Dublin Bay North General Election 2019

gormdubhgorm · 07-02-2020 12:47am

jos28 wrote: »

Glad I read this thread before the big day. I had planned to give our only Green candidate a 2 or 3 - not after reading this. I respect his choice to be pro life but his views don't align with mine.

He has gone up a notch for me because of it. I believe he is a solicitor by training as well. Has interest in the Irish language as well. At least there is an honest about him. To be honest I was struggling which three to pick since Broughan and McGrath retired.

antimatterx · 08-02-2020 5:36pm

Just voted there now in Baldoiyle, it was very quiet.

1. Catherine Noone
2. Richard Bruton
3. Cian O'Callaghan
4. Aodhan O'Riordan

Ohmeha · 09-02-2020 12:01pm

Early tallies pointing towards seats for Mitchell, Bruton, Haughey, O'Riordan and a battle for the last seat between Healy and O'Callaghan - I'd guess Healy would be favourite on transfers/surpluses?

bren2001 · 09-02-2020 12:10pm

Ohmeha wrote: »

Early tallies pointing towards seats for Mitchell, Bruton, Haughey, O'Riordan and a battle for the last seat between Healy and O'Callaghan - I'd guess Healy would be favourite on transfers/surpluses?

Current tally is: Mitchell 29%, Bruton 15.3, O'Riordan 13.2, Haughey 11.1, Cian 7.2, Healy 6.7, Heeney 5.7, and Lyons 3.2.

Still early and Howth boxes to be opened which will benefit Cian and Healy. Very interesting to see where Mitchells transfers go. It's hard to know if the Greens will be transfer friendly just yet. I wouldn't rule out John Lyons just yet, he may be transfer friendly.

Phoebas · 09-02-2020 12:13pm

bren2001 wrote: »

Current tally is: Mitchell 29%, Bruton 15.3, O'Riordan 13.2, Haughey 11.1, Cian 7.2, Healy 6.7, Heeney 5.7, and Lyons 3.2.

Still early and Howth boxes to be opened which will benefit Cian and Healy. Very interesting to see where Mitchells transfers go. It's hard to know if the Greens will be transfer friendly just yet. I wouldn't rule out John Lyons just yet, he may be transfer friendly.

I'd expect any SF surplus to go towards the SDs rather than the greens.

bren2001 · 09-02-2020 12:28pm

Phoebas wrote: »

I'd expect any SF surplus to go towards the SDs rather than the greens.

Cian didn't do well when Michael Mac Donnacha was eliminated in 2016. I'm of the opinion that Cian doesn't fit the demographics for transfers. Outside of Mitchell, John Lyons picked up a good few of the transfers. It depends who the "new" SF voters are. That will be a fascinating watch.

RTE reckon Healy will get the 5th seat because the Howth boxes have not been opened. That's also Cians base so it will be interesting to see how they vote.

Lavinia · 09-02-2020 12:34pm

so far so good

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 12:38pm

rte liveblog for DBN https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020-constituencies/2020/0122/1110145-dublin-bay-north/

you can see results and transfer for 2016 here http://irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=231&electype=1&constitid=11

Pawwed Rig · 09-02-2020 12:42pm

Could have Bruton and Mitchell in on first count. The battleground definitely looks like Healy/O'Callaghan.

I would say Healy will get in as people will give Green a preference before SD where they do not know the candidates.

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 12:44pm

lyons on 3% https://twitter.com/Cathal_Haughey/status/1226459535499505664 and all that about not forgetting abou them.

Lavinia · 09-02-2020 12:45pm

Good to hear Bruton gives kudos to SF

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 12:55pm

Jayus, FF could get two seats I did not see that happening, the two H's Haughey and Heaney. Bruton in again, and Noone being hammered was fairly obvious. Bruton probably lost some votes because of Noone though.

Denise Mitchell walking it. I would love to see a breakdown of the areas where SF got the vote I assume it was all the working class areas?

O'Riordan only likely to get a seat because of the Broughan/McGrath gap in the market. And the last bit a battle

Mitchell
Haughey
Bruton
O'Riordan
And a scrap between Healy/O'Callaghan/Heaney for the last seat.

Heaney should get a chunk of transfers from Haughey? And O'Callaghan should get transfers from Labour. Healy would be lucky to get in as a result I would say?
Where would the SF transfers go to the fringe lefties or the SD, or Greens?
The last seat will be really interesting that is for sure.

odyssey06 · 09-02-2020 12:59pm

I doubt Haughey would have much over the quota to help Heney out so FF two seats highly unlikely.
Mitchell over quota transfers could be important.

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 1:02pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Denise Mitchell walking it. I would love to see a breakdown of the areas where SF got the vote I assume it was all the working class areas?

O'Riordan only likely to get a seat because of the Broughan/McGrath gap in the market. And the last bit a battle

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

Pawwed Rig · 09-02-2020 1:04pm

SF surplus could go anywhere other than FG. You would expect them to goto PBP in an election of well informed people but I reckon alot of the vote is a protest vote.

bren2001 · 09-02-2020 1:39pm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

SF surplus could go anywhere other than FG. You would expect them to goto PBP in an election of well informed people but I reckon alot of the vote is a protest vote.

John Lyons is ex-PBP. I think SF will transfer there, they typically transfer independent which suits him too.

Mitchells transfers could bring anyone into it. Obviously, Healy/Cian is the likely battle for seat 5. I'd love to see Cian get it.

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 1:41pm

expectationlost wrote: »

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

That is very impressive if SF can keep most of that vote going forward in the election. They will not need any new demographic if they wanted to get a second seat.
It makes a big change from Sean Haughey's stranglehold on Dublin North Central (barring 2011) even bringing in that Callelly fella with him, and Woods stranglehold on Dublin North East bringing into another FF'er with him.

Times have definitely changed.

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 1:43pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

That is very impressive if SF can keep most of that vote going forward in the election. They will not need any new demographic if they wanted to get a second seat.
It makes a big change from Sean Haughey's stranglehold on Dublin North Central (barring 2011) even bringing in that Callelly fella with him, and Woods stranglehold on Dublin North East bringing into another FF'er with him.

Times have definitely changed.

How different are SF to FF in practicality when in power?

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 1:45pm

bren2001 wrote: »

John Lyons is ex-PBP. I think SF will transfer there, they typically transfer independent which suits him too.

Mitchells transfers could bring anyone into it. Obviously, Healy/Cian is the likely battle for seat 5. I'd love to see Cian get it.

The two of them seem like decent auld salts, I wouldn't begrudge any of them getting it. They both have been putting the work in for years now. Will be sickner for who ever misses out.

Lavinia · 09-02-2020 1:48pm

Maria Delaney
@mhdelaney

Expected quota (on current votes tallied): 5,803 (50% boxes open) #dubbn
- Mitchell (SF) 10,364
- Bruton (FG) 5,248
- O Riordain (LAB) 4,190
- Haughey (FF) 3,448
- O’Callaghan (SD) 2,799
- Healy (GP) 2,383
- Heney (FF) 1,822

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 1:59pm

expectationlost wrote: »

How different are SF to FF in practicality.

In the very early history there was not much. Now there is a lot I would say! As SF have to play two different games in two different jurisdictions for a start.

One party (FF) riddled with a history of corruption, and the other (SF) with history of being fairly loose in thier approach to criminality and the rule of law. SCC courts, the disappeared, various cases related to thier republicanism.

But the SF demographic sees 'corruption' big banks, 'greedy' landlords (thier never is a nice landlord apparently) as more of moral stain on FF than any bloodstain on SF. Some of that demographic have fallen for the FFG line and assume FG behaved the same way as FF as a whole.

V

SF's attitudes to murder, criminality and so on - they have to talk from both sides of thier mouth when it comes to that, due to being the only all ireland party.

It is understandable since most of that SF demographic will not remember the troubles but were impacted by the crash. Disenfranchised and disillusioned the SF far left policies seem very appealing to them.

ShaneU · 09-02-2020 1:59pm

Thank God Michael Burke isn't on that list. Eirexit me hole

antimatterx · 09-02-2020 2:22pm

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 2:41pm

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

In the very early history there was not much. Now there is a lot I would say! As SF have to play two different games in two different jurisdictions for a start.

One party (FF) riddled with a history of corruption, and the other (SF) with history of being fairly loose in thier approach to criminality and the rule of law. SCC courts, the disappeared, various cases related to thier republicanism.

But the SF demographic sees 'corruption' big banks, 'greedy' landlords (thier never is a nice landlord apparently) as more of moral stain on FF than any bloodstain on SF. Some of that demographic have fallen for the FFG line and assume FG behaved the same way as FF as a whole.

V

SF's attitudes to murder, criminality and so on - they have to talk from both sides of thier mouth when it comes to that, due to being the only all ireland party.

It is understandable since most of that SF demographic will not remember the troubles but were impacted by the crash. Disenfranchised and disillusioned the SF far left policies seem very appealing to them.

so they both don't follow laws how far left an SF be in power? are they just like FF they pretend to be left.

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 2:48pm

antimatterx wrote: »

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

I would say two chances of that fat chance and no chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Noone

I voted for Bruton no1 (first time FG voter) and there was no way I was even going to give Noone any sort of preference. She got stitched up, but being fast and loose with comments is dodgy for politician. Even on boards you might get a warning for it.
She dug a deeper hole for herself when using the word n!gger, as an example of words that can be used out of context when caught in her autism controversy.

Seems out of her depth to be considered a public rep in DE

I wouldn't feel too sorry for her she has a nice house with a sea view in Howth. And a cushy number in the Seanad.
She is from Mayo originally anyway - sure aren't they well known for shooting themselves in the foot in GAA context?

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 2:53pm

expectationlost wrote: »

so they both don't follow laws how far left an SF be in power? are they just like FF they pretend to be left.

SF are definitely left they always have been, 'the socialist 32 county republic' is the aspirational dream for them. FF used to go for the populist policies when it suited. But for SF it is a clear ideology with SF party members referring to each other as 'comrade' and so on.

bren2001 · 09-02-2020 2:56pm

antimatterx wrote: »

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

Bruton won't have a large surplus. She's too far behind. It's over for her, she firmly put the nails in he town coffin.

I personally don't understand how anyone who could put her #1 on their ballot. She showed how utterly incompetent she is in this campaign. She's well out of her depth. Her career is over.

FG will need to find another long term successor to Bruton or risk someone like Aodhan raking up the Clontarf vote.

expectationlost · 09-02-2020 2:59pm

expectationlost wrote: »

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

in a way Lab and SD are the same, maybe a Green would give more variety of representation.

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 3:05pm

bren2001 wrote: »

Bruton won't have a large surplus. She's too far behind. It's over for her, she firmly put the nails in he town coffin.

I personally don't understand how anyone who could put her #1 on their ballot. She showed how utterly incompetent she is in this campaign. She's well out of her depth. Her career is over.

FG will need to find another long term successor to Bruton or risk someone like Aodhan raking up the Clontarf vote.

I don't understand how FG ended up with someone so 'eejity' as Noone.
They had her running in Dublin West the last election - not much hope demographics wise there for a start.

You would think all FG needed was a clean cut, middle class businessman/businesswoman type - local worked with the community. Someone who thinks before they speak. But yet they ended up with Noone.

I know FG lost Terrance Flanagan to Renua and then he did a u-turn back with FG, but wouldn't you think they could find a half decent replacement somewhere?

gormdubhgorm · 09-02-2020 3:07pm

expectationlost wrote: »

in a way Lab and SD are the same, maybe a Green would give more variety or representation.

I think they basically are the same, just different colours splitting the vote.

Dublin Bay North General Election 2019

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