interesting to see what happens now that the quota of exemptions that banks can give have been refilled - I know of a few banks who had already handed out all their available exemptions by the middle of last year.
I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.
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03-01-2018, 06:01   #24
Samuel T. Cogley
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One thing danced around in that report but it seems there reading between the lines is exemptions being given out at the start of the year. We'll see the same again this year with the first half showing growth in prices and then the latter half of 2018 doing the same as this year. It's symptomatic of affordability being non-existent within the CB rules; which should not be changed. Prediction for 2018 8.8% growth.

Incidentally we've seen 63K* go on to our modest house (bought for around 275K in early 2015), so I think some of the 'less desirable' areas near to 'desirable' areas are beginning to see some pressure.

*Valued for the sake of changing mortgage to a fixed rate. Edit: And lower LTV - worth checking out if you've had your mortgage more than 24 months or so.

Last edited by Samuel T. Cogley; 03-01-2018 at 06:12.
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03-01-2018, 06:05   #25
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Originally Posted by murphaph View Post
I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.
Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.
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03-01-2018, 06:43   #26
handlemaster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murphaph View Post
I've a rental becoming available in a few weeks so I signed up to a couple of the Facebook groups for Househunters. It's pretty grim. My property is in Clonsilla. On daft/rent there are literally only 3 properties of any type for rent in Clonsilla. On Facebook it's a different level... people offering a bunk in a room of 2 bunk beds in a 2 bed flat (so 8 people in total living in a 2 bed flat with one bathroom).

When you see this you realise that untasteful as it may sound, there's a lot of scope for rents to go even higher as the poor tenants can always shove another couple of bunk beds in the sitting room or whatever.

It's totally different to buyers who won't share like this.
Back in 2013 or so I was in London looking at the rents and thinking, that's not too bad then I realised it was a week. I'm seeing the same shenanigans on DAFT now, €845 per week for one particular 1 beds.

Revenue will be loving that. More money for them
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03-01-2018, 08:09   #27
Samuel T. Cogley
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Revenue will be loving that. More money for them
That's the crux of it in my opinion and why they're not interested in fixing it.
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03-01-2018, 21:19   #28
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We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........
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05-01-2018, 08:25   #29
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We have been and still are looking for a while now and all I can see is that asking prices are far lower than the bids on the properties, in Dublin anyway.

You see what you think is a good asking price. Then find out that there are bids of 20% above it already. It's the same story every time.

And even some that have been on the market for many months are holding out for even higher bids. People are happy to leave them on the market and wait til they get the bid they want it would seem, even while sitting on bids of way over asking as it is.
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05-01-2018, 08:55   #30
koheim
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We definitely have reached a turning point- the ECB halved its QE programme on the 1st of January- and fixed rate interest products from all the main lenders- are trending upwards (slowly).

The Central Bank rules- are knocking back against secondhand buyers- with the tightening in the exemptions (other than for FTBs)- and the absolute number of landlords- is in freefall (with the exception of housing associations- who are proliferating like mushrooms- thanks to the remarkable tax advantages Revenue have seen fit to grant them).

Supply is up- possibly to 18,300-18,500 units in 2017- with a target of 22,000 units in 2018 (and the CIF are stating that we simply can't build anymore- as we don't have the labourers and other necessarily people working in the industry. If you talk to the people behind websites such as tradesmen.ie etc- they are all highlighting the absolute constraint in skilled building trades........

Salaries are rising- slowly- however, so is everything else- so affordability is becoming more and more an issue.........

Dublin prices- look likely to grow by 7-8% which is still remarkable- and I'd argue wholly unsustainable- whereas regional prices may grow by double this over the next 12 months- possibly by 15-16%

The downsides- particularly with rising interest rates- for the first time in a decade- are going to hurt Ireland more than any other EU country- and people don't realise this yet...........

We have a lot of hurt coming down the road- however, it may be another year or two before that realisation finally becomes the mainstream school of thought........
Morgage interest rates in Ireland will not go up, but significally down. Irish Banks are still charging 100% more than the EU average for your interest on morgages (and I really do not understand how they get away with this). Even if ECB put their interest rate up, I would argue that Irish Banks can not follow as they are already making insane profits. The backlash from the tracker morgage scandal will keep them in check and hopefully we will see better interest rates in the next few years. Money is cheap everywhere but Ireland at the moment, an interest rate of 1,8% would make housing a lot cheaper...this would benefit the society as a whole.
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