Louth is a five seater and stretches from the border down to and including parts of Meath down to Laytown.
Gerry Adams SF
Fergus O' Dowd FG
Imelda Munster- SF
Peter Fitzpatrick FG
Declan Breathnach FF
Conventional wisdom on the constituency is that there is a Dundalk and a Drogheda TD. Another feature is that it requires careful vote management to get 2 seats. The two points of interest here are the retirement of Adams and the departure of Fitzpatrick from FG. On the basis of that O'Dowd and Breathnach should be returned and the interest will be in the final three seats.
FG have selected Cllr John McGahon as a running mate and he will go head to head against Fitzpatrick in Dundalk and clearly after the the young vote at under 30. He is is under a bit of a cloud with a court case still pending for assault AFAIK.
FF have gone for Anthony Moore, who's based in the South Louth/East Meath, to run alongside Breathnach.
Finally SF have gone for Dundalk man Cllr Ruairi O'Murchu to replace Adams.
Add in the usual run from the ever-present Green Mark Deary and of course Ged Nash with some likely indos/PBP and that's runners and riders.
The outcome is likely to leave most seats unchanged assuming the vote management is done properly.
O'Dowd, Breathnach and probably Munster (as the incumbent) should be returned. FG would feel confident of getting the second TD, given the support Fitzpatrick has needed. I don't believe Fitzpatrick as an independent can get re-elected as it's really a FG vote and it was O'Dowd vote managemnt that saw him elected twice.
As SF don't have that personal Adams vote their vote management will be absolutely crucial and they may clinch that fourth/last seat.
So FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 and SF/FF/Lab/FG fighting for those final two seats. My feeling at this point is no change in seats for parties so FG & SF for those seats but who knows how FF/Lab will fare in that battle.