Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
12-01-2020, 18:22   #1
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
General Election Louth Constituency

Louth is a five seater and stretches from the border down to and including parts of Meath down to Laytown.


Current TDs

Gerry Adams SF
Fergus O' Dowd FG
Imelda Munster- SF
Peter Fitzpatrick FG
Declan Breathnach FF

Conventional wisdom on the constituency is that there is a Dundalk and a Drogheda TD. Another feature is that it requires careful vote management to get 2 seats. The two points of interest here are the retirement of Adams and the departure of Fitzpatrick from FG. On the basis of that O'Dowd and Breathnach should be returned and the interest will be in the final three seats.

FG have selected Cllr John McGahon as a running mate and he will go head to head against Fitzpatrick in Dundalk and clearly after the the young vote at under 30. He is is under a bit of a cloud with a court case still pending for assault AFAIK.

FF have gone for Anthony Moore, who's based in the South Louth/East Meath, to run alongside Breathnach.

Finally SF have gone for Dundalk man Cllr Ruairi O'Murchu to replace Adams.

Add in the usual run from the ever-present Green Mark Deary and of course Ged Nash with some likely indos/PBP and that's runners and riders.

The outcome is likely to leave most seats unchanged assuming the vote management is done properly.

O'Dowd, Breathnach and probably Munster (as the incumbent) should be returned. FG would feel confident of getting the second TD, given the support Fitzpatrick has needed. I don't believe Fitzpatrick as an independent can get re-elected as it's really a FG vote and it was O'Dowd vote managemnt that saw him elected twice.

As SF don't have that personal Adams vote their vote management will be absolutely crucial and they may clinch that fourth/last seat.

So FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 and SF/FF/Lab/FG fighting for those final two seats. My feeling at this point is no change in seats for parties so FG & SF for those seats but who knows how FF/Lab will fare in that battle.
is_that_so is offline  
Advertisement
13-01-2020, 10:10   #2
Pighead
sucks at stalking
 
Pighead's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 11,950
Is there a full list of candidates available anywhere yet?
Pighead is offline  
Thanks from:
13-01-2020, 10:19   #3
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,090
It's not a very inspiring group of candidates.

McGahon is being very active in my area in the last few months, while he hasn't knocked on my door I have seen him a few times delivering leaflets at the weekends. He's also had some leaflets delivered with the Dundalk Advertiser.

I wouldn't like to see him get in, I don't think he's done anything of note on the council and if he wasn't a McGahon he wouldn't be on the ticket.
Salary Negotiator is offline  
13-01-2020, 10:22   #4
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pighead View Post
Is there a full list of candidates available anywhere yet?
Louthcoco site will eventually have it, Check out Adrian Kavanagh for now as most parties have already selected people.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/...-constituency/
is_that_so is offline  
Thanks from:
13-01-2020, 10:24   #5
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salary Negotiator View Post
It's not a very inspiring group of candidates.

McGahon is being very active in my area in the last few months, while he hasn't knocked on my door I have seen him a few times delivering leaflets at the weekends. He's also had some leaflets delivered with the Dundalk Advertiser.

I wouldn't like to see him get in, I don't think he's done anything of note on the council and if he wasn't a McGahon he wouldn't be on the ticket.
Don't know him but he seems to have a bit more life to him than Fitzpatrick. Whoever they pick is in with a decent chance as O'Dowd is a good reliable vote getter and their vote management has been very sharp.
is_that_so is offline  
Advertisement
13-01-2020, 10:32   #6
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by is_that_so View Post
Don't know him but he seems to have a bit more life to him than Fitzpatrick. Whoever they pick is in with a decent chance as O'Dowd is a good reliable vote getter and their vote management has been very sharp.
He has good coaching behind him.
Salary Negotiator is offline  
Thanks from:
13-01-2020, 10:44   #7
tayto lover
Registered User
 
tayto lover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 37,505
Fitzer will have a lot of backing from the GAA and athletics people.
He is now the County Chairman of the GAA and also a big charity run organizer.

Mc Gahon seems like a bit of a loose cannon but will get the FG vote in north Louth no doubt. Always gives the impression of being busy however I don’t see much of anything about him.

O’ Morchu will do alright but the SF vote, in Dundalk anyway, is not what it used to be imo. He will struggle.

Breathnach should easily make it as will O’Dowda and Munster in south Louth.
tayto lover is offline  
13-01-2020, 11:03   #8
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
Quote:
Originally Posted by tayto lover View Post
Fitzer will have a lot of backing from the GAA and athletics people.
He is now the County Chairman of the GAA and also a big charity run organizer.

Mc Gahon seems like a bit of a loose cannon but will get the FG vote in north Louth no doubt. Always gives the impression of being busy however I don’t see much of anything about him.

O’ Morchu will do alright but the SF vote, in Dundalk anyway, is not what it used to be imo. He will struggle.

Breathnach should easily make it as will O’Dowda and Munster in south Louth.
Fitzer always struggled to get in and a lot of his vote would be a FG vote, which will go back to them. He may even help with transfers.
is_that_so is offline  
Thanks from:
13-01-2020, 11:29   #9
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 28,224
Fitzer hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.

Last edited by Srameen; 13-01-2020 at 12:19.
Arya Fresh Plantation is offline  
Advertisement
13-01-2020, 11:54   #10
tayto lover
Registered User
 
tayto lover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 37,505
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Fresh Plantation View Post
Fitter hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.
Maybe but many FG voters, I’m not one, are unhappy with the antics of McG.
They are the law and order party after all.
tayto lover is offline  
13-01-2020, 12:34   #11
PGE1970
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 573
I think Ged Nash has a real chance of getting back in.

Adams gone could affect the SF vote and Munster rode in on his coat tails previously. I'm not sure that she is highly thought of in Drogheda so she might struggle. O'Dowd will get back in but the other Drogheda candidate, Anthony Moore, doesnt have a huge profile either.

Ged is well liked and is a hard worker. He'll barely get a vote north of Monasterboice but might have enough support in Drogheda to make the last seat.
PGE1970 is offline  
13-01-2020, 12:49   #12
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
Quote:
Originally Posted by PGE1970 View Post
I think Ged Nash has a real chance of getting back in.

Adams gone could affect the SF vote and Munster rode in on his coat tails previously. I'm not sure that she is highly thought of in Drogheda so she might struggle. O'Dowd will get back in but the other Drogheda candidate, Anthony Moore, doesnt have a huge profile either.

Ged is well liked and is a hard worker. He'll barely get a vote north of Monasterboice but might have enough support in Drogheda to make the last seat.
It was a good run for PBP that kept Nash out the last time. I'd agree with the rest of it. My OP suggests 2 SF but really think it will be FG 2, FF 1, SF 1 and Lab 1.
is_that_so is offline  
13-01-2020, 12:52   #13
is_that_so
Registered User
 
is_that_so's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 14,938
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Fresh Plantation View Post
Fitzer hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.
Yeah. In 2011 apparently O'Dowd spent the last two weeks encouraging people to vote number 1 for him. In 2016 his transfers pulled him over the line, barely.
is_that_so is offline  
13-01-2020, 13:12   #14
PGE1970
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 573
Quote:
Originally Posted by is_that_so View Post
It was a good run for PBP that kept Nash out the last time. I'd agree with the rest of it. My OP suggests 2 SF but really think it will be FG 2, FF 1, SF 1 and Lab 1.
Its hard to disagree with that. I think SF need to be careful. If one seat is their more likely outcome (not that they will acknowledge this), they could cannibalise their own vote with their two candidates.

Michelle Hall did very well in the local elections for Labour in Termonfeckin/Clogherhead and will campaign well for Ged Nash.

I agree that O'Dowd and Breathnach are likely shoe-ins. I think a second FG seat is likely in Dundalk. The rest will be a dog-fight!
PGE1970 is offline  
13-01-2020, 22:14   #15
10green bottles
Registered User
 
10green bottles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,891
Send a message via ICQ to 10green bottles Send a message via AIM to 10green bottles Send a message via Yahoo to 10green bottles
Anyone think that in light of the recent upsurge criminal behaviour in the Drogheda area that law and order and party policies connected
to it could become a BIG issue in an upcoming election?
10green bottles is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet